A Complexity Based Model for Quantifying Forensic Evidential Probabilities

An operational complexity model (OCM) is proposed to enable the complexity of both the cognitive and the computational components of a process to be determined. From the complexity of formation of a set of traces via a specified route a measure of the probability of that route can be determined. By determining the complexities of alternative routes leading to the formation of the same set of traces, the odds ratio indicating the relative plausibility of the alternative routes can be found. An illustrative application to a BitTorrent piracy case is presented, and the results obtained suggest that the OCM is capable of providing a realistic estimate of the odds ratio for two competing hypotheses. It is also demonstrated that the OCM can be straightforwardly refined to encompass a variety of circumstances.

Models of complexity in Robert Coover's John's wife and the adventures of Lucky Pierre

This doctoral dissertation analyzes two novels by the American novelist Robert Coover as examples of hypertextual writing on the book bound page, as tokens of hyperfiction. The complexity displayed in the novels, John's Wife and The Adventures of Lucky Pierre, integrates the cultural elements that characterize the contemporary condition of capitalism and technologized practices that have fostered a different subjectivity evidenced in hypertextual writing and reading, the posthuman subjectivity. The models that account for the complexity of each novel are drawn from the concept of strange attractors in Chaos Theory and from the concept of rhizome in Nomadology. The transformations the characters undergo in the degree of their corporeality sets the plane on which to discuss turbulence and posthumanity. The notions of dynamic patterns and strange attractors, along with the concept of the Body without Organs and Rhizome are interpreted, leading to the revision of narratology and to analytical categories appropriate to the study of the novels. The reading exercised throughout this dissertation enacts Daniel Punday's corporeal reading. The changes in the characters' degree of materiality are associated with the stages of order, turbulence and chaos in the story, bearing on the constitution of subjectivity within and along the reading process. Coover's inscription of planes of consistency to counter linearity and accommodate hypertextual features to the paper supported narratives describes the characters' trajectory as rhizomatic. The study led to the conclusion that narrative today stands more as a regime in a rhizomatic relation with other regimes in cultural practice than as an exclusively literary form and genre. Besides this, posthuman subjectivity emerges as class identity, holding hypertextual novels as their literary form of choice.

Essays on decision sciences: exploring cognition, information processing, and complexity

This thesis provides three original contributions to the field of Decision Sciences. The first contribution explores the field of heuristics and biases. New variations of the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT--a test to measure "the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind"), are provided. The original CRT (S. Frederick [2005] Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 19:4, pp.24-42) has items in which the response is immediate--and erroneous. It is shown that by merely varying the numerical parameters of the problems, large deviations in response are found. Not only the final results are affected by the proposed variations, but so is processing fluency. It seems that numbers' magnitudes serve as a cue to activate system-2 type reasoning. The second contribution explores Managerial Algorithmics Theory (M. Moldoveanu [2009] Strategic Management Journal, v. 30, pp. 737-763); an ambitious research program that states that managers display cognitive choices with a "preference towards solving problems of low computational complexity". An empirical test of this hypothesis is conducted, with results showing that this premise is not supported. A number of problems are designed with the intent of testing the predictions from managerial algorithmics against the predictions of cognitive psychology. The results demonstrate (once again) that framing effects profoundly affect choice, and (an original insight) that managers are unable to distinguish computational complexity problem classes. The third contribution explores a new approach to a computationally complex problem in marketing: the shelf space allocation problem (M-H Yang [2001] European Journal of Operational Research, v. 131, pp.107--118). A new representation for a genetic algorithm is developed, and computational experiments demonstrate its feasibility as a practical solution method. These studies lie at the interface of psychology and economics (with bounded rationality and the heuristics and biases programme), psychology, strategy, and computational complexity, and heuristics for computationally hard problems in management science.

Diversidade de invertebrados em cavernas calcárias do oeste potiguar : subsídios para a determinação de áreas prioritárias para conservação.

It is estimated that the Brazilian karst areas sum about 200.000 km2. The caves, one of the main components of karst, are important windows into the biological studies on hypogean environments. In Rio Grande do Norte are known 563 caves, and 476 of them are in the municipalities of Baraúna, Felipe Guerra, Governador Dix-Sept Rosado, Apodi and Mossoró, the Western region of the State. However, like in the rest of the country, the cave fauna of the State is still poorly understood. This study used data from invertebrates harvested in 47 caves and aimed to analyze the effect of environmental change between the dry and rainy seasons in the communities of cave invertebrates, characterize these communities and evaluate the relationships between morphological and biotic variables of the caves and surroundings, and to define priority areas for conservation of cave environments of the study area from biotic parameters. Strong effects were found in the community structure of cave invertebrates due environmental changes between seasons, with values of total richness, abundance, diversity and ecological complexity significantly higher in the rainy season. It was possible to assess how the morphology of the cave and the external environment variables affect the biotic system, so that the variety of resources, forest cover in the vicinity, the area of the cave and its entrance were the variables that best explained the structure communities of cave invertebrates in the region. High values of total richness of invertebrates (36,62 ± 14,04 spp / cave) and troglomorphic species (61 species, mean 1,77 ± 2,34 spp / cave) were found and, given the biological relevance in the context of the area national and the imminent anthropogenic pressures existing, we defined four priority areas for actions aiming cave biodiversity conservation in the region.

