The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

The international regulation of persons displaced by climate change

It is certain that there will be changes in environmental conditions across the globe as a result of climate change. Such changes will require the building of biological, human and infrastructure resilience. In some instances, the building of such resilience will be insufficient to deal with extreme changes in environmental conditions and legal frameworks will be required to provide recognition and support for people relocating as a result of environmental change. International legal frameworks do not currently recognise or assist people displaced as a result of environmental factors. The objective of this chapter is to examine the areas of international law relevant to displacement arising from environmental factors, consider some of the proposed climate displacement instruments and suggest the most suitable international institution to host a program addressing climate displacement. In order to determine the most appropriate institution to address and regulate climate displacement, it is imperative to consider issues of governance. This paper seeks to examine this issue and determine whether it is preferable to place climate displacement programs into existing international legal frameworks, or whether it is necessary to regulate this area in an entirely new institution specifically designed to deal with the complex and cross-cutting issues surrounding the topic...

Methodology for measuring the vertical displacements of bridges using fibre bragg grating sensors

In many bridges, vertical displacements are one of the most relevant parameters for structural health monitoring in both the short- and long-terms. Bridge managers around the globe are always looking for a simple way to measure vertical displacements of bridges. However, it is difficult to carry out such measurements. On the other hand, in recent years, with the advancement of fibre-optic technologies, fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensors are more commonly used in structural health monitoring due to their outstanding advantages including multiplexing capability, immunity of electromagnetic interference as well as high resolution and accuracy. For these reasons, a methodology for measuring the vertical displacements of bridges using FBG sensors is proposed. The methodology includes two approaches. One of which is based on curvature measurements while the other utilises inclination measurements from successfully developed FBG tilt sensors. A series of simulation tests of a full-scale bridge was conducted. It shows that both approaches can be implemented to measure the vertical displacements for bridges with various support conditions, varying stiffness along the spans and without any prior known loading. A static loading beam test with increasing loads at the mid-span and a beam test with different loading locations were conducted to measure vertical displacements using FBG strain sensors and tilt sensors. The results show that the approaches can successfully measure vertical displacements.

Citizenship, community, public space and the marginalisation of children and young people

Throughout Australia (and in comparable urban contexts around the world) public spaces may be said to be under attack by developers and also attempts by civic authorities to regulate, restrict, rebrand and reframe them. A consequence of the increasingly security driven, privatised and surveilled nature of public space is the exclusion and displacement of those considered flawed and unwelcome in the ‘spectacular’ consumption spaces of many major urban centres. In the name of urban regeneration, processes of securitisation, ‘gentrification’ and creative cities discourses can refashion public space as sites of selective inclusion and exclusion. In this context of monitoring and control procedures, children and young people’s use of space in parks, neighbourhoods, shopping malls and streets is often viewed as a threat to the social order, requiring various forms of punitive and/or remedial action. This paper discusses developments in the surveillance, governance and control of public space used by children and young people in particular and the capacity for their displacement and marginality, diminishing their sense of place and belonging, and right to public space as an expression of their civil, political and social citizenship(s).

Predicting invasion in grassland ecosystems: is exotic dominance the real embarrassment of richness?

Invasions have increased the size of regional species pools, but are typically assumed to reduce native diversity. However, global-scale tests of this assumption have been elusive because of the focus on exotic species richness, rather than relative abundance. This is problematic because low invader richness can indicate invasion resistance by the native community or, alternatively, dominance by a single exotic species. Here, we used a globally replicated study to quantify relationships between exotic richness and abundance in grass-dominated ecosystems in 13 countries on six continents, ranging from salt marshes to alpine tundra. We tested effects of human land use, native community diversity, herbivore pressure, and nutrient limitation on exotic plant dominance. Despite its widespread use, exotic richness was a poor proxy for exotic dominance at low exotic richness, because sites that contained few exotic species ranged from relatively pristine (low exotic richness and cover) to almost completely exotic-dominated ones (low exotic richness but high exotic cover). Both exotic cover and richness were predicted by native plant diversity (native grass richness) and land use (distance to cultivation). Although climate was important for predicting both exotic cover and richness, climatic factors predicting cover (precipitation variability) differed from those predicting richness (maximum temperature and mean temperature in the wettest quarter). Herbivory and nutrient limitation did not predict exotic richness or cover. Exotic dominance was greatest in areas with low native grass richness at the site- or regional-scale. Although this could reflect native grass displacement, a lack of biotic resistance is a more likely explanation, given that grasses comprise the most aggressive invaders. These findings underscore the need to move beyond richness as a surrogate for the extent of invasion, because this metric confounds monodominance with invasion resistance. Monitoring species' relative abundance will more rapidly advance our understanding of invasions.

