Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Novel hardwired distributive tactile sensing system for medical applications

This thesis described the research carried out on the development of a novel hardwired tactile sensing system tailored for the application of a next generation of surgical robotic and clinical devices, namely a steerable endoscope with tactile feedback, and a surface plate for patient posture and balance. Two case studies are examined. The first is a one-dimensional sensor for the steerable endoscope retrieving shape and ‘touch’ information. The second is a two-dimensional surface which interprets the three-dimensional motion of a contacting moving load. This research can be used to retrieve information from a distributive tactile sensing surface of a different configuration, and can interpret dynamic and static disturbances. This novel approach to sensing has the potential to discriminate contact and palpation in minimal invasive surgery (MIS) tools, and posture and balance in patients. The hardwired technology uses an embedded system based on Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) as the platform to perform the sensory signal processing part in real time. High speed robust operation is an advantage from this system leading to versatile application involving dynamic real time interpretation as described in this research. In this research the sensory signal processing uses neural networks to derive information from input pattern from the contacting surface. Three neural network architectures namely single, multiple and cascaded were introduced in an attempt to find the optimum solution for discrimination of the contacting outputs. These architectures were modelled and implemented into the FPGA. With the recent introduction of modern digital design flows and synthesis tools that essentially take a high-level sensory processing behaviour specification for a design, fast prototyping of the neural network function can be achieved easily. This thesis outlines the challenge of the implementations and verifications of the performances.

Characteristics of Brillouin gain based distributed temperature sensors

A Brillouin-gain based distributed temperature sensor has been investigated experimentally and theoretically. The relation between Brillouin gain, input probe power and sensing length have been studied. The study shows that there is an optimum probe power providing a maximum Brillouin gain signal for a given sensing length.

Design methodology for the servo control of high speed multi-axis machinery (BL): decoupling and synchronisation of a generic machine by blockwise decentralised MIMO control

Traditional machinery for manufacturing processes are characterised by actuators powered and co-ordinated by mechanical linkages driven from a central drive. Increasingly, these linkages are replaced by independent electrical drives, each performs a different task and follows a different motion profile, co-ordinated by computers. A design methodology for the servo control of high speed multi-axis machinery is proposed, based on the concept of a highly adaptable generic machine model. In addition to the dynamics of the drives and the loads, the model includes the inherent interactions between the motion axes and thus provides a Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) description. In general, inherent interactions such as structural couplings between groups of motion axes are undesirable and needed to be compensated. On the other hand, imposed interactions such as the synchronisation of different groups of axes are often required. It is recognised that a suitable MIMO controller can simultaneously achieve these objectives and reconciles their potential conflicts. Both analytical and numerical methods for the design of MIMO controllers are investigated. At present, it is not possible to implement high order MIMO controllers for practical reasons. Based on simulations of the generic machine model under full MIMO control, however, it is possible to determine a suitable topology for a blockwise decentralised control scheme. The Block Relative Gain array (BRG) is used to compare the relative strength of closed loop interactions between sub-systems. A number of approaches to the design of the smaller decentralised MIMO controllers for these sub-systems has been investigated. For the purpose of illustration, a benchmark problem based on a 3 axes test rig has been carried through the design cycle to demonstrate the working of the design methodology.

