Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?

This paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in outputgrowth and inflation dynamics in the US. We identify a policy shock and a policy rule ina time-varying coefficients VAR using robust sign restrictions. The transmission of policyshocks has been relatively stable. The variance of the policy shock has decreased over time,but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflationand output growth volatility and persistence. We find little evidence of a significant increasein the long run response of the interest rate to inflation. A more aggressive inflation policyin the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs.

Laparoscopic and open colorectal surgery in everyday practice : retrospective study

Résumé Introduction: La plupart des études disponibles sur la chirurgie colorectale par laparoscopie concernent des patients hautement sélectionnés. Le but de cette étude est d'analyser les résultats à court et à long terme de l'ensemble des patients traités dans un service de chirurgie générale. Méthodes: Il s'agit d'une analyse rétrospective d'un registre prospectif interne au service, dans lequel tous les patients consécutifs opérés pour la première fois du colon et du rectum entre mars 1993 et décembre 1997 ont été enregistrés. Les informations concernant le suivi ont été collectées par questionnaire. Résultats: Un total de 187 patients ont été opérés par laparoscopie et 215 patients par chirurgie ouverte durant la période d'étude. Les informations concernant le suivi ont pu être collectées dans 95% des cas avec une évolution de 1-107 mois (médiane 59 mois), respectivement de 1-104 mois (médiane 53 mois). Une conversion fut nécessaire dans 28 cas (15%) mais ceux-ci restent inclus dans le groupe laparoscopie pour l'analyse par intention de traitement. Dans le groupe laparoscopie, les opérations ont duré plus longtemps (205 vs 150 min, p<0.001) mais l'hospitalisation a été plus courte (8 vs 13 jours, p<0.001). La reprise du transit a été plus rapide après laparoscopie, mais uniquement après intervention sur le colon gauche (3 vs 4 jours, p<0.01). Cependant, la sélection préopératoire (nombre plus élevé d'urgences et de patients avec un risque anesthésiologique élevé dans le groupe de la chirurgie ouverte) a été favorable à la laparoscopie. Le taux de complications (global ainsi que pour chaque complication chirurgicale) a été similaire dans les deux groupes, avec un taux global de 20% environ. Conclusions: Malgré une sélection favorable des cas, uniquement très peu d'avantages à la laparoscopie sur la chirurgie ouverte ont pu être observés. Abstract Background: Most studies available on laparoscopic colorectal surgery focus on highly selected patient groups. The aim of the present study was to review short- and long-term outcome of everyday patients treated in a general surgery department. Methods: Retrospective review was carried out of a prospective database of all consecutive patients having undergone primary laparoscopic (LAP) or open colorectal surgery between March 1993 and December 1997. Follow-up data were completed via questionnaire. Results: A total of 187 patients underwent LAP resection and 215 patients underwent open surgery. Follow up was complete in 95% with a median of 59 months (range, 1-107 months) and 53 months (range, 1-104 months), respectively. There were 28 conversions (15%) in the LAP group and these remained in the LAP group in an intention-to-treat analysis. The LAP operations lasted significantly longer for all types of resections (205 vs 150 min, P<0.001) and hospital stay was shorter (8 vs 13 days, P<0.001). Recovery of intestinal function was faster in the LAP group, but only after left-sided procedures (3 vs 4days, P<0.01). However, preoperative patient selection (more emergency operations and patients with higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score in the open group) had a major influence on these elements and favours the LAP group. Surprisingly, the overall surgical complication rate (including long-term complications such as wound hernia) was 20% in both groups with rates of individual complications also being comparable in both groups. Conclusion: Despite a patient selection favourable to the laparoscopy group, only little advantage in postoperative outcome could be shown for the minimally invasive over the open approach in the everyday patient.

The 'new political economy': Two recent books

This paper reviews two recent books on Political Economy by Allan Drazen and Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini. It discusses some problems of the recent Political Economy literature.

Regional industrialisation without national growth: The Catalan industrialization and the growth of Spanish economy (1830-1861)

This paper has two main objectives. First, it provides a stylised descriptionof the Catalan industrial path of the period 1830-1861. Second, it reviewsthe evolution of the Catalan industry in the Spanish context and, thus, canserve to describe the relative importance of the Catalan industrialexperience. Consequently, it is mainly devoted to computing and analysing thegrowth rates of Catalan industries during the early phase of industrialisation.The results show that Catalonia experienced a true process ofindustrialisation during the period 1830 to 1861, but that its contributionin rapid increase in Spanish GDP was relatively small.

Organização e Publicação dos Termos do Website da ANACOM sob uma Perspetiva Linked Open Data

O propósito da Web Semântica é conseguir uma Web de dados totalmente ligada, isto é, numa perspetiva Linked Open Data. A Web Semântica deve garantir (estabelecendo padrões tecnológicos, vocabulários, linguagens lógicas, etc.) que os conteúdos publicados na Websejam inteligíveis quer por agentes humanos, quer por agentes máquina. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo responder à um problema delimitado, propondo uma solução no quadro da Web Semântica e suas tecnologias. Partindo-se de uma lista de termos em linguagem natural utilizados no Website da ANACOM (Autoridade Nacional de Comunicações), propomos uma organização de acordo com metodologias de construção de ontologias e vocabulários. Inspirámo-nos em duas metodologias, o Ontology Development 101 e o Process and Methodology for Core Vocabularies. O vocabulário controlado resultante, tem como base tecnológica o modelo de organização de conhecimento, recomendado pelo W3C (World Wide Web Consortium), o SKOS (Simple Knowledge Organization System). Trata-sede uma tecnologia standard da W3C desde 2009, utilizada na criação de tesauros,esquemas de classificação, taxonomias, glossários e outros tipos de vocabulários controlados. Como resultado da nossa intervenção, conseguimos organizar e codificar em SKOS, cerca de cinco centenas de termos identificados no Website da ANACOM. Para além da proposta do vocabulário controlado, passámos em revista às tecnologias e teorias que sustentam a temática da Web Semântica.

