A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

Evaluating the efficacy of planktonic foraminifer calcite and 18O data for sea surface temperature reconstruction for the Late Miocene

This study examines the efficacy of published δ18O data from the calcite of Late Miocene surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells, for sea surface temperature estimates for the pre-Quaternary. The data are from 33 Late Miocene (Messinian) marine sites from a modern latitudinal gradient of 64°N to 48°S. They give estimates of SSTs in the tropics/subtropics (to 30°N and S) that are mostly cooler than present. Possible causes of this temperature discrepancy are ecological factors (e.g. calcification of shells at levels below the ocean mixed layer), taphonomic effects (e.g. diagenesis or dissolution), inaccurate estimation of Late Miocene seawater oxygen isotope composition, or a real Late Miocene cool climate. The scale of apparent cooling in the tropics suggests that the SST signal of the foraminifer calcite has been reset, at least in part, by early diagenetic calcite with higher δ18O, formed in the foraminifer shells in cool sea bottom pore waters, probably coupled with the effects of calcite formed below the mixed layer during the life of the foraminifera. This hypothesis is supported by the markedly cooler SST estimates from low latitudes—in some cases more than 9 °C cooler than present—where the gradients of temperature and the δ18O composition of seawater between sea surface and sea bottom are most marked, and where ocean surface stratification is high. At higher latitudes, particularly N and S of 30°, the temperature signal is still cooler, though maximum temperature estimates overlap with modern SSTs N and S of 40°. Comparison of SST estimates for the Late Miocene from alkenone unsaturation analysis from the eastern tropical Atlantic at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 958—which suggest a warmer sea surface by 2–4 °C, with estimates from oxygen isotopes at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 366 and ODP Site 959, indicating cooler than present SSTs, also suggest a significant impact on the δ18O signal. Nevertheless, much of the original SST variation is clearly preserved in the primary calcite formed in the mixed layer, and records secular and temporal oceanographic changes at the sea surface, such as movement of the Antarctic Polar Front in the Southern Ocean. Cooler SSTs in the tropics and sub-tropics are also consistent with the Late Miocene latitude reduction in the coral reef belt and with interrupted reef growth on the Queensland Plateau of eastern Australia, though it is not possible to quantify absolute SSTs with the existing oxygen isotope data. Reconstruction of an accurate global SST dataset for Neogene time-slices from the existing published DSDP/ODP isotope data, for use in general circulation models, may require a detailed re-assessment of taphonomy at many sites.

Promoting sustainability: Efficacy and adoption of tobacco-based insecticides in Nigeria

The promotion of technologies seen to be aiding in the attainment of agricultural sustainability has been Popular amongst Northern-based development donors for many years. One of these, botanical insecticides (e.g., those based on neem, Pyrethrum and tobacco) have been a particular favorite as they are equated with being 'natural' and hence less damaging to human health and the environment. This paper describes the outcome of interactions between one non-government organisation (NGO), the Diocesan Development Services (DDS), based in Kogi State, Nigeria, and a major development donor based in Europe that led to the establishment of a programme designed to promote the Virtues of a tobacco-based insecticide to small-scale farmers. The Tobacco Insecticide Programme (TIP) began in the late 1980s and ended in 200 1, absorbing significant quantities of resource in the process. TIP began with exploratory investigations of efficacy on the DDS seed multiplication farm followed by stages of researcher-managed and farmer-managed on-farm trials. A survey in 2002 assessed adoption of the technology by farmers. While yield benefits from using the insecticide were nearly always positive and statistically significant relative to an untreated control, they were not as good as commercial insecticides. However, adoption of the tobacco insecticide by local farmers was poor. The paper discusses the reasons for poor adoption, including relative benefits in gross margin, and uses the TIP example to explore the differing power relationships that exist between donors, their field partners and farmers. (C) 2004 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the efficacy of planktonic foraminifer calcite and 18O data for sea surface temperature reconstruction for the Late Miocene

