Conserving marginal populations of the foodplant (Impatiens noli-tangere) of an endangered moth (Eustroma reticulatum) in a changing climate

Impatiens noli-tangere is scarce in the UK and probably only native to the Lake District and Wales. It is the sole food plant for the endangered moth Eustroma reticulattum. Significant annual fluctuations in the size of I. noli-tangere populations endanger the continued presence of E. reticulatum in the UK. In this study, variation in population size was monitored across native populations of L noli-tangere in the English Lake District and Wales. In 1998, there was a crash in the population size of all metapopulations in the Lake District but not of those found in Wales. A molecular survey of the genetic affinities of samples in 1999 from both regions and a reference population from Switzerland was performed using AFLP and ISSR analyses. The consensus UPGMA dendrogram and a PCO scatter plot revealed clear differentiation between the populations of L noli-tangere in Wales and those in the Lake District. Most of the genetic variation in the UK (H-T= 0.064) was partitioned between (G(ST) = 0.455) rather than within (H-S = 0.034) regions, inferring little gene flow occurs between regions. There was similar bias towards differentiation between metapopulations in Wales, again consistent with low levels of interpopulation gene flow. This contrasts with far lower levels of differentiation in the Lake District which suggests modest rates of gene flow may occur between populations. It is concluded that in the event of local extinction of sites or populations, reintroductions should be restricted to samples collected from the same region. We then surveyed climatic variables to identify those most likely to cause local extinctions. Climatic correlates of population size were sought from two Lake District metapopulations situated close to a meteorological station. A combination of three climatic variables common to both sites explained 81-84% of the variation in plant number between 1990 and 2001. Projected trends for these climatic variables were used in a Monte Carlo simulation which suggested an increased risk of I. noli-tangere population crashes by 2050 at Coniston Water. but not at Derwentwater. Implications of these findings for practical conservation strategies are explored. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is speeding a "real" antisocial behavior? A comparison with other antisocial behaviors

The relationship between speed and crashes has been well established in the literature, with the consequence that speed reduction through enforced or other means should lead to a reduction in crashes. The extent to which the public regard speeding as a problem that requires enforcement is less clear. Analysis was conducted on public perceptions of antisocial behaviors including speeding traffic. The data was collected as part of the British Crime Survey, a face-to-face interview with UK residents on issues relating to crime. The antisocial behavior section required participants to state the degree to which they perceived 16 antisocial behaviors to be a problem in their area. Results revealed that speeding traffic was perceived as the greatest problem in local communities, regardless of whether respondents were male or female, young, middle aged, or old. The rating of speeding traffic as the greatest problem in the community was replicated in a second, smaller postal survey, where respondents also provided strong support for enforcement on residential roads, and indicated that traveling immediately above the speed limit on residential roads was unacceptable. Results are discussed in relation to practical implications for speed enforcement, and the prioritization of limited police resources. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cycles and steps in British commercial property values

This paper examines cyclical behaviour in commercial property values over the period 1956 to 1996, using a structural times series (unobserved components) approach. The influence of the transition to short rent reviews during the late 1960s and the short and long-term impacts of the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are also incorporated into the analysis, via dummy variables. It is found that once these variables are taken into account a fairly regular cyclical pattern can be discerned, with a period of about 7.8 years. Furthermore, the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are shown to have had a major long-term impact on property value growth (presumably via their influence on investors' expectations).

Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents

We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account the market price and the perceived fundamental value of the asset. The resulting excess demand is coupled to the market price. Rigorous analysis reveals that this feedback may lead to price oscillations, a single bounce, or monotonic price behaviour. The model is a rare example of an analytically tractable interacting-agent model which allows LIS to deduce in detail the origin of these different collective patterns. For a natural choice of initial distribution, the results are independent of the graph structure that models the peer network of agents whose decisions influence each other. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sustaining dietary changes for preventing obesity and diabetes: lessons learned from the successes of other epidemic control programs

