Selecting methods to solve multi-well master equations

There are several competing methods commonly used to solve energy grained master equations describing gas-phase reactive systems. When it comes to selecting an appropriate method for any particular problem, there is little guidance in the literature. In this paper we directly compare several variants of spectral and numerical integration methods from the point of view of computer time required to calculate the solution and the range of temperature and pressure conditions under which the methods are successful. The test case used in the comparison is an important reaction in combustion chemistry and incorporates reversible and irreversible bimolecular reaction steps as well as isomerizations between multiple unimolecular species. While the numerical integration of the ODE with a stiff ODE integrator is not the fastest method overall, it is the fastest method applicable to all conditions.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Conception of a flexible integrator and lean model for integrated management systems

Management systems standards (MSSs) have developed in an unprecedented manner in the last few years. These MSS cover a wide array of different disciplines, aims and activities of organisations. Also, organisations are populated with an enormous diversity of independent management systems (MSs). An integrated management system (IMS) tends to integrate some or all components of the business. Maximising their integration in one coherent and efficient MS is increasingly a strategic priority and constitutes an opportunity for businesses to be more competitive and consequently, promote its sustainable success. Those organisations that are quicker and more efficient in their integration and continuous improvement will have a competitive advantage in obtaining sustainable value in our global and competitive business world. Several scholars have proposed various theoretical approaches regarding the integration of management sub-systems, leading to the conclusion that there is no common practice for all organisations as they encompass different characteristics. One other author shows that several tangible and intangible gains for organisations, as well as to their internal and external stakeholders, are achieved with the integration of the individual standardised MSs. The purpose of this work was to conceive a model, Flexible, Integrator and Lean for IMSs, according to ISO 9001 for quality; ISO 14001 for environment and OHSAS 18001 for occupational health and safety (IMS–QES), that can be adapted and progressively assimilate other MSs, such as, SA 8000/ISO 26000 for social accountability, ISO 31000 for risk management and ISO/IEC 27001 for information security management, among others. The IMS–QES model was designed in the real environment of an industrial Portuguese small and medium enterprise, that over the years has been adopting, gradually, in whole or in part, individual MSSs. The developed model is based on a preliminary investigation conducted through a questionnaire. The strategy and research methods have taken into consideration the case study. Among the main findings of the survey we highlight: the creation of added value for the business through the elimination of several organisational wastes; the integrated management of the sustainability components; the elimination of conflicts between independent MS; dialogue with the main stakeholders and commitment to their ongoing satisfaction and increased contribution to the company’s competitiveness; and greater valorisation and motivation of employees as a result of the expansion of their skill base, actions and responsibilities, with their consequent empowerment. A set of key performance indicators (KPIs) constitute the support, in a perspective of business excellence, to the follow up of the organisation’s progress towards the vision and achievement of the defined objectives in the context of each component of the IMS model. The conceived model had many phases and the one presented in this work is the last required for the integration of quality, environment, safety and others individual standardised MSs. Globally, the investigation results, by themselves, justified and prioritised the conception of an IMS–QES model, to be implemented at the company where the investigation was conducted, but also a generic model of an IMS, which may be more flexible, integrator and lean as possible, potentiating the efficiency, added value both in the present and, fundamentally, for future.

Prototyping Concurrent Systems in Cw

Software architecture is currently recognized as one of the most critical design steps in Software Engineering. The specification of the overall system structure, on the one hand, and of the interactions patterns between its components, on the other, became a major concern for the working developer. Although a number of formalisms to express behaviour and supply the indispensable calculational power to reason about designs, are available, the task of deriving architectural designs on top of popular component platforms has remained largely informal. This paper introduces a systematic approach to derive, from behavioural specifications written in Cw, the corresponding architectural skeletons in the Microsoft .NET framework in the form of executable code

SHACC: a functional prototyper for a component calculus

Over the last decade component-based software development arose as a promising paradigm to deal with the ever increasing complexity in software design, evolution and reuse. SHACC is a prototyping tool for component-based systems in which components are modelled coinductively as generalized Mealy machines. The prototype is built as a HASKELL library endowed with a graphical user interface developed in Swing

IDEA MANAGEMENT SYSTEM - AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT IN THE CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT OF QUALITY AND INNOVATION

It is known the power of ideas is tremendous. But there are employees in many companies who have good ideas but not put them into practice. On the other hand, there are many others who have good ideas and are encouraged to contribute their ideas for innovation in the company. This study attempts to identify factors that contribute to success in managing ideas and consequent business innovation. The method used was the case study applied to two companies. During the investigation, factors considered essential for the success of an idea management program were identified, of which we highlight, among others, evidences the results, involvement of the top management, establishment of goals and objectives; recognition; dissemination of good results. Companies with these implemented systems, capture the best ideas from their collaborators and apply them internally. This study intends to contribute to business innovation in enterprises through creation and idea management, mainly through collecting the best ideas of their own employees. The results of this study can be used to help improving deployed suggestions systems, as well as, all managers who wish to implement suggestions systems/ideas management systems.

A bot spooler architecture to integrate virtual worlds with e-learning management systems for corporate training

Joining efforts of academic and corporate teams, we developed an integration architecture - MULTIS - that enables corporate e-learning managers to use a Learning Management System (LMS) for management of educational activities in virtual worlds. This architecture was then implemented for the Formare LMS. In this paper we present this architecture and concretizations of its implementation for the Second Life Grid/OpenSimulator virtual world platforms. Current systems are focused on activities managed by individual trainers, rather than groups of trainers and large numbers of trainees: they focus on providing the LMS with information about educational activities taking place in a virtual world and/or being able to access within the virtual world some of the information stored in the LMS, and disregard the streamlining of activity setup and data collection in multi-trainer contexts, among other administrative issues. This architecture aims to overcome the limitations of existing systems for organizational management of corporate e-learning activities.

