A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Finite element modelling of three-dimensional convection problems in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below

We use the finite element method to model three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media when they are heated from below. In particular, we employ the particle-tracking technique to mimic the trajectories of particles in three-dimensional fluid flow problems. The related numerical results demonstrated that: (1) The progressive asymptotic approach procedure, which was previously developed for the finite element modelling of two-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow problems, is equally applicable to the finite element modelling of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below. (2) The perturbation of gravity at different planes has a significant effect on the pattern of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow and therefore, may influence the pattern of orebody formation and mineralization in three-dimensional hydrothermal systems. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A multi-sectorial committee in directing HIV/AIDS-specific interventions in the occupational setting: An example from South Africa

We present a descriptive analysis of a mechanism to coordinate and implement human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention and care in the occupational setting. The mechanism we describe is a multidisciplinary committee composed of stakeholders in the occupational health environment including unions, management, medical researchers, and medical personnel. The site chosen for the analysis was a South African sugar mill in rural KwaZulu-Natal. The factory is situated in an area of high HIV seroprevalence and has a workforce of 400 employees. The committee was initiated to coordinate a combined prevention-care initiative. The issues that were important in the formation of the committee included confidentiality, trust, and the traditional roles of the stakeholder relationships. When these points were addressed through the focus on a common goal, the committee was able to function in its role as a coordinating body. Central to this success was the inclusion of all stakeholders in the process, including those with traditionally opposing, interests and legitimacy conferred by the stakeholders. This committee was functionally effective and demonstrated the benefit of a freestanding committee dedicated to addressing HIV/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) issues. We describe the implementation and feasibility of a multisectoral committee in directing HIV/AIDS initiatives in the occupational setting in rural South Africa.

Promoting physical activity among middle-aged and older adults in health care settings

Physical inactivity continues to be a significant public health issue for middle-aged and older adults. This review focuses on physical activity interventions targeting older adults in health care settings. The literature in this area is limited and the results to date disappointing. Much remains to be done to develop effective interventions targeting older adults, especially those from underserved groups. Attention also needs to be paid to maintenance of initial treatment gains and to linking primary-care-based physical activity interventions to community-based resources. Recognition in the social and behavioral sciences of the importance of social-environmental influences on health and health behaviors mandates both a multidisciplinary and a multilevel intervention approach to the problem of physical inactivity.

Characteristics of DSM-IV and ICD-10 cannabis dependence among Australian adults: results from the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing

A representative sample (n = 10 641) of Australian adults completed a structured diagnostic interview assessing the prevalence of mental and substance use disorders in the last year. The prevalence of DSM-IV (1.5%) and ICD-10 (1.7%) cannabis dependence was similar. DSM-IV and ICD-10 dependence criteria comprised unidimensional syndromes. The most common symptoms among dependent and non-dependent users were difficulties with controlling use and withdrawal, although there were marked differences in symptom prevalence. Dependent users reported a median of four symptoms. There was good to excellent diagnostic concordance (kappas = 0.7-0.9) between systems for dependence but not for abuse/harmful use (Y = 0.4). These findings provide some support for the validity of cannabis dependence. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Race and sex effects on the association between muscle strength, soft tissue, and bone mineral density in healthy elders: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Two factors generally reported to influence bone density are body composition and muscle strength. However, it is unclear if these relationships are consistent across race and sex, especially in older persons. If differences do exist by race and/or sex, then strategies to maintain bone mass or minimize bone loss in older adults may need to be modified accordingly. Therefore, we examined the independent effects of bone mineral-free lean mass (LM), fat mass (FM), and muscle strength on regional and whole body bone mineral density (BMD) in a cohort of 2619 well-functioning older adults participating in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study with complete measures. Participants included 738 white women, 599 black women, 827 white men, and 455 black men aged 70-79 years. BMD (g/cm(2)) of the femoral neck, whole body, upper and lower limb, and whole body and upper limb bone mineral-free LM and FM was assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Handgrip strength and knee extensor torque were determined by dynamometry. In analyses stratified by race and sex and adjusted for a number of confounders, LM was a significant (p < 0.001) determinant of BMD, except in white women for the lower limb and whole body. In women, FM also was an independent contributor to BMD at the femoral neck, and both PM and muscle strength contributed to limb BMD. The following were the respective Beta-weights (regression coefficients for standardized data, Std beta) and percent difference in BMD per unit (7.5 kg) LM: femoral neck, 0.202-0.386 and 4.7-6.9 %; lower limb,.0.209-0.357 and 2.9-3.5%; whole body, 0.239-0.484 and 3.0-4.7 %; and upper limb (unit = 0.5 kg), 0.231-0.407 and 3.1-3.4%. Adjusting for bone size (bone mineral apparent density [BMAD]) or body size BMD/height) diminished the importance of LM, and the contributory effect of FM became more pronounced. These results indicate that LM and FM were associated with bone mineral depending on the bone site and bone index used. Where differences did occur, they were primarily by sex not race. To preserve BMD, maintaining or increasing LM in the elderly would appear to be an appropriate strategy, regardless of race or sex.

