Simulating Mechanisms for Dispersal, Production and Stranding of Small Forage Fish in Temporary Wetland Habitats

Movement strategies of small forage fish (<8 cm total length) between temporary and permanent wetland habitats affect their overall population growth and biomass concentrations, i.e., availability to predators. These fish are often the key energy link between primary producers and top predators, such as wading birds, which require high concentrations of stranded fish in accessible depths. Expansion and contraction of seasonal wetlands induce a sequential alternation between rapid biomass growth and concentration, creating the conditions for local stranding of small fish as they move in response to varying water levels. To better understand how landscape topography, hydrology, and fish behavior interact to create high densities of stranded fish, we first simulated population dynamics of small fish, within a dynamic food web, with different traits for movement strategy and growth rate, across an artificial, spatially explicit, heterogeneous, two-dimensional marsh slough landscape, using hydrologic variability as the driver for movement. Model output showed that fish with the highest tendency to invade newly flooded marsh areas built up the largest populations over long time periods with stable hydrologic patterns. A higher probability to become stranded had negative effects on long-term population size, and offset the contribution of that species to stranded biomass. The model was next applied to the topography of a 10 km × 10 km area of Everglades landscape. The details of the topography were highly important in channeling fish movements and creating spatiotemporal patterns of fish movement and stranding. This output provides data that can be compared in the future with observed locations of fish biomass concentrations, or such surrogates as phosphorus ‘hotspots’ in the marsh.

Essays on intergenerational and regional aspects of water management

This dissertation consists of three essays on different aspects of water management. The first essay focuses on the sustainability of freshwater use by introducing the notion that altruistic parents do bequeath economic assets for their offspring. Constructing a two-period, over-lapping generational model, an optimal ratio of consumption and pollution for old and young generations in each period is determined. Optimal levels of water consumption and pollution change according to different parameters, such as, altruistic degree, natural recharge rate, and population growth. The second essay concerns water sharing between countries in the case of trans-boundary river basins. The paper recognizes that side payments fail to forge water-sharing agreement among the international community and that downstream countries have weak bargaining power. An interconnected game approach is developed by linking the water allocation issue with other non-water issues such as trade or border security problems, creating symmetry between countries in bargaining power. An interconnected game forces two countries to at least partially cooperate under some circumstances. The third essay introduces the concept of virtual water (VW) into a traditional international trade model in order to estimate water savings for a water scarce country. A two country, two products and two factors trade model is developed, which includes not only consumers and producer's surplus, but also environmental externality of water use. The model shows that VW trade saves water and increases global and local welfare. This study should help policy makers to design appropriate subsidy or tax policy to promote water savings especially in water scarce countries.^

A Cultural Historical Study of Land Use in Dade County, Florida

Humans have used the land within the area currently defined as Dade County, Florida since around 11,000 B.P., but did not significantly alter the local environment until less than one hundred years ago. These recent changes greatly affected many critical ecological factors, thereby reducing the sustainability of many types of life, including humans. This study explains how land use evolved from earlier sustainable systems for satisfying human needs into the current menacing patterns. This is done by examining the environmental, technological, social, and cognitive contexts of land use through time. Changes in all these areas have followed a general trend leading to increasing intensity of land use and environmental change driven by population growth and technological innovation.

In-situ seawater pH and temperature during and fitness traits of a calcifying polychaete after a reciprocal transplant experiment in June-July near Ischia, italy