Physiological and morphological responses to feeding in broad-nosed caiman (Caiman latirostris)

Broad nosed caiman are ectotherm sauropsids that naturally experience long fasting intervals. We have studied the postprandial responses by measuring oxygen consumption using respirometry, the size changes of the duodenum, the distal small intestine, and the liver, using repeated non-invasive ultrasonography, and by investigating structural changes on the level of tissues and cells by using light- and electron microscopy. The caimans showed the same rapid and reversible changes of organ size and identical histological features, down to the ultrastructure level, as previously described for other ectothermic sauropsids. We found a configuration change of the mucosa epithelium from pseudostratified during fasting to single layered during digestion, in association with hypertrophy of enterocytes by loading them with lipid droplets. Similar patterns were also found for the hepatocytes of the liver. By placing the results of our study in comparative relationship and by utilizing the phylogenetic bracket of crocodiles, birds and squamates, we suggest that the observed features are plesiomorphic characters of sauropsids. By extending the comparison to anurans, we suggest that morphological and physiological adjustments to feeding and fasting described here may have been a character of early tetrapods. In conclusion, we suggest that the ability to tolerate long fasting intervals and then swallow a single large meal as described for many sit-an-wait foraging sauropsids is a functional feature that was already present in ancestral tetrapods.

Morphological Notes on the Worker and Queen Larvae of the Thief Ant Solenopsis helena (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Myrmicinae) from Brazil

Young and mature larvae of queen and workers of the thief ant, Solenopsis helena, are herein described for the first time. Specimens were treated and described by usual methods of light and scanning electron microscopy. Many of the observed characteristics confirmed traits of the thief ant larva, reinforcing the assumption that they are a distinct group from fire ants. The larva of S. helena can be recognized from other close species by details of the mouthparts, but seem extensively similar to Solenopsis molesta. These findings are useful for taxonomic studies and phylogenetic inferences.

Morphological abnormalities and apoptosis in lamellar tissue of equines after intestinal obstruction and treatment with hydrocortisone

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Additional morphological characters and a new host for Aceria gymnoscuta Navia & Flechtmann (Acari, Eriophyidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Morphological characterisation of five brazilian species of Fidicinoides (Hemiptera: Cicadidae)

The objective of this study was to describe and illustrate the morphological characteristics of some species of Brazilian Fidicinoides to aid in their identification. Descriptions and illustrations are given of the head, thorax, abdomen, right forewing and the last urostemite of the male of the Fidicinoides besti, Fidicinoides brunnea, Fidicinoides duckensis, Fidicinoides pseudethelae and Fidicinoides sucinalae species. The main diagnostic characteristics of these species are markings on pronotum and/or mesonotum and male stemite VIII characteristics.

Morphological, behavioral and biological aspects of Azya luteipes Mulsant fed on Coccus viridis (Green)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Morphological description of Amblyomma brasiliense Aragão, 1908 (Acari: Ixodidae) larvae and nymphs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Relationships between physical, morphological, and physiological characteristics of seeds developed at different positions of the ear of two maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids

Maize seeds developed at different portions of the ear of two hybrids (one, a large seeded, and the other a small seeded hybrid) were compared as to physical positions, morphological, and physiological characteristics viewing to gain information to be used during seed conditioning. The number of positions in the ear were 10, starting at the proximal and ending at the distal end. For the sake of simplification, the data were combined to refer to seeds of the proximal, the central and the distal sectors of an ear. Measurements made of the seeds as to shape (length, width, and thickness) and as to size (1,000 seeds weight) indicated that the round seeds growing at the distal sector are significantly smaller (mainly when thickness is considered) and lighter than those growing at the proximal sector. on the other hand, determinations of the physiological quality indicated that the round-proximal and the central seeds are equivalent and both significantly superior to the round-distal ones, Considering these significant differences as to size, shape, and physiological quality, a proposition of suppressing part of the round-distal from the totallity of the round seeds during the operations of seed conditioning is made.

Morphological Aspects and Storage of Dypsis leptocheilos (Hodel) Beentje & J. Dransf. (Arecaceae) Seeds

Dypsis leptocheilos (Hodel) Beentje & J. Dransf. palms are widely used in landscaping, however there is a lack of studies about its biology, especially on the morphology of its seedling disseminules and the ideal seed storage time without loss of viability. The objectives of this work were to describe the morphological aspects and to study the storage effect on the germination of D. leptocheilos seeds. The experiments were performed at FCAV/UNESP, Jaboticabal Campus, São Paulo State, Brazil. In order to obtain a morphology description 100 disseminules were sowed in vermiculite. The external and internal sides of the disseminules as well as the representative phases of the germination process were sketched with the help of a light chamber attached to a stereomicroscope. Five treatments were arranged in order to study the storage effects on the seeds (four months of storage and straight after harvest), with four replicates with 25 disseminules each (seeds with attached endocarp) in a completely randomized design. The germination test was conducted over a 140 days period and noted every two days. In order to calculate the germination percentage (% G) and the Germination Speed Index (GSI), the seeds were considered germinated when the germinative button appeared. The data were submitted to a polynomial regression analysis to verify the behavior of the variables over the storage period. The D. leptocheilos seeds have rounded shape, ruminate endosperm and hard consistency. The embryo is lateral, peripheral and relatively undifferentiated, with approximately 3 mm long and conical shape. The germination percentage increased from 17% for seeds sowed straight after harvest to 73% for those stored over a three-month period. For the GSI the increase was about 0.85%. It was concluded that the germination of D. leptocheilos is of an adjacent ligulate type. Furthermore, the seeds stored for 3 months at 14 degrees C showed both higher percentage and germination speed.

Ecological distribution of stream macroalgae in different spatial scales using taxonomic and morphological groups

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)