Modelling the dynamics of cutting during turning

This thesis presents an approach to cutting dynamics during turning based upon the mechanism of deformation of work material around the tool nose known as "ploughing". Starting from the shearing process in the cutting zone and accounting for "ploughing", new mathematical models relating turning force components to cutting conditions, tool geometry and tool vibration are developed. These models are developed separately for steady state and for oscillatory turning with new and worn tools. Experimental results are used to determine mathematical functions expressing the parameters introduced by the steady state model in the case of a new tool. The form of these functions are of general validity though their coefficients are dependent on work and tool materials. Good agreement is achieved between experimental and predicted forces. The model is extended on one hand to include different work material by introducing a hardness factor. The model provides good predictions when predicted forces are compared to present and published experimental results. On the other hand, the extension of the ploughing model to taming with a worn edge showed the ability of the model in predicting machining forces during steady state turning with the worn flank of the tool. In the development of the dynamic models, the dynamic turning force equations define the cutting process as being a system for which vibration of the tool tip in the feed direction is the input and measured forces are the output The model takes into account the shear plane oscillation and the cutting configuration variation in response to tool motion. Theoretical expressions of the turning forces are obtained for new and worn cutting edges. The dynamic analysis revealed the interaction between the cutting mechanism and the machine tool structure. The effect of the machine tool and tool post is accounted for by using experimental data of the transfer function of the tool post system. Steady state coefficients are corrected to include the changes in the cutting configuration with tool vibration and are used in the dynamic model. A series of oscillatory cutting tests at various conditions and various tool flank wear levels are carried out and experimental results are compared with model—predicted forces. Good agreement between predictions and experiments were achieved over a wide range of cutting conditions. This research bridges the gap between the analysis of vibration and turning forces in turning. It offers an explicit expression of the dynamic turning force generated during machining and highlights the relationships between tool wear, tool vibration and turning force. Spectral analysis of tool acceleration and turning force components led to define an "Inertance Power Ratio" as a flank wear monitoring factor. A formulation of an on—line flank wear monitoring methodology is presented and shows how the results of the present model can be applied to practical in—process tool wear monitoring in • turning operations.

Symmetric operating point for increasing the extinction ratio of semiconductor based optical loop mirrors

Terahertz optical asymmetric demultiplexors (TOADs) use a semiconductor optical amplifier in an interferometer to create an all-optical switch and have potential uses in many optical networking applications. Here we demonstrate and compare experimentally a novel and simple method of dramatically increasing the extinction ratio of the device using a symmetrical configuration as compared to a ‘traditional’ configuration. The new configuration is designed to suppress the occurrence of self-switching in the device thus allowing signal pulses to be used at higher power levels. Using the proposed configuration an increase in extinction ratio of 10 dB has been measured on the transmitted port whilst benefiting from an improved input signal power handling capability.

Evaluating the appropriateness of speech input in marine applications : a field evaluation

This paper discusses the first of three studies which collectively represent a convergence of two ongoing research agendas: (1) the empirically-based comparison of the effects of evaluation environment on mobile usability evaluation results; and (2) the effect of environment - in this case lobster fishing boats - on achievable speech-recognition accuracy. We describe, in detail, our study and outline our results to date based on preliminary analysis. Broadly speaking, the potential for effective use of speech for data collection and vessel control looks very promising - surprisingly so! We outline our ongoing analysis and further work.

Flat-top pulse generation based on a fiber Bragg grating in transmission

We propose and analyze a flat-top pulse generator based on a fiber Bragg grating (FBG) in transmission. As is shown in the examples, a uniform period FBG properly designed can exhibit a spectral response in transmission close to sinc function (in amplitude and phase) in a certain bandwidth, because of the logarithm Hilbert transform relations, which can be used to reshape a Gaussian-like input pulse into a flat-top pulse.

Design of an ultrafast all-optical differentiator based on a fiber Bragg grating in transmission

We propose and analyze a first-order optical differentiator based on a fiber Bragg grating (FBG) in transmission. It is shown in the examples that a simple uniform-period FBG in a very strong coupling regime (maximum reflectivity very close to 100%) can perform close to ideal temporal differentiation of the complex envelope of an arbitrary-input optical signal.

Towards a web-based progressive handwriting recognition environment for mathematical problem solving

The emergence of pen-based mobile devices such as PDAs and tablet PCs provides a new way to input mathematical expressions to computer by using handwriting which is much more natural and efficient for entering mathematics. This paper proposes a web-based handwriting mathematics system, called WebMath, for supporting mathematical problem solving. The proposed WebMath system is based on client-server architecture. It comprises four major components: a standard web server, handwriting mathematical expression editor, computation engine and web browser with Ajax-based communicator. The handwriting mathematical expression editor adopts a progressive recognition approach for dynamic recognition of handwritten mathematical expressions. The computation engine supports mathematical functions such as algebraic simplification and factorization, and integration and differentiation. The web browser provides a user-friendly interface for accessing the system using advanced Ajax-based communication. In this paper, we describe the different components of the WebMath system and its performance analysis.

