Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Oscillation modes of microtubules.

Microtubules are long, filamentous protein complexes which play a central role in several cellular physiological processes, such as cell division transport and locomotion. Their mechanical properties are extremely important since they determine the biological function. In a recently published experiment [Phys. Rev. Lett. 89 (2002) 248101], microtubule's Young's and shear moduli were simultaneously measured, proving that they are highly anisotropic. Together with the known structure, this finding opens the way to better understand and predict their mechanical behavior under a particular set of conditions. In the present study, we modeled microtubules by using the finite elements method and analyzed their oscillation modes. The analysis revealed that oscillation modes involving a change in the diameter of the microtubules strongly depend on the shear modulus. In these modes, the correlation times of the movements are just slightly shorter than diffusion times of free molecules surrounding the microtubule. It could be therefore speculated that the matching of the two timescales could play a role in facilitating the interactions between microtubules and MT associated proteins, and between microtubules and tubulins themselves.

Multi-parametric evaluation of sit-to-stand and stand-to-sit transitions in elderly people.

The aim of this study was to extract multi-parametric measures characterizing different features of sit-to-stand (Si-St) and stand-to-sit (St-Si) transitions in older persons, using a single inertial sensor attached to the chest. Investigated parameters were transition's duration, range of trunk tilt, smoothness of transition pattern assessed by its fractal dimension, and trunk movement's dynamic described by local wavelet energy. A measurement protocol with a Si-St followed by a St-Si postural transition was performed by two groups of participants: the first group (N=79) included Frail Elderly subjects admitted to a post-acute rehabilitation facility and the second group (N=27) were healthy community-dwelling elderly persons. Subjects were also evaluated with Tinetti's POMA scale. Compared to Healthy Elderly persons, frail group at baseline had significantly longer Si-St (3.85±1.04 vs. 2.60±0.32, p=0.001) and St-Si (4.08±1.21 vs. 2.81±0.36, p=0.001) transition's duration. Frail older persons also had significantly decreased smoothness of Si-St transition pattern (1.36±0.07 vs. 1.21±0.05, p=0.001) and dynamic of trunk movement. Measurements after three weeks of rehabilitation in frail older persons showed that smoothness of transition pattern had the highest improvement effect size (0.4) and discriminative performance. These results demonstrate the potential interest of such parameters to distinguish older subjects with different functional and health conditions.

Temperature-dependent elasticity of microtubules

Central to the biological function of microtubules is their ability to modify their length which occurs by addition and removal of subunits at the ends of the polymer, both in vivo and in vitro. This dynamic behavior is strongly influenced by temperature. Here, we show that the lateral interaction between tubulin subunits forming microtubule is strongly temperature dependent. Microtubules deposited on prefabricated substrates were deformed in an atomic force microscope during imaging, in two different experimental geometries. Microtubules were modeled as anisotropic, with the Young's modulus corresponding to the resistance of protofilaments to stretching and the shear modulus describing the weak interaction between the protofilaments. Measurements involving radial compression of microtubules deposited on flat mica confirm that microtubule elasticity depends on the temperature. Bending measurements performed on microtubules deposited on lithographically fabricated substrates show that this temperature dependence is due to changing shear modulus, implying that the lateral interaction between the protofilaments is strongly determined by the temperature. These measurements are in good agreement with previously reported measurements of the disassembly rate of microtubules, demonstrating that the mechanical and dynamic properties of microtubules are closely related.

Validation of the New Mix Design Process for Cold In-Place Rehabilitation Using Foamed Asphalt, 2007

Asphalt pavement recycling has grown dramatically over the last few years as a viable technology to rehabilitate existing asphalt pavements. Iowa's current Cold In-place Recycling (CIR) practice utilizes a generic recipe specification to define the characteristics of the CIR mixture. As CIR continues to evolve, the desire to place CIR mixture with specific engineering properties requires the use of a mix design process. A new mix design procedure was developed for Cold In-place Recycling using foamed asphalt (CIR-foam) in consideration of its predicted field performance. The new laboratory mix design process was validated against various Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) materials to determine its consistency over a wide range of RAP materials available throughout Iowa. The performance tests, which include dynamic modulus test, dynamic creep test and raveling test, were conducted to evaluate the consistency of a new CIR-foam mix design process to ensure reliable mixture performance over a wide range of traffic and climatic conditions. The “lab designed” CIR will allow the pavement designer to take the properties of the CIR into account when determining the overlay thickness.

