Low predictive value of elevated blood pressure during childhood and adolescence

Background: Screening of elevated blood pressure (BP) in children has been advocated to early identify hypertension. However, identification of children with sustained elevated BP is challenging due to the high BP variability. The value of an elevated BP measure during childhood and adolescence for the prediction of future elevated BP is not well described. Objectives: We assessed the positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive value of high BP for sustained elevated BP in cohorts of children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the African region. Methods: Serial school-based surveys of weight, height, and BP were conducted yearly between 1998-2006 among all students of the country in four school grades (kindergarten [G0, mean age (SD): 5.5 (0.4) yr], G4 [9.2 (0.4) yr], G7 [12.5 (0.4) yr] and G10 (15.6 (0.5) yr]. We constituted three cohorts of children examined twice at 3-4 years interval: 4,557 children examined at G0 and G4, 6,198 at G4 and G7, and 6,094 at G7 and G10. The same automated BP measurement devices were used throughout the study. BP was measured twice at each exam and averaged. Obesity and elevated BP were defined using the CDC (BMI_95th sex-, and age-specific percentile) and the NHBPEP criteria (BP_95th sex-, age-, and height specific percentile), respectively. Results: Prevalence of obesity was 6.1% at G0, 7.1% at G4, 7.5% at G7, and 6.5% at G10. Prevalence of elevated BP was 10.2% at G0, 9.9% at G4, 7.1% at G7, and 8.7% at G10. Among children with elevated BP at initial exam, the PPV of keeping elevated BP was low but increased with age: 13% between G0 and G4, 19% between G4 and G7, and 27% between G7 and G10. Among obese children with elevated BP, the PPV was higher: 33%, 35% and 39% respectively. Overall, the probability for children with normal BP to remain in that category 3-4 years later (NPV) was 92%, 95%, and 93%, respectively. By comparison, the PPV for children initially obese to remain obese was much higher at 71%, 71%, and 62% (G7-G10), respectively. The NPV (i.e. the probability of remaining at normal weight) was 94%, 96%, and 98%, respectively. Conclusion: During childhood and adolescence, having an elevated BP at one occasion is a weak predictor of sustained elevated BP 3-4 years later. In obese children, it is a better predictor.

Potential impact of single-risk-factor versus total risk management for the prevention of cardiovascular events in Seychelles.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in Seychelles, a middle-income African country, and compare the cost-effectiveness of single-risk-factor management (treating individuals with arterial blood pressure >/= 140/90 mmHg and/or total serum cholesterol >/= 6.2 mmol/l) with that of management based on total CV risk (treating individuals with a total CV risk >/= 10% or >/= 20%).METHODS: CV risk factor prevalence and a CV risk prediction chart for Africa were used to estimate the 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal CV event among individuals aged 40-64 years. These figures were used to compare single-risk-factor management with total risk management in terms of the number of people requiring treatment to avert one CV event and the number of events potentially averted over 10 years. Treatment for patients with high total CV risk (>/= 20%) was assumed to consist of a fixed-dose combination of several drugs (polypill). Cost analyses were limited to medication.FINDINGS: A total CV risk of >/= 10% and >/= 20% was found among 10.8% and 5.1% of individuals, respectively. With single-risk-factor management, 60% of adults would need to be treated and 157 cardiovascular events per 100 000 population would be averted per year, as opposed to 5% of adults and 92 events with total CV risk management. Management based on high total CV risk optimizes the balance between the number requiring treatment and the number of CV events averted.CONCLUSION: Total CV risk management is much more cost-effective than single-risk-factor management. These findings are relevant for all countries, but especially for those economically and demographically similar to Seychelles.

Motion faite à l'assemblée de la commune de Paris, sur la nécessité d'exiger que tous et chacun soient aux places qui leurs conviennent, le 14 juillet 1790 : avec la réponse de M. le président ([Reprod.])

Collection : Les archives de la Révolution française ; 6.2.1101

Entre hybris et mélancolie : poétique, esthétique et usages de la liste dans le roman français contemporain (1963-2013)

Forme archaïque, présente dès l'aube de l'écriture; forme ergonomique, présente autour de nous de manière bien plus courante que toute narration; la liste est un objet fascinant, qui ne dévoile jamais autant sa complexité que lorsqu'elle apparaît dans un cadre littéraire. Un cadre permettant de questionner, en les confrontant, la liste et son énonciateur - son sujet. Qui parle quand une liste se dit? Que dit-elle de celui qui l'énonce? Qui parle, lorsque la syntaxe se bouleverse au point de détruire les hiérarchies permettant habituellement de fixer au discours une origine, une destination, une reprise en charge? Il s'agira de répondre à ces questions et donc de passer d'une poétique à une éthique de la liste, afin de montrer que la description d'un tel objet est indissociable de sa contextualisation discursive, sa subjectivisation. Celle-ci traverse, par une constante métalepse (glissement entre les instances de responsabilité du discours), tout le spectre des actants du texte-liste - de la figure d'auteur à celle du lecteur. La spécificité de la liste littéraire se déporte alors dans un espace éthique, puis bientôt thymique, constitué par un faisceau d'oppositions : par exemple, la liste peut être fermée ou ouverte, hyper- ou hypolisible ; signe d'ordre (c'est l'inventaire, où à l'item correspond la chose) comme de désordre (c'est l'accumulation proliférante). Mais le couple oppositionnel le plus fécond est constitué par l'hybris et la mélancolie: hybris, ou l'orgueil de croire à une réinvention du monde par le pouvoir d'une juxtaposition sans limites. Mélancolie, ou miroitement du mot manquant, évidence de l'absence. C'est sous l'égide de cette opposition que je traite un vaste corpus constitué de huit auteurs contemporains, marqués par un XXe siècle catastrophique, où à l'hybris pléthorique de l'expression de la monstruosité et de l'abondance (J-M.G. Le Clézio, Georges Perec, Eric Chevillard) répond la mélancolie d'une absence ontologique : identitaire (Patrick Modiano), épistémologique (Pierre Senges) langagière (Pascal Quignard, Olivia Rosenthal), voire politique (Antoine Volodine).

Absence of BK viremia clearance after low-dose cidofovir therapy in kidney transplant recipients with BK virus associated nephropathy

Background: BK virus associated nephropathy occurs in 1-10% of kidney transplant recipients and may be a cause of graft loss. This infection is difficult to manage because of the absence of specific therapy. Cidofovir, a DNA polymerase inhibitor approved for the treatment of CMV retinitis, has shown in vitro activity against BK virus and some clinical efficacy when used at low-dose in uncontrolled series. Objective: To assess the efficacy of low-dose Cidofovir in the treatment of BK virus associated nephropathy. Method: Two adult kidney transplant recipients with biopsy-proven BK nephropathy and persistent high viremia (>10,000 copies/ml) despite 3-month reduction of immunosuppressive therapy were treated by Cidofovir 0.5 mg/kg fortnightly for a total of 16 weeks (8 doses). Clinical response was assessed by following BK viremia. Results: No decrease in BK viremia was observed at any point during cidofovir therapy (see figure). Creatinine clearance remained stable during therapy and no side-effects of Cidofovir were observed. Conclusions: Low-dose Cidofovir therapy was not associated with a clearance or with a significant decrease of BK viremia. This pilot study does not confirm previous reports suggesting clinical efficacy of Cidofovir for BK virus associated nephropathy.