Sensitivity of biogenic isoprene emissions to past, present and future environmental conditions and implications for atmospheric chemistry.

[1] We have implemented a process-based isoprene emission model in the HadGEM2 Earth-system model with coupled atmospheric chemistry in order to examine the feedback between isoprene emission and climate. Isoprene emissions and their impact on atmospheric chemistry and climate are estimated for preindustrial (1860–1869), present-day (2000–2009), and future (2100–2109) climate conditions. The estimate of 460 TgC/yr for present-day global total isoprene emission is consistent with previous estimates. Preindustrial isoprene emissions are estimated to be 26% higher than present-day. Future isoprene emissions using the RCP8.5 scenario are similar to present-day because increased emissions resulting from climate warming are countered by CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions. The impact of biogenic isoprene emissions on the global O3 burden and CH4 lifetime is small but locally significant, and the impact of changes in isoprene emissions on atmospheric chemistry depends strongly on the state of climate and chemistry.

Volatile isoprenoid emissions from plastid to planet

Approximately 1–2% of net primary production by land plants is re-emitted to the atmosphere as isoprene and monoterpenes. These emissions play major roles in atmospheric chemistry and air pollution–climate interactions. Phenomenological models have been developed to predict their emission rates, but limited understanding of the function and regulation of these emissions has led to large uncertainties in model projections of air quality and greenhouse gas concentrations. We synthesize recent advances in diverse fields, from cell physiology to atmospheric remote sensing, and use this information to propose a simple conceptual model of volatile isoprenoid emission based on regulation of metabolism in the chloroplast. This may provide a robust foundation for scaling up emissions from the cellular to the global scale.

Impact of anthropogenic heat emissions on London's temperatures

We investigate the role of the anthropogenic heat flux on the urban heat island of London. To do this, the time-varying anthropogenic heat flux is added to an urban surface-energy balance parametrization, the Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme (MORUSES), implemented in a 1 km resolution version of the UK Met Office Unified Model. The anthropogenic heat flux is derived from energy-demand data for London and is specified on the model's 1 km grid; it includes variations on diurnal and seasonal time-scales. We contrast a spring case with a winter case, to illustrate the effects of the larger anthropogenic heat flux in winter and the different roles played by thermodynamics in the different seasons. The surface-energy balance channels the anthropogenic heat into heating the urban surface, which warms slowly because of the large heat capacity of the urban surface. About one third of this additional warming goes into increasing the outgoing long-wave radiation and only about two thirds goes into increasing the sensible heat flux that warms the atmosphere. The anthropogenic heat flux has a larger effect on screen-level temperatures in the winter case, partly because the anthropogenic flux is larger then and partly because the boundary layer is shallower in winter. For the specific winter case studied here, the anthropogenic heat flux maintains a well-mixed boundary layer through the whole night over London, whereas the surrounding rural boundary layer becomes strongly stably stratified. This finding is likely to have important implications for air quality in winter. On the whole, inclusion of the anthropogenic heat flux improves the comparison between model simulations and measurements of screen-level temperature slightly and indicates that the anthropogenic heat flux is beginning to be an important factor in the London urban heat island.

A case study to investigate the life cycle carbon emissions and carbon storage capacity of a cross laminated timber, multi-storey residential building

Forests are a store of carbon and an eco-system that continually removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. If they are sustainably managed, the carbon store can be maintained at a constant level, while the trees removed and converted to timber products can form an additional long term carbon store. The total carbon store in the forest and associated ‘wood chain’ therefore increases over time, given appropriate management. This increasing carbon store can be further enhanced with afforestation. The UK’s forest area has increased continually since the early 1900s, although the rate of increase has declined since its peak in the late 1980s, and it is a similar picture in the rest of Europe. The increased sustainable use of timber in construction is a key market incentive for afforestation, which can make a significant contribution to reducing carbon emissions. The case study presented in this paper demonstrates the carbon benefits of a Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) solution for a multi-storey residential building in comparison with a more conventional reinforced concrete solution. The embodied carbon of the building up to completion of construction is considered, together with the stored carbon during the life of the building and the impact of different end of life scenarios. The results of the study show that the total stored carbon in the CLT structural frame is 1215tCO2 (30tCO2 per housing unit). The choice of treatment at end of life has a significant effect on the whole life embodied carbon of the CLT frame, which ranges from -1017 tCO2e for re-use to +153tCO2e for incinerate without energy recovery. All end of life scenarios considered result in lower total CO2e emissions for the CLT frame building compared with the reinforced concrete frame solution.

Improving EU biofuels policy? Greenhouse gas emissions, policy efficiency, and WTO compatibility

Both the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and Article 7a of its Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) seek to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport fuels. The RED mandates a 10% share of renewable energy in transport fuels by 2020, whilst the FQD requires a 6% reduction in GHG emissions (from a 2010 base) by the same date. In practice, it will mainly be biofuels that economic operators will use to meet these requirements, but the different approaches can lead to either the RED, or the FQD, acting as the binding constraint. A common set of environmental sustainability criteria apply to biofuels under both the RED and the FQD. In particular, biofuels have to demonstrate a 35% (later increasing to 50/60%) saving in life-cycle GHG emissions. This could be problematic in the World Trade Organization (WTO), as a non-compliant biofuel with a 34% emissions saving would probably be judged to be ‘like’ a compliant biofuel. A more economically rational way to reduce GHG emissions, and one that might attract greater public support, would be for the RED to reward emission reductions along the lines of the FQD. Moreover, this modification would probably make the provisions more acceptable in the WTO, as there would be a clearer link between policy measures and the objective of reductions in GHG emissions; and the combination of the revised RED and the FQD would lessen the commercial incentive to import biofuels with modest GHG emission savings, and thus reduce the risk of trade tension.

