Long-term variations in the open solar flux and possible links to Earth’s climate

Recent paleoclimate studies provide strong evidence for an association between cosmogenic isotope production and Earth’s climate throughout the holecene. These isotopes are generated by the bombardment of Earth’s atmosphere by galactic cosmic rays, the fluxes of which vary in approximately inverse proportion to the total open magnetic flux of the Sun. This paper discusses how results from the Ulysses spacecraft allow us to quantify the open solar flux from observations of near-Earth interplanetary space and to study its long-term variations using the homogeneous record of geomagnetic activity. A study of the results and of their accuracy is presented. The two proposed mechanisms that could lead to the open solar flux being a good proxy for solar-induced climate change are discussed: the first is the modulation of the production of some types of cloud by the air ions produced by cosmic rays; the second is a variation in the total or spectral solar irradiance, in association with changes in the open flux. Some implications for our understanding of anthropogenic climate change are discussed.

Long term changes in EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere as measured by the response of the Earth’s ionosphere during total solar eclipses from 1932 to 1999

Measurements of the ionospheric E region during total solar eclipses in the period 1932-1999 have been used to investigate the fraction of Extreme Ultra Violet and soft X-ray radiation, phi, that is emitted from the limb corona and chromosphere. The relative apparent sizes of the Moon and the Sun are different for each eclipse, and techniques are presented which correct the measurements and, therefore, allow direct comparisons between different eclipses. The results show that the fraction of ionising radiation emitted by the limb corona has a clear solar cycle variation and that the underlying trend shows this fraction has been increasing since 1932. Data from the SOHO spacecraft are used to study the effects of short-term variability and it is shown that the observed long-term rise in phi has a negligible probability of being a chance occurrence.

Long-term variations in the magnetic field of the Sun and possible implications for terrestrial climate

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" or "open" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation is reflected in studies of the heliospheric field using isotopes deposited in ice sheets and meteorites by the action of galactic comic rays. The variation has also been reproduced using a model that demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. The cosmic ray flux at energies > 3 GeV is found to have decayed by about 15% during the 20(th) century (and by about 4% at > 13 GeV). We show that the changes in the open flux do reflect changes in the photospheric and sub-surface field which offers an explanation of why open flux appears to be a good proxy for solar irradiance extrapolation. Correlations between F-s, solar cycle length, L, and 11-year smoothed sunspot number, R-11, explain why the various irradiance reconstructions for the last 150 years are similar in form. Possible implications of the inferred changes in cosmic ray flux and irradiance for global temperatures on Earth are discussed.

Long-term drift of the coronal source magnetic flux and the total solar irradiance

We test the method of Lockwood et al. [1999] for deriving the coronal source flux from the geomagnetic aa index and show it to be accurate to within 12% for annual means and 4.5% for averages over a sunspot cycle. Using data from four solar constant monitors during 1981-1995, we find a linear relationship between this magnetic flux and the total solar irradiance. From this correlation, we show that the 131% rise in the mean coronal source field over the interval 1901-1995 corresponds to a rise in the average total solar irradiance of {\Delta}I = 1.65 +/- 0.23 Wm^{-2}.

Long-term conditioning of soil by plantation eucalypts and pines does not affect growth of the native jarrah tree

Plant species can condition the physico-chemical and biological properties of soil in ways that modify plant growth via plant–soil feedback (PSF). Plant growth can be positively affected, negatively affected or neutrally affected by soil conditioning by the same or other plant species. Soil conditioning by other plant species has particular relevance to ecological restoration of historic ecosystems because sites set aside for restoration are often conditioned by other, potentially non-native, plant species. We investigated changes in properties of jarrah forest soils after long-term (35 years) conditioning by pines (Pinus radiata), Sydney blue gums (Eucalyptus saligna), both non-native, plantation trees, and jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata; dominant native tree). Then, we tested the influence of the conditioned soils on the growth of jarrah seedlings. Blue gums and pines similarly conditioned the physico-chemical properties of soils, which differed from soil conditioning caused by jarrah. Especially important were the differences in conditioning of the properties C:N ratio, pH, and available K. The two eucalypt species similarly conditioned the biological properties of soil (i.e. community level physiological profile, numbers of fungal-feeding nematodes, omnivorous nematodes, and nematode channel ratio), and these differed from conditioning caused by pines. Species-specific conditioning of soil did not translate into differences in the amounts of biomass produced by jarrah seedlings and a neutral PSF was observed. In summary, we found that decades of soil conditioning by non-native plantation trees did not influence the growth of jarrah seedlings and will therefore not limit restoration of jarrah following the removal of the plantation trees.