This study examines the efficacy of published δ18O data from the calcite of Late Miocene surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells, for sea surface temperature estimates for the pre-Quaternary. The data are from 33 Late Miocene (Messinian) marine sites from a modern latitudinal gradient of 64°N to 48°S. They give estimates of SSTs in the tropics/subtropics (to 30°N and S) that are mostly cooler than present. Possible causes of this temperature discrepancy are ecological factors (e.g. calcification of shells at levels below the ocean mixed layer), taphonomic effects (e.g. diagenesis or dissolution), inaccurate estimation of Late Miocene seawater oxygen isotope composition, or a real Late Miocene cool climate. The scale of apparent cooling in the tropics suggests that the SST signal of the foraminifer calcite has been reset, at least in part, by early diagenetic calcite with higher δ18O, formed in the foraminifer shells in cool sea bottom pore waters, probably coupled with the effects of calcite formed below the mixed layer during the life of the foraminifera. This hypothesis is supported by the markedly cooler SST estimates from low latitudes—in some cases more than 9 °C cooler than present—where the gradients of temperature and the δ18O composition of seawater between sea surface and sea bottom are most marked, and where ocean surface stratification is high. At higher latitudes, particularly N and S of 30°, the temperature signal is still cooler, though maximum temperature estimates overlap with modern SSTs N and S of 40°. Comparison of SST estimates for the Late Miocene from alkenone unsaturation analysis from the eastern tropical Atlantic at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 958—which suggest a warmer sea surface by 2–4 °C, with estimates from oxygen isotopes at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 366 and ODP Site 959, indicating cooler than present SSTs, also suggest a significant impact on the δ18O signal. Nevertheless, much of the original SST variation is clearly preserved in the primary calcite formed in the mixed layer, and records secular and temporal oceanographic changes at the sea surface, such as movement of the Antarctic Polar Front in the Southern Ocean. Cooler SSTs in the tropics and sub-tropics are also consistent with the Late Miocene latitude reduction in the coral reef belt and with interrupted reef growth on the Queensland Plateau of eastern Australia, though it is not possible to quantify absolute SSTs with the existing oxygen isotope data. Reconstruction of an accurate global SST dataset for Neogene time-slices from the existing published DSDP/ODP isotope data, for use in general circulation models, may require a detailed re-assessment of taphonomy at many sites.

Validating ECMWF forecasts for the occurrence of ice supersaturation using visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements over England

One of the largest uncertainties in quantifying the impact of aviation on climate concerns the formation and spreading of persistent contrails. The inclusion of a cloud scheme that allows for ice supersaturation into the integrated forecast system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can be a useful tool to help reduce these uncertainties. This study evaluates the quality of the ECMWF forecasts with respect to ice super saturation in the upper troposphere by comparing them to visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements of ice supersaturation over England. The performance of 1- to 3-day forecasts is compared including also the vertical accuracy of the supersaturation forecasts. It is found that the operational forecasts from the ECMWF are able to predict cold ice supersaturated regions very well. For the best cases Peirce skill scores of 0.7 are obtained, with hit rates at times exceeding 80% and false-alarm rates below 20%. Results are very similar for comparisons with visual observations and radiosonde measurements, the latter providing the better statistical significance.

Efficacy of neem (Azadirachta indica) formulations on biology of root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne javanica) on tomato

Second stage juveniles of Meloidogyne javanica were exposed to aqueous extracts of neem crude formulations (leaves and cake) at 10%, 5%, and 2.5% w/v and a refined product, Aza at 0.1% w/v. The 10% extracts of neem leaf and cake caused 83% and 85% immobility and 35% and 28% mortality, respectively. Aza caused neither immobility or mortality of juveniles. When egg masses were placed in extracts of these formulations, hatching did not occur at all the concentrations (10%, 5%, 2.5% and 1.25% w/v) of the crude formulations. When the treated egg masses were returned to water, the eggs resumed hatching. Aza did not affect the nematode hatching. In glasshouse experiments, soil application of neem formulations significantly reduced the invasion of tomato roots by root-knot nematodes but once the nematodes managed to invade them, no effect detected on their development. Soil applications of Aza at 0.05% and 0.1% w/v significantly reduced the invasion and delayed development of nematodes within tomato roots whereas 0.025% did not. There were significantly fewer egg masses on tomato roots exposed to single egg mass in neem amended soil as compared to control. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seeds of change: The value of using Rhinanthus minor in grassland restoration

Question: What is the value of using Rhinanthus minor in grassland restoration and can restrictions on its establishment be overcome? Location: England (United Kingdom). Methods: Two experiments were established to determine the efficacy of inoculating R. minor on a suite of four agriculturally improved grasslands and the efficacy of using R. minor in grassland restoration. In Experiment 1, the effect of herbicide gap creation on the establishment and persistence of R. minor in grasslands ranging in productivity was investigated with respect to sward management. In Exp. 2, R. minor was sown at 1000 seeds/m(2) in conjunction with a standard meadow mix over a randomized plot design into Lolium perenne grassland of moderate productivity. The treatment of scarification was investigated as a treatment to promote R. minor. Results: Gap size had a significant role in the establishment and performance of R. minor, especially the 30 cm diameter gaps (Exp. 1). However, R. minor failed to establish long-term persistent populations in all of the agriculturally improved grasslands. In Exp. 2, establishment of R. minor was increased by scarification and its presence was associated with a significant increase in Shannon diversity and the number of sown and unsown species. Values of grass above-ground biomass were significantly lower in plots sown with R. minor, but values of total above-ground biomass (including R. minor) and forb biomass (not including R. minor) were not affected. Conclusions: The value of introducing R. minor into species-poor grassland to increase diversity has been demonstrated, but successful establishment was dependent on grassland type. The scope for using R. minor in grassland restoration schemes is therefore conditional, although establishment can be enhanced through disturbance such as sward scarification.

