The Australian mortality decline: cause-specific mortality 1907-1990

This review describes the changes in composition of mortality by major attributed cause during the Australian mortality decline this century. The principal categories employed were: infectious diseases, nonrheumatic cardiovascular disease, external causes, cancer,'other' causes and ill-defined conditions. The data were age-adjusted. Besides registration problems (which also affect all-cause mortality) artefacts due to changes in diagnostic designation and coding-are evident. The most obvious trends over the period are the decline in infectious disease mortality (half the decline 1907-1990 occurs before 1949), and the epidemic of circulatory disease mortality which appears to commence around 1930, peaks during the 1950s and 1960s, and declines from 1970 to 1990 (to a rate half that at the peak). Mortality for cancer remains static for females after 1907, but increases steadily for males, reaching a plateau in the mid-1980s (owing to trends in lung cancer); trends in cancers of individual sites are diverse. External cause mortality declines after 1970. The decline in total mortality to 1930 is associated with decline in infection and 'other' causes, Stagnation of mortality decline in 1930-1940 and 1946-1970 for males is a consequence of contemporaneous movements in opposite directions of infection mortality (decrease) and circulatory disease and cancer mortality (increase). In females, declines in infections and 'other' causes of death exceed the increase in circulatory disease mortality until 1960, then stability in all major causes of death to 1970. The overall mortality decline since 1970 is a consequence of a reduction in circulatory disease,'other' cause, external cause and infection mortality, despite the increase in cancer mortality (for males).

Comparative labor market performance of visaed and non-visaed migrants: Pacific islanders in Sydney

Using survey data for Tongan and Samoan migrants in Sydney the effects of visa restrictions on labor market performance of migrants are assessed. Univariate analysis suggests a positive association between unemployment and the unrestricted entry of Samoan step-migrants from New Zealand. A probit model of the determinants of unemployment is estimated with controls for human capital and demographic variables. While human capital endowments are important, visa restrictions do not have a significant effect on either group's employability. Implications for policy are discussed highlighting the complementarities between host country immigration policies and foreign aid programs.

Sources of information about HIV/AIDS and perceived risk of infection among heterosexual young adults: 1989 and 1994

This paper reports a study of sources of information about HIV/AIDS and trust of the sources among heterosexuals in 1989 (113 females and 91 males) and 1994 (185 females and 66 males). We also examined whether perceived personal risk of HIV infection was predicted by sources of information about HIV/AIDS, trust of the sources, how informed about AIDS people believed they were, and perceived risk of infection to others, as well as whether there was a relationship between perceived personal risk and safe sex behaviour Participants received most of their information about AIDS/HIV from magazines, newspapers, and television, but placed most trust on sources such as doctors and HIV/AIDS organisations. Perceived personal risk was influenced most by perceived risk to friends and to people with the same sexual practices. In the 1994 sample, perceived personal risk was correlated with the amount of condom use among participants with sexual experience. These results indicate ther has been. relative stability across a five-year period. They also point to the continuing discrepancy among young heterosexuals between the most-used and most-trusted sources of information, as well as to the importance of peer influence on perceptions of personal risk of HIV infection.

Phosphorylation of the C-terminal sites of human p53 reduces non-sequence-specific DNA binding as modeled with synthetic peptides

Phosphorylation of the tumor suppressor p53 is generally thought to modify the properties of the protein in four of its five independent domains. We used synthetic peptides to directly study the effects of phosphorylation on the non-sequence-specific DNA binding and conformation of the C-terminal, basic domain. The peptides corresponded to amino acids 361-393 and were either nonphosphorylated or phosphorylated at the protein kinase C (PKC) site, Ser378, or the casein kinase II (CKII) site, Ser392, or bis-phosphorylated on both the PKC and the CKII sites. A fluorescence polarization analysis revealed that either the recombinant p53 protein or the synthetic peptides bound to two unrelated target DNA fragments. Phosphorylation of the peptide at the PKC or the CKII sites clearly decreased DNA binding, and addition of a second phosphate group almost completely abolished binding. Circular dichroism spectroscopy showed that the peptides assumed identical unordered structures in aqueous solutions. The unmodified peptide, unlike the Ser378 phosphorylated peptide, changed conformation in the presence of DNA. The inherent ability of the peptides to form an alpha-helix could be detected when circular dichroism and nuclear magnetic resonance spectra were: taken in trifluoroethanol-water mixtures. A single or double phosphorylation destabilized the helix around the phosphorylated Ser378 residue but stabilized the helix downstream in the sequence.