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.

Kazakhstan: long-term economic growth and the role of the oil sector

This study combines a narrative and modelling framework to analyse the development of Kazakhstan’s oil sector since its takeoff following separation from the USSR. As in the case of other emerging or transitional countries with large natural resource endowments, a key question is whether the exploitation of the natural resource is a benefit to longer term economic development: is it a curse, a blessing – or neither? Narrative evidence suggests that the establishment of good governance, in terms of institutions and policies, provides a background to sound long-term development, especially if combined with the development of sectors outside the natural resource sector, for example diversification into manufacturing and services, often through attracting FDI. The narrative is supported by econometric modelling of the relationship between domestic output, overseas output and exports of oil, which finds in favour of a sustained positive effect of oil exports on GDP. The model then provides a basis for projection of the growth in GDP given a consensus view of likely developments in the oil price.

Use of the mini nutritional assessment tool in elderly people from long-term institutions of southeast of Brazil

Background: the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) is a multidimensional method of nutritional evaluation that allows the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in elderly people, it is important to mention that this method has not been well studied in Brazil. Objective: to verify the use of the MNA in elderly people that has been living in long term institutions for elderly people. Design: transversal study. Participants: 89 people (>= 60 years), being 64.0% men. The average of age for both genders was 73.7 +/- 9.1 years old, being 72.8 +/- 8.9 years old for men, and 75.3 +/- 9.3 years old for women. Setting: long-term institutions for elderly people located in the Southeast of Brazil. Methods: it was calculated the sensibility, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. It was data to set up a ROC curve to verify the accuracy of the MNA. The variable used as a ""standard"" for the nutritional diagnosis of the elderly people was the corrected arm muscle area because it is able to provide information or an estimative of the muscle reserve of a person being considered a good indicator of malnutrition in elderly people. Results: the sensibility was 84.0%, the specificity was 36.0%, the positive predictive value was 77.0%, and the negative predictive value was 47.0%; the area of the ROC curve was 0.71 (71.0%). Conclusion: the MNA method has showed accuracy, and sensibility when dealing with the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in institutionalized elderly groups of the Southeastern region of Brazil, however, it presented a low specificity.

A Substrate Trapping Mutant Form of Striatal-Enriched Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase Prevents Amphetamine-Induced Stereotypies and Long-Term Potentiation in the Striatum

Background: Chronic, intermittent exposure to psychostimulant drugs results in striatal neuroadaptations leading to an increase in an array of behavioral responses on subsequent challenge days. A brain-specific striatal-enriched tyrosine phosphatase (STEP) regulates synaptic strengthening by dephosphorylating and inactivating several key synaptic proteins. This study tests the hypothesis that a substrate-trapping form of STEP will prevent the development of amphetamine-induced stereotypies. Methods: A substrate-trapping STEP protein, TAT-STEP (C-S), was infused into the ventrolateral striatum on each of 5 consecutive exposure days and I hour before amphetamine injection. Animals were challenged to see whether sensitization to the stereotypy-producing effects of amphetamine developed. The same TAT-STEP (C-S) protein was used on acute striatal slices to determine the impact on long-term potentiation and depression. Results: Infusion of TAT-STEP (C-S) blocks the increase of amphetamine-induced stereotypies when given during the 5-day period of sensitization. The TAT-STEP (C-S) has no effect if only infused on the challenge day. Treatment of acute striatal slices with TAT-STEP (C-S) blocks the induction of long-term potentiation and potentates long-term depression. Conclusions: A substrate trapping form of STEP blocks the induction of amphetamine-induced neuroplasticity within the ventrolateral striatum and supports the hypothesis that STEP functions as a tonic break on synaptic strengthening.

Short- and long-term anxiogenic effects induced by a single injection of subconvulsant doses of pilocarpine in rats: investigation of the putative role of hippocampal pathways