A degree of success has been achieved in controlling several epidemics of infectious and non-infectious causes of death in countries, such as, Australia and New Zealand. Using the epidemiological triad (host, vector, environment) as a model, the key components of the control of these epidemics have been identified and compared to the current status of interventions to prevent obesity and its main disease consequence, type 2 diabetes. Reductions in mortality from tobacco, cardiovascular diseases, road crashes, cervical cancer and sudden infant death syndrome have been achieved by addressing all corners of the triad. Similarly, prevention programs have minimized the mortality from HIV AIDS and melanoma mortality rates are no longer rising. The main lessons learned from these prevention programs that could be applied to the obesity/diabetes epidemic are: taking a more comprehensive approach by increasing the environmental (mainly policy-based) initiatives; increasing the 'dose' of interventions through greater investment in programs; exploring opportunities to further influence the energy density of manufactured foods (one of the main vectors for increased energy intake); developing and communicating specific, action messages; and developing a stronger advocacy voice so that there is greater professional, public and political support for action. Successes in the other epidemics have been achieved in the face of substantial barriers within individuals, society, the private sector and government. The barriers for preventing obesity/diabetes are no less formidable, but the strategies for surmounting them have been well tested in other epidemics.

EBanking adaptation and dot.com viability : a comparison of Australian and Indian experiences in the banking sector

With the advent of widely-accepted eBusiness activities, many banks have floated dot.com entities to create a presence on the Internet and take advantage of its power and reach. Like many other businesses, banks expected an increase in market capitalisation as a result of their dot.com floats, perceived broadly as a measure of growing profitability. Despite the negative publicity that the recent spate of dot.com crashes has generated, banks seem to continue floating online spin-offs. Our exploratory study investigates this phenomenon, studying the drivers for change in the evolution of the banking sector, and the move towards electronic banking. We focussed on two economies – Australia and India – to aggregate the major factors in this evolution from the perspective of two disparate economies.

The paper describes our qualitative, document-based investigation of the Australian and Indian banking sectors, and subsequent quantitative analysis of the impact of dot.com floats on market capitalisation within this market sector. We then describe the effect of applying both Transaction Cost Economics to our findings, which indicates that the cost of transacting business has been reduced overall by the creation of dot.com entities; and “catch-up, fall-behind, forge ahead” theory to gain an economic perspective. The paper provides both practical assistance for banks in making decisions regarding e-portfolios, as well as for policy makers in the economies reviewed; and has the potential to contribute to academic research into eBanking more generally.

The Melbourne 2006 Commonwealth Games : what does it mean for the local property market?

In 2006 Melbourne will host the 18th Commonwealth Games with Brisbane being the last Australian city to host this event over two decades ago in 1982. Melbourne has not held a major global sporting event since the 1956 Olympic Games, although the 2006 Commonwealth Games follows on from the successful 2000 Sydney Olympics. These sporting events have continued to grow from strength to strength, and have been assisted by Australia's close affiliation with sport and the widespread global media coverage. In a similar manner to other sporting events that Melbourne hosts, including the Australian Tennis Open, Formula One Grand Prix, Motorcycle Grand Prix, Melbourne Cup and Australian Football League, the city and its inhabitants are consumed by these events. The 2006 Commonwealth Games is certain to follow this trend.
The task of hosting the Commonwealth Games is enormous, although actively pursued in a fierce bidding process by competing cities. The benefits are undisputed and include an influx of visitors to the host city, an opportunity to enhance or rebuild infrastructure such as transport, plus the worldwide focus on the host city before and during the event. A high level of planning is undertaken for years well in advance of the event, and this may have an effect on the surrounding property market. Through the media both buyers and sellers are constantly reminded of the upcoming Games, the venues and the increased demand that will occur. Accordingly, this research investigates the task of hosting a major global sporting event such as the Commonwealth Games, and importantly how affects infrastructure in a host city. Attention is placed on the 2006 Commonwealth Games and the Melbourne property market. Whilst every host city differs in characteristics such as size, location and timing of the event, the findings of this study will assist a future host city to plan for the highly irregular circumstances that accompany a high profile one-off major sporting event.

