Multimedia fate modeling and comparative impact on freshwater ecosystems of pharmaceuticals from biosolids-amended soils

This study modeled the impact on freshwater ecosystems of pharmaceuticals detected in biosolids following application on agricultural soils. The detected sulfonamides and hydrochlorothiazide displayed comparatively moderate retention in solid matrices and, therefore, higher transfer fractions from biosolids to the freshwater compartment. However, the residence times of these pharmaceuticals in freshwater were estimated to be short due to abiotic degradation processes. The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory mefenamic acid had the highest environmental impact on aquatic ecosystems and warrants further investigation. The estimation of the solid-water partitioning coefficient was generally the most influential parameter of the probabilistic comparative impact assessment. These results and the modeling approach used in this study serve to prioritize pharmaceuticals in the research effort to assess the risks and the environmental impacts on aquatic biota of these emerging pollutants.

Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

A few what-ifs on using statistical analysis of stochastic simulation runs to extract timeliness properties

Modern real-time systems, with a more flexible and adaptive nature, demand approaches for timeliness evaluation based on probabilistic measures of meeting deadlines. In this context, simulation can emerge as an adequate solution to understand and analyze the timing behaviour of actual systems. However, care must be taken with the obtained outputs under the penalty of obtaining results with lack of credibility. Particularly important is to consider that we are more interested in values from the tail of a probability distribution (near worst-case probabilities), instead of deriving confidence on mean values. We approach this subject by considering the random nature of simulation output data. We will start by discussing well known approaches for estimating distributions out of simulation output, and the confidence which can be applied to its mean values. This is the basis for a discussion on the applicability of such approaches to derive confidence on the tail of distributions, where the worst-case is expected to be.

Short-term Value for the Water Stored in Headsensitivity Power System Reservoirs

As it is well known, competitive electricity markets require new computing tools for generation companies to enhance the management of its resources. The economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir is crucial information for enhancing the management of the reservoirs. This paper proposes a practical deterministic approach for computing the short-term economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir, emphasizing the need to considerer water stored as a scarce resource with a short-term economic value. The paper addresses a problem concerning reservoirs with small storage capacities, i.e., the reservoirs considered as head-sensitivity. More precisely, the respective hydro plant is head-dependent and a pure linear approach is unable to capture such consideration. The paper presents a case study supported by the proposed practical deterministic approach and applied on a real multi-reservoir power system with three cascaded reservoirs, considering as input data forecasts for the electric energy price and for the natural inflow into the reservoirs over the schedule time horizon. The paper presents various water schedules due to different final stored water volume conditions on the reservoirs. Also, it presents the respective economic value of the water for the reservoirs at different stored water volume conditions.

As fontes de informação online e a influência na reputação das organizações

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Gestão Estratégica das Relações Públicas.

Online robust optimization framework for QoS guarantees in distributed soft real-time systems

In distributed soft real-time systems, maximizing the aggregate quality-of-service (QoS) is a typical system-wide goal, and addressing the problem through distributed optimization is challenging. Subtasks are subject to unpredictable failures in many practical environments, and this makes the problem much harder. In this paper, we present a robust optimization framework for maximizing the aggregate QoS in the presence of random failures. We introduce the notion of K-failure to bound the effect of random failures on schedulability. Using this notion we define the concept of K-robustness that quantifies the degree of robustness on QoS guarantee in a probabilistic sense. The parameter K helps to tradeoff achievable QoS versus robustness. The proposed robust framework produces optimal solutions through distributed computations on the basis of Lagrangian duality, and we present some implementation techniques. Our simulation results show that the proposed framework can probabilistically guarantee sub-optimal QoS which remains feasible even in the presence of random failures.

A framework for the response time analysis of fixed-priority tasks with stochastic inter-arrival times

Real-time scheduling usually considers worst-case values for the parameters of task (or message stream) sets, in order to provide safe schedulability tests for hard real-time systems. However, worst-case conditions introduce a level of pessimism that is often inadequate for a certain class of (soft) real-time systems. In this paper we provide an approach for computing the stochastic response time of tasks where tasks have inter-arrival times described by discrete probabilistic distribution functions, instead of minimum inter-arrival (MIT) values.

Energy-Aware Routing And Grooming For IP Transport Over WDM MLR Networks

In this work a mixed integer optimization linear programming (MILP) model was applied to mixed line rate (MLR) IP over WDM and IP over OTN over WDM (with and without OTN grooming) networks, with aim to reduce network energy consumption. Energy-aware and energy-aware & short-path routing techniques were used. Simulations were made based on a real network topology as well as on forecasts of traffic matrix based on statistical data from 2005 up to 2017. Energy aware routing optimization model on IPoWDM network, showed the lowest energy consumption along all years, and once compared with energy-aware & short-path routing, has led to an overall reduction in energy consumption up to 29%, expecting to save even more than shortest-path routing. © 2014 IEEE.