Spreading peak demand for urban rail transit through differential fare policy : a review of empirical evidence

More evenly spread demand for public transport throughout a day can reduce transit service provider‟s total asset and labour costs. A plausible peak spreading strategy is to increase peak fare and/or to reduce off-peak fare. This paper reviews relevant empirical studies for urban rail systems, as rail transit plays a key role in Australian urban passenger transport and experiences severe peak loading variability. The literature is categorised into four groups: a) passenger opinions on willingness to change time for travel, b) valuations of displacement time using stated preference technique, c) simulations of peak spreading based on trip scheduling models, and: d) real-world cases of peak spreading using differential fare. Policy prescription is advised to take into account impacts of traveller‟s time flexibility and joint effects of mode shifting and peak spreading. Although focusing on urban rail, arguments in this paper are relevant to public transport in general with values to researchers and practitioners.

Computer-assisted measurements of coronal knee joint laxity in vitro are related to low-stress behavior rather than structural properties of the collateral ligaments

The relationship between coronal knee laxity and the restraining properties of the collateral ligaments remains unknown. This study investigated correlations between the structural properties of the collateral ligaments and stress angles used in computer-assisted total knee arthroplasty (TKA), measured with an optically based navigation system. Ten fresh-frozen cadaveric knees (mean age: 81 ± 11 years) were dissected to leave the menisci, cruciate ligaments, posterior joint capsule and collateral ligaments. The resected femur and tibia were rigidly secured within a test system which permitted kinematic registration of the knee using a commercially available image-free navigation system. Frontal plane knee alignment and varus-valgus stress angles were acquired. The force applied during varus-valgus testing was quantified. Medial and lateral bone-collateral ligament-bone specimens were then prepared, mounted within a uni-axial materials testing machine, and extended to failure. Force and displacement data were used to calculate the principal structural properties of the ligaments. The mean varus laxity was 4 ± 1° and the mean valgus laxity was 4 ± 2°. The corresponding mean manual force applied was 10 ± 3 N and 11 ± 4 N, respectively. While measures of knee laxity were independent of the ultimate tensile strength and stiffness of the collateral ligaments, there was a significant correlation between the force applied during stress testing and the instantaneous stiffness of the medial (r = 0.91, p = 0.001) and lateral (r = 0.68, p = 0.04) collateral ligaments. These findings suggest that clinicians may perceive a rate of change of ligament stiffness as the end-point during assessment of collateral knee laxity.

The acute effects of eccentrically-biased versus conventional weight training in older adults : a randomised controlled cross-over study

Background Whilst resistance training has been proven to convey considerable benefits to older people; immediately post-exercise there may be elevated transient risks for cardiac events and falls. Objectives and Measurements We assessed the acute effects of eccentrically-biased (EB) and conventional (CONV) resistance exercise on: platelet number, activation and granule exocytsosis; and mean velocity of centre of pressure displacement (Vm). Design, Setting, Participants and Intervention Ten older adults (7 males, 3 females; 69 ± 4 years) participated in this randomised controlled cross-over study in which they performed EB and CONV training sessions that were matched for total work and a control condition. Results Immediately post-exercise there was a statistically significant difference in platelet count between the control condition, in which it fell (pre 224 ± 35 109/L; post 211 ± 30 109/L: P < 0.05) and CONV in which it increased (pre 236 ± 55 109/L; post 242 ± 51 109/L: P > 0.05). There was no change in platelet activation and granule exocytsosis or Vm following EB and CONV. Conclusions Overall, while minor differences between regimens were observed, no major adverse effect on parameters of platelet function or centre of pressure displacement were observed acutely following either regimen. Eccentrically-biased and conventional resistance exercise training regimens do not appear to present an elevated acute risk in the context of changes to platelet function contributing to a cardiac event or postural stability increasing falls risk for apparently healthy older adults.