Vehicle design for minimum societal harm

A design technique was developed to provide the best protection to all occupants in the real-world crashes that occur on Australian roads. A team of experts from around the world was marshalled to analyse crash data, develop new information on impact injury and a new computer optimising technique for simulation of side impact crashes.

Dot.Com rise as an indicator of business growth and economic progress : a retrospective view on telecom and banking sectors in Australia and India

In the year 2000, businesses in banking and telecom sectors worldwide re-engineered their value chain by extending their services by adapting ebusiness through dot.com launches. Subsequently, their validity became questionable with the spate of dot.com crashes and the IT stock meltdown. This book takes a retrospective view, indicating that e-business, as measured by dot.com growth trends, was a positive indicator for business growth in the sector and overall economic growth as it stimulated the respective economies. The book details an inductive analysis that studied if dot.com floats suggested any positive market capitalisation (broadly regarded as a measure of profitability) for the organisations, within two sectors, in two economies. In addition, there is detailed content analysis of global business trends, drivers, theories, sector/economy perspectives, achieved progress and instrumental cases. The book will be a view in retrospect for economists, business analysts, students of ebusiness and management (particularly MBA); academics and researchers.

A haptically enabled CAN-based steering wheel controller

As the portable entertainment and mobility technologies migrate into the car, driver distraction has become recognized as a major factor in road crashes around the world. To help alert drivers to their distraction, active safety technologies such as lane departure warning systems and collision avoidance systems are being implemented. One issue with the implementation of yet another technology into the vehicle is how to cut through the competing demands of the mobile phone, navigation systems and other technologies. Haptic alerts present just such a method that may enable the system to short-circuit the normal auditory or visual communication channels. This paper presents a low cost haptic steering wheel controller that has been designed developed and tested and may be used as a communication device by a lane departure, collision avoidance, or other type of safety system.

Predator behaviour and predation risk in the heterogeneous Arctic environment

1. Habitat heterogeneity and predator behaviour can strongly affect predator–prey interactions but these factors are rarely considered simultaneously, especially when systems encompass multiple predators and prey.

2. In the Arctic, greater snow geese Anser caerulescens atlanticus L. nest in two structurally different habitats: wetlands that form intricate networks of water channels, and mesic tundra where such obstacles are absent. In this heterogeneous environment, goose eggs are exposed to two types of predators: the arctic fox Vulpes lagopus L. and a diversity of avian predators. We hypothesized that, contrary to birds, the hunting ability of foxes would be impaired by the structurally complex wetland habitat, resulting in a lower predation risk for goose eggs.

3. In addition, lemmings, the main prey of foxes, show strong population cycles. We thus further examined how their fluctuations influenced the interaction between habitat heterogeneity and fox predation on goose eggs.

4. An experimental approach with artificial nests suggested that foxes were faster than avian predators to find unattended goose nests in mesic tundra whereas the reverse was true in wetlands. Foxes spent 3·5 times more time between consecutive attacks on real goose nests in wetlands than in mesic tundra. Their attacks on goose nests were also half as successful in wetlands than in mesic tundra whereas no difference was found for avian predators.

5. Nesting success in wetlands (65%) was higher than in mesic tundra (56%) but the difference between habitats increased during lemming crashes (15%) compared to other phases of the cycle (5%). Nests located at the edge of wetland patches were also less successful than central ones, suggesting a gradient in accessibility of goose nests in wetlands for foxes.

6. Our study shows that the structural complexity of wetlands decreases predation risk from foxes but not avian predators in arctic-nesting birds. Our results also demonstrate that cyclic lemming populations indirectly alter the spatial distribution of productive nests due to a complex interaction between habitat structure, prey-switching and foraging success of foxes.

