Determinação de cenários futuros de uso e cobertura do solo e sua influência na vulnerabilidade ambiental : o caso do município de Formosa – GO

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Tecnologia Ambiental e Recursos Hídricos, 2015.

Cogestion des ressources naturelles : une approche structurale pour quantifier la contribution des réseaux d'acteurs à la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques

Alors que les activités anthropiques font basculer de nombreux écosystèmes vers des régimes fonctionnels différents, la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques devient un problème pressant. Des acteurs locaux, impliqués dans une grande diversité de groupes — allant d’initiatives locales et indépendantes à de grandes institutions formelles — peuvent agir sur ces questions en collaborant au développement, à la promotion ou à l’implantation de pratiques plus en accord avec ce que l’environnement peut fournir. De ces collaborations répétées émergent des réseaux complexes, et il a été montré que la topologie de ces réseaux peut améliorer la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques (SSÉ) auxquels ils participent. La topologie des réseaux d’acteurs favorisant la résilience de leur SSÉ est caractérisée par une combinaison de plusieurs facteurs : la structure doit être modulaire afin d’aider les différents groupes à développer et proposer des solutions à la fois plus innovantes (en réduisant l’homogénéisation du réseau), et plus proches de leurs intérêts propres ; elle doit être bien connectée et facilement synchronisable afin de faciliter les consensus, d’augmenter le capital social, ainsi que la capacité d’apprentissage ; enfin, elle doit être robuste, afin d’éviter que les deux premières caractéristiques ne souffrent du retrait volontaire ou de la mise à l’écart de certains acteurs. Ces caractéristiques, qui sont relativement intuitives à la fois conceptuellement et dans leur application mathématique, sont souvent employées séparément pour analyser les qualités structurales de réseaux d’acteurs empiriques. Cependant, certaines sont, par nature, incompatibles entre elles. Par exemple, le degré de modularité d’un réseau ne peut pas augmenter au même rythme que sa connectivité, et cette dernière ne peut pas être améliorée tout en améliorant sa robustesse. Cet obstacle rend difficile la création d’une mesure globale, car le niveau auquel le réseau des acteurs contribue à améliorer la résilience du SSÉ ne peut pas être la simple addition des caractéristiques citées, mais plutôt le résultat d’un compromis subtil entre celles-ci. Le travail présenté ici a pour objectifs (1), d’explorer les compromis entre ces caractéristiques ; (2) de proposer une mesure du degré auquel un réseau empirique d’acteurs contribue à la résilience de son SSÉ ; et (3) d’analyser un réseau empirique à la lumière, entre autres, de ces qualités structurales. Cette thèse s’articule autour d’une introduction et de quatre chapitres numérotés de 2 à 5. Le chapitre 2 est une revue de la littérature sur la résilience des SSÉ. Il identifie une série de caractéristiques structurales (ainsi que les mesures de réseaux qui leur correspondent) liées à l’amélioration de la résilience dans les SSÉ. Le chapitre 3 est une étude de cas sur la péninsule d’Eyre, une région rurale d’Australie-Méridionale où l’occupation du sol, ainsi que les changements climatiques, contribuent à l’érosion de la biodiversité. Pour cette étude de cas, des travaux de terrain ont été effectués en 2010 et 2011 durant lesquels une série d’entrevues a permis de créer une liste des acteurs de la cogestion de la biodiversité sur la péninsule. Les données collectées ont été utilisées pour le développement d’un questionnaire en ligne permettant de documenter les interactions entre ces acteurs. Ces deux étapes ont permis la reconstitution d’un réseau pondéré et dirigé de 129 acteurs individuels et 1180 relations. Le chapitre 4 décrit une méthodologie pour mesurer le degré auquel un réseau d’acteurs participe à la résilience du SSÉ dans lequel il est inclus. La méthode s’articule en deux étapes : premièrement, un algorithme d’optimisation (recuit simulé) est utilisé pour fabriquer un archétype semi-aléatoire correspondant à un compromis entre des niveaux élevés de modularité, de connectivité et de robustesse. Deuxièmement, un réseau empirique (comme celui de la péninsule d’Eyre) est comparé au réseau archétypique par le biais d’une mesure de distance structurelle. Plus la distance est courte, et plus le réseau empirique est proche de sa configuration optimale. La cinquième et dernier chapitre est une amélioration de l’algorithme de recuit simulé utilisé dans le chapitre 4. Comme il est d’usage pour ce genre d’algorithmes, le recuit simulé utilisé projetait les dimensions du problème multiobjectif dans une seule dimension (sous la forme d’une moyenne pondérée). Si cette technique donne de très bons résultats ponctuellement, elle n’autorise la production que d’une seule solution parmi la multitude de compromis possibles entre les différents objectifs. Afin de mieux explorer ces compromis, nous proposons un algorithme de recuit simulé multiobjectifs qui, plutôt que d’optimiser une seule solution, optimise une surface multidimensionnelle de solutions. Cette étude, qui se concentre sur la partie sociale des systèmes socio-écologiques, améliore notre compréhension des structures actorielles qui contribuent à la résilience des SSÉ. Elle montre que si certaines caractéristiques profitables à la résilience sont incompatibles (modularité et connectivité, ou — dans une moindre mesure — connectivité et robustesse), d’autres sont plus facilement conciliables (connectivité et synchronisabilité, ou — dans une moindre mesure — modularité et robustesse). Elle fournit également une méthode intuitive pour mesurer quantitativement des réseaux d’acteurs empiriques, et ouvre ainsi la voie vers, par exemple, des comparaisons d’études de cas, ou des suivis — dans le temps — de réseaux d’acteurs. De plus, cette thèse inclut une étude de cas qui fait la lumière sur l’importance de certains groupes institutionnels pour la coordination des collaborations et des échanges de connaissances entre des acteurs aux intérêts potentiellement divergents.

