Climate change performance measurement, control and accountability in English local areas

Purpose – This paper aims to consider how climate change performance is measured and accounted for within the performance framework for local authority areas in England adopted in 2008. It critically evaluates the design of two mitigation and one adaptation indicators that are most relevant to climate change. Further, the potential for these performance indicators to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation is discussed. Design/methodology/approach – The authors begin by examining the importance of the performance framework and the related Local Area Agreements (LAAs), which were negotiated for all local areas in England between central government and Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs). This development is located within the broader literature relating to new public management. The potential for this framework to assist in delivering the UK's climate change policy objectives is researched in a two-stage process. First, government publications and all 150 LAAs were analysed to identify the level of priority given to the climate change indicators. Second, interviews were conducted in spring 2009 with civil servants and local authority officials from the English West Midlands who were engaged in negotiating the climate change content of the LAAs. Findings – Nationally, the authors find that 97 per cent of LAAs included at least one climate change indicator as a priority. The indicators themselves, however, are perceived to be problematic – in terms of appropriateness, accuracy and timeliness. In addition, concerns were identified about the level of local control over the drivers of climate change performance and, therefore, a question is raised as to how LSPs can be held accountable for this. On a more positive note, for those concerned about climate change, the authors do find evidence that the inclusion of these indicators within the performance framework has helped to move climate change up the agenda for local authorities and their partners. However, actions by the UK's new coalition government to abolish the national performance framework and substantially reduce public expenditure potentially threaten this advance. Originality/value – This paper offers an insight into a new development for measuring climate change performance at a local level, which is relatively under-researched. It also contributes to knowledge of accountability within a local government setting and provides a reference point for further research into the potential role of local actions to address the issue of climate change.

Did they ‘Read before burning’? The Coalition and quangos

Attitudes to quangos are paradoxical. On the one hand they are perceived to be undemocratic, unaccountable organisations, while on the other they are seen to improve effectiveness, limit political interference and increase public confidence in government. This paradox is reflected in the behaviour of political parties, which generally adopt a harsh line towards quangos in opposition, but come to rely on these bodies in office. Ahead of the 2010 general election it was, however, noticeable that the Conservative party rejected this dynamic by promising to pursue ‘a more sophisticated approach’. This article explores the Coalition government's subsequent ‘public bodies reform programme’, assessing its progress against recommendations contained within the Institute for Government's Read before Burning report of July 2010. It concludes that while the Coalition has addressed long-standing concerns about the day-to-day governance of public bodies, it has failed to resolve a set of broader and strategic (metagovernance) issues.

Public R&D policies and private R&D investment:a survey of the empirical evidence

The importance of R&D investment in explaining economic growth is well documented in the literature. Policies by modern governments increasingly recognise the benefits of supporting R&D investment. Government funding has, however, become an increasingly scarce resource in times of financial crisis and economic austerity. Hence, it is important that available funds are used and targeted effectively. This paper offers the first systematic review and critical discussion of what the R&D literature has to say currently about the effectiveness of major public R&D policies in increasing private R&D investment. Public policies are considered within three categories, R&D tax credits and direct subsidies, support of the university research system and the formation of high-skilled human capital, and support of formal R&D cooperations across a variety of institutions. Crucially, the large body of more recent literature observes a shift away from the earlier findings that public subsidies often crowd-out private R&D to finding that subsidies typically stimulate private R&D. Tax credits are also much more unanimously than previously found to have positive effects. University research, high-skilled human capital, and R&D cooperation also typically increase private R&D. Recent work indicates that accounting for non-linearities is one area of research that may refine existing results. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling stock volatilities during financial crises:a time varying coefficient approach

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two decades in the volatility dynamics, including the underlying volatility persistence and volatility spillover structure. Using daily data from several key stock market indices, the results of our bivariate GARCH models show the existence of time varying correlations as well as time varying shock and volatility spillovers between the returns of FTSE and DAX, and those of NIKKEI and Hang Seng, which became more prominent during the recent financial crisis. Our theoretical considerations on the time varying model which provides the platform upon which we integrate our multifaceted empirical approaches are also of independent interest. In particular, we provide the general solution for time varying asymmetric GARCH specifications, which is a long standing research topic. This enables us to characterize these models by deriving, first, their multistep ahead predictors, second, the first two time varying unconditional moments, and third, their covariance structure.

