Productivity shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated endogenous growth model with human capital

Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the dynamics and the trends in the data not captured by the theoretical growth model, we introduce a vector error correction model (VECM) of the measurement errors and estimate the model’s posterior density function using Bayesian methods. To contextualize our findings with those in the literature, we also assess whether the endogenous growth model or the standard real business cycle model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. In addressing these issues we contribute to both the methods of analysis and the ongoing debate regarding the effects of innovations to productivity on macroeconomic activity.

Roles of aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) isoforms and retinoic acids in the growth and differentiation potential of human adult cardiac progenitor cells

Aim: We have studied human adult cardiac progenitor cells (CPCs) based on high aldehyde dehydrogenase activity (ALDH-hi), a property shared by many stem cells across tissues and organs. However, the role of ALDH in stem cell function is poorly known. In humans, there are 19 ALDH isoforms with different biological activities. The isoforms responsible for the ALDH-hi phenotype of stem cells are not well known but they may include ALDH1A1 and ALDH1A3 isoforms, which function in all-trans retinoic acid (RA) cell signaling. ALDH activity has been shown to regulate hematopoietic stem cell function via RA. We aimed to analyze ALDH isoform expression and the role of RA in human CPC function. Methods: Human adult CPCs were isolated from atrial appendage samples from patients who underwent heart surgery for coronary artery or valve disease. Atrial samples were either cultured as primary explants or enzymatically digested and sorted for ALDH activity by FACS. ALDH isoforms were determined by qRT-PCR. Cells were cultured in the presence or absence of the specific ALDH inhibitor DEAB, with or without RA. Induction of cardiac-specific genes in cells cultured in differentiation medium was measured by qRT-PCR. Results: While ALDH-hi CPCs grew in culture and could be expanded, ALDH-low cells grew poorly. CPC isolated as primary explant outgrowths expressed high levels of ALDH1A3 but not of other isoforms. CPCs isolated from cardiospheres expressed relatively high levels of all the 11 isoforms tested. In contrast, expanded CPCs and cardiosphere-derived cells expressed low levels of all ALDH isoforms. DEAB inhibited CPC growth in a dose-dependent manner, whereas RA rescued CPC growth in the presence of DEAB. In differentiation medium, ALDH-hi CPCs expressed approximately 300-fold higher levels of cardiac troponin T compared with their ALDH-low counterparts. Conclusions: High ALDH activity identifies human adult cardiac cells with high growth and cardiomyogenic potential. ALDH1A3 and, possibly, ALDH1A1 isoforms account for high ALDH activity and RA-mediated regulation of CPC growth.

Competitive ability not kinship affects growth of Arabidopsis thaliana accessions.

In many organisms, individuals behave more altruistically towards relatives than towards unrelated individuals. Here, we conducted a study to determine if the performance of Arabidopsis thaliana is influenced by whether individuals are in competition with kin or non-kin. We selected seven pairs of genetically distinct accessions that originated from local populations throughout Europe. We measured the biomass of one focal plant surrounded by six kin or non-kin neighbours in in vitro growth experiments and counted the number of siliques produced per pot by one focal plant surrounded by four kin or non-kin neighbours. The biomass and number of siliques of a focal plant were not affected by the relatedness of the neighbour. Depending on the accession, a plant performed better or worse in a pure stand than when surrounded by non-kin plants. In addition, whole-genome microarray analyses revealed that there were no genes differentially expressed between kin and non-kin conditions. In conclusion, our study does not provide any evidence for a differential response to kin vs non-kin in A. thaliana. Rather, the outcome of the interaction between kin and non-kin seems to depend on the strength of the competitive abilities of the accessions.