Klasseneffekte oder individuelle Einflussgrößen. Was bestimmt die Teilnahme am Instrumentallernen im Grundschulalter

In den vergangenen Jahren hat die Diskussion um kulturelle Teilhabe im Rahmen der Ergebnisse großer Bildungsstudien zugenommen. Diese hatten eine hochgradige Abhängigkeit des Bildungserfolgs und des Kompetenzerwerbs vom sozialen Hintergrund der Kinder und ihrer Familien konstatiert (u.a. Ehmke & Jude 2010, S. 250). Auch für den Teilaspekt der kulturellen Teilhabe ließen sich in Studien soziale Disparitäten feststellen: Die rezeptive Nutzung kultureller Angebote durch Kinder und Jugendliche unterliegt einer deutlichen sozialen Selektivität (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung 2012, S. 165). Gleichzeitig ist mit dem Programm Jedem Kind ein Instrument eine große Initiative zur Förderung frühen Instrumentallernens in der Grundschulzeit angelaufen. Die Initiatoren verfolgen dabei explizit das Ziel, die Kluft „zwischen kulturaffinen Elternhäusern und bildungsfernen Schichten" (Kulturstiftung des Bundes, 2012) in Bezug auf kulturelle Bildung zu verringern, eine „Grundversorgung" (ebd.) sicherzustellen und im demokratischen Sinne niemanden von der Alphabetisierung in Sachen Kunst auszuschließen (Völckers, 2007). Die Teilnahme von Kindern an Instrumentalunterricht während der Grundschulzeit wird hier also als ein Aspekt aktiver kultureller Teilhabe gedeutet und wird im Folgenden einer Analyse unterzogen. (DIPF/Orig.)

Avaliação do potencial eólico da zona de Évora - Contribuição para a redução de emissões de CO2

Neste trabalho é analisado o potencial eólico da região de Évora, tendo sido considerados quatro locais: Mitra, Portel, Reguengos e Colégio Verney. Com os dados de potência obtidos, foram escolhidas duas turbinas existentes no mercado, de potências nominais diferentes, para uma análise mais objectiva do real potencial da região. Apurou-se que, com a instalação de três turbinas menores, se obtém praticamente a mesma potência, por um preço consideravelmente inferior. Foi ainda possível verificar-se que a quantidade evitada de C02 para a atmosfera, ao considerar uma turbina de 5000 W (B) ou três 1000 W (A), é semelhante, concluindo-se que, considerando a eficiência, potencial, preço e emissões de co2 evitadas, a instalação de diversas turbinas A é a melhor opção. Este trabalho reveste-se de particular interesse considerando o facto de ser do conhecimento geral que, nas regiões costeiras e montanhosas, o potencial eólico está bastante estudado, ao passo que nas regiões interiores tal não acontece. ABSTRACT: ln this work, we assess the potential wind power in Évora, and four locations have been considered: Mitra, Portel, Reguengos and Évora. Based on the local wind power potential, two kinds of turbines were selected, for a more objective analysis of the region's useful wind power. It was found that the option for three small turbines allows the extraction of the same wind power that is extracted by the bigger turbine and at a considerably lower installation cost. lt was also found that the reduction in co2 emissions to the atmosphere, when considering the cases of one 5000 W (B) turbine and three 1000 W (A) turbines, is similar, therefore was concluded that, given the efficiency, potential, price and reduction of C02 emissions, the installation of several A turbines is the best option. This work is of particular interest because in coastal and mountain areas the wind potential is quite known, while this is not the case of inland areas.