An illustration of the modelling of cost and efficacy data from a clinical trial

Health care providers, purchasers and policy makers need to make informed decisions regarding the provision of cost-effective care. When a new health care intervention is to be compared with the current standard, an economic evaluation alongside an evaluation of health benefits provides useful information for the decision making process. We consider the information on cost-effectiveness which arises from an individual clinical trial comparing the two interventions. Recent methods for conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis for a clinical trial have focused on the net benefit parameter. The net benefit parameter, a function of costs and health benefits, is positive if the new intervention is cost-effective compared with the standard. In this paper we describe frequentist and Bayesian approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis which have been suggested in the literature and apply them to data from a clinical trial comparing laparoscopic surgery with open mesh surgery for the repair of inguinal hernias. We extend the Bayesian model to allow the total cost to be divided into a number of different components. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches are discussed. In January 2001, NICE issued guidance on the type of surgery to be used for inguinal hernia repair. We discuss our example in the light of this information. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationship between resistance factors and treatment efficacy when bromadiolone was used against anticoagulant-resistant Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.) in Wales

We investigated the relationship between the severity and incidence of resistance among Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) on a farm in Wales and the subsequent outcome of a practical rodent control operation. Bromadiolone resistance factors were estimated for rats trapped on the farm using the blood clotting response test, and were found to be 2 to 3 for male rats and approximately 6 for females. The incidence of resistance in the rat population was high. Infestation size was estimated by census baiting and tracking, and was found to be substantial, with a maximum of 6.5 kg of bait being eaten on a single night. A proprietary rodenticide (Deadline (TM)), containing 0.005% bromadiolone, was used to control the infestation. The duration of baiting was 35 days and, according to the two methods of assessment used, treatment success was in the region of 87 and 93%. No evidence was observed of a significant impact of resistance on the rat control operation, and the remaining rats of this very heavy infestation would probably have been controlled if baiting had continued for longer.

The effect of carrier substrate, dose rate and time of application on biocontrol efficacy of fungal antagonists against Armillaria root rot of strawberry plants.

In a glasshouse experiment using potted strawberry plants (cv. Cambridge Favourite) as hosts, the effect of selected fungal antagonists grown on 25 or 50 g of mushroom compost containing autoclaved mycelia of Agaricus bisporus, or wheat bran was evaluated against Armillaria mellea. Another glasshouse experiment tested the effect of application time of the antagonists in relation to inoculations with the pathogen. A significant interaction was found between the antagonists, substrates and dose rates. All the plants treated with Chaetomium olivaceum isolate Co on 50 g wheat bran survived until the end of the experiment which lasted 482 days, while none of them survived when this antagonist was added to the roots of the plants on 25 g wheat bran or 25 or 50 g mushroom compost. Dactylium dendroides isolate SP had a similar effect, although with a lower host survival rate of 33.3%. Trichoderma hamatum isolate Tham 1 and T. harzianum isolate Th23 protected 33.3% of the plants when added on 50 g and none when added on 25 g of either substrate, while 66.7% of the plants treated with T. harzianum isolate Th2 on 25 g, or T viride isolate TO on 50 g wheat bran, survived. Application of the antagonists on mushroom compost initially resulted in development of more leaves and healthier plants, but this effect was not sustained. Eventually, plants treated with the antagonists on wheat bran had significantly more leaves and higher health scores. The plants treated with isolate Th2 and inoculated with Armillaria at the same time had a survival rate of 66.7% for the duration of the experiment (475 days), while none of them survived that long when the antagonist and pathogen were applied with an interval of 85 days in either sequence. C. olivaceum isolate Co showed a protective effect only, as 66.7% of the plants survived when they were treated with the antagonist 85 days before inoculation with the pathogen, while none of them survived when the antagonist and pathogen were applied together or the infection preceded protection.

Analysis of molecular determinants of affinity and relative efficacy of a series of R- and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins at the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor

1 Factors influencing agonist affinity and relative efficacy have been studied for the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor using membranes of CHO cells expressing the human form of the receptor and a series of R-and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins (nonhydroxylated and monohydroxylated (5-OH, 6-OH, 7-OH, 8-OH) species). 2 Ligand binding studies were used to determine dissociation constants for agonist binding to the 5HT(1A) receptor: (a) K-i values for agonists were determined in competition versus the binding of the agonist [H-3]-8-OH DPAT. Competition data were all fitted best by a one-binding site model. (b) K-i values for agonists were also determined in competition versus the binding of the antagonist [H-3]-NAD-199. Competition data were all fitted best by a two-binding site model, and agonist affinities for the higher (K-h) and lower affinity (K-1) sites were determined. 3 The ability of the agonists to activate the 5-HT1A receptor was determined using stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. Maximal effects of agonists (E-max) and their potencies (EC50) were determined from concentration/response curves for stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. 4 K-1/K-h determined from ligand binding assays correlated with the relative efficacy (relative Em) of agonists determined in [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. There was also a correlation between K-1/K-h and K-1/EC50 for agonists determined from ligand binding and [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. 5 Simulations of agonist binding and effect data were performed using the Ternary Complex Model in order to assess the use of K-1/K-h for predicting the relative efficacy of agonists. British Journal of Pharmacology (2003) 138, 1129-1139. doi: 10. 1038/sj.bjp.705085.