Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

El Niño 2015/2016: impact analysis of past El Niños

This is a DfID (Department for International Development) commissioned report on the impact of historical El Niño events on low- and middle-income countries across Africa and elsewhere. The report identifies El Niño events in the past 35 years and highlights regions and countries vulnerable to their impacts. The impacts on rainfall and temperature are broken down by season and country as the El Niño develops, peaks and decays and are represented in at-a-glance Impact Tables. The Impact Tables also include an extensive review of literature (e.g., peer-reviewed, grey literature and media reports) to identify potential socio-economic impacts in vulnerable sectors such as water, infrastructure, energy and health. The risk of such impacts are graded as high, medium or potential depending on the meteorological signal and the robustness of evidence available.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook November 2015

During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed monthly outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of a monthly outlook column. This monthly outlook is an indication of the average likely conditions for that month and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook December 2015

During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g. droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g. health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015 and SON 2015, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Dec 2015 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of JF 2016 and MAM 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook January 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and Dec 2015, a detailed monthly outlook from 4 modeling centres for Jan 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of Feb 2016, MAM 2016 and Jun 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook February 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJ 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Feb 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of MAM 2016 and JJ 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook March 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJF 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Mar 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of AM 2016 and JJA 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Summertime moisture transport over Southeastern South America and extratropical cyclones behavior during inter-El Nio events

The impact of the inter-El Nio (EN) variability on the moisture availability over Southeastern South America (SESA) is investigated. Also, an automatic tracking scheme was used to analyze the extratropical cyclones properties (system density - SD and central pressure - CP) in this region. During the austral summer period from 1977-2000, the differences for the upper-level wave train anomaly composites seem to determine the rainfall composite differences. In fact, the positive rainfall anomalies over most of the SESA domain during the strong EN events are explained by an upper-level cyclonic center over the tropics and an anticyclonic center over the eastern subtropical area. This pattern seems to contribute to upward vertical motion at 500 hPa and reinforcement of the meridional moisture transport from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and western Amazon basin to the SESA region. These features may contribute to the positive SD and negative CP anomalies explaining part of the positive rainfall anomalies found there. On the other hand, negative rainfall anomalies are located in the northern part of SESA for the weak EN years when compared to those for the strong events. Also, positive anomalies are found in the southern part, albeit less intense. It was associated with the weakening of the meridional moisture transport from the tropics to the SESA that seems have to contributed with smaller SD and CP anomalies over the most part of subtropics, when compared to the strong EN years.

Reduction kinetics of NiO-YSZ composite for application in solid oxide fuel cell

A porous nickel-8 mol% yttria stabilized zirconia (Ni-8YSZ) composite, used as anode for solid oxide fuel cell, was obtained by reduction of NiO-8YSZ cermet. The first goal was the evaluation of the temperature effect of powder processing by thermogravimetry. In addition, the influence of porosity in the reduction kinetic of the sample sintered at 1450 A degrees C was evaluated. The final porosity produced in NiO-8YSZ composite by pore former was 30.4 and 37.9 vol.%, respectively, for 10 and 15 mass% of corn starch. The sample with 15 mass% of corn starch promotes a reduction rate almost twice higher than sample with 10 mass% of corn starch. The porosity introduced by the reduction of NiO was 23 vol.%.

Synthesis of NiO-MgO-ZrO(2) catalysts and their performance in reforming of model biogas