Characterizing transport through a crowded environment with different obstacle sizes

Transport through crowded environments is often classified as anomalous, rather than classical, Fickian diffusion. Several studies have sought to describe such transport processes using either a continuous time random walk or fractional order differential equation. For both these models the transport is characterized by a parameter α, where α = 1 is associated with Fickian diffusion and α < 1 is associated with anomalous subdiffusion. Here, we simulate a single agent migrating through a crowded environment populated by impenetrable, immobile obstacles and estimate α from mean squared displacement data. We also simulate the transport of a population of such agents through a similar crowded environment and match averaged agent density profiles to the solution of a related fractional order differential equation to obtain an alternative estimate of α. We examine the relationship between our estimate of α and the properties of the obstacle field for both a single agent and a population of agents; we show that in both cases, α decreases as the obstacle density increases, and that the rate of decrease is greater for smaller obstacles. Our work suggests that it may be inappropriate to model transport through a crowded environment using widely reported approaches including power laws to describe the mean squared displacement and fractional order differential equations to represent the averaged agent density profiles.

Public Space and the Marginalisation of Children and Young People

Throughout much of the world, urban and rural public spaces may be said to be under attack by property developers, commercial interests and also attempts by civic authorities to regulate, restrict, reframe and rebrand these spaces. A consequence of the increasingly security driven, privatised, commercial and surveilled nature of public space is the exclusion and displacement of those considered ‘flawed’ and unwelcome in the ‘spectacular’ consumption spaces of many major urban centres. In the name of urban regeneration, processes of securitisation, ‘gentrification’ and creative cities initiatives can act to refashion public space as sites of selective inclusion and exclusion. The use of surveillance and other control technologies as deployed in and around the UK ‘Riots’ of 2011 may help to promote and encourage a passing sense of personal safety and confidence in using public space. Through systems of social sorting, the same surveillance assemblages can also further the physical, emotional and psychological exclusion of certain groups and individuals, deemed to be both ‘out of time and out of place’ in major zones of urban, conspicuous, consumption. In this harsh environment of monitoring and control procedures, children and young people’s use of public spaces and places in parks, neighbourhoods, shopping malls and streets is often viewed as a threat to social order, requiring various forms of punitive and/or remedial action. Much of this civic action actively excludes some children and young people from participation and as a consequence, their trust in local processes and communities is eroded. This paper discusses worldwide developments in the surveillance, governance and control of the public space environments used by children and young people in particular and the capacity for their displacement and marginality, diminishing their sense of belonging, wellbeing and rights to public space as an expression of their social, political and civil citizenship(s).

Second-order inelastic analysis of composite framed structures based on the refined plastic hinge method

Composite steel-concrete structures experience non-linear effects which arise from both instability-related geometric non-linearity and from material non-linearity in all of their component members. Because of this, conventional design procedures cannot capture the true behaviour of a composite frame throughout its full loading range, and so a procedure to account for those non-linearities is much needed. This paper therefore presents a numerical procedure capable of addressing geometric and material non-linearities at the strength limit state based on the refined plastic hinge method. Different material non-linearity for different composite structural components such as T-beams, concrete-filled tubular (CFT) and steel-encased reinforced concrete (SRC) sections can be treated using a routine numerical procedure for their section properties in this plastic hinge approach. Simple and conservative initial and full yield surfaces for general composite sections are proposed in this paper. The refined plastic hinge approach models springs at the ends of the element which are activated when the surface defining the interaction of bending and axial force at first yield is reached; a transition from the first yield interaction surface to the fully plastic interaction surface is postulated based on a proposed refined spring stiffness, which formulates the load-displacement relation for material non-linearity under the interaction of bending and axial actions. This produces a benign method for a beam-column composite element under general loading cases. Another main feature of this paper is that, for members containing a point of contraflexure, its location is determined with a simple application of the method herein and a node is then located at this position to reproduce the real flexural behaviour and associated material non-linearity of the member. Recourse is made to an updated Lagrangian formulation to consider geometric non-linear behaviour and to develop a non-linear solution strategy. The formulation with the refined plastic hinge approach is efficacious and robust, and so a full frame analysis incorporating geometric and material non-linearity is tractable. By way of contrast, the plastic zone approach possesses the drawback of strain-based procedures which rely on determining plastic zones within a cross-section and which require lengthwise integration. Following development of the theory, its application is illustrated with a number of varied examples.