Institutions matter: essays on the determinants and consequences of socio-political institutions

ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This thesis seeks to contribute to the socio-political literature. It comprises of three individual chapters examining the determinants and consequences of different social-political institutional factors. Specifically, the first study combines game theoretical and empirical techniques to examine how bureaucrats favour other agents within their social group and the effects this will have on the level of corruption in the economy. To this end, I develop a simple model of allocation of time between economic activities and leisure (time spent building social network ties), to illustrate the underlying causal mechanism between social network and corruption. It shows that large social networks and low levels of economic activities provides the condition for high levels of corruption. However, the ability of the government to punish corruption through well-established laws and property rights enforcement acts as a deterrent to corruption. he second work also combines game theoretical and empirical techniques. It aims to clarify the relationship between the degree of competition and political influence of firms, paying particular attention to the level of government regulations that exist in the countries in which the firms operates. The interplay between economic and political institutions is vital to any analysis on understanding the workings of political influence. The third study is purely empirical. It examines the role of two types of business network, namely, political connections and business group affiliations on a firm’s performance. Evidence was provided on Chinese firms’ performance during the 2008 financial crisis.

Market reform and state paternalism in Hungary: a path-dependent approach

Hungary is one of the worst-hit countries of the current financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe. The deteriorating economic performance of the country is, however, not a recent phenomenon. A relatively high ratio of redistribution, a high and persistent public deficit and accelerated indebtedness characterised the country not just in the last couple of years but also well before the transformation, which also continued in the postsocialist years. The gradualist success of the country – which dates back to at least 1968 – in the field of liberalisation, marketisation and privatisation was accompanied by a constant overspending in the general government. The paper attempts to explore the reasons behind policymakers’ impotence to reform public finances. By providing a path-dependent explanation, it argues that both communist and postcommunist governments used the general budget as a buffer to compensate losers of economic reforms, especially microeconomic restructuring. The ever-widening circle of net benefiters of welfare provisions paid from the general budget, however, has made it simply unrealistic to implement sizeable fiscal adjustment, putting the country onto a deteriorating path of economic development.

Market reform and fiscal laxity in Communist and post-Communist Hungary: A path-dependent approach

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a conceptual framework in order to analyse and understand the twin developments of successful microeconomic reform on the one hand and failed macroeconomic stabilisation attempts on the other hand in Hungary. The case study also attempts to explore the reasons why Hungarian policymakers were willing to initiate reforms in the micro sphere, but were reluctant to initiate major changes in public finances both before and after the regime change of 1989/1990. Design/methodology/approach – The paper applies a path-dependent approach by carefully analysing Hungary's Communist and post-Communist economic development. The study restricts itself to a positive analysis but normative statements can also be drawn accordingly. Findings – The study demonstrates that the recent deteriorating economic performance of Hungary is not a recent phenomenon. By providing a path-dependent explanation, it argues that both Communist and post-Communist governments used the general budget as a buffer to compensate the losers of economic reforms, especially microeconomic restructuring. The gradualist success of the country – which dates back to at least 1968 – in the field of liberalisation, marketisation and privatisation was accompanied by a constant overspending in the general government. Practical implications – Hungary has been one of the worst-hit countries of the 2008/2009 financial crisis, not just in Central and Eastern Europe but in the whole world. The capacity and opportunity for strengthening international investors' confidence is, however, not without doubts. The current deterioration is deeply rooted in failed past macroeconomic management. The dissolution of fiscal laxity and state paternalism in a broader context requires, therefore, an all-encompassing reform of the general government, which may trigger serious challenges to the political regime as well. Originality/value – The study aims to show that a relatively high ratio of redistribution, a high and persistent public deficit and an accelerated indebtedness are not recent phenomena in Hungary. In fact, these trends characterised the country well before the transformation of 1989/1990, and have continued in the post-socialist years, too. To explain such a phenomenon, the study argues that in the last couple of decades the hardening of the budget constraint of firms have come at the cost of maintaining the soft budget constraint of the state.