Perceived learning environments and metacognitive strategy knowledge at the upper secondary school level

There is evidence that students benefit from teachers’ explicit fostering of metacognitive strategy knowledge (MSK). However, there is insufficient understanding about the effect of implicit promotion of MSK in regular school instruction. This study investigates the relationship between perceived characteristics of learning environments (social climate, support, autonomy, self-reflection) and students’ MSK. A representative cohort of students (Nt1 = 1,272/Nt2 = 1,126) in Grades 10 and 11 at schools at the upper secondary education level (ISCED Level 3A) in Switzerland participated in this two-wave longitudinal study. Multilevel analysis showed effects on both the individual and the class level. Students who experienced higher social integration showed a higher extent of MSK at the beginning of the school year than students who experienced less social integration. Perceived autonomy was also positively related to students’ MSK on the individual level. In contrast, the results showed a negative relationship between perceived self-reflection and students’ MSK. On the class level, there was a negative relationship between self-reflection and students’ MSK. Teachers’ support did not correlate with students’ MSK on either the individual or the class level. Implications of these results for education and further studies are discussed. (DIPF/Orig.)

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PROJECTS IN NONPROFIT UNIVERSITY: A PROJECT GOVERNANCE PERSPECTIVE

The universities rely on the Information Technology (IT) projects to support and enhance their core strategic objectives of teaching, research, and administration. The researcher’s literature review found that the level of IT funding and resources in the universities is not adequate to meet the IT demands. The universities received more IT project requests than they could execute. As such, universities must selectively fund the IT projects. The objectives of the IT projects in the universities vary. An IT project which benefits the teaching functions may not benefit the administrative functions. As such, the selection of an IT project is challenging in the universities. To aid with the IT decision making, many universities in the United States of America (USA) have formed the IT Governance (ITG) processes. ITG is an IT decision making and accountability framework whose purpose is to align the IT efforts in an organization with its strategic objectives, realize the value of the IT investments, meet the expected performance criteria, and manage the risks and the resources (Weil & Ross, 2004). ITG in the universities is relatively new, and it is not well known how the ITG processes are aiding the nonprofit universities in selecting the right IT projects, and managing the performance of these IT projects. This research adds to the body of knowledge regarding the IT project selection under the governance structure, the maturity of the IT projects, and the IT project performance in the nonprofit universities. The case study research methodology was chosen for this exploratory research. The convenience sampling was done to choose the cases from two large, research universities with decentralized colleges, and two small, centralized universities. The data were collected on nine IT projects from these four universities using the interviews and the university documents. The multi-case analysis was complemented by the Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to systematically analyze how the IT conditions lead to an outcome. This research found that the IT projects were selected in the centralized universities in a more informed manner. ITG was more authoritative in the small centralized universities; the ITG committees were formed by including the key decision makers, the decision-making roles, and responsibilities were better defined, and the frequency of ITG communication was higher. In the centralized universities, the business units and colleges brought the IT requests to ITG committees; which in turn prioritized the IT requests and allocated the funds and the resources to the IT projects. ITG committee members in the centralized universities had a higher awareness of the university-wide IT needs, and the IT projects tended to align with the strategic objectives. On the other hand, the decentralized colleges and business units in the large universities were influential and often bypassed the ITG processes. The decentralized units often chose the “pet” IT projects, and executed them within a silo, without bringing them to the attention of the ITG committees. While these IT projects met the departmental objectives, they did not always align with the university’s strategic objectives. This research found that the IT project maturity in the university could be increased by following the project management methodologies. The IT project management maturity was found higher in the IT projects executed by the centralized university, where a full-time project manager was assigned to manage the project, and the project manager had a higher expertise in the project management. The IT project executed under the guidance of the Project Management Office (PMO) has exhibited a higher project management maturity, as the PMO set the standards and controls for the project. The IT projects managed by the decentralized colleges by a part-time project manager with lower project management expertise have exhibited a lower project management maturity. The IT projects in the decentralized colleges were often managed by the business, or technical leads, who often lacked the project management expertise. This research found that higher the IT project management maturity, the better is the project performance. The IT projects with a higher maturity had a lower project delay, lower number of missed requirements, and lower number of IT system errors. This research found that the quality of IT decision in the university could be improved by centralizing the IT decision-making processes. The IT project management maturity could be improved by following the project management methodologies. The stakeholder management and communication were found critical for the success of the IT projects in the university. It is hoped that the findings from this research would help the university leaders make the strategic IT decisions, and the university’s IT project managers make the IT project decisions.