Suicide in urban New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994: Socio-economic and migrant interactions

Variation of suicide with socio-economic status (SES) in urban NSW (Australia) during 1985-1994, by sex and country or region of birth, was examined using Poisson regression analysis of vital statistics and population data (age greater than or similar to 15 yr). Quintiles of SES were defined by municipality of residence and comparisons of suicide by SES were adjusted for age and country (or region) of birth (COB), and examined by COB. Risk of suicide in females was 28% that of males for all adults and 21% for youth (age 15-24 yr). Suicide risk was lower in males from southern Europe, Middle East and Asia, and higher in northern and eastern European males, compared to the Australian-born. Risks for suicide increased significantly with decreasing SES in males, but not in females. The relationship of male suicide and SES was stronger when controlled for COB. For males, the relative risk of suicide, adjusted for age and COB, was 66% higher in the lowest SES quintile compared to the highest quintile, and 39% higher for youth (age 15-24 yr). For male suicide, the population attributable fraction for SES (less than the highest quintile) was 27%. Analysis of SES differentials in male suicide according to COB indicated a significant inverse suicide gradient in relation to SES for the Australian-born and those burn in New Zealand and the United Kingdom or fire. but not in non-English speaking COB groups, except for Asia. For Australian-born males, suicide risk was 71% higher in the lowest SES group (compared to the highest), adjusted for age. These findings indicate that SES plays an important role in male suicide rates among the Australian-born and migrants from English-speaking countries and Asia, and among youth; but not in female suicide, nor suicide in most non-English speaking migrant groups. Reduction in SES differentials through economic and social policies may reduce male suicide in lower SES groups and should be seen to be at least as important as individual level interventions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of three-dimensional folds for a non-Newtonian plate in a viscous medium

We derive analytical solutions for the three-dimensional time-dependent buckling of a non-Newtonian viscous plate in a less viscous medium. For the plate we assume a power-law rheology. The principal, axes of the stretching D-ij in the homogeneously deformed ground state are parallel and orthogonal to the bounding surfaces of the plate in the flat state. In the model formulation the action of the less viscous medium is replaced by equivalent reaction forces. The reaction forces are assumed to be parallel to the normal vector of the deformed plate surfaces. As a consequence, the buckling process is driven by the differences between the in-plane stresses and out of plane stress, and not by the in-plane stresses alone as assumed in previous models. The governing differential equation is essentially an orthotropic plate equation for rate dependent material, under biaxial pre-stress, supported by a viscous medium. The differential problem is solved by means of Fourier transformation and largest growth coefficients and corresponding wavenumbers are evaluated. We discuss in detail fold evolutions for isotropic in-plane stretching (D-11 = D-22), uniaxial plane straining (D-22 = 0) and in-plane flattening (D-11 = -2D(22)). Three-dimensional plots illustrate the stages of fold evolution for random initial perturbations or initial embryonic folds with axes non-parallel to the maximum compression axis. For all situations, one dominant set of folds develops normal to D-11, although the dominant wavelength differs from the Biot dominant wavelength except when the plate has a purely Newtonian viscosity. However, in the direction parallel to D-22, there exist infinitely many modes in the vicinity of the dominant wavelength which grow only marginally slower than the one corresponding to the dominant wavelength. This means that, except for very special initial conditions, the appearance of a three-dimensional fold will always be governed by at least two wavelengths. The wavelength in the direction parallel to D-11 is the dominant wavelength, and the wavelength(s) in the direction parallel to D-22 is determined essentially by the statistics of the initial state. A comparable sensitivity to the initial geometry does not exist in the classic two-dimensional folding models. In conformity with tradition we have applied Kirchhoff's hypothesis to constrain the cross-sectional rotations of the plate. We investigate the validity of this hypothesis within the framework of Reissner's plate theory. We also include a discussion of the effects of adding elasticity into the constitutive relations and show that there exist critical ratios of the relaxation times of the plate and the embedding medium for which two dominant wavelengths develop, one at ca. 2.5 of the classical Biot dominant wavelength and the other at ca. 0.45 of this wavelength. We propose that herein lies the origin of parasitic folds well known in natural examples.

T cell-mediated and non-specific inflammatory mechanisms contribute to the skin pathology of HPV 16 E6E7 transgenic mice

One of three lines of mice transgenic for the E6 and E7 genes of human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) expressed from an alpha A-crystallin promoter also expresses the transgene ectopically in the skin. This line, designated alpha ACE6E7#19, develops skin disease from 3 months of age, characterised by epidermal hyperplasia and eventual skin loss. Administration of complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA) to alpha ACE6E7#19 mice, but not to nontransgenic littermate controls, induced local epidermal hyperplasia which was histologically similar to the spontaneously arising skin pathology. Local application of 2,4-dinitrochlorobenzene (DNCB) to DNCB-sensitised aACE6E7#19 mice, but not DNCB-sensitised controls, also induced hyperplasia. Treatment with cyclosporin A (CsA) or systemic depletion of CD4+ cells significantly reduced the incidence of skin disease. These data suggest that local inflammation, and cytokines produced by T helper cells, contribute to the induction of hyperplastic skin disease in alpha ACE6E7#19 mice. Spontaneous skin disease with similar histological appearance, frequency, age of onset and severity in alpha ACE6E7#19 mice was observed in scid-/- aACE6E7#19 mice, despite immune paresis. Antigen-specific immune responses and T-cell cytokines a re therefore not necessary for the induction of skin disease. We propose that epidermal hyperplasia associated with HPV16 E6 and E7 expression in skin is accelerated by local secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines, whose production can be enhanced by activated CD4+ T cells.

A case-control study of employment status and mortality in a cohort of Australian youth

Recent studies have demonstrated a link in young populations between unemployment and ill health. The purpose of this study is to correlate mortality with employment status in two cohorts of young Australian males, aged 17-25 years, from 1984 to 1988. Two youth cohorts consisting of an initially unemployed sample (n = 1424 males) and a population sample (n = 4573 males), were surveyed annually throughout the study period. Those lost to follow-up during the survey period were matched with death registries across Australia. Employment status was determined from weekly diaries and death certificates and was designated as: employed or student; unemployed; not in the work force (excluding students). Conditional logistic regression, using age- and cohort- matched cases (deaths) and controls (alive), was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of dying with regard to employment status, taking into account potential confounders such as ethnicity, aboriginality, educational attainment, pre-existing health problems, socio-economic status of parents, and other factors. Twenty three male survey respondents were positively matched to death registry records. Compared to those employed or students (referent group), significantly elevated ORs were found to be associated with neither being in the workforce nor a student for all cause, external cause, and external cause mortality other than suicide. Odds ratios were adjusted for age, survey cohort, ethnicity, pre-existing physical and mental health status, education level, and socio-economic status of parent(s). A statistically significant increasing linear trend in odds ratios of male mortality for most cause groups was found across the employment categories, from those employed or student (lowest ORs), through those unemployed; to those not in the workforce (highest ORs). Suicide was higher, but not statistically significantly, in those unemployed or not in the workforce. Suicide also was associated, though not significantly, with the respondent not living with their parents when they were 14 years of age. No association was found between mortality and past unemployment experience, as measured by length of time spent unemployed, or the number of spells of unemployment experienced during the survey. The results of this study underscore the elevated risk to survival in young males as a consequence of being neither employed nor a student. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Opioid overdose mortality in Australia, 1964-1997: birth-cohort trends