Ocean acidification (OA) is likely to exert selective pressure on natural populations. Our ability to predict which marine species will adapt to OA, and what underlies this adaptive potential, are of high conservation and resource management priority. Using a naturally low pH vent site in the Mediterranean Sea (Castello Aragonese, Ischia) mirroring projected future OA conditions, we carried out a reciprocal transplant experiment to investigate the relative importance of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation in two populations of the sessile, calcifying polychaete /Simplaria /sp. (Annelida, Serpulidae, Spirorbinae): one residing in low pH and the other from a nearby ambient (i.e. high) pH site. We measured a suite of fitness related traits (i.e. survival, reproductive output, maturation, population growth) and tube growth rates in laboratory-bred F2 generation individuals from both populations reciprocally transplanted back into both ambient and low pH /in situ/ habitats. Both populations showed lower expression in all traits, but increased tube growth rates, when exposed to low pH compared to high pH conditions, regardless of their site of origin suggesting that local adaptation to low pH conditions has not occurred. We also found comparable levels of plasticity in the two populations investigated, suggesting no influence of long-term exposure to low pH on the ability of populations to adjust their phenotype. Despite high variation in trait values among sites and the relatively extreme conditions at sites close to the vents (pH < 7.36), response trends were consistent across traits. Hence, our data suggest that, for /Simplaria /and possibly other calcifiers, neither local adaptations nor sufficient phenotypic plasticity levels appear to suffice in order to compensate for the negative impacts of OA on long-term survival. Our work also underlines the utility of field experiments in natural environments subjected to high level of /p/CO_2 for elucidating the potential for adaptation to future scenarios of OA.

Dunn County and Watford City, North Dakota: A case study of the fiscal effects of Bakken shale development

The Bakken region of North Dakota and Montana has experienced perhaps the greatest effects of increased oil and gas development in the United States, with major implications for local governments. Though development of the Bakken began in the early 2000s, large-scale drilling and population growth dramatically affected the region from roughly 2008 through today. This case study examines the local government fiscal benefits and challenges experienced by Dunn County and Watford City, which lie near the heart of the producing region. For both local governments, the initial growth phase presented major fiscal challenges due to rapidly expanding service demands and insufficient revenue. In the following years, these challenges eased as demand for services slowed due to declining industry activity and state tax policies redirected more funds to localities. Looking forward, both local governments describe their fiscal health as stronger because of the Bakken boom, though higher debt loads and an economy heavily dependent on the volatile oil and gas industry each pose challenges for future fiscal stability.

Colorado's Piceance Basin: Variation in the local public finance effects of oil and gas development

A large increase in natural gas production occurred in western Colorado’s Piceance basin in the mid- to late-2000s, generating a surge in population, economic activity, and heavy truck traffic in this rural region. We describe the fiscal effects related to this development for two county governments: Garfield and Rio Blanco, and two city governments: Grand Junction and Rifle. Counties maintain rural road networks in Colorado, and Garfield County’s ability to fashion agreements with operators to repair roads damaged during operations helped prevent the types of large new costs seen in Rio Blanco County, a neighboring county with less government capacity and where such agreements were not made. Rifle and Grand Junction experienced substantial oil- and gas-driven population growth, with greater challenges in the smaller, more isolated, and less economically diverse city of Rifle. Lessons from this case study include the value of crafting road maintenance agreements, fiscal risks for small and geographically isolated communities experiencing rapid population growth, challenges associated with limited infrastructure, and the desirability of flexibility in the allocation of oil- and gas-related revenue.

Public-Private Partnership Design for Inclusive Cocoa Global Value Chains in Ghana

Within 10 years, there could be a severe global shortage in the supply of cocoa, according to industry practitioners and other experts. Due to global population growth and the emergence of a growing global middle class, by 2025 the cocoa crop would need to increase by nearly 50 per cent to keep up with projected demand. A potential shortage of supply is a direct threat to the business model of lead firms – including cocoa grinders and processors, chocolate confectioners, and retail distributors. But these international firms – the ones that will suffer the most if there is a shortage of cocoa supply – are helping create the market failure that is stifling sustainability. Functioning as a two-tiered consolidated oligopoly with a combined market share of approximately 89%, these firms enjoy the largest portion of value capture in the cocoa-chocolate global value chain (GVC). The smallholder cocoa producers, conversely, are trapped in low value-add segments of the GVC. In fact, most smallholder farmers survive on less than $1.00 per day per capita, on average in many cocoa exporting countries. In Ghana - the second largest producer of cocoa in the world - the government has accomplished little to help these smallholders upgrade and make cocoa an attractive sector for the next generation to inherit. The result – both in Ghana and around the world – is a lack of sustainability of the supply of cocoa. Demand is already beginning to outstrip supply. As a result of these underlying circumstances, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has posed the following policy question: "Under what conditions could USAID, as a development agency, support and enhance potential public-private partnerships in order to improve the bargaining power (and financial wherewithal) of smallholder organizations and farmers in the context of the global value chain for cocoa in Ghana?"