Biomechanical characterization and in vitro mechanical injury of elderly human femoral head cartilage: comparison to adult bovine humeral head cartilage.

OBJECTIVES: In vitro mechanical injury of articular cartilage is useful to identify events associated with development of post-traumatic osteoarthritis (OA). To date, many in vitro injury models have used animal cartilage despite the greater clinical relevance of human cartilage. We aimed to characterize a new in vitro injury model using elderly human femoral head cartilage and compare its behavior to that of an existing model with adult bovine humeral head cartilage. DESIGN: Mechanical properties of human and bovine cartilage disks were characterized by elastic modulus and hydraulic permeability in radially confined axial compression, and by Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, and direction-dependent radial strain in unconfined compression. Biochemical composition was assessed in terms of tissue water, solid, and glycosaminoglycan (GAG) contents. Responses to mechanical injury were assessed by observation of macroscopic superficial tissue cracks and histological measurements of cell viability following single injurious ramp loads at 7 or 70%/s strain rate to 3 or 14 MPa peak stress. RESULTS: Confined compression moduli and Young's moduli were greater in elderly human femoral cartilage vs adult bovine humeral cartilage whereas hydraulic permeability was less. Radial deformations of axially compressed explant disks were more anisotropic (direction-dependent) for the human cartilage. In both cartilage sources, tissue cracking and associated cell death during injurious loading was common for 14 MPa peak stress at both strain rates. CONCLUSION: Despite differences in mechanical properties, acute damage induced by injurious loading was similar in both elderly human femoral cartilage and adult bovine humeral cartilage, supporting the clinical relevance of animal-based cartilage injury models. However, inherent structural differences such as cell density may influence subsequent cell-mediated responses to injurious loading and affect the development of OA.

Variable Kernel estimates: On the impossibility of tuning the parameters

For the standard kernel density estimate, it is known that one can tune the bandwidth such that the expected L1 error is within a constant factor of the optimal L1 error (obtained when one is allowed to choose the bandwidth with knowledge of the density). In this paper, we pose the same problem for variable bandwidth kernel estimates where the bandwidths are allowed to depend upon the location. We show in particular that for positive kernels on the real line, for any data-based bandwidth, there exists a densityfor which the ratio of expected L1 error over optimal L1 error tends to infinity. Thus, the problem of tuning the variable bandwidth in an optimal manner is ``too hard''. Moreover, from the class of counterexamples exhibited in the paper, it appears thatplacing conditions on the densities (monotonicity, convexity, smoothness) does not help.

Mechanical properties of cultured human airway smooth muscle cells from 0.05 to 0.4 Hz.

We investigated the rheological properties of living human airway smooth muscle cells in culture and monitored the changes in rheological properties induced by exogenous stimuli. We oscillated small magnetic microbeads bound specifically to integrin receptors and computed the storage modulus (G') and loss modulus (G") from the applied torque and the resulting rotational motion of the beads as determined from their remanent magnetic field. Under baseline conditions, G' increased weakly with frequency, whereas G" was independent of the frequency. The cell was predominantly elastic, with the ratio of G" to G' (defined as eta) being ~0.35 at all frequencies. G' and G" increased together after contractile activation and decreased together after deactivation, whereas eta remained unaltered in each case. Thus elastic and dissipative stresses were coupled during changes in contractile activation. G' and G" decreased with disruption of the actin fibers by cytochalasin D, but eta increased. These results imply that the mechanisms for frictional energy loss and elastic energy storage in the living cell are coupled and reside within the cytoskeleton.

A Laboratory Investigation into the Effects of the Aggregated Related Facts of Critical VMA in Asphalt Paving Mixtures, June 2000