Aranyszabály helyett adósságfék - a német példa = Debt-brake instead of the golden rule - the case of Germany

Az Európai Unió megújuló gazdasági kormányzási rendszerének egyik meghatározó pillére a diszkrecionális gazdaságpolitikával szemben megfogalmazott szabályalapúság lesz. A minden korábbinál erősebb és vélhetően hatékonyabb szabályok bevezetésének legelkötelezettebb híve Németország. Az elmúlt évtizedekben a folyó költségvetési kiadások hiányból történő finanszírozásának tilalmát előíró aranyszabályt inkább kevesebb, mint több sikerrel alkalmazó Németország most arra vállalkozott, hogy nem csak saját hatáskörben vezeti be az ún. adósságféket, hanem követendő példaként állítja azt a többi tagország elé is. Írásunkban az aranyszabály, illetve az adósságfék előnyeit és hátrányait vesszük számba a német tapasztalatok felhasználásával. / === / The need to strengthen rules-based fiscal policy has emerged as a widely shared consensus amongst policy-makers in the recent economic and financial crisis. Germany has become the most devoted advocator of the new regime, where more innovative and effective fiscal rules are supposed to play an even bigger role than before. Germany supports such a move however not only in rhetoric but also in practice. It decided to abandon its several decade old golden rule and to adopt a more sophisticated one, the so-called debt-brake. This article provides a cost-benefit analysis of both the previous and the new fiscal rule.

Válság és hitelderivatívák. A szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) árazása és kockázataik (Crisis and loan derivatives. The pricing and risks of synthetic collateralized debt obligations)

A dolgozat első részében röviden áttekintjük a 2007-ben kezdődött pénzügyi válság lefolyását és a válsághoz vezető okokat. A bemutatás során igyekszünk végig a mögöttes folyamatokra és azok mozgatórugóira koncentrálni, ezzel megragadva a válság egyfajta "elméletét". A bemutatásból láthatóvá válik a hitelderivatívák kiemelt szerepe a válság során. A dolgozat második részében az egyik legnépszerűbb hitelderivatív termék, a szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) matematikai modellezését és annak problémáit mutatjuk be. Sokak szerint ezek a matematikai modellek okozták - vagy legalábbis felerősítették - a válságot. Az elemzés során megmutatjuk, hogy nemcsak a modellezési eszközök nem voltak megfelelők, hanem az árazás elve sem állta meg a helyét a kockázatsemleges árazási keretben. Ez az eredmény élesen rámutat a mögöttes elméletek válságára. / === / The first part of the paper examines briefly the financial crisis of 2007 and its causes, focusing on its driving processes and key motifs. This shows clearly the importance and centrality of credit derivatives in the crisis. The second part presents a mathematical modelling of one of the most popular credit derivative products: synthetic collateralized debt obligations, along with the drawbacks and problems of the modelling process. It is widely claimed that these products caused or at least precipitated the crises. The authors show not only that the modelling tools were inappropriate, but that the principle for pricing did not match adequately the risk-neutral valuation framework.