Drug prescribing patterns in the General Medical Services Scheme in Ireland and projected costs to 2026

The primary objective is to investigate the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing and projecting this expenditure to 2026. This study is located in the area of pharmacoeconomic cost containment and projections literature. The thesis has five main aims: 1. To determine the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing. 2. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2006 Central Statistics Office (CSO) Census data and 2007 Health Service Executive{Primary Care Reimbursement Service (HSE{PCRS) sample data. 3. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2012 HSE{PCRS population data, incorporating cost containment measures, and 2011 CSO Census data. 4. To investigate the impact of demographic factors and the pharmacology of drugs (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC)) on GMS expenditure. 5. To explore the consequences of GMS policy changes on prescribing expenditure and behaviour between 2008 and 2014. The thesis is centered around three published articles and is located between the end of a booming Irish economy in 2007, a recession from 2008{2013, to the beginning of a recovery in 2014. The literature identified a number of factors influencing pharmaceutical expenditure, including population growth, population aging, changes in drug utilisation and drug therapies, age, gender and location. The literature identified the methods previously used in predictive modelling and consequently, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model was used to simulate projected expenditures to 2026. Also, the literature guided the use of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression in determining demographic and pharmacology factors influencing prescribing expenditure. The study commences against a backdrop of growing GMS prescribing costs, which has risen from e250 million in 1998 to over e1 billion by 2007. Using a sample 2007 HSE{PCRS prescribing data (n=192,000) and CSO population data from 2008, (Conway et al., 2014) estimated GMS prescribing expenditure could rise to e2 billion by2026. The cogency of these findings was impacted by the global economic crisis of 2008, which resulted in a sharp contraction in the Irish economy, mounting fiscal deficits resulting in Ireland's entry to a bailout programme. The sustainability of funding community drug schemes, such as the GMS, came under the spotlight of the EU, IMF, ECB (Trioka), who set stringent targets for reducing drug costs, as conditions of the bailout programme. Cost containment measures included: the introduction of income eligibility limits for GP visit cards and medical cards for those aged 70 and over, introduction of co{payments for prescription items, reductions in wholesale mark{up and pharmacy dispensing fees. Projections for GMS expenditure were reevaluated using 2012 HSE{PCRS prescribing population data and CSO population data based on Census 2011. Taking into account both cost containment measures and revised population predictions, GMS expenditure is estimated to increase by 64%, from e1.1 billion in 2016 to e1.8 billion by 2026, (ConwayLenihan and Woods, 2015). In the final paper, a cross{sectional study was carried out on HSE{PCRS population prescribing database (n=1.63 million claimants) to investigate the impact of demographic factors, and the pharmacology of the drugs, on GMS prescribing expenditure. Those aged over 75 (ẞ = 1:195) and cardiovascular prescribing (ẞ = 1:193) were the greatest contributors to annual GMS prescribing costs. Respiratory drugs (Montelukast) recorded the highest proportion and expenditure for GMS claimants under the age of 15. Drugs prescribed for the nervous system (Escitalopram, Olanzapine and Pregabalin) were highest for those between 16 and 64 years with cardiovascular drugs (Statins) were highest for those aged over 65. Females are more expensive than males and are prescribed more items across the four ATC groups, except among children under 11, (ConwayLenihan et al., 2016). This research indicates that growth in the proportion of the elderly claimants and associated levels of cardiovascular prescribing, particularly for statins, will present difficulties for Ireland in terms of cost containment. Whilst policies aimed at cost containment (co{payment charges, generic substitution, reference pricing, adjustments to GMS eligibility) can be used to curtail expenditure, health promotional programs and educational interventions should be given equal emphasis. Also policies intended to affect physicians prescribing behaviour include guidelines, information (about price and less expensive alternatives) and feedback, and the use of budgetary restrictions could yield savings.