Video-based, real-time multi-view stereo

We investigate the problem of obtaining a dense reconstruction in real-time, from a live video stream. In recent years, multi-view stereo (MVS) has received considerable attention and a number of methods have been proposed. However, most methods operate under the assumption of a relatively sparse set of still images as input and unlimited computation time. Video based MVS has received less attention despite the fact that video sequences offer significant benefits in terms of usability of MVS systems. In this paper we propose a novel video based MVS algorithm that is suitable for real-time, interactive 3d modeling with a hand-held camera. The key idea is a per-pixel, probabilistic depth estimation scheme that updates posterior depth distributions with every new frame. The current implementation is capable of updating 15 million distributions/s. We evaluate the proposed method against the state-of-the-art real-time MVS method and show improvement in terms of accuracy. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clustering algorithm based on minimal path loss ratio for vehicular communication

Emerging vehicular comfort applications pose a host of completely new set of requirements such as maintaining end-to-end connectivity, packet routing, and reliable communication for internet access while on the move. One of the biggest challenges is to provide good quality of service (QoS) such as low packet delay while coping with the fast topological changes. In this paper, we propose a clustering algorithm based on minimal path loss ratio (MPLR) which should help in spectrum efficiency and reduce data congestion in the network. The vehicular nodes which experience minimal path loss are selected as the cluster heads. The performance of the MPLR clustering algorithm is calculated by rate of change of cluster heads, average number of clusters and average cluster size. Vehicular traffic models derived from the Traffic Wales data are fed as input to the motorway simulator. A mathematical analysis for the rate of change of cluster head is derived which validates the MPLR algorithm and is compared with the simulated results. The mathematical and simulated results are in good agreement indicating the stability of the algorithm and the accuracy of the simulator. The MPLR system is also compared with V2R system with MPLR system performing better. © 2013 IEEE.

Optimal input/output reduction in production processes

While conventional Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models set targets for each operational unit, this paper considers the problem of input/output reduction in a centralized decision making environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop an approach to input/output reduction problem that typically occurs in organizations with a centralized decision-making environment. This paper shows that DEA can make an important contribution to this problem and discusses how DEA-based model can be used to determine an optimal input/output reduction plan. An application in banking sector with limitation in IT investment shows the usefulness of the proposed method.

Productivity change using growth accounting and frontier-based approaches:evidence from a Monte Carlo analysis

This study presents some quantitative evidence from a number of simulation experiments on the accuracy of the productivitygrowth estimates derived from growthaccounting (GA) and frontier-based methods (namely data envelopment analysis-, corrected ordinary least squares-, and stochastic frontier analysis-based malmquist indices) under various conditions. These include the presence of technical inefficiency, measurement error, misspecification of the production function (for the GA and parametric approaches) and increased input and price volatility from one period to the next. The study finds that the frontier-based methods usually outperform GA, but the overall performance varies by experiment. Parametric approaches generally perform best when there is no functional form misspecification, but their accuracy greatly diminishes otherwise. The results also show that the deterministic approaches perform adequately even under conditions of (modest) measurement error and when measurement error becomes larger, the accuracy of all approaches (including stochastic approaches) deteriorates rapidly, to the point that their estimates could be considered unreliable for policy purposes.

Simultaneous ultrafast optical pulse train bursts generation and shaping based on Fourier series developments using superimposed fiber Bragg gratings

We propose an all-fiber method for the generation of ultrafast shaped pulse train bursts from a single pulse based on Fourier Series Developments (FDSs). The implementation of the FSD based filter only requires the use of a very simple non apodized Superimposed Fiber Bragg Grating (S-FBG) for the generation of the Shaped Output Pulse Train Burst (SOPTB). In this approach, the shape, the period and the temporal length of the generated SOPTB have no dependency on the input pulse rate.