Törlesztés válság idején a diákhitel törlesztésében bekövetkezett változások vizsgálata (Changes in Hungarian student loan repayments due to the crisis)

A 2008–2009-es pénzügyi válság hatására a magyarországi felsőoktatási hallgatók tanulmányait hitelekkel segítő Diákhitel Központ visszafizetési könnyítés lehetőségét ajánlotta fel a már törlesztési szakaszban lévő ügyfelei számára. Tanulmányunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy kik és hányan éltek a törlesztési mérséklés lehetőségével, és az emiatt elmaradó bevételek mennyire befolyásolhatják a Diákhitel Központ rövid és hosszú távú működését. Az derült ki, hogy az előírt törlesztéseikkel elmaradók nagyobb arányban kérték a mérséklést, mint a teljes törlesztői populáció. A törlesztési viselkedések változásának elemzése a válság hatásának érezhető visszahúzódását mutatja a 2010-es évben. Figyelmet érdemel az a tény, hogy a felsőfokú végzettséget szerző adósok törlesztési fegyelme nem elég erős. / === / After the world wide financial crisis in 2008/2009, the Student Loan Center in Hungary offered the following opportunity to its customers who were in the repayment period: they can pay a reduced amount of the installments for at most two years. In the present paper we study the group of customers who chose the opportunity of reduced installments. The effect of the delayed repayments on the short-term and long-term operations of the Center is also investigated. It turned out that the customers who already got into arrears asked for the reduction in a larger proportion than the whole population. The study of the customers in the repayment period shows that the impact of the financial crisis has decreased significantly. The disciplined repayment of the customers after graduation is not strong enough.

Kérdőjelek a közgazdaságtanban és oktatásában = Challenges in economic research and education

Ez az esszé a teljesség igénye nélkül kísérli meg áttekinteni azt, hogy mire vezetett a közgazdaságtan világméretekben megindult és a 2008-2009. évi válság lezáratlansága miatt vélhetően évtizedes szinten zajló önvizsgálata. A tudományszak egészét egyszerre jellemzi egyfajta tartalmi kiüresedés és a társtudományokkal való erőteljesebb kapcsolatkeresés, a módszertanok és az iskolák egymás mellett élése - ami egyáltalán nem békés -, valamint a gyakorlat által felvetett kérdések elméleti általánosításának igénye. A magyar közgazdaságtan hagyományos követő szerepe megmaradt, viszont a képzésben szerzett negyedszázados tapasztalatok és az új globális kihívások lényegi átalakításokat indokolnának a mai, túlságosan egységesített képzésben. _____ This essay joins the soul-searching that has developed globally among economists since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, whose still open-ended outcomes make it likely that such self-critical reassessments will continue in the years to come. Economics is marked by the parallel existence of substantive hollowing and in-creased reliance on interfaces with neighbouring disciplines. So the plurality and none-too-peaceful coexistence of schools and methodologies is likely to persist. Similarly abundant are the attempts to theorize and generalize new phenomena in policy and business practices. Hungarian economics continues to be a follower - a trend-taker rather than trend-setter - as it was in the inter-war period. Experience has been accumulating for over 25 years in introducing Western-style higher education in economics. The increase of student numbers and steep decrease in public funding thereof call for major restructuring in curricula, institutions and teaching methods and styles alike.

Előszó egy pénzügyi matematika tankönyvhöz = Preface to a textbook on financial mathematics

A szerző a pénzügyi válság kapcsán a pénzügyi matematikát ért kritikai észrevételekre próbál válaszolni. Megítélése szerint a pénzügyi matematika negatív hatása a magyarországi pénzügyi problémák esetében nem mutatható ki, ugyanis Magyarországon a pénzügyi döntések mindenfajta kvantitatív megalapozás nélkül, nagyrészt politikai alapon történtek, így a felelősséget is a politikát körülvevő gazdaságpolitikusoknak kell viselniük. A matematikai modellek legfőbb felhasználási területe nem a konkrét pénzügyi döntések megalapozásában, hanem sokkal inkább az oktatásban található. _____ The author discusses some critical observations about financial mathematics in connection with the financial crisis. In his view no negative effect of financial mathematics on Hungary's financial problems can be observed, since the financial decisions in Hungary were made without any kind of serious quantitative basis. The decisions were made mainly on political ground, so that the blame must go to economic politicians involved in that policy. The main area of application of mathematical models is not its application in specific financial decisions, but far more in the field of education.