Essays on Intergenerational and Regional Aspects of Water Management

This dissertation consists of three essays on different aspects of water management. The first essay focuses on the sustainability of freshwater use by introducing the notion that altruistic parents do bequeath economic assets for their offspring. Constructing a two-period, over-lapping generational model, an optimal ratio of consumption and pollution for old and young generations in each period is determined. Optimal levels of water consumption and pollution change according to different parameters, such as, altruistic degree, natural recharge rate, and population growth. The second essay concerns water sharing between countries in the case of trans-boundary river basins. The paper recognizes that side payments fail to forge water-sharing agreement among the international community and that downstream countries have weak bargaining power. An interconnected game approach is developed by linking the water allocation issue with other non-water issues such as trade or border security problems, creating symmetry between countries in bargaining power. An interconnected game forces two countries to at least partially cooperate under some circumstances. The third essay introduces the concept of virtual water (VW) into a traditional international trade model in order to estimate water savings for a water scarce country. A two country, two products and two factors trade model is developed, which includes not only consumers and producer’s surplus, but also environmental externality of water use. The model shows that VW trade saves water and increases global and local welfare. This study should help policy makers to design appropriate subsidy or tax policy to promote water savings especially in water scarce countries.

PHYSICAL ACTIVITY EXPERIENCES OF PERSIAN WOMEN RECENTLY IMMIGRATED TO CANADA

New immigrants to Canada are generally in similar or better physical and mental health than people born in Canada, however, many studies suggest that their health tends to decline quickly after immigration. Lower physical activity levels among new immigrants might be contributing to this phenomenon. There is a paucity of information regarding the physical activity behaviour of the Canadian immigrant population in general and of West Asian women, such as Iranians (Persians), in particular. Given that this group is characterised by an increasing population growth and lower rates of physical activity, it is critical to understand how best to address physical activity promotion in this population. Purpose: To understand the physical activity experiences of Persian women recently immigrated to Toronto, Canada in order to develop recommendations for the design and implementation of tailored physical activity programs. Methods: A qualitative interpretive description approach was chosen to collect and describe ideas, experiences, and perceptions of physical activity within 10 new immigrant women. Using an inductive approach, two fundamental techniques of immersion and crystallization were used throughout the analysis. Thematic analysis was conducted by performing a sequential process of open and axial coding. Emerged themes were further conceptualized through a socio-ecological lens. Results: The facilitators and barriers to physical activity among the women were situated within five overarching categories, 1) Perceptions about physical activity, 2) New physical environment and social structure, 3) Cultural heritage values, 4) Settlement and immigration factors, and 5) Physical activity program features. Discussion: Findings revealed that Persian new immigrant women’s engagement in physical activity after immigration is influenced by factors across the individual, sociocultural, environmental, institutional, and policy levels. Newcomer women’s physical activity was influenced by their transition from their society of origin to the host society and the challenges and successes experienced throughout the settlement and acculturation process. The most noticeable barrier to physical activity in Canada for the women emerged as the lack of communication of physical activity information to newcomers. A set of recommendations is provided for developing efficient physical activity programs for Persian immigrant women, which may also be relevant for other immigrant groups in Canada.