This report summarizes research conducted at Iowa State University on behalf of the Iowa Department of Transportation, focusing on the volumetric state of hot-mix asphalt (HMA) mixtures as they transition from stable to unstable configurations. This has raditionally been addressed during mix design by meeting a minimum voids in the mineral aggregate (VMA) requirement, based solely upon the nominal maximum aggregate size without regard to other significant aggregate-related properties. The goal was to expand the current specification to include additional aggregate properties, e.g., fineness modulus, percent crushed fine and coarse aggregate, and their interactions. The work was accomplished in three phases: a literature review, extensive laboratory testing, and statistical analysis of test results. The literature review focused on the history and development of the current specification, laboratory methods of identifying critical mixtures, and the effects of other aggregate-related factors on critical mixtures. The laboratory testing involved three maximum aggregate sizes (19.0, 12.5, and 9.5 millimeters), three gradations (coarse, fine, and dense), and combinations of natural and manufactured coarse and fine aggregates. Specimens were compacted using the Superpave Gyratory Compactor (SGC), conventionally tested for bulk and maximum theoretical specific gravities and physically tested using the Nottingham Asphalt Tester (NAT) under a repeated load confined configuration to identify the transition state from sound to unsound. The statistical analysis involved using ANOVA and linear regression to examine the effects of identified aggregate factors on critical state transitions in asphalt paving mixtures and to develop predictive equations. The results clearly demonstrate that the volumetric conditions of an HMA mixture at the stable unstable threshold are influenced by a composite measure of the maximum aggregate size and gradation and by aggregate shape and texture. The currently defined VMA criterion, while significant, is seen to be insufficient by itself to correctly differentiate sound from unsound mixtures. Under current specifications, many otherwise sound mixtures are subject to rejection solely on the basis of failing to meet the VMA requirement. Based on the laboratory data and statistical analysis, a new paradigm to volumetric mix design is proposed that explicitly accounts for aggregate factors (gradation, shape, and texture).

Frequency-dependent attenuation as a potential indicator of oil saturation

At seismic frequencies, wave-induced fluid flow is a major cause of P-wave attenuation in partially saturated porous rocks. Attenuation is of great importance for the oil industry in the interpretation of seismic field data. Here, the effects on P-wave attenuation resulting from changes in oil saturation are studied for media with coexisting water, oil, and gas. For that, creep experiments are numerically simulated by solving Biot's equations for consolidation of poroelastic media with the finite-element method. The experiments yield time-dependent stress?strain relations that are used to calculate the complex P-wave modulus from which frequency-dependent P-wave attenuation is determined. The models are layered media with periodically alternating triplets of layers. Models consisting of triplets of layers having randomly varying layer thicknesses are also considered. The layers in each triplet are fully saturated with water, oil, and gas. The layer saturated with water has lower porosity and permeability than the layers saturated with oil and gas. These models represent hydrocarbon reservoirs in which water is the wetting fluid preferentially saturating regions of lower porosity. The results from the numerical experiments showed that increasing oil saturation, connected to a decrease in gas saturation, resulted in a significant increase of attenuation at low frequencies (lower than 2 Hz). Furthermore, replacing the oil with water resulted in a distinguishable behavior of the frequency-dependent attenuation. These results imply that, according to the physical mechanism of wave-induced fluid flow, frequency-dependent attenuation in media saturated with water, oil, and gas is a potential indicator of oil saturation.

Electronic structure and properties of Cu2O

The structural and electronic properties of Cu2O have been investigated using the periodic Hartree-Fock method and a posteriori density-functional corrections. The lattice parameter, bulk modulus, and elastic constants have been calculated. The electronic structure of and bonding in Cu2O are analyzed and compared with x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy spectra, showing a good agreement for the valence-band states. To check the quality of the calculated electron density, static structure factors and Compton profiles have been calculated, showing a good agreement with the available experimental data. The effective electron and hole masses have been evaluated for Cu2O at the center of the Brillouin zone. The calculated interaction energy between the two interpenetrated frameworks in the cuprite structure is estimated to be around -6.0 kcal/mol per Cu2O formula. The bonding between the two independent frameworks has been analyzed using a bimolecular model and the results indicate an important role of d10-d10 type interactions between copper atoms.