Occupational conditions and the risk of the use of amphetamines by truck drivers

OBJECTIVE To test whether the occupational conditions of professional truck drivers are associated with amphetamine use after demographic characteristics and ones regarding mental health and drug use are controlled for.METHODS Cross-sectional study, with a non-probabilistic sample of 684 male truck drivers, which was collected in three highways in Sao Paulo between years 2012 and 2013. Demographic and occupational information was collected, as well as data on drug use and mental health (sleep quality, emotional stress, and psychiatric disorders). A logistic regression model was developed to identify factors associated with amphetamine use. Odds ratio (OR; 95%CI) was defined as the measure for association. The significance level was established as p < 0.05.RESULTS The studied sample was found to have an average age of 36.7 (SD = 7.8) years, as well as low education (8.6 [SD = 2.3] years); 29.0% of drivers reported having used amphetamines within the twelve months prior to their interviews. After demographic and occupational variables had been controlled for, the factors which indicated amphetamine use among truck drivers were the following: being younger than 38 years (OR = 3.69), having spent less than nine years at school (OR = 1.76), being autonomous (OR = 1.65), working night shifts or irregular schedules (OR = 2.05), working over 12 hours daily (OR = 2.14), and drinking alcohol (OR = 1.74).CONCLUSIONS Occupational aspects are closely related to amphetamine use among truck drivers, which reinforces the importance of closely following the application of law (Resting Act (“Lei do Descanso”); Law 12,619/2012) which regulates the workload and hours of those professionals. Our results show the need for increased strictness on the trade and prescription of amphetamines in Brazil.

Access to childbirth care by adolescents and young people in the Northeastern region of Brazil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify the factors that interfere with the access of adolescents and young people to childbirth care for in the Northeast region of Brazil. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 3,014 adolescents and young people admitted to the selected maternity wards to give birth in the Northeast region of Brazil. The sample design was probabilistic, in two stages: the first corresponded to the health establishments and the second to women who had recently given birth and their babies. The data was collected by means of interviews and consulting the hospital records, from pre-tested electronic form. Descriptive statistics were used for the univariate analysis, Pearson’s Chi-square test for the bivariate analysis and multiple logistic regressions for the multivariate analysis. Sociodemographic variables, obstetrical history, and birth care were analyzed. RESULTS Half of the adolescents and young people interviewed had not been given guidance on the location that they should go to when in labor, and among those who had, 23.5% did not give birth in the indicated health service. Furthermore, one third (33.3%) had to travel in search of assisted birth, and the majority (66.7%) of the postpartum women came to maternity by their own means. In the bivariate analysis, the variables marital status, paid work, health insurance, number of previous pregnancies, parity, city location, and type of health establishment showed a significant association (p < 0.20) with inadequate access to childbirth care. The multivariate analysis showed that married adolescents and young people (p < 0.015), with no health insurance (p < 0.002) and from the countryside (p < 0.001) were more likely to have inadequate access to childbirth care. CONCLUSIONS Adolescents and young women, married, without health insurance, and from the countryside are more likely to have inadequate access to birth care. The articulation between outpatient care and birth care can improve this access and, consequently, minimize the maternal and fetal risks that arise from a lack of systematic hospitalization planning.

Fractional derivatives: probability interpretation and frequency response of rational approximations

The theory of fractional calculus (FC) is a useful mathematical tool in many applied sciences. Nevertheless, only in the last decades researchers were motivated for the adoption of the FC concepts. There are several reasons for this state of affairs, namely the co-existence of different definitions and interpretations, and the necessity of approximation methods for the real time calculation of fractional derivatives (FDs). In a first part, this paper introduces a probabilistic interpretation of the fractional derivative based on the Grünwald-Letnikov definition. In a second part, the calculation of fractional derivatives through Padé fraction approximations is analyzed. It is observed that the probabilistic interpretation and the frequency response of fraction approximations of FDs reveal a clear correlation between both concepts.

Eficiência energética em edifícios residenciais da cidade do Porto

O consumo de energia a nível mundial tem atingido valores históricos, devido ao crescimento da população mundial e ao aumento do consumo per capita. Nesta medida é extremamente importante existirem alternativas para que a redução do consumo de energia de todos os países seja uma realidade, evitando também as consequências ambientais, em particular as alterações climáticas, resultantes da utilização intensiva de combustíveis fósseis. Portugal, tal como outros países da União Europeia, tem que cumprir metas, pelo que é urgente encontrarem-se soluções de forma a diminuir o consumo de energia sem interferir com o nosso dia-a-dia. A cidade do Porto, tal como qualquer cidade, precisa de imensa energia desde os transportes até à indústria, passando pelos edifícios. Os edifícios, residenciais e de serviços, são responsáveis por mais de 50% de energia primária consumida no concelho do Porto, sendo que aos edifícios residenciais corresponde um consumo de 1.473 GWh/ano de energia primária, o que é um valor elevado. Numa primeira parte deste trabalho foi efetuado um levantamento de informação caracterizando a cidade do Porto relativamente ao seu edificado e consumos energéticos. Numa segunda parte propuseram-se medidas para reduzir o consumo para cada tipo de utilização de energia, nomeadamente preparação de refeições, AQS (água quente sanitária), aquecimento ambiente, frio (frigorífico, arcas, etc.), outros e iluminação. Para cada um destes tipos de utilização estudou-se, sempre que possível, a evolução do longo do tempo (2004 a 2012) e possíveis cenários de evolução para o futuro. Para além disso, também se estudou a evolução do mix de produção de energia elétrica de 2004 até 2012 e previsões da evolução do mix para o futuro. Nesta análise foi tido em conta o aspeto ambiental contabilizando-se, sempre que possível, as emissões de poluentes resultantes do consumo de energia. Por fim, efetuou-se uma avaliação técnica, ambiental e económica das medidas propostas. Pode dizer-se que a maioria das medidas propostas a serem implementadas conduziria a uma redução do consumo de energia e consequentemente a uma diminuição das emissões de poluentes, em particular dos gases com efeito de estufa (CO2). Em termos técnicos a maioria das medidas pode ser aplicada embora algumas delas envolvam custos de investimento significativos. Dada a conjuntura atual, seria importante obter o financiamento necessário para a implementação das medidas propostas e a divulgação de medidas já existentes, tais como os programas para AQS e janelas eficientes.

