Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Um estudo sobre a variabilidade do vento no nordeste do Brasil através de métodos estatísticos e via modelos dinâmicos de meso e micro escala

The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal and interannual variability and calculate the trends of wind speed in NEB and then validate the mesoscale numerical model for after engage with the microscale numerical model in order to get the wind resource at some locations in the NEB. For this we use two data sets of wind speed (weather stations and anemometric towers) and two dynamic models; one of mesoscale and another of microscale. We use statistical tools to evaluate and validate the data obtained. The simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model were made using data assimilation methods (Newtonian Relaxation and Kalman filter). The main results show: (i) Five homogeneous groups of wind speed in the NEB with higher values in winter and spring and with lower in summer and fall; (ii) The interannual variability of the wind speed in some groups stood out with higher values; (iii) The large-scale circulation modified by the El Niño and La Niña intensified wind speed for the groups with higher values; (iv) The trend analysis showed more significant negative values for G3, G4 and G5 in all seasons and in the annual average; (v) The performance of dynamic mesoscale model showed smaller errors in the locations Paracuru and São João and major errors were observed in Triunfo; (vi) Application of the Kalman filter significantly reduce the systematic errors shown in the simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model; (vii) The wind resource indicate that Paracuru and Triunfo are favorable areas for the generation of energy, and the coupling technique after validation showed better results for Paracuru. We conclude that the objective was achieved, making it possible to identify trends in homogeneous groups of wind behavior, and to evaluate the quality of both simulations with the dynamic model of mesoscale and microscale to answer questions as necessary before planning research projects in Wind-Energy area in the NEB

Physical oceanography during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-V/3

The work carried out by the physical oceanography group on POLARSTERN Leg ANT-V/3 concentrated on four major topics: A. A large scale survey of the eastern boundary between the Weddell gyre and the open ocean. On the way to the coastal polynya in early October 12 CTD stations were carried out between 54°30'S, 6°E and 70°30'S 8°W. Another set of 16 stations was obtained in early December on the way back north. During this transsect three current meter moorings were recovered at Maud Rise. The path between the current meter arrays was used to run an additional section to the NNE across the top of Maud Rise. B. A large scale survey of the Antarctic Coastal Current along the eastern shelf area. To obtain the water mass characteristics along the eastern Weddell shelf 36 CTD stations were carried out between Atka Bay and the Filchner Trench. Most of the stations were located on the shelf. Cross shelf sections were obtained both near Drescher Inlet and off Halley Bay, in the divergence area of the Coastal Current where the continental slope turns to the west and south of Vestkapp at Neptune's Point. A longshore section over 120 km was run north of Vestkapp. C. A mesoscale survey of the Antarctic Coastal Current off Drescher Inlet. The experimental work consisted of 37 CTD-stations and direct current measurements. The CTD-profiles were grouped into seven sections perpendicular to the coast line off Drescher Inlet extending once over 70 km but normally over 35 km. The profile depth ranged from 300 m on one section to the complete water column at two sections. Most sections consist of five stations providing highest resolution over the upper continental slope with offshore increasing spacing. The stations were chosen to represent the shelf (450 m), the shelf break (800 m), the upper slope (1600 m), the lower slope (2400 m) and the transition to the abyssal plain (3400 m). Rough topography and difficult ice conditions made it impossible to meet those requirements in all cases. D. A small scale survey of the hydrographic conditions under the sea ice. The motivation for these studies arose during the cruise. Consequently a suitable Instrumentation had to be developed at sea. This was done with a NB-Smart CTD which was inserted on an L-shaped lever through a hole in the ice. However, various water intrusions into the instrument resulted in the failure of this technique. In consequence a special lever system was built to position a NB Mark 3b weighing about 40 kg below the ice. Twenty four profiles were obtained reaching from the bottom of the ice down to 2 m below the ice surface with a maximum distance of 1 m from the entry hole. As the conductivity sensor was influenced by nearby ice platelets, salinity samples where drawn to check the sensor.