Behavioral consequences of convulsive episodes are well documented, but less attention was paid to changes that occur in response to subconvulsant doses of drugs. We investigated short- and long-term effects of a single systemic injection of a subconvulsant dose of pilocarpine on the behavior of rats as evaluated in the elevated plus maze. Pilocarpine induced an anxiogenic-like profile 24 h later, and this effect persisted for up to 3 months (% of time spent on open arms at 24 h, control = 35.47 +/- 3.23; pilocarpine 150 = 8.2 +/- 2.6; 3 months, control = 31.9 +/- 5.5; pilocarpine 150 = 9.3 +/- 4.9). Temporary inactivation of fimbria-fornix with lidocaine 4% promoted an anxiolytic-like effect per se, suggesting a tonic control of this pathway on the modulation of anxiety-related behaviors. Lidocaine also reduced the anxiogenic-like profile of animals tested 1 month after pilocarpine treatment (% of time spent on open arms, saline + phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) = 31.7 + 3.7; saline + lidocaine = 54.4 + 4.7; pilocarpine + PBS = 10.3 + 4.1; pilocarpine + lidocaine = 40.1 + 9.1). To determine whether the anxiogenic-like effect was mediated by septal region or by direct hippocampal projections to the diencephalon, the neural transmission of post-commissural fornix was blocked, and a similar reduction in the anxiogenic-like effect of pilocarpine was observed. Our findings suggest that a single systemic injection of pilocarpine may induce long-lasting anxiogenic-like behavior in rats, an effect that appears to be mediated, in part, through a direct path from hippocampus to medial hypothalamic sites involved in fear responses.

Effects of long-term diabetes on the structure and cell proliferation of the myometrium in the early pregnancy of mice

P>It is known that the development of diabetic complications in human pregnancy is directly related to the severity and the duration of this pathology. In this study, we developed a model of long-term type 1 diabetes to investigate its effects on the cytoarchitecture, extracellular matrix and cell proliferation during the first adaptation phase of the myometrium for pregnancy. A single dose of alloxan was used to induce diabetes in mice prior to pregnancy. To identify the temporal effects of diabetes the mice were divided into two groups: Group D1 (females that became pregnant 90-100 days after alloxan); Group D2 (females that became pregnant 100-110 days after alloxan). Uterine samples were collected after 168 h of pregnancy and processed for light and electron microscopy. In both groups the histomorphometric evaluation showed that diabetes promoted narrowing of the myometrial muscle layers which was correlated with decreased cell proliferation demonstrated by PCNA immunodetection. In D1, diabetes increased the distance between muscle layers and promoted oedema. Contrarily, in D2 the distance between muscle layers decreased and, instead of oedema, there was a markedly deposition of collagen in the myometrium. Ultrastructural analysis showed that diabetes affects the organization of the smooth muscle cells and their myofilaments. Consistently, the immunoreaction for smooth muscle alpha-actin revealed clear disorganization of the contractile apparatus in both diabetic groups. In conclusion, the present model demonstrated that long-term diabetes promotes significant alterations in the myometrium in a time-sensitive manner. Together, these alterations indicate that diabetes impairs the first phenotypic adaptation phase of the pregnant myometrium.

Different mechanisms underlie the effects of acute and long-term inhibition of nitric oxide synthases in antigen-induced pulmonary eosinophil recruitment in BALB/C mice

Nitric oxide synthase (NOS) inhibitors are largely used to evaluate the NO contribution to pulmonary allergy, but contrasting data have been reported. In this study, pharmacological, biochemical and pharmacokinetic assays were performed to compare the effects of acute and long-term treatment of BALB/C mice with the non-selective NOS inhibitor L-NAME in ovalbumin (OVA)-challenged mice. Acute L-NAME treatment (50 mg/kg, gavage) significantly reduced the eosinophil number in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF). The inducible NOS (iNOS) inhibitor aminoguanidine (20 mg/kg/day in the drinking water) also significantly reduced the eosinophil number in BALF In contrast, 3-week L-NAME treatment (50 and 150 mg/kg/day in the drinking water) significantly increased the pulmonary eosinophil influx. The constitutive NOS (cNOS) activity in brain and lungs was reduced by both acute and 3-week L-NAME treatments. The pulmonary iNOS activity was reduced by acute L-NAME (or aminoguanidine), but unaffected by 3-week L-NAME treatment. Acute L-NAME (or aminoguanidine) treatment was more efficient to reduce the NO(x) levels compared with 3-week L-NAME treatment. The pharmacokinetic study revealed that L-NAME is not bioavailable when given orally. After acute L-NAME intake, serum concentrations of the metabolite N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine decreased from 30 min to 24 h. In the 3-week L-NAME treatment, the N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine concentration was close to the detection limit. In conclusion, 3-week treatment with L-NAME yields low serum N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine concentrations, causing preferential inhibition of cNOS activity. Therefore, eosinophil influx potentiation by 3-week L-NAME treatment may reflect removal of protective cNOS-derived NO, with no interference on the ongoing inflammation due to iNOS-derived NO. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework

In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. in this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.