Detecting and evaluating land cover change in the eastern half of East Timor (1972-2011)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Assessing the impacts of land use and land cover change on hydrology of watershed: a case study on Gigel-Abbay Watershed, Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Validation of Two US Risk Scores for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a Single-Center Portuguese Population of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

Internationalization process of h3 to the US market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The effects of land-use development policies on forest management

This paper develops a model of a forest owner operating in an open-city environment, where the rent for developed land is increasing concave in nearby preserved open space and is rising over time reflecting an upward trend in households’ income. Thus, our model creates the possibility of switching from forestry to residential use at some point in the future. In addition it allows the optimal harvest length to vary over time even if stumpage prices and regeneration costs remain constant. Within this framework we examine how adjacent preserved open space and alternative development constraints affect the private landowner´s decisions. We find that in the presence of rising income, preserved open space hastens regeneration and conversion cuts but leads to lower density development of nearby unzoned parcels due to indirect dynamic effects. We also find that both a binding development moratorium and a binding minimum-lot-size policy can postpone regeneration and conversion cut dates and thus help to protect open space even if only temporarily. However, the policies do not have the same effects on development density of converted forestland. While the former leads to high-density development, the latter encourages low-density development.

Analysis of urban land use and land cover changes: a case of study in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Exploring the predictive power of Google searches over the US stock market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Aplicação de um sistema automatizado (ALES - Automated Land Evaluation System) na avaliação das terras das microrregiões de Chapecó e Xanxerê, Oeste Catarinense, para o cultivo de grãos.

A avaliação de terras é o processo que permite estimar o uso potencial da terra com base em seus atributos. Grande variedade de modelos analíticos pode ser usada neste processo. No Brasil, os dois sistemas de avaliação das terras mais utilizados são o Sistema de Classificação da Capacidade de Uso da Terra e o Sistema FAO/Brasileiro de Aptidão Agrícola das Terras. Embora difiram em vários aspectos, ambos exigem o cruzamento de inúmeras variáveis ambientais. O ALES (Automated Land Evaluation System) é um programa de computador que permite construir sistemas especialistas para avaliação de terras. As entidades avaliadas pelo ALES são as unidades de mapeamento, as quais podem ser de caráter generalizado ou detalhado. A área objeto desta avaliação é composta pelas microrregiões de Chapecó e Xanxerê, no Oeste catarinense, e engloba 54 municípios. Os dados sobre os solos e sobre as características da paisagem foram obtidos no levantamento de reconhecimento dos solos do Estado, na escala de 1:250.000. O presente estudo desenvolveu o sistema especialista ATOSC (Avaliação das Terras do Oeste de Santa Catarina) e, na sua construção, incluiu-se a definição dos requerimentos dos tipos de utilização da terra, bem como foi feita a subsequente comparação destes com os atributos de cada unidade de mapeamento. Os tipos de utilização da terra considerados foram: feijão, milho, soja e trigo, em cultivos solteiros, sob condições de sequeiro e de manejo característicos destas culturas no Estado. As informações sobre os recursos naturais compreendem os atributos climáticos, de solos e das condições da paisagem que interferem na produção destas culturas. Para cada tipo de utilização da terra foram especificados, no ATOSC, o código, o nome e seus respectivos requerimentos de uso da terra. Os requerimentos de cada cultura foram definidos por uma combinação específica das características das terras selecionadas, que determina o nível de severidade de cada um deles em relação à cultura. Estabeleceram-se quatro níveis de severidade que indicam aumento do grau de limitação ou diminuição do potencial para determinado tipo de uso da terra, a saber: limitação nula ou ligeira (favorável); limitação moderada (moderadamente favorável), limitação forte (pouco favorável); e limitação muito forte (desfavorável). Na árvore de decisão, componente básico do sistema especialista, são implementadas as regras que permitirão o enquadramento das terras em classes de adequação definidas, baseado na qualidade dos requerimentos de acordo com o tipo de uso. O ATOSC facilitou o processo de comparação entre as características das terras das microrregiões de Chapecó e Xanxerê e os requerimentos de uso considerados, por permitir efetuar automaticamente a avaliação das terras, reduzindo, assim, o tempo gasto neste processo. As terras das microrregiões de Chapecó e Xanxerê foram enquadradas, em sua maior parte, nas classes de adequação pouco favorável (3) e desfavorável (4) para os cultivos considerados. Os principais fatores limitantes identificados nestas microrregiões foram a fertilidade natural e o risco de erosão, para o feijão e o milho, e condições de mecanização e risco de erosão, para a soja e o trigo.