Oil and economy in Mexico, 1900-1930s

This brief essay reviews the macro framework of oil and economy in Mexicoin the early days of the oil industry, from 1900 to 1938. The first sectiondisplays the figures of production at the world level and shows how Mexicobecome a major oil producer in the 1920s. The second section look at theMexican economy of the first third of the century followed by a thirdsection on the importance of the oil sector in terms of trade and fiscalincome. The last section reviews the literature and the outlooks of thecontemporaries over the development of the oil industry in the early partof the 20th century. The paper will be of use for those producing in depthanalyses of the Mexican oil industry in this period.

Women, Work and the Iowa Economy, September 2008

Women play a substantial and crucial role in the Iowa economy. Women make up almost half the labor force, participating in the labor force at one of the highest rates in the nation. At the same time, disparities persist as to women’s prospects for success in that same economy. For instance, although women in Iowa are more likely than men to receive post-secondary education, they are also more likely to be in poverty and to earn a lower wage than male peers. The “gender gap,” the difference between male and female wages, is a much-discussed but often misunderstood tool that helps measure women’s success in the workforce. Women’s median wages are lower than men’s median wages largely because of differences in male and female occupations and work history, although gender discrimination in the workforce also plays a role. This report investigates Iowa’s gender gap in ways that clearly show both its causes and effects and suggests policy responses that could ensure women’s full and equal participation in Iowa’s economic future. Understanding the differences between men’s and women’s experiences in the state economy is important for developing policies that can effectively address barriers to economic success for all Iowans.

The political economy of employment protection

This paper develops a model of job creation and job destruction in agrowing economy with embodied technical progress, that we use toanalyze the political support for employment protection legislationssuch as the ones that are observed in most European countries.We analyze the possibility of Condorcet cycles due to the fact thatworkers about to become unemployed prefer both an increase and areduction in firing costs over the status quo. Despite this problem, we show the existence of local, and sometimes global majority winners.In voting in favour of employment protection, incumbent employeestrade off lower living standards (because employment protectionmaintains workers in less productive activities) against longer job duration. We show that the gains from, and consequently the politicalsupport for employment protection (as defined by maximunjob tenure) are larger, the lower the rate of creative destruction and the largerthe worker's bargaining power. Numerical simulations suggest a hump-shaped response of firing costs to these variables, as well as negative impact of exogeneous turnover on employment protection.

Stable sunspot equilibria in a cash-in-advance economy

We analyze a monetary model with flexible labor supply, cash-inadvance constraints and seigniorage-financed government deficits. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor is greater than one, there are two steady states, one determinate and the other indeterminate. If the elasticity is less than one, there is a unique steady state, which can be indeterminate. Only in the latter case do there exist sunspot equilibria that are stable under adaptive learning. A sufficient reduction in government purchases can in many cases eliminate the sunspot equilibria while raising consumption/labor taxes even enough to balance the budget may fail to achieve determinacy.

Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to politicaltransitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a windowof opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theoryrequires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. Weuse rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find thatnegative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement indemocratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate thatfollowing a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent,democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and theprobability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentagepoints.

Iowa's Workforce and the Economy, 2008

A discussion of Iowa's key economic indicators as well as commentary on various apsects of the statewide econony.

How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Recent evidence from Spanish regions

In recent years, Spain has received unprecedented immigration flows. Between 2001 and 2006 the fraction of the population born abroad more than doubled, increasing from4.8% to 10.8%. For Spanish provinces with above-median inflows (relative to population),immigration increased by 24% the number of high school dropouts while only increasingcollege graduates by 11%. We study different channels by which regional labor markets haveabsorbed the large increase in relative supply of low educated workers. We identify theexogenous supply shock using historical immigrant settlement patterns by country of origin.Using data from the Labor Force Survey and the decennial Census, we find a large expansion ofemployment in high immigration regions. Disaggregating by industry, the absorption operatedthrough large increases in the share of low-educated workers, compared to the same industry inlow-immigration regions. We do not find changes in sectoral specialization. Overall, andperhaps surprisingly, the pattern of absorption is very similar to the one found in the US.

What is the importance of open habitat in a predominantly closed forest area to the dung beetle (Coleoptera, Scarabaeinae) assemblage?

What is the importance of open habitat in a predominantly closed forest to the dung beetle assemblage? The Atlantic Forest in Brazil is one of the most highly disturbed ecosystems and is mainly represented by fragmented areas. However, in places where human disturbances have ceased, certain areas are showing a natural regeneration pattern. The aim of the present study was to determine how the dung beetle assemblage responds to distinct habitat structures in a fragment of Atlantic Forest. For such, open and closed forest areas were sampled in a fragment of the Atlantic Forest in the northeastern region of Brazil. Pitfall traps baited with excrement and carrion were used to collect the beetles. A total of 7,267 individuals belonging to 35 species were captured. Canthon chalybaeus and C. mutabilis were restricted to open areas. Nearly 90% of the individuals of C. aff. simulans and Deltochilum aff. irroratum were identified in these areas. A higher percentage (> 50%) of Canthon staigi, Dichotomius aff. depressicolis and D. aff. sericeus occurred in closed areas. Abundance differed between areas, with higher values in closed areas. Richness was not influenced by the habitat structure. NMDS ordination exhibited the segregation of areas and ANOSIM confirmed that this variable explained the assemblage of dung beetle species. The findings of the present study validate that open areas are associated to more restrictive conditions, limiting a higher abundance of dung beetle. Although situated near preserved fragments, the studied open areas increase the heterogeneity of the general landscape.