Aplicação de métodos estocásticos na gestão de custos de construção de condutas de saneamento

O trabalho apresentado centra-se na determinação dos custos de construção de condutas de pequenos e médios diâmetros em Polietileno de Alta Densidade (PEAD) para saneamento básico, tendo como base a metodologia descrita no livro Custos de Construção e Exploração – Volume 9 da série Gestão de Sistemas de Saneamento Básico, de Lencastre et al. (1994). Esta metodologia descrita no livro já referenciado, nos procedimentos de gestão de obra, e para tal foram estimados custos unitários de diversos conjuntos de trabalhos. Conforme Lencastre et al (1994), “esses conjuntos são referentes a movimentos de terras, tubagens, acessórios e respetivos órgãos de manobra, pavimentações e estaleiro, estando englobado na parte do estaleiro trabalhos acessórios correspondentes à obra.” Os custos foram obtidos analisando vários orçamentos de obras de saneamento, resultantes de concursos públicos de empreitadas recentemente realizados. Com vista a tornar a utilização desta metodologia numa ferramenta eficaz, foram organizadas folhas de cálculo que possibilitam obter estimativas realistas dos custos de execução de determinada obra em fases anteriores ao desenvolvimento do projeto, designadamente numa fase de preparação do plano diretor de um sistema ou numa fase de elaboração de estudos de viabilidade económico-financeiros, isto é, mesmo antes de existir qualquer pré-dimensionamento dos elementos do sistema. Outra técnica implementada para avaliar os dados de entrada foi a “Análise Robusta de Dados”, Pestana (1992). Esta metodologia permitiu analisar os dados mais detalhadamente antes de se formularem hipóteses para desenvolverem a análise de risco. A ideia principal é o exame bastante flexível dos dados, frequentemente antes mesmo de os comparar a um modelo probabilístico. Assim, e para um largo conjunto de dados, esta técnica possibilitou analisar a disparidade dos valores encontrados para os diversos trabalhos referenciados anteriormente. Com os dados recolhidos, e após o seu tratamento, passou-se à aplicação de uma metodologia de Análise de Risco, através da Simulação de Monte Carlo. Esta análise de risco é feita com recurso a uma ferramenta informática da Palisade, o @Risk, disponível no Departamento de Engenharia Civil. Esta técnica de análise quantitativa de risco permite traduzir a incerteza dos dados de entrada, representada através de distribuições probabilísticas que o software disponibiliza. Assim, para por em prática esta metodologia, recorreu-se às folhas de cálculo que foram realizadas seguindo a abordagem proposta em Lencastre et al (1994). A elaboração e a análise dessas estimativas poderão conduzir à tomada de decisões sobre a viabilidade da ou das obras a realizar, nomeadamente no que diz respeito aos aspetos económicos, permitindo uma análise de decisão fundamentada quanto à realização dos investimentos.

Design of New Materials for Passive Vibration Control

The objective of this contribution is to extend the models of cellular/composite material design to nonlinear material behaviour and apply them for design of materials for passive vibration control. As a first step a computational tool allowing determination of optimised one-dimensional isolator behaviour was developed. This model can serve as a representation for idealised macroscopic behaviour. Optimal isolator behaviour to a given set of loads is obtained by generic probabilistic metaalgorithm, simulated annealing. Cost functional involves minimization of maximum response amplitude in a set of predefined time intervals and maximization of total energy absorbed in the first loop. Dependence of the global optimum on several combinations of leading parameters of the simulated annealing procedure, like neighbourhood definition and annealing schedule, is also studied and analyzed. Obtained results facilitate the design of elastomeric cellular materials with improved behaviour in terms of dynamic stiffness for passive vibration control.

Perturbações da voz profissional: da prevalência ao impacto económico

Dissertação apresentada à Associação de Politécnicos do Norte para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Gestão das Organizações, Ramo de Gestão de Empresas Orientação: Prof. Doutor Jorge Ferreira Dias de Figueiredo Co-Orientação: Mestre Luís Francisco de Oliveira Marques Metello