The dynamics of the Swiss electricity market : three essays

Executive Summary Electricity is crucial for modern societies, thus it is important to understand the behaviour of electricity markets in order to be prepared to face the consequences of policy changes. The Swiss electricity market is now in a transition stage from a public monopoly to a liberalised market and it is undergoing an "emergent" liberalisation - i.e. liberalisation taking place without proper regulation. The withdrawal of nuclear capacity is also being debated. These two possible changes directly affect the mechanisms for capacity expansion. Thus, in this thesis we concentrate on understanding the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market. A conceptual model to help understand the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market is developed an explained in the first essay. We identify a potential risk of imports dependence. In the second essay a System Dynamics model, based on the conceptual model, is developed to evaluate the consequences of three scenarios: a nuclear phase-out, the implementation of a policy for avoiding imports dependence, and the combination of both. We conclude that the Swiss market is not well prepared to face unexpected changes of supply and demand, and we identify a risk of imports dependence, mainly in the case of a nuclear phase-out. The third essay focus on the opportunity cost of hydro-storage power generation, one of the main generation sources in Switzerland. We use and extended version of our model to test different policies for assigning an opportunity cost to hydro-storage power generation. We conclude that the preferred policies are different for different market participants and depend on market structure.

Financing Constraints, Irreversibility, and Investment Dynamics

We develop a model of an industry with many heterogeneous firms that face both financing constraints and irreversibility constraints. The financing constraint implies that firms cannot borrow unless the debt is secured by collateral; the irreversibility constraint that they can only sell their fixed capital by selling their business. We use this model to examine the cyclical behavior of aggregate fixed investment, variable capital investment, and output in the presence of persistent idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Our model yields three main results. First, the effect of the irreversibility constraint on fixed capital investment is reinforced by the financing constraint. Second, the effect of the financing constraint on variable capital investment is reinforced by the irreversibility constraint. Finally, the interaction between the two constraints is key for explaining why input inventories and material deliveries of US manufacturing firms are so volatile and procyclical, and also why they are highly asymmetrical over the business cycle.

Cumulative cultural dynamics and the coevolution of cultural innovation and transmission: an ESS model for panmictic and structured populations.

When individuals in a population can acquire traits through learning, each individual may express a certain number of distinct cultural traits. These traits may have been either invented by the individual himself or acquired from others in the population. Here, we develop a game theoretic model for the accumulation of cultural traits through individual and social learning. We explore how the rates of innovation, decay, and transmission of cultural traits affect the evolutionary stable (ES) levels of individual and social learning and the number of cultural traits expressed by an individual when cultural dynamics are at a steady-state. We explore the evolution of these phenotypes in both panmictic and structured population settings. Our results suggest that in panmictic populations, the ES level of learning and number of traits tend to be independent of the social transmission rate of cultural traits and is mainly affected by the innovation and decay rates. By contrast, in structured populations, where interactions occur between relatives, the ES level of learning and the number of traits per individual can be increased (relative to the panmictic case) and may then markedly depend on the transmission rate of cultural traits. This suggests that kin selection may be one additional solution to Rogers's paradox of nonadaptive culture.

Financial Crises and International Portfolio Dynamics

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents, especially during financial crises. We show that gross capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. This is because when foreigners invest in a country domestic agents tend to invest abroad and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners tend to bring in more capital and domestic agents tend to invest more abroad. During crises, there is retrenchment, i.e. a reduction in capital inflows by foreigners and an increase in capital inflows by domestic agents. This is especially true during severe crises and during systemic crises. The evidence can shed light on the nature of shocks driving international capital flows. It seems to favor shocks that affect foreigners and domestic agents asymmetrically -e.g. sovereign risk and asymmetric information- over productivity shocks.

Asymmetric and differential gene introgression at a contact zone between two highly divergent lineages of field voles (Microtus agrestis).