Energy Management of a Battery-Ultracapacitor Hybrid Energy Storage System in Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicle (EV) batteries tend to have accelerated degradation due to high peak power and harsh charging/discharging cycles during acceleration and deceleration periods, particularly in urban driving conditions. An oversized energy storage system (ESS) can meet the high power demands; however, it suffers from increased size, volume and cost. In order to reduce the overall ESS size and extend battery cycle life, a battery-ultracapacitor (UC) hybrid energy storage system (HESS) has been considered as an alternative solution. In this work, we investigate the optimized configuration, design, and energy management of a battery-UC HESS. One of the major challenges in a HESS is to design an energy management controller for real-time implementation that can yield good power split performance. We present the methodologies and solutions to this problem in a battery-UC HESS with a DC-DC converter interfacing with the UC and the battery. In particular, a multi-objective optimization problem is formulated to optimize the power split in order to prolong the battery lifetime and to reduce the HESS power losses. This optimization problem is numerically solved for standard drive cycle datasets using Dynamic Programming (DP). Trained using the DP optimal results, an effective real-time implementation of the optimal power split is realized based on Neural Network (NN). This proposed online energy management controller is applied to a midsize EV model with a 360V/34kWh battery pack and a 270V/203Wh UC pack. The proposed online energy management controller effectively splits the load demand with high power efficiency and also effectively reduces the battery peak current. More importantly, a 38V-385Wh battery and a 16V-2.06Wh UC HESS hardware prototype and a real-time experiment platform has been developed. The real-time experiment results have successfully validated the real-time implementation feasibility and effectiveness of the real-time controller design for the battery-UC HESS. A battery State-of-Health (SoH) estimation model is developed as a performance metric to evaluate the battery cycle life extension effect. It is estimated that the proposed online energy management controller can extend the battery cycle life by over 60%.

Designing Efficient Subsidy Policies in a Regional Economy: A Multicriteria Decision-Making (MCDM)-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach

Since policy-makers usually pursue several conflicting objectives, policy-making can be understood as a multicriteria decision problem. Following the methodological proposal by André and Cardenete (2005) André, F. J. and Cardenete, M. A. 2005. Multicriteria Policy Making. Defining Efficient Policies in a General Equilibrium Model, Seville: Centro de Estudios Andaluces. Working Paper No. E2005/04, multi-objective programming is used in connection with a computable general equilibrium model to represent optimal policy-making and to obtain so-called efficient policies in an application to a regional economy (Andalusia, Spain). This approach is applied to the design of subsidy policies under two different scenarios. In the first scenario, it is assumed that the government is concerned just about two objectives: ensuring the profitability of a key strategic sector and increasing overall output. Finally, the scope of the exercise is enlarged by solving a problem with seven policy objectives, including both general and sectorial objectives. It is concluded that the observed policy could have been Pareto-improved in several directions.

Estudo sócio-ecológico sobre tráfico de seres humanos para fins de exploração laboral na região do Alentejo : análise espacial e estatística

O presente relatório, inserido no Mestrado em Gestão do Território, Área de Especialização em Deteção Remota e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica, lecionado pelo Departamento de Geografia e Planeamento Regional da Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas da Universidade Nova de Lisboa, pretende descrever o trabalho desenvolvido pelo mestrando enquanto estagiário no Observatório do Tráfico de Seres Humanos (OTSH). O relatório está estruturado em três capítulos distintos. No primeiro capítulo é realizada uma abordagem teórica sobre o Tráfico de Seres Humanos e a distinção entre o mesmo com o Auxílio à Imigração Ilegal. Neste, é também feita uma pequena referência à problemática dos novos fluxos de refugiados/migrantes que, no momento da realização do mesmo, constituem uma questão bastante complexa sobretudo ao nível europeu. No segundo capítulo é realizada uma caracterização da área de estudo, assim como a descrição dos dados utilizados e a metodologia aplicada no mesmo. No terceiro capítulo são apresentados os resultados finais do estudo e a cartografia de síntese que sustenta os mesmos. Para a realização deste estudo recorreu-se a uma análise multicritério em SIG para prever a localização de áreas de maior suscetibilidade de ocorrência de novos casos relativos ao crime do tráfico de seres humanos para exploração laboral na agricultura, na região do Alentejo (distritos de Beja, Évora e Portalegre), através do recurso a dados estatísticos disponibilizados tanto pelo OTSH, como por outras entidades. A metodologia apresentada integra um SIG baseado num modelo raster com o Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Através da realização deste estudo, a importância dos SIG como ferramenta no auxílio ao processo de tomada de decisão, pôde ser testada, conjuntamente com o processo metodológico AHP, através dos resultados apresentados. Com um possível desenvolvimento deste modelo analítico, pretende-se que o mesmo seja adaptável a outras regiões e em última instância, outros tipos de exploração e/ou tráfico.