Systemic country differences in the European innovation performance - Does institutional context matter?

The so-called "High Performance Working System" (HPWS) and the lean production are representing the theoretical and methodological foundations of this paper. In this relation it is worth making distinction between various theoretical streams of the HPWS. The first theoretical stream in the literature is focusing on the diffusion of the Japanese-style management and organizational practices both in the US and in the Europe. The second theoretical strand comprises the approach of sociology of work and dealing with the learning/innovation capabilities of the new forms of work organization. Finally, the third theoretical approach is addressing on the types of knowledge and learning process and their relations with the innovation capabilities of the firm. The authors’ analysis is based on the international comparison, both in regional and in cross country comparison. For regional comparison the share of ICT clusters in Europe, USA and the rest of the world was assessed. For the purpose of the cross-country comparison in the EU, the innovation performance measured by the index Innovation Union Scoreboard (IUS) was used in both the before and after the financial crisis.

The Re-Emergence of Suriname’s Désiré (Desi) Bouterse: Political Acumen and Geopolitical Anxiety

This study examines some concerns that derive from Suriname‘s May-July 2010 elections, which resulted in the re-emergence of erstwhile military ruler and convicted drug trafficker, Désiré (Desi) Bouterse, as President of the Republic. The victory reflects Bouterse‘s political acumen in aggregating disparate political interests and in establishing a viable coalition government. But because of his history and profile, this triumph has generated anxiety in some places internationally. In this respect, the study examines anxieties related to three matters: (a) relations with Guyana, where there is an existing territorial dispute and a recently resolved maritime dispute, (b) illegal drug trafficking operations, and (c) foreign policy engagement with Venezuela. There has been a flurry of bilateral activities—including several presidential summits—with Guyana since President Bouterse‘s inauguration, albeit seemingly more about symbolism than substance. Although the maritime dispute was settled by a Tribunal of the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea in 2007, the 15,000 km2 New River Triangle is still unresolved. Indeed, in June 2011 President Bouterse reasserted Suriname‘s claim to the Triangle. Suriname has upped the ante in that dispute by portraying internationally the map of Suriname as inclusive of the disputed area. In all likelihood that self-redefinition slowly will become the country‘s cartographic definition in the eyes of the world if Guyana does not successfully rebuff that move or pursue the definitive settlement of the dispute. A geonarcotics assessment shows Suriname to be still heavily implicated in trafficking, because of geography, law enforcement limitations, corruption, and other factors. But despite Bouterse‘s drug-related history and that of former senior military officers, several reasons suggest the inexpediency of a narco-state being created by Bouterse. As well, as part of Suriname‘s pursuit of increased Caribbean and South American engagement, it has boosted relations with Venezuela, which has included it in PetroCaribe and provided housing and agricultural aid. However, the engagement appears to be driven more by pragmatism and less by any ideological affinity with Hugo Chavez.

The Argentine Dilemma: “Vulture Funds” and the Risks Posed to Developing Economies

Post-crisis Argentina is a case study of crisis management through debt restructuring. This article examines how Argentina negotiated the external debt in the wake of the sovereign default in December 2001 and now confronts challenges posed by holdout creditors—the so called “vulture funds”. It argues that debt restructuring has put a straitjacket on the national economy, making it virtually impossible for healthy growth short of a break with the international economic order. While Argentina has successfully restructured a $95 billion debt with an unprecedented “hair cut” (around 70% reduction in “net value of debt”), a sustainable growth appears out of reach as long as reliance on the government debt market prevails. In this cycle, the transmission belt of financial crisis to developing countries is characterized by the entry of highly speculative players such as hedge funds, conflicts of interests embedded in “sovereign debt restructuring” (SDR) and vulnerabilities associated with “emerging market debt”.