Secondary contact zones have the potential to shed light on the mode and rate at which reproductive isolation accumulates during allopatric speciation. We investigated the population genetics of a contact zone between two highly divergent lineages of field voles (Microtus agrestis) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To shed light on the processes underlying introgression, we used maternally, paternally, and bi-parentally inherited markers. Though the two lineages maintained a strong genetic structure, we found some hybrids and evidence of gene flow. The extent of introgression varied with the mode of inheritance, being highest for mtDNA and absent for the Y chromosome. In addition, introgression was asymmetric, occurring only from the Northern to the Southern lineage. Both patterns seem parsimoniously explained by neutral processes linked to differences in effective sizes and sex-biased dispersal rates. The lineage with lower effective population size was also the more introgressed, and the mode-of-inheritance effect correlated with the male-biased dispersal rate of microtine rodents. We cannot exclude, however, that Haldane's effect contributed to the latter, as we found a marginally significant deficit in males (the heterogametic sex) among hybrids. We propose a possible demographic scenario to account for the patterns documented, and empirical extensions to further investigate this contact zone.

Evaporation from a shallow water table: Diurnal dynamics of measured and simulated water and heat regime at the vicinity of a drying sand surface

Accurate estimates of water losses by evaporation from shallow water tables are important for hydrological, agricultural, and climatic purposes. An experiment was conducted in a weighing lysimeter to characterize the diurnal dynamics of evaporation under natural conditions. Sampling revealed a completely dry surface sand layer after 5 days of evaporation. Its thickness was <1 cm early in the morning, increasing to reach 4?5 cm in the evening. This evidence points out fundamental limitations of the approaches that assume hydraulic connectivity from the water table up to the surface, as well as those that suppose monotonic drying when unsteady conditions prevail. The computed vapor phase diffusion rates from the apparent drying front based on Fick's law failed to reproduce the measured cumulative evaporation during the sampling day. We propose that two processes rule natural evaporation resulting from daily fluctuations of climatic variables: (i) evaporation of water, stored during nighttime due to redistribution and vapor condensation, directly into the atmosphere from the soil surface during the early morning hours, that could be simulated using a mass transfer approach and (ii) subsurface evaporation limited by Fickian diffusion, afterward. For the conditions prevailing during the sampling day, the amount of water stored at the vicinity of the soil surface was 0.3 mm and was depleted before 11:00. Combining evaporation from the surface before 11:00 and subsurface evaporation limited by Fickian diffusion after that time, the agreement between the estimated and measured cumulative evaporation was significantly improved.

Computational fluid dynamics of the right ventricular outflow tract and of the pulmonary artery: a bench model of flow dynamics.

OBJECTIVES: The reconstruction of the right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) with valved conduits remains a challenge. The reoperation rate at 5 years can be as high as 25% and depends on age, type of conduit, conduit diameter and principal heart malformation. The aim of this study is to provide a bench model with computer fluid dynamics to analyse the haemodynamics of the RVOT, pulmonary artery, its bifurcation, and left and right pulmonary arteries that in the future may serve as a tool for analysis and prediction of outcome following RVOT reconstruction. METHODS: Pressure, flow and diameter at the RVOT, pulmonary artery, bifurcation of the pulmonary artery, and left and right pulmonary arteries were measured in five normal pigs with a mean weight of 24.6 ± 0.89 kg. Data obtained were used for a 3D computer fluid-dynamics simulation of flow conditions, focusing on the pressure, flow and shear stress profile of the pulmonary trunk to the level of the left and right pulmonary arteries. RESULTS: Three inlet steady flow profiles were obtained at 0.2, 0.29 and 0.36 m/s that correspond to the flow rates of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 l/min flow at the RVOT. The flow velocity profile was constant at the RVOT down to the bifurcation and decreased at the left and right pulmonary arteries. In all three inlet velocity profiles, low sheer stress and low-velocity areas were detected along the left wall of the pulmonary artery, at the pulmonary artery bifurcation and at the ostia of both pulmonary arteries. CONCLUSIONS: This computed fluid real-time model provides us with a realistic picture of fluid dynamics in the pulmonary tract area. Deep shear stress areas correspond to a turbulent flow profile that is a predictive factor for the development of vessel wall arteriosclerosis. We believe that this bench model may be a useful tool for further evaluation of RVOT pathology following surgical reconstructions.