Colonialism, political unconscious and cognitive mapping in the space of the film "Captain Phillips"

The purpose of this article has been made through a Marxist analysis of the US film "Captain Phillips" (PaulGreengrass, 2013), based on a true story. I have found how the evolution of capitalism in the West continuesto consolidate the belief reified in a historical and geographical superiority of the political and socioeconomicwestern models regarding Africa and Asia lowers models. At the same time, through categories like dialecticalmaterialism, criticism of diffusionist theory and application of cognitive mapping to large geopoliticalspaces located in most poor areas of the world, I have realized a remark about currently being articulatingthe political unconscious of working class in rich countries and the poor in poor countries, establishing arelationship between the ideological representation that takes an individual from his historical reality (ona scale that moves from local to global), and how he has developed a mental ability to escape of the responsibilityto make a critical review of what's happening around him in all areas. Finally, through physicalspace captured in the film, I have realized a materialist critique of globalized business process that takesplace through the carriage of goods, outlining spatial and cognitively limits of the mentality of our time, bothamong "winners"as among the "losers", based on the spatial movement of capital.

Estados Unidos y la guerra por el desarrollo: el control de la natalidad en Chile, 1960-1970

Bajo el paradigma de modernización y desarrollo norteamericano -y en un contexto de Guerra Fría-, durante la década de 1960 se adecuaron a la realidad chilena programas de control de natalidad que no sólo buscaron disminuir las altas tasas de mortalidad materno infantil, sino que además respondieron al proyecto de seguridad hemisférica norteamericana de contención a posibles revoluciones populares en países del Tercer Mundo.

A prospective view of animal and human Fasciolosis

Fasciolosis, a food-borne trematodiasis, results following infection with the parasites, Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigantica. These trematodes greatly affect the global agricultural community, infecting millions of ruminants worldwide and causing annual economic losses in excess of US $3 billion. Fasciolosis, an important zoonosis, is classified by WHO as a neglected tropical disease with an estimated 17 million people infected and a further 180 million people at risk of infection. The significant impact on agriculture and human health together with the increasing demand for animal-derived food products to support global population growth demonstrate that fasciolosis is a major One Health problem. This review details the problematic issues surrounding fasciolosis control, including drug resistance, lack of diagnosis and the threat that hybridization of the Fasciola species poses to future animal and human health. We discuss how these parasites may mediate their long-term survival through regulation and modulation of the host immune system, by altering the host immune homeostasis and/or by influencing the intestinal microbiome particularly in respect to concurrent infections with other pathogens. Large genome, transcriptome and proteomic data sets are now available to support an integrated One Health approach to develop novel diagnostic and control strategies for both animal and human disease.

Intégration d'une communauté minoritaire en période d'industrialisation : les Irlandais catholiques de la ville de Québec, 1852-1911

Au courant de la période industrielle, la ville de Québec a connu une croissance démographique rapide alimentée, entre autres, par une immigration européenne massive. Celle-ci contribua d’une façon notable aux changements socioéconomiques de la capitale durant cette période. Parmi les migrants, les Irlandais catholiques furent nombreux à transiter ou à s’établir à Québec et y laissèrent des traces encore visibles aujourd’hui. Or, bien que l’histoire de la diaspora irlandaise en sol nord-américain ait fait l’objet de plusieurs recherches, le cas de la ville de Québec, tout comme sa période d’industrialisation, reste encore peu étudié à ce jour. Grâce à l’utilisation des recensements nominatifs canadiens de 1852 à 1911 et des actes de mariage, cette étude a comme objectif d’analyser le niveau d’intégration de la communauté irlandaise de Québec sur les plans économique, social et spatial, et ce, à micro-échelle. Ainsi, en observant les emplois et la mobilité socioprofessionnelle des travailleurs, les unions exogames et l’évolution de l’établissement irlandais sur le territoire à l’étude, la présente recherche permet d’établir un constat positif : les Irlandais catholiques ont su s’intégrer à la société urbaine de Québec. Néanmoins, considérant la forte diminution démographique de la communauté au tournant du siècle, l’intégration s’est effectuée davantage à l’échelle des ménages que pour l’ensemble de la communauté.