Objective: To examine trends in rates of opioid overdose deaths from 1964 to 1997 in different birth cohorts. Design: Age-period-cohort analysis of national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Main outcome measures: Annual population rates of death attributed to opioid dependence or accidental opioid poisoning in people aged 15-44 years, by sex and birth cohort tin five-year intervals, 1940-1944 to 1975-1979). Results: The rate of opioid overdose deaths increased 55-fold between 1964 and 1997, from 1.3 to 71.5 per million population aged 15-44 years. The rate of opioid overdose deaths also increased substantially over the eight birth cohorts, with an incidence rate ratio of 20.70 (95% confidence interval, 13.60-31.46) in the 1975-1979 cohort compared with the 1940-1944 cohort. The age at which the cumulative rate of opioid overdose deaths reached 300 per million fell in successive cohorts (for men, from 28 years among those born 1955-1959 to 22 years among those born 1965-1974; for women, from 33 years among those born 1955-1959 to 27 years among those born 1965-1969). Conclusions: Heroin use in Australia largely began in the early 1970s and rates of heroin use have markedly increased in birth cohorts born since 1950.

Relapse and mortality among HIV-infected and uninfected patients with tuberculosis successfully treated with twice weekly directly observed therapy in rural South Africa

Objective: To determine post-treatment relapse and mortality rates among HIV-infected and uninfected patients with tuberculosis treated with a twice-weekly drug regimen under direct observation (DOT). Setting: Hlabisa, South Africa. Patients: A group of 403 patients with tuberculosis (53% HIV infected) cured following treatment with isoniazid (H), rifampicin (R), pyrazinamide (Z) and ethambutol (E) given in hospital (median 17 days), followed by HRZE twice weekly to 2 months and HR twice weekly to 6 months in the community under DOT. Methods: Relapses were identified through hospital readmission and 6-monthly home visits. Relapse (culture for Mycobacterium tuberculosis) and mortality given as rates per 100 person-years observation (PYO) stratified by HIV status and history of previous tuberculosis treatment. Results: Mean (SD) post-treatment follow-up was 1.2 (0.4) years (total PYO = 499); 78 patients (19%) left the area, 58 (14%) died, 248 (62%) remained well and 19 (5%) relapsed. Relapse rates in HIV-infected and uninfected patients were 3.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-6.3] and 3.6 (95% CI 1.1-6.1) per 100 PYO (P = 0.7). Probability of relapse at 18 months was estimated as 5% in each group. Mortality was four-fold higher among HIV-infected patients (17.8 and 4.4 deaths per 100 PYO for HIV-infected and uninfected patients, respectively; P < 0.0001). Probability of survival at 24 months was estimated as 59% and 81%, respectively. We observed no increase in relapse or mortality among previously treated patients compared with new patients. A positive smear at 2 months did not predict relapse or mortality. Conclusion: Relapse rates are acceptably low following successful DOT with a twice weekly rifampifin-containing regimen, irrespective of HIV status and previous treatment history. Mortality is substantially increased among HIV-infected patients even following successful DOT and this requires further attention. (C) 1999 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Gene transfer and expression of a non-viral polycation-based vector in CD4(+) cells