Laboratory Performance Evaluation of CIR-Emulsion and it Comparison Against CIR-Form Test Result from Phase II, Final Report TR-578 Phase III, December 2009

Currently, no standard mix design procedure is available for CIR-emulsion in Iowa. The CIR-foam mix design process developed during the previous phase is applied for CIR-emulsion mixtures with varying emulsified asphalt contents. Dynamic modulus test, dynamic creep test, static creep test and raveling test were conducted to evaluate the short- and long-term performance of CIR-emulsion mixtures at various testing temperatures and loading conditions. A potential benefit of this research is a better understanding of CIR-emulsion material properties in comparison with those of CIR-foam material that would allow for the selection of the most appropriate CIR technology and the type and amount of the optimum stabilization material. Dynamic modulus, flow number and flow time of CIR-emulsion mixtures using CSS-h were generally higher than those of HFMS-2p. Flow number and flow time of CIR-emulsion using RAP materials from Story County was higher than those from Clayton County. Flow number and flow time of CIR-emulsion with 0.5% emulsified asphalt was higher than CIR-emulsion with 1.0% or 1.5%. Raveling loss of CIR-emulsion with 1.5% emulsified was significantly less than those with 0.5% and 1.0%. Test results in terms of dynamic modulus, flow number, flow time and raveling loss of CIR-foam mixtures are generally better than those of CIR-emulsion mixtures. Given the limited RAP sources used for this study, it is recommended that the CIR-emulsion mix design procedure should be validated against several RAP sources and emulsion types.

Investigation of Warm-Mix Asphalt Using Iowa Aggregates Final Report, April 2011

The implementation of warm-mix asphalt (WMA) is becoming more widespread with a growing number of contractors utilizing various WMA technologies. Early research suggests WMA may be more susceptible to moisture damage than traditional hot-mix asphalt (HMA) mixes. The objectives of this study are to test the binder and mix properties of WMA technologies for both field- and laboratory-produced mixes to determine the performance of WMA compared to traditional HMA. Field- and laboratory-produced mixes were studied. The laboratory-produced mixes compared HMA control mixes with WMA mixes that had the same mix design. The WMA technologies used for the laboratory study were Advera, Sasobit, and Evotherm. The field study tested four WMA field-produced mixes. Each of the four mixes had a corresponding control HMA mix. The WMA technologies used in the field study included: Evotherm 3G/Revix, Sasobit, and Double Barrel Green Foaming. The three main factors for this study were WMA/HMA, moisture-conditioned/not moisture-conditioned, and reheated/not reheated. Mixes were evaluated based on performance tests. Binder testing was performed to determine the rheological differences between HMA and WMA binders to determine if binder grade requirements change with the addition of WMA additives. The conclusions of this study are as follows:  Reduced mixing and compaction temperatures were achieved.  Statistical differences were found when comparing tensile strength ratio (TSR) values for both laboratory- and field-produced mixes. In the laboratory, none of the WMA additives performed as well as the HMA. For the field mixes, all TSR values passed Iowa’s minimum specification of 0.8 but, on average, WMA is lower compared to HMA TSR values.  Dynamic modulus results show that, on average, HMA will have higher dynamic modulus values. This means the HMA exhibits stiffer material properties compared to WMA; this may not necessarily mean superior performance in all cases.  Flow number results show that WMA has reduced flow number values compared to HMA. The only exception was the fourth field mix and weather delayed production of the control mix by nine days. The laboratory mixes showed that flow number values increased significantly with the addition of recycled asphalt pavement (RAP).  In the laboratory study, Advera reduced TSR values. Given that Advera is a foaming agent, the increase in moisture susceptibility is likely attributed to the release of water necessary for the improvement of the workability of the asphalt mixture.

Nanomechanical properties of molecular organic thin films

Using atomic force microscopy we have studied the nanomechanical response to nanoindentations of surfaces of highly oriented molecular organic thin films (thickness¿1000¿nm). The Young¿s modulus E can be estimated from the elastic deformation using Hertzian mechanics. For the quasi-one-dimensional metal tetrathiafulvalene tetracyanoquinodimethane E~20¿GPa and for the ¿ phase of the p-nitrophenyl nitronyl nitroxide radical E~2GPa. Above a few GPa, the surfaces deform plastically as evidenced by discrete discontinuities in the indentation curves associated to molecular layers being expelled by the penetrating tip.

Electronic structure and properties of AlN

The electronic structure of the wurtzite-type phase of aluminum nitride has been investigated by means of periodic ab initio Hartree-Fock calculations. The binding energy, lattice parameters (a,c), and the internal coordinate (u) have been calculated. All structural parameters are in excellent agreement with the experimental data. The electronic structure and bonding in AlN are analyzed by means of density-of-states projections and electron-density maps. The calculated values of the bulk modulus, its pressure derivative, the optical-phonon frequencies at the center of the Brillouin zone, and the full set of elastic constants are in good agreement with the experimental data.