N2 fixation in eddies of the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean

Mesoscale eddies play a major role in controlling ocean biogeochemistry. By impacting nutrient availability and water column ventilation, they are of critical importance for oceanic primary production. In the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean off Peru, where a large and persistent oxygen-deficient zone is present, mesoscale processes have been reported to occur frequently. However, investigations into their biological activity are mostly based on model simulations, and direct measurements of carbon and dinitrogen (N2) fixation are scarce. We examined an open-ocean cyclonic eddy and two anticyclonic mode water eddies: a coastal one and an open-ocean one in the waters off Peru along a section at 16°S in austral summer 2012. Molecular data and bioassay incubations point towards a difference between the active diazotrophic communities present in the cyclonic eddy and the anticyclonic mode water eddies. In the cyclonic eddy, highest rates of N2 fixation were measured in surface waters but no N2 fixation signal was detected at intermediate water depths. In contrast, both anticyclonic mode water eddies showed pronounced maxima in N2 fixation below the euphotic zone as evidenced by rate measurements and geochemical data. N2 fixation and carbon (C) fixation were higher in the young coastal mode water eddy compared to the older offshore mode water eddy. A co-occurrence between N2 fixation and biogenic N2, an indicator for N loss, indicated a link between N loss and N2 fixation in the mode water eddies, which was not observed for the cyclonic eddy. The comparison of two consecutive surveys of the coastal mode water eddy in November 2012 and December 2012 also revealed a reduction in N2 and C fixation at intermediate depths along with a reduction in chlorophyll by half, mirroring an aging effect in this eddy. Our data indicate an important role for anticyclonic mode water eddies in stimulating N2 fixation and thus supplying N offshore.

Theory and Practice in Sustainability Science: Influence of Urban Form on the Urban Heat Island and Implications for Urban Systems

As the world population continues to grow past seven billion people and global challenges continue to persist including resource availability, biodiversity loss, climate change and human well-being, a new science is required that can address the integrated nature of these challenges and the multiple scales on which they are manifest. Sustainability science has emerged to fill this role. In the fifteen years since it was first called for in the pages of Science, it has rapidly matured, however its place in the history of science and the way it is practiced today must be continually evaluated. In Part I, two chapters address this theoretical and practical grounding. Part II transitions to the applied practice of sustainability science in addressing the urban heat island (UHI) challenge wherein the climate of urban areas are warmer than their surrounding rural environs. The UHI has become increasingly important within the study of earth sciences given the increased focus on climate change and as the balance of humans now live in urban areas.

In Chapter 2 a novel contribution to the historical context of sustainability is argued. Sustainability as a concept characterizing the relationship between humans and nature emerged in the mid to late 20th century as a response to findings used to also characterize the Anthropocene. Emerging from the human-nature relationships that came before it, evidence is provided that suggests Sustainability was enabled by technology and a reorientation of world-view and is unique in its global boundary, systematic approach and ambition for both well being and the continued availability of resources and Earth system function. Sustainability is further an ambition that has wide appeal, making it one of the first normative concepts of the Anthropocene.

Despite its widespread emergence and adoption, sustainability science continues to suffer from definitional ambiguity within the academe. In Chapter 3, a review of efforts to provide direction and structure to the science reveals a continuum of approaches anchored at either end by differing visions of how the science interfaces with practice (solutions). At one end, basic science of societally defined problems informs decisions about possible solutions and their application. At the other end, applied research directly affects the options available to decision makers. While clear from the literature, survey data further suggests that the dichotomy does not appear to be as apparent in the minds of practitioners.

In Chapter 4, the UHI is first addressed at the synoptic, mesoscale. Urban climate is the most immediate manifestation of the warming global climate for the majority of people on earth. Nearly half of those people live in small to medium sized cities, an understudied scale in urban climate research. Widespread characterization would be useful to decision makers in planning and design. Using a multi-method approach, the mesoscale UHI in the study region is characterized and the secular trend over the last sixty years evaluated. Under isolated ideal conditions the findings indicate a UHI of 5.3 ± 0.97 °C to be present in the study area, the magnitude of which is growing over time.