Evaluation of a photosynthesis-based biogenic isoprene emission scheme in JULES and simulation of isoprene emissions under present-day climate conditions

We have incorporated a semi-mechanistic isoprene emission module into the JULES land-surface scheme, as a first step towards a modelling tool that can be applied for studies of vegetation – atmospheric chemistry interactions, including chemistry-climate feedbacks. Here, we evaluate the coupled model against local above-canopy isoprene emission flux measurements from six flux tower sites as well as satellite-derived estimates of isoprene emission over tropical South America and east and south Asia. The model simulates diurnal variability well: correlation coefficients are significant (at the 95 % level) for all flux tower sites. The model reproduces day-to-day variability with significant correlations (at the 95 % confidence level) at four of the six flux tower sites. At the UMBS site, a complete set of seasonal observations is available for two years (2000 and 2002). The model reproduces the seasonal pattern of emission during 2002, but does less well in the year 2000. The model overestimates observed emissions at all sites, which is partially because it does not include isoprene loss through the canopy. Comparison with the satellite-derived isoprene-emission estimates suggests that the model simulates the main spatial patterns, seasonal and inter-annual variability over tropical regions. The model yields a global annual isoprene emission of 535 ± 9 TgC yr−1 during the 1990s, 78 % of which from forested areas.

High-resolution (space, time) anthropogenic heat emissions: London 1970-2025

The anthropogenic heat emissions generated by human activities in London are analysed in detail for 2005–2008 and considered in context of long-term past and future trends (1970–2025). Emissions from buildings, road traffic and human metabolism are finely resolved in space (30 min) and time (200 × 200 m2). Software to compute and visualize the results is provided. The annual mean anthropogenic heat flux for Greater London is 10.9 W m−2 for 2005–2008, with the highest peaks in the central activities zone (CAZ) associated with extensive service industry activities. Towards the outskirts of the city, emissions from the domestic sector and road traffic dominate. Anthropogenic heat is mostly emitted as sensible heat, with a latent heat fraction of 7.3% and a heat-to-wastewater fraction of 12%; the implications related to the use of evaporative cooling towers are briefly addressed. Projections indicate a further increase of heat emissions within the CAZ in the next two decades related to further intensification of activities within this area.

Time valued life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from buildings

The UK has adopted legally binding carbon reduction targets of 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (measured against the 1990 baseline). Buildings are estimated to be responsible for more than 50% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the UK. These consist of both operational, produced during use, and embodied, produced during manufacture of materials and components, and during construction, refurbishments and demolition. A brief assessment suggests that it is unlikely that UK emission reduction targets can be met without substantial reductions in both Oc and Ec. Oc occurs over the lifetime of a building whereas the bulk of Ec occurs at the start of a building’s life. A time value for emissions could influence the decision making process when it comes to comparing mitigation measures which have benefits that occur at different times. An example might be the choice between building construction using low Ec construction materials versus building construction using high Ec construction materials but with lower Oc, although the use of high Ec materials does not necessarily imply a lower Oc. Particular time related issues examined here are: the urgency of the need to achieve large emissions reductions during the next 10 to 20 years; the earlier effective action is taken, the less costly it will be; future reduction in carbon intensity of energy supply; the carbon cycle and relationship between the release of GHG’s and their subsequent concentrations in the atmosphere. An equation is proposed, which weights emissions according to when they occur during the building life cycle, and which effectively increases Ec as a proportion of the total, suggesting that reducing Ec is likely to be more beneficial, in terms of climate change, for most new buildings. Thus, giving higher priority to Ec reductions is likely to result in a bigger positive impact on climate change and mitigation costs.

Responding to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme: an empirical analysis of corporate carbon disclosure strategy

The purpose of this paper is to explore how companies that hold carbon trading accounts under European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) respond to the climate change by using disclosures on carbon emissions as a means to generate legitimacy compared to others. The study is based on disclosures made in annual reports and stand-alone sustainability reports of UK listed companies from 2001- 2012. The study uses content analysis to capture both the quality and volume of the carbon disclosures. The results show that there is a significant increase in both the quality and volume of the carbon disclosures after the launch of EU ETS. Companies with carbon trading accounts provide greater detailed disclosures as compared to the others without an account. We also find that company size is positively correlated with the disclosures while the association with the industry produces an inconclusive result.

The Impact of office productivity cloud computing on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

Cloud computing is usually regarded as being energy efficient and thus emitting less greenhouse gases (GHG) than traditional forms of computing. When the energy consumption of Microsoft’s cloud computing Office 365 (O365) and traditional Office 2010 (O2010) software suites were tested and modeled, some cloud services were found to consume more energy than the traditional form. The developed model in this research took into consideration the energy consumption at the three main stages of data transmission; data center, network, and end user device. Comparable products from each suite were selected and activities were defined for each product to represent a different computing type. Microsoft provided highly confidential data for the data center stage, while the networking and user device stages were measured directly. A new measurement and software apportionment approach was defined and utilized allowing the power consumption of cloud services to be directly measured for the user device stage. Results indicated that cloud computing is more energy efficient for Excel and Outlook which consumed less energy and emitted less GHG than the standalone counterpart. The power consumption of the cloud based Outlook (8%) and Excel (17%) was lower than their traditional counterparts. However, the power consumption of the cloud version of Word was 17% higher than its traditional equivalent. A third mixed access method was also measured for Word which emitted 5% more GHG than the traditional version. It is evident that cloud computing may not provide a unified way forward to reduce energy consumption and GHG. Direct conversion from the standalone package into the cloud provision platform can now consider energy and GHG emissions at the software development and cloud service design stage using the methods described in this research.

The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model

A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE) has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated.