920 resultados para New Keynesian model, Bayesian methods, Monetary policy, Great Inflation
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CoDeSys "Controller Development Systems" is a development environment for programming in the area of automation controllers. It is an open source solution completely in line with the international industrial standard IEC 61131-3. All five programming languages for application programming as defined in IEC 61131-3 are available in the development environment. These features give professionals greater flexibility with regard to programming and allow control engineers have the ability to program for many different applications in the languages in which they feel most comfortable. Over 200 manufacturers of devices from different industrial sectors offer intelligent automation devices with a CoDeSys programming interface. In 2006, version 3 was released with new updates and tools. One of the great innovations of the new version of CoDeSys is object oriented programming. Object oriented programming (OOP) offers great advantages to the user for example when wanting to reuse existing parts of the application or when working on one application with several developers. For this reuse can be prepared a source code with several well known parts and this is automatically generated where necessary in a project, users can improve then the time/cost/quality management. Until now in version 2 it was necessary to have hardware interface called “Eni-Server” to have access to the generated XML code. Another of the novelties of the new version is a tool called Export PLCopenXML. This tool makes it possible to export the open XML code without the need of specific hardware. This type of code has own requisites to be able to comply with the standard described above. With XML code and with the knowledge how it works it is possible to do component-oriented development of machines with modular programming in an easy way. Eplan Engineering Center (EEC) is a software tool developed by Mind8 GmbH & Co. KG that allows configuring and generating automation projects. Therefore it uses modules of PLC code. The EEC already has a library to generate code for CoDeSys version 2. For version 3 and the constant innovation of drivers by manufacturers, it is necessary to implement a new library in this software. Therefore it is important to study the XML export to be then able to design any type of machine. The purpose of this master thesis is to study the new version of the CoDeSys XML taking into account all aspects and impact on the existing CoDeSys V2 models and libraries in the company Harro Höfliger Verpackungsmaschinen GmbH. For achieve this goal a small sample named “Traffic light” in CoDeSys version 2 will be done and then, using the tools of the new version it there will be a project with version 3 and also the EEC implementation for the automatically generated code.
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No centro desta reflexão teórica situa-se a conjuntura sociopolítica que fez (re)emergir o 1.º ciclo do ensino básico como “problema” de política educativa, ou seja, como terreno prioritário para o Estado, através do Governo, formular e executar um “modelo” de operacionalização da política de “Escola a Tempo Inteiro” (ETI). Analisamos esta política reportando-a a referenciais de representação de um “novo modelo educativo” (dimensão educativa), de um “novo paradigma de escola pública” (dimensão política) e de uma “nova conceção de administração da educação” (dimensão administrativa). O recurso ao quadro heurístico da “análise das políticas públicas” permite pôr em evidência as representações e a ação governativas.
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Model updating methods often neglect that in fact all physical structures are damped. Such simplification relies on the structural modelling approach, although it compromises the accuracy of the predictions of the structural dynamic behaviour. In the present work, the authors address the problem of finite element (FE) model updating based on measured frequency response functions (FRFs), considering damping. The proposed procedure is based upon the complex experimental data, which contains information related to the damped FE model parameters and presents the advantage of requiring no prior knowledge about the damping matrix structure or its content, only demanding the definition of the damping type. Numerical simulations are performed in order to establish the applicability of the proposed damped FE model updating technique and its results are discussed in terms of the correlation between the simulated experimental complex FRFs and the ones obtained from the updated FE model.
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Considering that recent european high-speed railway system has a traction power system of kV 50 Hz, which causes electromagnetic emission for the outside world, it is important to dimension the railway system emissions, using a frequency/distance dependent propagation model. This paper presents an enhanced theoretical model for VLF to UHF propagation, railway system oriented. It introduces the near field approach (crucial in low frequency propagation) and also considers the source characteristics and type of measuring antenna. Simulations are presented, and comparisons are set with earlier far field models. Using the developed model, a real case study was performed in partnership with Refer Telecom (portuguese telecom operator for railways). The new propagation model was used in order to predict the future high-speed railway electromagnetic emissions in the Lisbon north track. The results show the model's prediction capabilities and also its applicability to realistic scenarios.