Building intelligence open systems (BIOS)

Os edifícios estão a ser construídos com um número crescente de sistemas de automação e controlo não integrados entre si. Esta falta de integração resulta num caos tecnológico, o que cria dificuldades nas três fases da vida de um edifício, a fase de estudo, a de implementação e a de exploração. O desenvolvimento de Building Automation System (BAS) tem como objectivo assegurar condições de conforto, segurança e economia de energia. Em edifícios de grandes dimensões a energia pode representar uma percentagem significativa da factura energética anual. Um BAS integrado deverá contribuir para uma diminuição significativa dos custos de desenvolvimento, instalação e gestão do edifício, o que pode também contribuir para a redução de CO2. O objectivo da arquitectura proposta é contribuir para uma estratégia de integração que permita a gestão integrada dos diversos subsistemas do edifício (e.g. aquecimento, ventilação e ar condicionado (AVAC), iluminação, segurança, etc.). Para realizar este controlo integrado é necessário estabelecer uma estratégia de cooperação entre os subsistemas envolvidos. Um dos desafios para desenvolver um BAS com estas características consistirá em estabelecer a interoperabilidade entre os subsistemas como um dos principais objectivos a alcançar, dado que o fornecimento dos referidos subsistemas assenta normalmente numa filosofia multi-fornecedor, sendo desenvolvidos usando tecnologias heterogéneas. Desta forma, o presente trabalho consistiu no desenvolvimento de uma plataforma que se designou por Building Intelligence Open System (BIOS). Na implementação desta plataforma adoptou-se uma arquitectura orientada a serviços ou Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) constituída por quatro elementos fundamentais: um bus cooperativo, denominado BIOSbus, implementado usando Jini e JavaSpaces, onde todos os serviços serão ligados, disponibilizando um mecanismo de descoberta e um mecanismo que notificada as entidades interessadas sobre alterações do estado de determinado componente; serviços de comunicação que asseguram a abstracção do Hardware utilizado da automatização das diversas funcionalidades do edifício; serviços de abstracção de subsistemas no acesso ao bus; clientes, este podem ser nomeadamente uma interface gráfica onde é possível fazer a gestão integrada do edifício, cliente de coordenação que oferece a interoperabilidade entre subsistemas e os serviços de gestão energética que possibilita a activação de algoritmos de gestão racional de energia eléctrica.

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.

ABS4GD: a multi-agent system that simulates group decision processes considering emotional and argumentative aspects

Emotion although being an important factor in our every day life it is many times forgotten in the development of systems to be used by persons. In this work we present an architecture for a ubiquitous group decision support system able to support persons in group decision processes. The system considers the emotional factors of the intervenient participants, as well as the argumentation between them. Particular attention will be taken to one of components of this system: the multi-agent simulator, modeling the human participants, considering emotional characteristics, and allowing the exchanges of hypothetic arguments among the participants.

ISEM: a multi-agent system that simulates competitive electronic marketplaces

With the increasing importance of large commerce across the Internet it is becoming increasingly evident that in a few years the Iternet will host a large number of interacting software agents. a vast number of them will be economically motivated, and will negociate a variety of goods and services. It is therefore important to consider the economic incentives and behaviours of economic software agents, and to use all available means to anticipate their collective interactions. This papers addresses this concern by presenting a multi-agent market simulator designed for analysing agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviours, preference models and pricing algorithms, consideting risk preferences. The system includes agents that are capable of increasing their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions. The results of the negotiations between agents are analysed by data minig algorithms in order to extract rules that give agents feedback to imprive their strategies.

Group decision making and Quality-of-information in e-Health systems

Knowledge is central to the modern economy and society. Indeed, the knowledge society has transformed the concept of knowledge and is more and more aware of the need to overcome the lack of knowledge when has to make options or address its problems and dilemmas. One’s knowledge is less based on exact facts and more on hypotheses, perceptions or indications. Even when we use new computational artefacts and novel methodologies for problem solving, like the use of Group Decision Support Systems (GDSSs), the question of incomplete information is in most of the situations marginalized. On the other hand, common sense tells us that when a decision is made it is impossible to have a perception of all the information involved and the nature of its intrinsic quality. Therefore, something has to be made in terms of the information available and the process of its evaluation. It is under this framework that a Multi-valued Extended Logic Programming language will be used for knowledge representation and reasoning, leading to a model that embodies the Quality-of-Information (QoI) and its quantification, along the several stages of the decision-making process. In this way, it is possible to provide a measure of the value of the QoI that supports the decision itself. This model will be here presented in the context of a GDSS for VirtualECare, a system aimed at sustaining online healthcare services.

Scalable Unified Transform Architecture for Advanced Video Coding Embedded Systems

A novel high throughput and scalable unified architecture for the computation of the transform operations in video codecs for advanced standards is presented in this paper. This structure can be used as a hardware accelerator in modern embedded systems to efficiently compute all the two-dimensional 4 x 4 and 2 x 2 transforms of the H.264/AVC standard. Moreover, its highly flexible design and hardware efficiency allows it to be easily scaled in terms of performance and hardware cost to meet the specific requirements of any given video coding application. Experimental results obtained using a Xilinx Virtex-5 FPGA demonstrated the superior performance and hardware efficiency levels provided by the proposed structure, which presents a throughput per unit of area relatively higher than other similar recently published designs targeting the H.264/AVC standard. Such results also showed that, when integrated in a multi-core embedded system, this architecture provides speedup factors of about 120x concerning pure software implementations of the transform algorithms, therefore allowing the computation, in real-time, of all the above mentioned transforms for Ultra High Definition Video (UHDV) sequences (4,320 x 7,680 @ 30 fps).