A simulation-based large deflection and inelastic analysis of steel frames under fire

This paper presents an accurate and robust geometric and material nonlinear formulation to predict structural behaviour of unprotected steel members at elevated temperatures. A fire analysis including large displacement effects for frame structures is presented. This finite element formulation of beam-column elements is based on the plastic hinge approach to model the elasto-plastic strain-hardening material behaviour. The Newton-Raphson method allowing for the thermal-time dependent effect was employed for the solution of the non-linear governing equations for large deflection in thermal history. A combined incremental and total formulation for determining member resistance is employed in this nonlinear solution procedure for the efficient modeling of nonlinear effects. Degradation of material strength with increasing temperature is simulated by a set of temperature-stress-strain curves according to both ECCS and BS5950 Part 8, which implicitly allows for creep deformation. The effects of uniform or non-uniform temperature distribution over the section of the structural steel member are also considered. Several numerical and experimental verifications are presented.

Higher-order non-linear analysis of steel structures. Part I : elastic second-order formulation

This paper presents a higher-order beam-column formulation that can capture the geometrically non-linear behaviour of steel framed structures which contain a multiplicity of slender members. Despite advances in computational frame software, analyses of large frames can still be problematic from a numerical standpoint and so the intent of the paper is to fulfil a need for versatile, reliable and efficient non-linear analysis of general steel framed structures with very many members. Following a comprehensive review of numerical frame analysis techniques, a fourth-order element is derived and implemented in an updated Lagrangian formulation, and it is able to predict flexural buckling, snap-through buckling and large displacement post-buckling behaviour of typical structures whose responses have been reported by independent researchers. The solutions are shown to be efficacious in terms of a balance of accuracy and computational expediency. The higher-order element forms a basis for augmenting the geometrically non-linear approach with material non-linearity through the refined plastic hinge methodology described in the companion paper.

Second-order elastic finite element analysis of steel structures using a single element per member

Finite element frame analysis programs targeted for design office application necessitate algorithms which can deliver reliable numerical convergence in a practical timeframe with comparable degrees of accuracy, and a highly desirable attribute is the use of a single element per member to reduce computational storage, as well as data preparation and the interpretation of the results. To this end, a higher-order finite element method including geometric non-linearity is addressed in the paper for the analysis of elastic frames for which a single element is used to model each member. The geometric non-linearity in the structure is handled using an updated Lagrangian formulation, which takes the effects of the large translations and rotations that occur at the joints into consideration by accumulating their nodal coordinates. Rigid body movements are eliminated from the local member load-displacement relationship for which the total secant stiffness is formulated for evaluating the large member deformations of an element. The influences of the axial force on the member stiffness and the changes in the member chord length are taken into account using a modified bowing function which is formulated in the total secant stiffness relationship, for which the coupling of the axial strain and flexural bowing is included. The accuracy and efficiency of the technique is verified by comparisons with a number of plane and spatial structures, whose structural response has been reported in independent studies.

Shifting Powers : Protection of Refugees and Displaced Persons in the Asia Pacific Region

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' (UNHCR) 2011 statistics on refugee populations residing by region are a stark reminder of the challenge facing states and civil society in the Asia Pacific. In 2011, Africa hosted 2,149,000 refugees; the Americas, Europe, and Middle East and North Africa hosted 513 ,500, 1,605,500 and 1,889,900 respectively, while the Asia Pacific hosted a staggering 3,793,900. The fact that 35 per cent of the world's refugees reside in the Asia Pacific, coupled with the fact that 84 per cent of refugees displaced in Asia remain in the region,raises the questions why so few countries in the region are signatories to the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees ('Refugee Convention') or cognate rights instruments and why no formally binding regional agreement exists for the equitable sharing of responsibilities for refugees...