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Optimization problems arise in science, engineering, economy, etc. and we need to find the best solutions for each reality. The methods used to solve these problems depend on several factors, including the amount and type of accessible information, the available algorithms for solving them, and, obviously, the intrinsic characteristics of the problem. There are many kinds of optimization problems and, consequently, many kinds of methods to solve them. When the involved functions are nonlinear and their derivatives are not known or are very difficult to calculate, these methods are more rare. These kinds of functions are frequently called black box functions. To solve such problems without constraints (unconstrained optimization), we can use direct search methods. These methods do not require any derivatives or approximations of them. But when the problem has constraints (nonlinear programming problems) and, additionally, the constraint functions are black box functions, it is much more difficult to find the most appropriate method. Penalty methods can then be used. They transform the original problem into a sequence of other problems, derived from the initial, all without constraints. Then this sequence of problems (without constraints) can be solved using the methods available for unconstrained optimization. In this chapter, we present a classification of some of the existing penalty methods and describe some of their assumptions and limitations. These methods allow the solving of optimization problems with continuous, discrete, and mixing constraints, without requiring continuity, differentiability, or convexity. Thus, penalty methods can be used as the first step in the resolution of constrained problems, by means of methods that typically are used by unconstrained problems. We also discuss a new class of penalty methods for nonlinear optimization, which adjust the penalty parameter dynamically.
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Constrained nonlinear optimization problems are usually solved using penalty or barrier methods combined with unconstrained optimization methods. Another alternative used to solve constrained nonlinear optimization problems is the lters method. Filters method, introduced by Fletcher and Ley er in 2002, have been widely used in several areas of constrained nonlinear optimization. These methods treat optimization problem as bi-objective attempts to minimize the objective function and a continuous function that aggregates the constraint violation functions. Audet and Dennis have presented the rst lters method for derivative-free nonlinear programming, based on pattern search methods. Motivated by this work we have de- veloped a new direct search method, based on simplex methods, for general constrained optimization, that combines the features of the simplex method and lters method. This work presents a new variant of these methods which combines the lters method with other direct search methods and are proposed some alternatives to aggregate the constraint violation functions.
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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Sistemas de Informação Industriais, Engenharia Electrotécnica, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
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All over the world, the liberalization of electricity markets, which follows different paradigms, has created new challenges for those involved in this sector. In order to respond to these challenges, electric power systems suffered a significant restructuring in its mode of operation and planning. This restructuring resulted in a considerable increase of the electric sector competitiveness. Particularly, the Ancillary Services (AS) market has been target of constant renovations in its operation mode as it is a targeted market for the trading of services, which have as main objective to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. In this way, with the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources including distributed generation, demand response, storage units and electric vehicles, it is essential to develop new smarter and hierarchical methods of operation of electric power systems. As these resources are mostly connected to the distribution network, it is important to consider the introduction of this kind of resources in AS delivery in order to achieve greater reliability and cost efficiency of electrical power systems operation. The main contribution of this work is the design and development of mechanisms and methodologies of AS market and for energy and AS joint market, considering different management entities of transmission and distribution networks. Several models developed in this work consider the most common AS in the liberalized market environment: Regulation Down; Regulation Up; Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve. The presented models consider different rules and ways of operation, such as the division of market by network areas, which allows the congestion management of interconnections between areas; or the ancillary service cascading process, which allows the replacement of AS of superior quality by lower quality of AS, ensuring a better economic performance of the market. A major contribution of this work is the development an innovative methodology of market clearing process to be used in the energy and AS joint market, able to ensure viable and feasible solutions in markets, where there are technical constraints in the transmission network involving its division into areas or regions. The proposed method is based on the determination of Bialek topological factors and considers the contribution of the dispatch for all services of increase of generation (energy, Regulation Up, Spinning and Non-Spinning reserves) in network congestion. The use of Bialek factors in each iteration of the