Catalysts containing NiO/MgO/ZrO(2) mixtures were synthesized by the polymerization method in a single step. They were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), temperature programmed reduction (TPR) and physisorption of N(2) (BET) and then tested in the reforming of a model biogas (1.5CH4:1CO(2)) in the presence of air (1.5CH(4) + 1CO(2) + 0.25O(2)) at 750 degrees C for 6h. It was observed that the catalyst Ni20MZ performed better in catalytic processes than the well known catalysts, Ni/ZrO(2) and Ni/MgO, synthesized under the same conditions. The formation of solid solutions, MgO-ZrO(2) and NiO-MgO, increased the rate of conversion of reactants (CH(4) and CO(2)) into synthesis gas (H(2) + CO). The formation of oxygen vacancies (in samples containing ZrO(2) and MgO) seems to promote removal of the coke deposited on the nickel surface. The values of the H(2)/CO ratio were generally found to be slightly lower than stoichiometric, owing to the reverse water gas shift reaction occurring in parallel. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CO preferential oxidation (CO-PROx) on La(1-x)Ce(x)NiO(3) perovskites

La(1-x)Ce(x)NiO(3) perovskites have been prepared, characterized by XRD. TPR and surface area and tested as catalysts for CO-PROx, with a feed of 2.5% CO, 5% O(2), 33% H(2) and N(2) to 100%. The samples exhibited an XRD pattern typical of the perovskite, with traces of NiO in the LaNiO(3) and La(0.95)Ce(0.05)NiO(3) samples, with some La(2)NiO(4) in the La(0.90)Ce(0.10)NiO(3) sample. All samples were active, but the perovskites with cerium showed good catalytic activity, demonstrating the promoter effect of cerium. The highest conversion of CO and H(2) was obtained with La(0.95)Ce(0.05)NiO(3), probably due to a synergy between Ni and Ce that enhanced O(2) mobility. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efeitos associados a El Niño e La Niña na vegetação do estado do Rio Grande do Sul

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os efeitos associados a El Niño e La Niña sobre o crescimento e desenvolvimento da cobertura vegetal e sua evolução temporal no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, utilizando imagens do satélite NOAA. Foram utilizados dados mensais de precipitação pluvial e imagens de Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada (NDVI), no período de julho de 1981 a junho de 2000, sendo as análises feitas para todo o Estado e para as diversas Zonas de Cobertura e Uso do Solo. Os dados, classificados como El Niño, La Niña e neutro, foram utilizados para confeccionar imagens médias, imagens de anomalias e para traçar gráficos de evolução temporal de NDVI. Por fim, foi feita a análise da relação entre precipitação pluvial e NDVI. Os resultados mostraram que as diversas Zonas de Cobertura e Uso do Solo apresentam padrões diferenciados de variação na cobertura vegetal ao longo do ano, o qual é determinado pela disponibilidade hídrica, de radiação solar e de temperatura, sendo possível quantificar as alterações do padrão, através do monitoramento com imagens de NDVI/NOAA. Parte da variabilidade interanual do padrão de evolução do NDVI está associada à ocorrência do fenômeno El Niño e La Niña, como conseqüência, principalmente, do efeito deste fenômeno sobre a precipitação pluvial do Estado. Em anos de El Niño há um aumento na precipitação pluvial e conseqüentemente anomalias positivas de NDVI, enquanto que em anos de La Niña ocorre diminuição da precipitação pluvial a qual proporciona predominância de anomalias negativas de NDVI. Existe um tempo de resposta da vegetação às condições hídricas, ocasionado por uma defasagem entre o aumento ou diminuição da precipitação pluvial e o conseqüente aumento ou decréscimo de NDVI. O padrão e a intensidade dos efeitos no NDVI associados ao fenômeno El Niño e La Niña, estão relacionados às condições edafoclimáticas e de uso e cobertura do solo. As relações entre NDVI e precipitação pluvial evidenciam que este é um dos principais elementos que influi nas condições de crescimento vegetal para o Estado do Rio Grande do Sul.