Although urban heat islands (UHI) are well studied, there remain no panaceas for local scale mitigation and adaptation methods, therefore continued attention to characterization of the phenomenon in urban centers of different scales around the globe is required. In Chapter 5, a local scale analysis of the canopy layer and surface UHI in a medium sized city in North Carolina, USA is conducted using multiple methods including stationary urban sensors, mobile transects and remote sensing. Focusing on the ideal conditions for UHI development during an anticyclonic summer heat event, the study observes a range of UHI intensity depending on the method of observation: 8.7 °C from the stationary urban sensors; 6.9 °C from mobile transects; and, 2.2 °C from remote sensing. Additional attention is paid to the diurnal dynamics of the UHI and its correlation with vegetation indices, dewpoint and albedo. Evapotranspiration is shown to drive dynamics in the study region.

Finally, recognizing that a bridge must be established between the physical science community studying the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the planning community and decision makers implementing urban form and development policies, Chapter 6 evaluates multiple urban form characterization methods. Methods evaluated include local climate zones (LCZ), national land cover database (NCLD) classes and urban cluster analysis (UCA) to determine their utility in describing the distribution of the UHI based on three standard observation types 1) fixed urban temperature sensors, 2) mobile transects and, 3) remote sensing. Bivariate, regression and ANOVA tests are used to conduct the analyses. Findings indicate that the NLCD classes are best correlated to the UHI intensity and distribution in the study area. Further, while the UCA method is not useful directly, the variables included in the method are predictive based on regression analysis so the potential for better model design exists. Land cover variables including albedo, impervious surface fraction and pervious surface fraction are found to dominate the distribution of the UHI in the study area regardless of observation method.

Chapter 7 provides a summary of findings, and offers a brief analysis of their implications for both the scientific discourse generally, and the study area specifically. In general, the work undertaken does not achieve the full ambition of sustainability science, additional work is required to translate findings to practice and more fully evaluate adoption. The implications for planning and development in the local region are addressed in the context of a major light-rail infrastructure project including several systems level considerations like human health and development. Finally, several avenues for future work are outlined. Within the theoretical development of sustainability science, these pathways include more robust evaluations of the theoretical and actual practice. Within the UHI context, these include development of an integrated urban form characterization model, application of study methodology in other geographic areas and at different scales, and use of novel experimental methods including distributed sensor networks and citizen science.

Particle flux characterisation and sedimentation patterns of protistan plankton during the iron fertilisation experiment LOHAFEX in the Southern Ocean

The taxonomic composition and types of particles comprising the downward particle flux were examined during the mesoscale artificial iron fertilisation experiment LOHAFEX. The experiment was conducted in low-silicate waters of the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean during austral summer (January-March 2009), and induced a bloom dominated by small flagellates. Downward particle flux was low throughout the experiment, and not enhanced by addition of iron; neutrally buoyant sediment traps contained mostly faecal pellets and faecal material apparently reprocessed by mesozooplankton. TEP fluxes were low, <5 mg GX eq/m**2/day, and a few phytodetrital aggregates were found in the sediment traps. Only a few per cent of the POC flux was found in the traps consisting of intact protist plankton, although remains of taxa with hard body parts (diatoms, tintinnids, thecate dinoflagellates and foraminifera) were numerous, far more so than intact specimens of these taxa. Nevertheless, many small flagellates and coccoid cells, belonging to the pico- and nanoplankton, were found in the traps, and these small, soft-bodied cells probably contributed the majority of downward POC flux via mesozooplankton grazing and faecal pellet export. TEP likely played an important role by aggregating these small cells, and making them more readily available to mesozooplankton grazers.