proposed methodology allows limiting the bids in the market while ensuring that the solution is feasible in any context of system operation. Another important contribution of this work is the model of the contribution of distributed energy resources in the ancillary services. In this way, a Virtual Power Player (VPP) is considered in order to aggregate, manage and interact with distributed energy resources. The VPP manages all the agents aggregated, being able to supply AS to the system operator, with the main purpose of participation in electricity market. In order to ensure their participation in the AS, the VPP should have a set of contracts with the agents that include a set of diversified and adapted rules to each kind of distributed resource. All methodologies developed and implemented in this work have been integrated into the MASCEM simulator, which is a simulator based on a multi-agent system that allows to study complex operation of electricity markets. In this way, the developed methodologies allow the simulator to cover more operation contexts of the present and future of the electricity market. In this way, this dissertation offers a huge contribution to the AS market simulation, based on models and mechanisms currently used in several real markets, as well as the introduction of innovative methodologies of market clearing process on the energy and AS joint market. This dissertation presents five case studies; each one consists of multiple scenarios. The first case study illustrates the application of AS market simulation considering several bids of market players. The energy and ancillary services joint market simulation is exposed in the second case study. In the third case study it is developed a comparison between the simulation of the joint market methodology, in which the player bids to the ancillary services is considered by network areas and a reference methodology. The fourth case study presents the simulation of joint market methodology based on Bialek topological distribution factors applied to transmission network with 7 buses managed by a TSO. The last case study presents a joint market model simulation which considers the aggregation of small players to a VPP, as well as complex contracts related to these entities. The case study comprises a distribution network with 33 buses managed by VPP, which comprises several kinds of distributed resources, such as photovoltaic, CHP, fuel cells, wind turbines, biomass, small hydro, municipal solid waste, demand response, and storage units.
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The painting activity is one of the most complex and important activities in automobile manufacturing. The inherent complexity of the painting activity and the frequent need for repainting usually turn the painting process into a bottleneck in automobile assembly plants, which is reflected in higher operating costs and longer overall cycle times. One possible approach for optimizing the performance of the paint shop is to improve the efficiency of the color planning. This can be accomplished by evaluating the relative merits of a set of vehicle painting plans. Since this problem has a multicriteria nature, we resort to the multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodology to tackle it. A recent trend in the MCDA field is the development of hybrid approaches that are used to achieve operational synergies between different methods. Here we apply, for the first time, an integrated approach that combines the strengths of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), aided by Geometrical Analysis for Interactive Aid (GAIA), to the problem of assessing alternative vehicle painting plans. The management of the assembly plant found the results of value and is currently using them in order to schedule the painting activities such that an enhancement of the operational efficiency of the paint shop is obtained. This efficiency gain has allowed the management to bid for a new automobile model to be assembled at this specific plant.
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Num contexto global de incerteza, as cadeias de abastecimento mais ágeis e os clientes com mais exigências manifestam uma constante preocupação com a melhoria contínua da eficiência das operações logísticas. O presente projeto foi desenvolvido na empresa Sonae Modelo Continente Hipermercados, S.A, uma das duas principais empresas do retalho da grande distribuição alimentar em Portugal. Sendo a logística um fator chave de sucesso, uma das atividades críticas de uma empresa, é identificada a oportunidade de melhoria operacional do processo de negócio, a partir das reclamações dos clientes internos. O tratamento destas reclamações, incidências, é de grande complexidade e responsabilidade para a área do Logistics Customer Service. O projeto desenvolvido, a ‘Reengenharia do processo de reclamações das Lojas’, surgiu da necessidade de criar um modelo e processo de negócio de melhoria contínua, que solucione falhas operacionais com implicação na Logística, Supply Chain e em outras áreas da empresa. A procura dessa melhoria é o objetivo deste trabalho. Pretende-se, com a proposta aqui apresentada, a interligação e automatização da cadeia abastecimento, para superar as ocorrências operacionais, elevar a qualidade do serviço, aumentar a capacidade do processo e incorporar uma monitorização das atividades de input (Lojas) e output (Entrepostos), para futura rastreabilidade das operações, através da integração da cadeia de abastecimento, para a satisfação do cliente interno. Para a elaboração do novo modelo de processo foi seguida a orientação da reengenharia de processos de negócio, nas suas linhas orientadoras: identificação do modelo de processo atual e das suas necessidades; definição dos objetivos norteadores do projeto a apresentar; redesenhar novo modelo de processo de negócio, de modo a dar resposta às necessidades detetadas nos clientes internos.