Effect of removing user fees on attendance for curative and preventive primary health care services in rural South Africa

User fees are used to recover costs and discourage unnecessary attendance at primary care clinics in many developing countries. In South Africa, user fees for children aged under 6 yea rs and pregnant women were removed in 1994, and in 1997 all user fees at all primary health care clinics were abolished. The intention of these policy changes was to improve access to health services for previously disadvantaged communities. We investigated the impact of these changes on clinic attendance patterns in Hlabisa health district. Average quarterly new registrations and total attendances for preventive services (antenatal care, immunization, growth monitoring) and curative services (treatment of ailments) at a mobile primary health care unit were studied from 1992 to 1998. Regression analysis was undertaken to assess whether trends were statistically significant. There was a sustained increase in new registrations (P = 0.0001) and total attendances (P = 0.0001)for curative services, and a fall in new registrations (P = 0.01) and total attendances for immunization and growth monitoring (P = 0.0002) over the study period. The upturn in demand for curative services started at the time of the first policy change. The decreases in antenatal registrations (P = 0.07) and attendances (P = 0.09) were not statistically significant The number of new registrations for immunization and growth monitoring increased following the first policy change but declined thereafter. We found no evidence that the second policy change influenced underlying trends. The removal of user fees improved access to curative services but this may have happened at the expense of some preventive services. Governments should remain vigilant about the effects of new health policies in order to ensure that objectives are being met.

Modelling life history strategies with capture-recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture-recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long-lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high-quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.

Disaggregation of polygons of surficial geology and soil maps using spatial modelling and legacy data

Examples from the Murray-Darling basin in Australia are used to illustrate different methods of disaggregation of reconnaissance-scale maps. One approach for disaggregation revolves around the de-convolution of the soil-landscape paradigm elaborated during a soil survey. The descriptions of soil ma units and block diagrams in a soil survey report detail soil-landscape relationships or soil toposequences that can be used to disaggregate map units into component landscape elements. Toposequences can be visualised on a computer by combining soil maps with digital elevation data. Expert knowledge or statistics can be used to implement the disaggregation. Use of a restructuring element and k-means clustering are illustrated. Another approach to disaggregation uses training areas to develop rules to extrapolate detailed mapping into other, larger areas where detailed mapping is unavailable. A two-level decision tree example is presented. At one level, the decision tree method is used to capture mapping rules from the training area; at another level, it is used to define the domain over which those rules can be extrapolated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

Post-traumatic stress disorder: Findings from the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being

Background. We report on the epidemiology of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the Australian community, including information on lifetime exposure to trauma, 12-month prevalence of PTSD, sociodemographic correlates and co-morbidity. Methods. Data were obtained from a stratified sample of 10641 participants as part of the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being. A modified version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to determine the presence of PTSD, as well as other DSM-IV anxiety, affective and substance use disorders. Results. The estimated 12-month prevalence of PTSD was 1.33%, which is considerably lower than that found in comparable North American studies. Although females were at greater risk than males within the subsample of those who had experienced trauma, the large gender differences noted in some recent epidemiological research were not replicated. Prevalence was elevated among the never married and previously married respondents, and was lower among those aged over 55. For both men and women, rape and sexual molestation were the traumatic events most likely to be associated with PTSD. A high level of Axis I co-morbidity was found among those persons with PTSD Conclusions. PTSD is a highly prevalent disorder in the Australian community and is routinely associated with high rates of anxiety, depression and substance disorders. Future research is needed to investigate rates among other populations outside the North American continent.