Multilayered genetic and omics dissection of mitochondrial activity in a mouse reference population

The manner by which genotype and environment affect complex phenotypes is one of the fundamental questions in biology. In this study, we quantified the transcriptome--a subset of the metabolome--and, using targeted proteomics, quantified a subset of the liver proteome from 40 strains of the BXD mouse genetic reference population on two diverse diets. We discovered dozens of transcript, protein, and metabolite QTLs, several of which linked to metabolic phenotypes. Most prominently, Dhtkd1 was identified as a primary regulator of 2-aminoadipate, explaining variance in fasted glucose and diabetes status in both mice and humans. These integrated molecular profiles also allowed further characterization of complex pathways, particularly the mitochondrial unfolded protein response (UPR(mt)). UPR(mt) shows strikingly variant responses at the transcript and protein level that are remarkably conserved among C. elegans, mice, and humans. Overall, these examples demonstrate the value of an integrated multilayered omics approach to characterize complex metabolic phenotypes.

Family dynamics in face of Alzheimer's in one of its members

Abstract OBJECTIVE To understand the family dynamics when there is a member in the residence with Alzheimer's disease. METHOD A study of qualitative approach, using the creative sensitive method (CSM), and with participation of two families who had a member with Alzheimer's disease at home. RESULTS Three categories emerged: Effects of Alzheimer's disease and the family dynamics; Development process of Alzheimer's disease and Coping strategies in face of the disease. CONCLUSION It was possible to know the manifestations and consequences of Alzheimer's disease in the family, such as mutual help, the mobilization of resources to activate memories of the past, spirituality and faith. There was also understanding of the structure of family dynamics.

Social dynamics of Water Quality, 2004

Water fact sheet for Iowa Department of Natural Resources and the Geological Bureau.

The dynamics of US inflation: Can monetary policy explain the changes?

We investigate the relationship between monetary policy and inflation dynamics in theUS using a medium scale structural model. The specification is estimated with Bayesiantechniques and fits the data reasonably well. Policy shocks account for a part of the declinein inflation volatility; they have been less effective in triggering inflation responses overtime and qualitatively account for the rise and fall in the level of inflation. A number ofstructural parameter variations contribute to these patterns.

First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary PolicyCommittee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasingconfidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal theirhawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns orpleasing colleagues. There is also no evidence of capture by industry. The papersuggests that policy-motivated reputation building may be important for explainingdynamics in experts' policy choices.

The biogeography of mitochondrial and nuclear discordance in animals.

Combining nuclear (nuDNA) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers has improved the power of molecular data to test phylogenetic and phylogeographic hypotheses and has highlighted the limitations of studies using only mtDNA markers. In fact, in the past decade, many conflicting geographic patterns between mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers have been identified (i.e. mito-nuclear discordance). Our goals in this synthesis are to: (i) review known cases of mito-nuclear discordance in animal systems, (ii) to summarize the biogeographic patterns in each instance and (iii) to identify common drivers of discordance in various groups. In total, we identified 126 cases in animal systems with strong evidence of discordance between the biogeographic patterns obtained from mitochondrial DNA and those observed in the nuclear genome. In most cases, these patterns are attributed to adaptive introgression of mtDNA, demographic disparities and sex-biased asymmetries, with some studies also implicating hybrid zone movement, human introductions and Wolbachia infection in insects. We also discuss situations where divergent mtDNA clades seem to have arisen in the absence of geographic isolation. For those cases where foreign mtDNA haplotypes are found deep within the range of a second taxon, data suggest that those mtDNA haplotypes are more likely to be at a high frequency and are commonly driven by sex-biased asymmetries and/or adaptive introgression. In addition, we discuss the problems with inferring the processes causing discordance from biogeographic patterns that are common in many studies. In many cases, authors presented more than one explanation for discordant patterns in a given system, which indicates that likely more data are required. Ideally, to resolve this issue, we see important future work shifting focus from documenting the prevalence of mito-nuclear discordance towards testing hypotheses regarding the drivers of discordance. Indeed, there is great potential for certain cases of mitochondrial introgression to become important natural systems within which to test the effect of different mitochondrial genotypes on whole-animal phenotypes.