Síntese e caracterização de NiO-CGO para anodo e eletrólitos sólidos e base de Céria para SOFC

The direct use of natural gas makes the Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) potentially more competitive with the current energy conversions technologies. The Intermediate Temperature SOFC (IT-SOFC) offer several advantages over the High Temperature SOFC (HT-SOFC), which includes better thermal compatibility among components, fast start with lower energy consumption, manufacture and operation cost reduction. The CeO2 based materials are alternatives to the Yttria Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) to application in SOFC, as they have higher ionic conductivity and less ohmic losses comparing to YSZ, and they can operate at lower temperatures (500-800°C). Ceria has been doped with a variety of cations, although, the Gd3+ has the ionic radius closest to the ideal one to form solid solution. These electrolytes based in ceria require special electrodes with a higher performance and chemical and termomechanical compatibility. In this work compounds of gadolinia-doped ceria, Ce1-xGdxO2-δ (x = 0,1; 0,2 and 0,3), used as electrolytes, were synthesized by polymeric precursors method, Pechini, as well as the composite material NiO - Ce0,9Gd0,1O1,95, used as anode, also attained by oxide mixture method, mixturing the powders of the both phases calcinated already. The materials were characterized by X ray diffraction, dilatometry and scanning electronic microscopy. The refinement of the diffraction data indicated that all the Ce1-xGdxO2-δ powders were crystallized in a unique cubic phase with fluorite structure, and the composite synthesized by Pechini method produced smaller crystallite size in comparison with the same material attained by oxide mixture method. All the produced powders had nanometric characteristics. The composite produced by Pechini method has microstructural characteristics that can increase the triple phase boundaries (TPB) in the anode, improving the cell efficiency, as well as reducing the mass transport mechanism effect that provokes anode degradation

Influência do método de síntese e caracterização de pós compósitos de NiO- Ce1-xEuxO2-δ para anodos catalíticos de células a combustível

Fuel cells are electrochemical devices that convert chemical energy into electricity. Due to the development of new materials, fuel cells are emerging as generating clean energy generator. Among the types of fuel cells, categorized according to the electrode type, the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) stand out due to be the only device entirely made of solid particles. Beyond that, their operation temperature is relatively high (between 500 and 1000 °C), allowing them to operate with high efficiency. Another aspect that promotes the use of SOFC over other cells is their ability to operate with different fuels. The CeO2 based materials doped with rare earth (TR+3) may be used as alternatives to traditional NiO-YSZ anodes as they have higher ionic conductivity and smaller ohmic losses compared to YSZ, and can operate at lower temperatures (500-800°C). In the composition of the anode, the concentration of NiO, acting as a catalyst in YSZ provides high electrical conductivity and high electrochemical activity of reactions, providing internal reform in the cell. In this work compounds of NiO - Ce1-xEuxO2-δ (x = 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3) were synthesized from polymeric precursor, Pechini, method of combustion and also by microwave-assisted hydrothermal method. The materials were characterized by the techniques of TG, TPR, XRD and FEG-SEM. The refinement of data obtained by X-ray diffraction showed that all powders of NiO - Cex-1EuxO2-δ crystallized in a cubic phase with fluorite structure, and also the presence of Ni. Through the characterizations can be proved that all routes of preparation used were effective for producing ceramics with characteristics suitable for application as SOFC anodes, but the microwave-assisted hydrothermal method showed a significant reduction in the average grain size and improved control of the compositions of the phases

Electrical properties of YSZ/NiO composites prepared by a liquid mixture technique

We report the preparation and characterization of yttria-stabilized zirconia/nickel oxide composites (YSZ/NiO). This composite is the precursor material of the cermet YSZ/Ni, which is used as solid oxide fuel cell anode material. The performance of the anode is strongly dependent on the microstructural properties of the cermet. Therefore, the control of the microstructure of the YSZ/NiO composite is a key step for the fabrication of high-performance anodes. In this study, the composites were prepared by a modified liquid mixture technique. Scanning electron microscopy analysis evidenced the good dispersion of the phases and that NiO nanoparticles are spread over the YSZ surface. Sintered pellets were studied by X-ray diffraction and impedance spectroscopy. The main results show that the composite is comprised of a well-dispersed mixture of the two phases. The electrical conductivity data show that there is a strong dependence of the transport mechanism on the relative composition of phases. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.