Random Breath Testing in Australia: Is there an Optimum Level of Intensity?

Background: Random Breath Testing (RBT) is the main drink driving law enforcement tool used throughout Australia. International comparative research considers Australia to have the most successful RBT program compared to other countries in terms of crash reductions (Erke, Goldenbeld, & Vaa, 2009). This success is attributed to the programs high intensity (Erke et al., 2009). Our review of the extant literature suggests that there is no research evidence that indicates an optimal level of alcohol breath testing. That is, we suggest that no research exists to guide policy regarding whether or not there is a point at which alcohol related crashes reach a point of diminishing returns as a result of either saturated or targeted RBT testing. Aims: In this paper we first provide an examination of RBTs and alcohol related crashes across Australian jurisdictions. We then address the question of whether or not an optimal level of random breath testing exists by examining the relationship between the number of RBTs conducted and the occurrence of alcohol-related crashes over time, across all Australian states. Method: To examine the association between RBT rates and alcohol related crashes and to assess whether an optimal ratio of RBT tests per licenced drivers can be determined we draw on three administrative data sources form each jurisdiction. Where possible data collected spans January 1st 2000 to September 30th 2012. The RBT administrative dataset includes the number of Random Breath Tests (RBTs) conducted per month. The traffic crash administrative dataset contains aggregated monthly count of the number of traffic crashes where an individual’s recorded BAC reaches or exceeds 0.05g/ml of alcohol in blood. The licenced driver data were the monthly number of registered licenced drivers spanning January 2000 to December 2011. Results: The data highlights that the Australian story does not reflective of all States and territories. The stable RBT to licenced driver ratio in Queensland (of 1:1) suggests a stable rate of alcohol related crash data of 5.5 per 100,000 licenced drivers. Yet, in South Australia were a relative stable rate of RBT to licenced driver ratio of 1:2 is maintained the rate of alcohol related traffic crashes is substantially less at 3.7 per 100,000. We use joinpoint regression techniques and varying regression models to fit the data and compare the different patterns between jurisdictions. Discussion: The results of this study provide an updated review and evaluation of RBTs conducted in Australia and examines the association between RBTs and alcohol related traffic crashes. We also present an evidence base to guide policy decisions for RBT operations.

Projections of the future path of the gender wage gap in Great Britain

Purpose – The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Great Britain up to 2031. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis utilises the British Household Panel Study Wave F together with Office for National Statistics (ONS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ONS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap. Findings – The analysis suggests that gender wage convergence will be slow, with little female progress by 2031 unless there is a large rise in returns to female experience. Originality/value – The paper has projected the pattern of male and female skill acquisition together with the associated trend in wages up to 2031.

Self excitation in equity indices

A "self-exciting" market is one in which the probability of observing a crash increases in response to the occurrence of a crash. It essentially describes cases where the initial crash serves to weaken the system to some extent, making subsequent crashes more likely. This thesis investigates if equity markets possess this property. A self-exciting extension of the well-known jump-based Bates (1996) model is used as the workhorse model for this thesis, and a particle-filtering algorithm is used to facilitate estimation by means of maximum likelihood. The estimation method is developed so that option prices are easily included in the dataset, leading to higher quality estimates. Equilibrium arguments are used to price the risks associated with the time-varying crash probability, and in turn to motivate a risk-neutral system for use in option pricing. The option pricing function for the model is obtained via the application of widely-used Fourier techniques. An application to S&P500 index returns and a panel of S&P500 index option prices reveals evidence of self excitation.

Are target date funds the easy bake option?

Target date funds provide a simple, automated approach to retirement savings in defined contribution plans. The passing of the Pension Protection Act of 2006 has seen an increase in the popularity of these funds in the United States, becoming the default option for many plans. However, recent research findings have challenged the easy bake or ‘set-and-forget’ nature of target date funds. This study explores some of the critical design features of target date funds (which shifts an individual’s asset allocation from growth to defensive assets following a pre-set glidepath) against a simple balanced (or target risk) fund design. Using both time-weighted and dollar-weighted returns, our results suggest that there is more to achieving successful retirement outcomes than the investor simply selecting a proposed year of retirement. Our findings can perhaps be summarized by Einstein’s famous epithet, that in the murky world of retirement product design, everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.