Growth and Survival Determinants of Chinese Private Firms: Fieldwork evidence and econometric estimates

This paper reports on one of the first empirical attempts to investigate small firm growth and survival, and their determinants, in the Peoples’ Republic of China. The work is based on field work evidence gathered from a sample of 83 Chinese private firms (mainly SMEs) collected initially by face-to-face interviews, and subsequently by follow-up telephone interviews a year later. We extend the models of Gibrat (1931) and Jovanovic (1982), which traditionally focus on size and age alone (e.g. Brock and Evans, 1986), to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model with two types of additional explanatory variables: firm-specific (e.g. business planning); and environmental (e.g. choice of location). We estimate two econometric models: a ‘basic’ age-size-growth model; and a ‘comprehensive’ growth model, using Heckman’s two-step regression procedure. Estimation is by log-linear regression on cross-section data, with corrections for sample selection bias and heteroskedasticity. Our results refute a pure Gibrat model (but support a more general variant) and support the learning model, as regards the consequences of size and age for growth; and our extension to a comprehensive model highlights the importance of location choice and customer orientation for the growth of Chinese private firms. In the latter model, growth is explained by variables like planning, R&D orientation, market competition, elasticity of demand etc. as well as by control variables. Our work on small firm growth achieves two things. First, it upholds the validity of ‘basic’ size-age-growth models, and successfully applies them to the Chinese economy. Second, it extends the compass of such models to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model incorporating firm-specific and environmental variables.

The Growth in Inter-connectedness in the Scottish Economy, 1998-2007; a disaggregated analysis

The measurement of inter-connectedness in an economy using input-output tables is not new, however much of the previous literature has not had any explicit dynamic dimension. Studies have tried to estimate the degree of inter-relatedness for an economy at a given point in time using one input-output table, some have compared different economies at a point in time but few have looked at the question of how interconnectedness within an economy changes over time. The publication in 2010 of a consistent series of input-output tables for Scotland offers the researcher the opportunity to track changes in the degree of inter-connectedness over the seven year period 1998 to 2007. The paper is in two parts. A simple measure of inter-connectedness is introduced in the first part of the paper and applied to the Scottish tables. In the second part of the paper an extraction method is applied to sector by sector to the tables in order to estimate how interconnectedness has changed over time for each industrial sector.

Strain specific variation of outer membrane proteins of wild Yersinia pestis strains subjected to different growth temperatures

Three Yersinia pestis strains isolated from humans and one laboratory strain (EV76) were grown in rich media at 28§C and 37§C and their outer membrane protein composition compared by sodium dodecyl sulphate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-Page). Several proteins with molecular weights ranging from 34 kDa to 7 kDa were observed to change in relative abundance in samples grown at different temperatures. At least seven Y. pestis outer membrane proteins showed a temperature-dependent and strain-specific behaviour. Some differences between the outer membrane proteins of full-pathogenic wild isolates and the EV76 strain could aldso be detected and the relevance of this finding on the use of laboratory strains as a reference to the study of Y. pestis biological properties is discuted.

The relationship between public education expenditure and economic growth: The case of India

The paper reviews the theoretical and the empirical case for public investment in education in India. Though the theoretical literature provides a backing for such a policy, the empirical literature fails to find a robust relation between education expenditure and growth. Expenditure on education is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for growth. It seems that the effectiveness of education expenditure depends on the institutional and labour market characteristics of the economy. The effectiveness of education investments also depends on other factors such as trade openness. Due to these aforesaid factors, we argue that the empirical relation between education expenditure and growth for India has been inconsistent.

Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth

Forecasts of differences in growth between countries serve an important role in the justification of governments’ fiscal policy stances, but are not tested for their accuracy as part of the current range of forecast evaluation methods. This paper examines forecasted and outturn growth differentials between countries to identify if there is usefulness in forecasts of “relative” growth. Using OECD forecasts and outturn values for GDP growth for (combinations of) the G7 countries between 1984 and 2010, the paper finds that the OECD’s success in predicting the relative growth of G7 countries during this period is good. For each two-country combination results indicate that relative growth forecasts are less useful for countries which have smaller outturn growth differentials.