Phlebotominae sand flies associated with a tegumentary leishmaniasis outbreak, Tucumán Province, Argentina

The distribution of sand flies and cases of tegumentary leishmaniasis in the area surrounding JB Alberd city, and the proximities of Catamarca province were studied, after an increase of reported cases from JB Alberdi, Tucumán province, in 2003. Of 14 confirmed cases, 57% were females and 57% were less than 15 years old, suggesting peridomestic transmission. However, 86% of them lived close to the Marapa river forest gallery and related wooded areas. Over 1,013 sand flies were collected; Lutzomyia neivai (Pinto, 1926) was prevalent at all the sites (92.3%), while Lutzomyia migonei (França, 1920) (6.7%) and Lu. cortelezzii (Brèthes, 1923) (1%) were also found. The spatial distribution of Lu. neivai overlapped that of the cases, with higher abundance in microfocal hot spots close to the river in stable vegetated habitats or modified habitats with shadow and animal blood sources. The cumulative outcome of anthropic, ecological and climatic factors could have contributed to the onset of the outbreak.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

Sand fly captures with Disney traps in area of occurrence of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, mid-western Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The work was conducted to study phlebotomine fauna (Diptera: Psychodidae) and aspects of American cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission in a forested area where Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis occurs, situated in the municipality of Bela Vista, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: The captures were conducted with modified Disney traps, using hamster (Mesocricetus auratus) as bait, from May 2004 to January 2006. RESULTS: Ten species of phlebotomine sandflies were captured: Brumptomyia avellari, Brumptomyia brumpti, Bichromomyia flaviscutellata, Evandromyia bourrouli, Evandromyia lenti, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psathyromyia campograndensis, Psathyromyia punctigeniculata, Psathyromyia shannoni and Sciopemyia sordellii. The two predominant species were Ev bourrouli (57.3%) and Bi flaviscutellata (41.4%), present at all sampling sites. Two of the 36 hamsters used as bait presented natural infection with Leishmania. The parasite was identified as Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the results revealed the efficiency of Disney traps for capturing Bichromomyia flaviscutellata and the simultaneous presence of both vector and the Leishmania species transmitted by the same can be considered a predictive factor of the occurrence of leishmaniasis outbreaks for the human population that occupies the location.

Analysis of panoramio photo tags in order to extract land use information

In the recent past, hardly anyone could predict this course of GIS development. GIS is moving from desktop to cloud. Web 2.0 enabled people to input data into web. These data are becoming increasingly geolocated. Big amounts of data formed something that is called "Big Data". Scientists still don't know how to deal with it completely. Different Data Mining tools are used for trying to extract some useful information from this Big Data. In our study, we also deal with one part of these data - User Generated Geographic Content (UGGC). The Panoramio initiative allows people to upload photos and describe them with tags. These photos are geolocated, which means that they have exact location on the Earth's surface according to a certain spatial reference system. By using Data Mining tools, we are trying to answer if it is possible to extract land use information from Panoramio photo tags. Also, we tried to answer to what extent this information could be accurate. At the end, we compared different Data Mining methods in order to distinguish which one has the most suited performances for this kind of data, which is text. Our answers are quite encouraging. With more than 70% of accuracy, we proved that extracting land use information is possible to some extent. Also, we found Memory Based Reasoning (MBR) method the most suitable method for this kind of data in all cases.

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in the State of Pernambuco

INTRODUCTION: Phlebotomine sand flies are small insects of great medical relevance. This article presents an updated list of the phlebotomine sand flies occurring in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. METHODS: A review of literature published since the 1940s up to May 2010 was conducted and voucher material deposited in reference collections were studied. RESULTS: A total of 37 phlebotomine species have previously been reported as occurring in Pernambuco, but the record of six species needs confirmation. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides an updated list of phlebotomine sand flies of Pernambuco, with some notes on their taxonomy, ecology, distribution and epidemiological relevance.

Effects of ocean acidification on the swimming ability, development and biochemical responses of sand smelt larvae

Ocean acidification, recognized as a major threat to marine ecosystems, has developed into one of the fastest growing fields of research in marine sciences. Several studies on fish larval stages point to abnormal behaviours, malformations and increased mortality rates as a result of exposure to increased levels of CO2. However, other studies fail to recognize any consequence, suggesting species-specific sensitivity to increased levels of CO2, highlighting the need of further research. In this study we investigated the effects of exposure to elevated pCO2 on behaviour, development, oxidative stress and energy metabolism of sand smelt larvae, Atherina presbyter. Larvae were caught at Arrábida Marine Park (Portugal) and exposed to different pCO2 levels (control: ~600μatm, pH=8.03; medium: ~1000μatm, pH=7.85; high: ~1800μatm, pH=7.64) up to 15days, after which critical swimming speed (Ucrit), morphometric traits and biochemical biomarkers were determined. Measured biomarkers were related with: 1) oxidative stress - superoxide dismutase and catalase enzyme activities, levels of lipid peroxidation and DNA damage, and levels of superoxide anion production; 2) energy metabolism - total carbohydrate levels, electron transport system activity, lactate dehydrogenase and isocitrate dehydrogenase enzyme activities. Swimming speed was not affected by treatment, but exposure to increasing levels of pCO2 leads to higher energetic costs and morphometric changes, with larger larvae in high pCO2 treatment and smaller larvae in medium pCO2 treatment. The efficient antioxidant response capacity and increase in energetic metabolism only registered at the medium pCO2 treatment may indicate that at higher pCO2 levels the capacity of larvae to restore their internal balance can be impaired. Our findings illustrate the need of using multiple approaches to explore the consequences of future pCO2 levels on organisms.