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INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.
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The virtuous cycle between development success and foreign policy in Cape Verde reflects a positive interaction between globalization and governance. Development success under globalization entails positive market perceptions regarding the orientation and predictability of policies as well as the accompanying institutional arrangements, thereby making foreign policy salient beyond the comparator group, or “aspirational”. Even if there is no universally applicable development model, an aspirational foreign policy can be built on positive rankings with respect to comparator groups. In Macedo and Pereira (2010), macrolevel policy and institutional combinations underpinning trade diversification and income convergence in West and Southern Africa are used to establish development success for Cape Verde and Mozambique respectively. Here, the narrative of long-term development helps identify the following drivers: moving towards a market economy; opening up to regional and global trade; increasing economic and political freedom; pursuing macroeconomic stability and financial reputation; ensuring policy continuity (especially in trade and industrial sectors) and focusing on human development (especially poverty reduction and education). Looking at GDP per capita and indicators of financial reputation and good governance of sub-regional peers is not sufficient to conclude that Cape Verde’s convergence will be sustained. Nevertheless, the positive interaction between trade and financial globalization, on the one hand, and democracy and good governance, on the other, have positive implications for the effectiveness of foreign policy across the region as well as in the Portuguese-speaking community.
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The Corporate world is becoming more and more competitive. This leads organisations to adapt to this reality, by adopting more efficient processes, which result in a decrease in cost as well as an increase of product quality. One of these processes consists in making proposals to clients, which necessarily include a cost estimation of the project. This estimation is the main focus of this project. In particular, one of the goals is to evaluate which estimation models fit the Altran Portugal software factory the most, the organization where the fieldwork of this thesis will be carried out. There is no broad agreement about which is the type of estimation model more suitable to be used in software projects. Concerning contexts where there is plenty of objective information available to be used as input to an estimation model, model-based methods usually yield better results than the expert judgment. However, what happens more frequently is not having this volume and quality of information, which has a negative impact in the model-based methods performance, favouring the usage of expert judgement. In practice, most organisations use expert judgment, making themselves dependent on the expert. A common problem found is that the performance of the expert’s estimation depends on his previous experience with identical projects. This means that when new types of projects arrive, the estimation will have an unpredictable accuracy. Moreover, different experts will make different estimates, based on their individual experience. As a result, the company will not directly attain a continuous growing knowledge about how the estimate should be carried. Estimation models depend on the input information collected from previous projects, the size of the project database and the resources available. Altran currently does not store the input information from previous projects in a systematic way. It has a small project database and a team of experts. Our work is targeted to companies that operate in similar contexts. We start by gathering information from the organisation in order to identify which estimation approaches can be applied considering the organization’s context. A gap analysis is used to understand what type of information the company would have to collect so that other approaches would become available. Based on our assessment, in our opinion, expert judgment is the most adequate approach for Altran Portugal, in the current context. We analysed past development and evolution projects from Altran Portugal and assessed their estimates. This resulted in the identification of common estimation deviations, errors, and patterns, which lead to the proposal of metrics to help estimators produce estimates leveraging past projects quantitative and qualitative information in a convenient way. This dissertation aims to contribute to more realistic estimates, by identifying shortcomings in the current estimation process and supporting the self-improvement of the process, by gathering as much relevant information as possible from each finished project.