Enhancing people capabilities for the promotion of sustainability in facilities management practices

Sustainability has become an important principle to be pursued throughout the life-cycles of project development. Facility managers are in a commanding position to maximise the potential of sustainability. Sustainability endeavours in facility management (FM) practices will not only contribute to reducing energy consumption and waste, but will also help increase organisational productivity, financial returns and standing in the community. At the forefront of sustainable practices, FM professionals can exercise a great deal of influence through operational and strategic management and they should be empowered with the necessary knowledge and capabilities. However, literature studies suggest that there is a gap between the level of awareness and knowledge and the necessary skills required to promote sustainability endeavours in the FM profession. Therefore, it is worthwhile to reflect on people capability issues since it is considered as the key enabler in managing the sustainability agenda as well as being central to the improvement of competency and innovation in an organization. This paper aims to identify the critical factors for enhancing people capabilities in promoting the sustainability agenda in the FM sector. To achieve this objective, a total of 60 factors were identified through a comprehensive literature review and then a questionnaire survey with 52 respondents was conducted to collect the perceived importance of these factors. The survey analysis revealed 23 critical factors as significantly important. These critical factors will serve as the basis for the establishment of a mechanism to equip facility managers with the right knowledge, to continue education and training and to develop new mind-sets to enhance the implementation of sustainability measures in FM practices.

The multi-platform user engagement and data visualisation tool

The ability to identify and assess user engagement with transmedia productions is vital to the success of individual projects and the sustainability of this mode of media production as a whole. It is essential that industry players have access to tools and methodologies that offer the most complete and accurate picture of how audiences/users engage with their productions and which assets generate the most valuable returns of investment. Drawing upon research conducted with Hoodlum Entertainment, a Brisbane-based transmedia producer, this project involved an initial assessment of the way engagement tends to be understood, why standard web analytics tools are ill-suited to measuring it, how a customised tool could offer solutions, and why this question of measuring engagement is so vital to the future of transmedia as a sustainable industry. Working with data provided by Hoodlum Entertainment and Foxtel Marketing, the outcome of the study was a prototype for a custom data visualisation tool that allowed access, manipulation and presentation of user engagement data, both historic and predictive. The prototyped interfaces demonstrate how the visualization tool would collect and organise data specific to multiplatform projects by aggregating data across a number of platform reporting tools. Such a tool is designed to encompass not only platforms developed by the transmedia producer but also sites developed by fans. This visualisation tool accounted for multiplatform experience projects whose top level is comprised of people, platforms and content. People include characters, actors, audience, distributors and creators. Platforms include television, Facebook and other relevant social networks, literature, cinema and other media that might be included in the multiplatform experience. Content refers to discreet media texts employed within the platform, such as tweet, a You Tube video, a Facebook post, an email, a television episode, etc. Core content is produced by the creators’ multiplatform experiences to advance the narrative, while complimentary content generated by audience members offers further contributions to the experience. Equally important is the timing with which the components of the experience are introduced and how they interact with and impact upon each other. Being able to combine, filter and sort these elements in multiple ways we can better understand the value of certain components of a project. It also offers insights into the relationship between the timing of the release of components and user activity associated with them, which further highlights the efficacy (or, indeed, failure) of assets as catalysts for engagement. In collaboration with Hoodlum we have developed a number of design scenarios experimenting with the ways in which data can be visualised and manipulated to tell a more refined story about the value of user engagement with certain project components and activities. This experimentation will serve as the basis for future research.

Governance challenges in the global games industry

Current governance challenges facing the global games industry are heavily dominated by online games. Whilst much academic and industry attention has been afforded to Virtual Worlds, the more pressing contemporary challenges may arise in casual games, especially when found on social networks. As authorities are faced with an increasing volume of disputes between participants and platform operators, the likelihood of external regulation increases, and the role that such regulation would have on the industry – both internationally and within specific regions – is unclear. Kelly (2010) argues that “when you strip away the graphics of these [social] games, what you are left with is simply a button [...] You push it and then the game returns a value of either Win or Lose”. He notes that while “every game developer wants their game to be played, preferably addictively, because it’s so awesome”, these mechanics lead not to “addiction of engagement through awesomeness” but “the addiction of compulsiveness”, surmising that “the reality is that they’ve actually sort-of kind-of half-intentionally built a virtual slot machine industry”. If such core elements of social game design are questioned, this gives cause to question the real-money options to circumvent them. With players able to purchase virtual currency and speed the completion of tasks, the money invested by the 20% purchasing in-game benefits (Zainwinger, 2012) may well be the result of compulsion. The decision by the Japanese Consumer Affairs agency to investigate the ‘Kompu Gacha’ mechanic (in which players are rewarded for completing a set of items obtained through purchasing virtual goods such as mystery boxes), and the resultant verdict that such mechanics should be regulated through gambling legislation, demonstrates that politicians are beginning to look at the mechanics deployed in these environments. Purewal (2012) states that “there’s a reasonable argument that complete gacha would be regulated under gambling law under at least some (if not most) Western jurisdictions”. This paper explores the governance challenged within these games and platforms, their role in the global industry, and current practice amongst developers in the Australian and United States to address such challenges.