Continuous VM-ADCP (vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler) profiles of horizontal velocities and raw acoustic gain control data during Polarstern cruise ANT-XVIII/2

The mixing regime of the upper 180 m of a mesoscale eddy in the vicinity of the Antarctic Polar Front at 47° S and 21° E was investigated during the R.V. Polarstern cruise ANT-XVIII/2 within the scope of the iron fertilization experiment EisenEx. On the basis of hydrographic CTD and ADCP profiles we deduced the vertical diffusivity Kz from two different parameterizations. Since these parameterizations bear the character of empirical functions, based on theoretical and idealized assumptions, they were inter alia compared with Cox-number and Thorpe-scale related diffusivities deduced from microstructure measurements, which supplied the first direct insights into turbulence of this ocean region. Values of Kz in the range of 10**-4 - 10**-3 m**2/s appear as a rather robust estimate of vertical diffusivity within the seasonal pycnocline. Values in the mixed layer above are more variable in time and reach 10**-1 m**2/s during periods of strong winds. The results confirm a close agreement between the microstructure-based eddy diffusivities and eddy diffusivities calculated after the parameterization of Pacanowski and Philander [1981, Journal of Physical Oceanography 11, 1443-1451, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1981)011<1443:POVMIN>2.0.CO;2].

Profiles of iron concentration from GoFlow bottles during the CARUSO-EISENEX experiment

An in situ iron enrichment experiment was carried out in the Southern Ocean Polar Frontal Zone and fertilized a patch of water within an eddy of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (EisenEx, Nov. 2000). During the experiment, a physical speciation technique was used for iron analysis in order to understand the changes in iron distribution and size-fractionations, including soluble Fe (<200 kDa), colloidal Fe (200 kDa-0.2 µm) and labile particle Fe (>0.2 µm), throughout the development of the phytoplankton bloom. Prior to the first infusion of iron, dissolved (<0.2 µm) iron concentrations in the ambient surface seawater were extremely low (0.06±0.015 nM) with colloidal iron being a minor fraction. For the iron addition, an acidified FeSO4 solution was released three times over a 23-day period to the eddy. High levels of dissolved iron concentrations (2.0±1.1 nM) were measured in the surface water until 4 days after the first iron infusion. After every iron infusion, when high iron concentrations were observed before storm events, there was a significant correlation between colloidal and dissolved iron concentrations ([Colloidal Fe]=0.7627[Dissolved Fe]+0.0519, R2=0.9346). These results indicate that a roughly constant proportion of colloidal vs. dissolved iron was observed after iron infusion (~76%). Storm events caused a significant decrease in iron concentrations (<0.61 nM in dissolved iron) and changed the proportions of the three iron size-fractions (soluble, colloidal and labile particle). The changes in each iron size-fraction indicate that colloidal iron was eliminated from surface mixed layer more easily than particulate and soluble fractions. Therefore, particle and soluble iron efficiently remain in the mixed layer, probably due to the presence of suspended particles and naturally dissolved organic ligands. Our data suggest that iron removal through colloidal aggregation during phytoplankton bloom should be considered in the oceanic iron cycle.

Oxygen Utilization and Downward Carbon Flux in an Oxygen-Depleted Eddy in the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic

The occurrence of mesoscale eddies that develop suboxic environments at shallow depth (about 40-100 m) has recently been reported for the eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA). Their hydrographic structure suggests that the water mass inside the eddy is well isolated from ambient waters supporting the development of severe near-surface oxygen deficits. So far, hydrographic and biogeochemical characterization of these eddies was limited to a few autonomous surveys, with the use of moorings, under water gliders and profiling floats. In this study we present results from the first dedicated biogeochemical survey of one of these eddies conducted in March 2014 near the Cape Verde Ocean Observatory (CVOO). During the survey the eddy core showed oxygen concentrations as low as 5 µmol kg-1 with a pH of around 7.6 at approximately 100 m depth. Correspondingly, the aragonite saturation level dropped to 1 at the same depth, thereby creating unfavorable conditions for calcifying organisms. To our knowledge, such enhanced acidity within near-surface waters has never been reported before for the open Atlantic Ocean. Vertical distributions of particulate organic matter and dissolved organic matter (POM and DOM), generally showed elevated concentrations in the surface mixed layer (0-70 m), with DOM also accumulating beneath the oxygen minimum. With the use of reference data from the upwelling region where these eddies are formed, the oxygen utilization rate was calculated by determining oxygen consumption through the remineralization of organic matter. Inside the core, we found these rates were almost 1 order of magnitude higher (apparent oxygen utilization rate (aOUR); 0.26 µmol kg-1 day-1) than typical values for the open North Atlantic. Computed downward fluxes for particulate organic carbon (POC), were around 0.19 to 0.23 g C m-2 day-1 at 100 m depth, clearly exceeding fluxes typical for an oligotrophic open-ocean setting. The observations support the view that the oxygen-depleted eddies can be viewed as isolated, westwards propagating upwelling systems of their own, thereby represent re-occurring alien biogeochemical environments in the ETNA.