CD4-selective targeting of an antibody-polycation-DNA complex was investigated The complex was synthesized with the anti-CD4 monoclonal antibody B-F5, polylysine(268) (pLL) and either the pGL3 control vector containing the luciferase reporter gene or the pGeneGrip vector containing the green fluorescent protein (GFP) gene. B-F5-pLL-DNA complexes inhibited the binding of I-125-B-F5 to CD4(+) Jurkat cells, while complexes synthesised either without B-F5 or using a non-specific mouse IgG1 antibody had little or no effect Expression of the luciferase reporter gene was achieved in Jurkat cells using the B-F5-pLL-pGL3 complex and was enhanced in the presence of PMA. Negligible luciferase activity was defected with the non-specific antibody complex in Jurkat cells or with the B-F5-pLL-pGL3 complex in the CD4(-) K-562 cells. Using complexes synthesised with the pGeneGrip vector, the transfection efficiency in Jurkat and K-562 cells was examined using confocal microscopy. More than 95% of Jurkat cells expressed GFP and the level of this expression was markedly enhanced by PMA. Negligible GFP expression was seen in K-562 cells or when B-F5 was replaced by a nonspecific antibody. Using flow cytometry, fluorescein-labelled complex showed specific targeting to CD4(+) cells in a mixed cell population from human peripheral blood. These studies demonstrate the selective transfection of CD4(+) T-lymphoid cells using a polycation-based gene delivery system. The complex may provide a means of delivering anti-HIV gene therapies to CD4(+) cells in vivo.

Do simple prudent health behaviours protect men from myocardial infarction?

Background We tested whether behaviours such as discarding obvious fat on meat, cessation of smoking, avoidance of passive smoking, habitual use of reduced fat milk, prudent consumption of alcohol and regular but moderate physical exercise are associated with a reduction of cardiovascular risk. Methods This was a population-based case-control study done in Perth, Western Australia. The cases (n = 336) were men aged 27-64 years with a first-ever acute myocardial infarction (AMI) during the period 1992-1993, and who survived at least 28 days. The controls (n = 735) were participants in a population-based survey of cardiovascular risk factors conducted during May-November 1994. Both groups completed the same questionnaire and the data were analysed with multiple logistic regression using backward elimination technique. Results Among men aged 27-64 years simple measures such as participation in non-vigorous exercise (odds ratio [OR] = 0.5, 95% CI : 0.4-0.7), and avoidance of added salt (OR = 0.6, 95% CI : 0.4-0.9) are associated with significant and Important protection from AMI. Conclusion After 25 years of falling mortality in Australia, lifestyles can still be significantly improved to reduce heart disease even further.

Inhibition of settlement and metamorphosis of the ascidian Herdmania curvata by non-geniculate coralline algae

The surfaces of non-geniculate coralline algae (NCA) are known to induce the settlement and metamorphosis of disparate marine taxa. In this study we investigate the responsiveness of larvae of Herdmania curvata (Ascidiacea: Stolidobranchia) to three species of NCA (Neo-goniolithon brassica-florida, Hydrolithon onkodes, and Lithothamnium prolifer) that cohabit the slope and crest of Heron Reef, Great Barrier Reef. H. curvata larvae were first exposed to these NCA at or within 2 h of hatching, which is 1 to 2 h prior to attaining competence, and then cultured continuously with the NCA for 12 to 14 h. Rates of settlement and metamorphosis of H, curvata cultured in laboratory chambers in the presence of the different NCA were significantly lower than spontaneous rates in seawater. The limited settlement in treatments containing NCA were confined entirely to the chamber periphery, and settlement never occurred on the surface of the NCA. The inhibitory effect was dose-dependent and was stronger in H. brassica-florida and H. onkodes than in L. prolifer. Larvae that did not settle in treatments with NCA had rounded anterior trunks and, in extreme cases, kinked tails with rounded and dissociated tail muscle cells. In some individuals, we observed the anterior chemosensory papillae being sloughed off the larval body. Morphological analysis of trunk ectodermal and mesenchymal nuclei of larvae cultured in the presence of the NCA revealed that general necrotic cell death was occurring. Importantly, H. curvata larvae that were exposed to NCA could not subsequently be induced to metamorphose in KCl-elevated seawater, whereas larvae not exposed to NCA metamorphosed at high rates in KCl-elevated seawater.