Making mangoes move

A landscape of mangoes most likely brings to mind a place in a tropical location. By the end of the nineteenth century that place could have been located on any continent in the world. Mangoes were found in geographic locations; in scientific institutions; as crop plants; and as a backyard trees. Here I trace the movement of mangoes Mangifera indica Linn., focusing on the transnational links formed through colonial botanic gardens in Australia. Botanic gardens were largely understood through their work in establishing economically successful plantation crops, such as sugar and tea. Mangoes were not a success crop of the age of botanic imperialism. Instead, mangoes were simply one species among the millions of plants that botanic gardens moved in addition to these well known commercial crops. Colonial science moved plants for a myriad of other types of reasons, for ornament, for curiosity, for lesser commercial purposes and for pure science. In each site the mango emerged, the discourses and technologies that traveled with it changed according to local needs. Indeed, rather than finding mangoes located in one place, tracing their movement demonstrates that this was an extended landscape connecting these things across time and space...

Optimising the length of Random Breath Tests : results from the Queensland Community Engagement Trial

Research suggests that the length and quality of police-citizen encounters affect policing outcomes. The Koper Curve, for example, shows that the optimal length for police presence in hot spots is between 14 and 15 minutes, with diminishing returns observed thereafter. Our study, using data from the Queensland Community Engagement Trial (QCET), examines the impact of encounter length on citizen perceptions of police performance. QCET involved a randomised field trial, where 60 random breath test (RBT) traffic stop operations were randomly allocated to an experimental condition involving a procedurally just encounter or a business-as-usual control condition. Our results show that the optimal length of time for procedurally just encounters during RBT traffic stops is just less than 2 minutes. We show, therefore, that it is important to encourage and facilitate positive police–citizen encounters during RBTat traffic stops, while ensuring that the length of these interactions does not pass a point of diminishing returns.

Accounting for forests in Fiji : the experience of Future Forests (Fiji) Limited

"in a world which is experiencing unprecedented deforestation and widespread global environmental threats there is something intuitively right about planting a tree" (Future Forests (Fiji) Limited) The above quote demonstrates that even in the wake of global environmental crisis that hope still remains and that humans can still control their destiny. This opportunity to effect positive environmental change is one of the main aims of the South Pacific Stock Exchange’s (SPSE) most recent publicly listed company: Future Forest (Fiji) Limited. Incorporated in 2004 and listed on SPSE in 2011, the company is Fiji’s first large-scale commercial hardwood forest plantation and nursery. Future Forest (FF) is the only company listed on the SPSE with biological assets or “living assets.” The accounting standard for biological assets is IAS 41: Agriculture. This standard prescribes the use of fair value as the basis of valuation. While a more relevant method of valuation, the application of fair value accounting can be more costly and burdensome for companies in developing economies (White 2008). In line with the journal’s theme of agriculture, this article explores the issues, challenges and potential benefits involved in applying fair value accounting for biological assets in a developing economy such as Fiji using the case of Future Forest (Fiji) Limited.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour

The past decade has seen an increase in the number of significant natural disasters that have caused considerable loss of life as well as damage to all property markets in the affected areas. In many cases, these natural disasters have not only caused significant property damage, but in numerous cases, have resulted in the total destruction of the property in the location. With these disasters attracting considerable media attention, the public are more aware of where these affected property markets are, as well as the overall damage to properties that have been damaged or destroyed. This heightened level of awareness has to have an impact on the participants in the property market, whether a developer, vendor seller or investor. To assess this issue, a residential property market that has been affected by a significant natural disaster over the past 2 years has been analysed to determine the overall impact of the disaster on buyer, renter and vendor behaviour, as well as prices in these residential markets. This paper is based on data from the Brisbane flood in January 2011. This natural disaster resulted in loss of life and partial and total devastation of considerable residential property sectors. Data for the research have been based on the residential sales and rental listings for each week of the study period to determine the level of activity in the specific property sectors, and these are also compared to the median house prices for the various suburbs for the same period based on suburbs being either flood affected or flood free. As there are 48 suburbs included in the study, it has been possible to group these suburbs on a socio-economic basis to determine possible differences due to location and value. Data were accessed from realestate.com.au, a free real estate site that provides details of current rental and sales listings on a suburb basis, RP Data a commercial property sales database and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The paper found that sales listings fell immediately after the flood in the affected areas, but there was no corresponding fall or increase in sales listings in the flood-free suburbs. There was a significant decrease in the number of rental listings follow the flood as affected parties sought alternate accommodation. The greatest fall in rental listings was in areas close to the flood-affected suburbs indicating the desire to be close to the flooded property during the repair period.

Security evaluation of Rakaposhi Stream Cipher

Rakaposhi is a synchronous stream cipher, which uses three main components: a non-linear feedback shift register (NLFSR), a dynamic linear feedback shift register (DLFSR) and a non-linear filtering function (NLF). NLFSR consists of 128 bits and is initialised by the secret key K. DLFSR holds 192 bits and is initialised by an initial vector (IV). NLF takes 8-bit inputs and returns a single output bit. The work identifies weaknesses and properties of the cipher. The main observation is that the initialisation procedure has the so-called sliding property. The property can be used to launch distinguishing and key recovery attacks. The distinguisher needs four observations of the related (K,IV) pairs. The key recovery algorithm allows to discover the secret key K after observing 29 pairs of (K,IV). Based on the proposed related-key attack, the number of related (K,IV) pairs is 2(128 + 192)/4 pairs. Further the cipher is studied when the registers enter short cycles. When NLFSR is set to all ones, then the cipher degenerates to a linear feedback shift register with a non-linear filter. Consequently, the initial state (and Secret Key and IV) can be recovered with complexity 263.87. If DLFSR is set to all zeros, then NLF reduces to a low non-linearity filter function. As the result, the cipher is insecure allowing the adversary to distinguish it from a random cipher after 217 observations of keystream bits. There is also the key recovery algorithm that allows to find the secret key with complexity 2 54.

Developing sustainable fish farming in the Western Pacific : a viewpoint on potential reasons for why many attempts failed

Capture fisheries and aquaculture have been a major source of food and providers of economic benefits to many communities around the world for a very long time. While the history of aquaculture or fish farming can be traced back for more than 2000 years in some corners of the globe, notably in China, Japan and the Mediterranean, this is not true everywhere, where in general, fish farming is a relatively new industry. Rapid human population growth and increasing urbanisation over the last 20 to 40 years has meant that while fish consumption has doubled globally, returns from capture fisheries have remained static or have declined due to overexploitation and rising pollution levels, with some fisheries either closing or becoming economically unviable. Data from studies suggest that this trend is unlikely to be reversed unless appropriate fisheries management allows depleted wild stocks to rebuild. This has occurred during a time when demand for fish products has grown, in part due to improved purchasing power in some developing countries and changing dietary habits where fish are now considered to have a positive impact on health. Based on the projected population growth over the next two decades, Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates that at least an additional 40 million tonnes of aquatic food will be required to maintain the current per capita consumption (FAO 2006).

The Performance Nexus - A framework for improving energy efficiency in existing commercial buildings by considering a whole-of-building approach

Efforts to reduce carbon emissions in the buildings sector have been focused on encouraging green design, construction and building operation; however, the business case is not very compelling if considering the energy cost savings alone. In recent years green building has been driven by a sense that it will improve the productivity of occupants,i something with much greater economic returns than energy savings. Reducing energy demand in green commercial buildings in a way that encourages greater productivity is not yet well understood as it involves a set of complex and interdependent factors. This paper outlines an investigation into these factors and focuses on better understanding the performance of and interaction between: design elements, internal environmental quality, occupant experience, tenant/leasing agreements, and building regulation and management. In doing so the paper presents a framework for improving energy efficiency in existing commercial buildings by considering a range of interconnected and synergistic elements.