(Table 3) Interannual variability of total mass flux at the deep sediment trap site CBmeso between 1988 and 2006

This article will review major features of the 'giant' Cape Blanc filament off Mauritania with regard to the transport of chlorophyll and organic carbon from the shelf to the open ocean. Within the filament, chlorophyll is transported about 400 km offshore. Modelled particle distributions along a zonal transect at 21°N showed that particles with a sinking velocity of 5 m d**-1 are advected offshore by up to 600 km in subsurface particle clouds generally located between 400 m and 800 m water depth, forming an Intermediate Nepheloid Layer (INL). It corresponds to the depth of the oxygen minimum zone. Heavier particles with a sinking velocity of 30 m d**-1 are transported from the shelf within the Bottom Layer (BL) of more than 1000 m thickness, largely following the topography of the bottom slope. The particles advected within the BL contribute to the enhanced winter-spring mass fluxes collected at the open-ocean mesotrophic sediment trap site CB-13 (200 nm offshore), due to a long distance advection in deeper waters. The lateral contribution to the deep sediment trap in winter-spring is estimated to be 63% and 72% for organic carbon and total mass, respectively, whereas the lateral input for both components on an annual basis is estimated to be in the order of 15%. Biogenic opal increases almost fivefold from the upper to the lower mesotrophic CB-13 trap, also pointing to an additional source for biogenic silica from eutrophic coastal waters. Blooms obviously sink in smaller, probably mesoscale-sized patches with variable settling rates, depending on the type of aggregated particles and their ballast content. Generally, particle sinking rates are exceptionally high off NW Africa. Very high chlorophyll values and a large size of the Cape Blanc filament in 1998-1999 are also documented in enhanced total mass and organic carbon fluxes. An increasing trend in satellite chlorophyll concentrations and the size of the Cape Blanc filament between 1997 and 2008 as observed for other coastal upwelling areas is not documented.

Physical oceanography and processed 2 minutes-averaged continuous VM-ADCP profiles during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXVIII/3

The physical and biological carbon pumps in the different hydrographic and biogeochemical regimes of the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean are controlled by a series of coupled physical, chemical and biological processes and a project named Eddy-Pump was designed to study them. The Eddy Pump field campaign was carried out during RV Polarstern Cruise ANT-XXVIII/3 between January and March 2012. Particular emphasis was laid on the differences which occur along the axis of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) with its associated mesoscale eddy field. The study sites were selected in order to represent (1) the central ACC with its regular separation in different frontal jets, investigated by a meridional transect along 10°E; (2) a large-scale bloom west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge which lasted several months with conspicuous chlorophyll-poor waters to its immediate east studied by a three-dimensional mesoscale survey centred at 12°40'W; and (3) the Georgia Basin north of the island of South Georgia, which regularly features an extended and dense phytoplankton bloom, was investigated by a mesoscale survey centred at 38°12'W. While Eddy-Pump represents an interdisciplinary project by design, we here focus on describing the variable physical environment within which the different biogeochemical regimes developed. For describing the physical environment we use measurements of temperature, salinity and density, of mixed-layer turbulence parameters, of dynamic heights and horizontal current vectors, and of flow trajectories obtained from surface drifters and submerged floats. This serves as background information for the analyses of biological and chemical processes and of biogeochemical fluxes addressed by other papers in this issue. The section along 10°E between 44°S and 53°S showed a classical ACC structure with well-known hydrographic fronts, the Subantarctic Front (SAF) at 46.5°S, the Antarctic Polar Front (APF) split in two, at 49.25°S and 50.5°S, and the Southern Polar Front (SPF) at 52.5°S. Each front was associated with strong eastward flows. The West Mid-Atlantic Ridge Survey showed a weak and poorly resolved meander structure between the APF and the SPF. During the first eight days of the survey the oceanographic conditions at the Central Station at 12°40'W remained reasonably constant. However after that, conditions became more variable in the thermocline with conspicuous temperature inversions and interleavings and also a decrease in temperature in the surface layer. At the very end of the period of observation the conditions in the thermocline returned to being similar to those observed during the early part of the period with however the mixed layer temperature raised. The period of enhanced thermohaline variability was accompanied by increased currents. The Georgia Basin Survey showed a very strong zonal jet at its northern edge which connects to a large cyclonic meander that itself joins an anticyclonic eddy in the southeastern quadrant. The water mass contrasts in this survey were stronger than in the West Mid-Atlantic Ridge Survey, but similar to those met along 10°E with the exception that the warm and saline surface water typical of the northern side of the SAF was not covered by the Georgia Basin Survey. Mixed layers found during Eddy-Pump were typically deep, but varied between the three survey areas; the mean depths and standard variations of the mixed layer along the 10°E were 77.2±24.7 m, at the West Mid-Atlantic Ridge 66.7±17.7 m, and in the Georgia Basin 36.8±10.7 m.