Occupational light vehicle use: characterising the at-risk population

Previous occupational light vehicle research has concentrated on employees using cars. The aim of this study was to identify and characterise the total occupational light vehicle-user population and compare it with the privately-used light vehicle population. Occupational light vehicle and private light vehicle populations were identified through use-related 2003 registration categories from New South Wales Roads and Traffic Authority data. Key groups of occupational light vehicle registration variables were comparatively assessed as potential determinants of occupational light vehicleuser risks. These comparisons were expressed as odds ratios with 95% Confidence Intervals. The occupational light vehicle population vehicles (n=646,201) comprised 18% of all light vehicle registrations. A number of statistical differences emerge between the two populations. For instance, 86% of occupational light vehicle registrants were male versus 65% of private registrants, and 56% of the occupational users registered load shape vehicles versus 20% of the private registrants. Occupational light vehicles registered for farming or taxi use were more than six times more likely to belong to sole-traders than organisations. Sole-traders were nearly twice as likely to register light-trucks, and twice as likely to register older vehicles, than organisations. This study demonstrates that the occupational light vehicle user population is larger and more diverse than previously shown with characteristics likely to increase the relative risks of motor vehicle crashes. More occupational light vehicles were load shapes and therefore likely to have poorer crashworthiness ratings than cars. Occupational light vehicles are frequently used by sole-traders for activities with increased OHS risks including farming and taxi use. Further exploration of occupational light vehicle-user crash risks should include all vehicle types, work arrangements and small ‘fleets’.

Determinants of stock returns: Factors or systematic co-moments? Crisis versus non-crisis periods

In this paper we evaluate the intertemporal pricing performance of stock return determinants over the periods surrounding, and outside of, financial crises. The analysis focuses on the variables of size, book-to-market ratio, momentum, liquidity, and higher-order systematic co-moments. The evidence reveals that over non-crisis periods the market beta plays an important role in determining the cross-section of stock returns. Size, value, momentum, and liquidity also exhibit associations with the cross-section of stock returns. However, over crisis periods most of the variables we examined lose their explanatory power, suggesting that their usefulness is limited for investment purposes when financial markets experience crises. There is some evidence of coskewness pricing surrounding market crashes. Practitioners may consider coskewness over crisis periods.

Risky driving in young adults : A review of the literature

Young drivers aged between 16 and 25 are consistently over-represented in fatal crash statistics and are more likely than older drivers to be involved in a range of intentional risky driving behaviours, such as drink driving, speeding, drag racing, and tailgating. This paper reports the fndings of a systematic search of published peer-reviewed literature, identifying the association between age and the characteristics of risky drivers, as well as interventions that have been developed to improve their safety. The results suggest that it is young males who are predominantly involved in unsafe driving and that these drivers are generally high in reward sensitivity, have antisocial peers, and believe that they are not dangerous drivers. Further to this, deterrence-based interventions have shown limited efectiveness for the specifc category of 'hoon' drivers, suggesting the need for targeted interventions across a multitude of domains. Efective intervention requires an understanding of the antecedents of dangerous driving behaviour, and it is concluded that interventions might be most efective when targeted towards these identifed criminogenic needs.

Patterns of connectivity and population structure of the southern calamary Sepioteuthis australis in southern Australia

The southern calamary, Sepioteuthis australis, is a commercially and recreationally important inshore cephalopod endemic to southern Australia and New Zealand. Typical of other cephalopods, S. australis has a short life span, form nearshore spawning aggregations and undergo direct development. Such life history traits may restrict connectivity between spawning grounds creating highly structured and genetically differentiated populations that are susceptible to population crashes. Here we use seven polymorphic microsatellite markers to assess connectivity and population structure of S. australis across a large part of its geographic range in Australia. Little genetic differentiation was found between sampling locations. Overall, FST was low (0.005, 95% CI≤<0.001-0.011) and we detected no significant genetic differentiation between any of the locations sampled. There was no strong relationship between genetic and geographical distance, and our neighbour joining analysis did not show clustering of clades based on geographical locations. Similarly, network analysis showed strong connectivity amongst most locations, in particular, Tasmania appears to be well connected with several other locations and may act as an important source population. High levels of gene flow and connectivity between S. australis sampling sites across Australia are important for this short-lived species, ensuring resilience against spatial and temporal mortality fluctuations.