Relationship between trade openness and economic growth of India: A time series analysis

The paper aims to examine the empirical relationship between trade openness and economic growth of India for the time period 1970-2010. Trade openness is a multi-dimensional concept and hence measures of both trade barriers and trade volumes have been used as proxies for openness. The estimation results from Vector Autoregressive method suggest that growth in trade volumes accelerate economic growth in case of India. We do not find any evidence from our analysis that trade barriers lower growth.

Factor Proportions and the Growth of World Trade

Most of the expansion of global trade during the last three decades has been of the North-South kind - between capital-abundant developed and labour-abundant developing countries. Based on this observation, I argue that the recent growth of world trade is best understood from a factor-proportions perspective. I present novel evidence documenting that differences in capital-labour ratios across countries have increased in the wake of two shocks to the global economy: i) the opening up of China and ii) financial globalisation and the resulting upstream capital flows towards capital-abundant regions. I analyse their impact on specialisation and the volume of trade in a dynamic model which combines factor-proportions trade in goods with international trade in financial assets. Calibrating this model, I find that it can account for 60% of world trade growth between 1980 and 2007. It is also capable of predicting international investment patterns which are consistent with the data

The international trade as the sole engine of growth for an economy

Can international trade act as the sole engine of growth for an economy? If yes, what are the mechanisms through which trade operates in transmitting permanent growth? This paper answers these questions with two simple two-country models, in which only one country enjoys sustained growth in autarky. The models differ in the assumptions on technical change, which is either labour- or capital-augmenting. In both cases, the stagnant economy imports growth by trading. In the first model, growth is transmitted because of permanent increases in the trade volume. In the alternative framework, the stagnant economy imports sustained growth because its terms of trade permanently improve.

Comparative studies on the growth and reproductive performances of Rhodnius prolixus reared on different blood sources

Host blood source was found to affect both the development and the reproductive performance of Rhodnius prolixus. The insects were reared on citrated human, rabbit, chicken, sheep and horse blood sources, through a membrane feeder, during an entire life cycle, from eggs to adults. Development and reproduction in terms of the number of unfed insects, number of moulting, mortality intermoulting period, number of egg/female, conversion of blood into egg (mg meal/egg) and percentage of hatch as effective physiological parameters were investigated. Our results showed that human or rabbit blood meals were more nutritionally efficient than the other blood samples used because (i) the insects developed faster, presented low mortality and about 80% of them reached the adult stage; and (ii) females oviposited an average of at least 100% more eggs. The inefficiency of chicken and horse blood sources as diets for R. prolixus was manifested in (i) a decrease of the amount of ingested blood and (ii) only a reasonable nutritional quality. The inadequacy of sheep blood was observed by a mortality extremely high, poor moulting response and drastic reduction in egg production.

The Growth in Inter-connectedness in the Scottish Economy 1998-2007; a disaggregated analysis.

The measurement of inter-connectedness in an economy using input-output tables is not new, however much of the previous literature has not had any explicit dynamic dimension. Studies have tried to estimate the degree of inter-relatedness for an economy at a given point in time using one input-output table, some have compared different economies at a point in time but few have looked at the question of how interconnectedness within an economy changes over time. The publication in 2010 of a consistent series of input-output tables for Scotland offers the researcher the opportunity to track changes in the degree of inter-connectedness over the seven year period 1998 to 2007. The paper is in two parts. A simple measure of inter-connectedness is introduced in the first part of the paper and applied to the Scottish tables. In the second part of the paper an extraction method is applied to sector by sector to the tables in order to estimate how interconnectedness has changed over time for each industrial sector.

The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth

Modern macroeconomic theory utilises optimal control techniques to model the maximisation of individual well-being using a lifetime utility function. Agents face choices over current and future consumption (with resultant implied savings decisions) seeking to maximise the present value of current plus future well-being. However, such inter-temporal welfare-maximising assumptions remain empirically untested. In the work presented here we test whether welfare was in (historical) fact maximised in the US between 1870-2000 and find empirical support for the optimising basis of growth theory, but only once a comprehensive view of what constitutes a country’s wealth or capital is taken into account.

Nowcasting Scottish GDP Growth

The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.