Wind Resource Mapping Using Landscape Roughness and Spatial Interpolation Methods

Energy saving, reduction of greenhouse gasses and increased use of renewables are key policies to achieve the European 2020 targets. In particular, distributed renewable energy sources, integrated with spatial planning, require novel methods to optimise supply and demand. In contrast with large scale wind turbines, small and medium wind turbines (SMWTs) have a less extensive impact on the use of space and the power system, nevertheless, a significant spatial footprint is still present and the need for good spatial planning is a necessity. To optimise the location of SMWTs, detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution of the average wind speed is essential, hence, in this article, wind measurements and roughness maps were used to create a reliable annual mean wind speed map of Flanders at 10 m above the Earth’s surface. Via roughness transformation, the surface wind speed measurements were converted into meso- and macroscale wind data. The data were further processed by using seven different spatial interpolation methods in order to develop regional wind resource maps. Based on statistical analysis, it was found that the transformation into mesoscale wind, in combination with Simple Kriging, was the most adequate method to create reliable maps for decision-making on optimal production sites for SMWTs in Flanders (Belgium).

Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermo- haline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa, is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution (<1/10 deg.) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2–4 cycles per year) and spatial (300–500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models (<1/4 deg.) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2 deg.) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermo- haline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa, is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution (<1/10 deg.) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2–4 cycles per year) and spatial (300–500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models (<1/4 deg.) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2 deg.) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

Modelling the crush behaviour of thermoplastic composites

Thermoplastic composites are likely to emerge as the preferred solution for meeting the high-volume production demands of passenger road vehicles. Substantial effort is currently being directed towards the development of new modelling techniques to reduce the extent of costly and time consuming physical testing. Developing a high-fidelity numerical model to predict the crush behaviour of composite laminates is dependent on the accurate measurement of material properties as well as a thorough understanding of damage mechanisms associated with crush events. This paper details the manufacture, testing and modelling of self-supporting corrugated-shaped thermoplastic composite specimens for crashworthiness assessment. These specimens demonstrated a 57.3% higher specific energy absorption compared to identical specimen made from thermoset composites. The corresponding damage mechanisms were investigated in-situ using digital microscopy and post analysed using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Splaying and fragmentation modes were the 2 primary failure modes involving fibre breakage, matrix cracking and delamination. A mesoscale composite damage model, with new non-linear shear constitutive laws, which combines a range of novel techniques to accurately capture the material response under crushing, is presented. The force-displacement curves, damage parameter maps and dissipated energy, obtained from the numerical analysis, are shown to be in a good qualitative and quantitative agreement with experimental results. The proposed approach could significantly reduce the extent of physical testing required in the development of crashworthy structures.