925 resultados para MIXED LINEAR-MODELS


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Background Nowadays there is extensive evidence available showing the efficacy of cognitive remediation (CR). To date, only limited evidence is available about the impact of the duration of illness on CR effects. The Integrated Neurocognitive Therapy (INT) represents a new developed CR approach. It is a manualized group therapy targeting all 11 NIMH-MATRICS domains. Methods In an international multicenter study, 166 schizophrenia outpatients (DSM-IV-TR) were randomly assigned either to INT or to Treatment-As-Usual (TAU). 60 patients were defined as Early Course group (EC) characterized by less than 5 years of illness, 40 patients were in the Long-Term group (LT) characterized by more than 15 years of illness, and 76 patients were in the Medium-Long-Term group (MLT) characterized by an illness of 5-15 years. Treatment comprised of 15 biweekly sessions. Assessments were conducted before and after treatment and at follow up (1 year). Multivariate General Linear Models (GLM) examined our hypothesis, whether EC, LT, and MLT groups differ under INT and TAU from each other in outcome. Results First of all, the attendance rate of 65% was significantly lower and the drop out rate of 18.5% during therapy was higher in the EC group compared to the other groups. Interaction effects regarding proximal outcome showed that the duration of illness has a strong impact on neurocognitive functioning in speed of processing (F>2.4) and attention (F>2.8). But INT intervention compared to TAU only had a significant effect in more chronically ill patients of MLT and LT, but not in younger patients in EC. In social cognitive domains, only the EC group showed a significant change in attribution (hostility; F>2.5), LT and MLT groups did not. However, no differences between the 3 groups were evident in memory, problem solving, and emotion perception. Regarding more distal outcome, LT patients had more symptoms compared to EC (F>4.4). Finally, EC patients showed higher improvements in psychosocial functioning compared to LT and MLT (F=1.8). Conclusions Against common expectations, long-term, more chronically ill patients showed higher effects in basal cognitive functions compared to younger patients and patients without any active therapy (TAU). On the other hand, early-course patients had a greater potential to change in attribution, symptoms and psychosocial functioning. Consequently, more integrated therapy offers are also recommended for long-term course schizophrenia patients.

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BACKGROUND Genome-wide association studies have linked CYP17A1 coding for the steroid hormone synthesizing enzyme 17α-hydroxylase (CYP17A1) to blood pressure (BP). We hypothesized that the genetic signal may translate into a correlation of ambulatory BP (ABP) with apparent CYP17A1 activity in a family-based population study and estimated the heritability of CYP17A1 activity. METHODS In the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension, day and night urinary excretions of steroid hormone metabolites were measured in 518 participants (220 men, 298 women), randomly selected from the general population. CYP17A1 activity was assessed by 2 ratios of urinary steroid metabolites: one estimating the combined 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase activity (ratio 1) and the other predominantly 17α-hydroxylase activity (ratio 2). A mixed linear model was used to investigate the association of ABP with log-transformed CYP17A1 activities exploring effect modification by urinary sodium excretion. RESULTS Daytime ABP was positively associated with ratio 1 under conditions of high, but not low urinary sodium excretion (P interaction <0.05). Ratio 2 was not associated with ABP. Heritability estimates (SE) for day and night CYP17A1 activities were 0.39 (0.10) and 0.40 (0.09) for ratio 1, and 0.71 (0.09) and 0.55 (0.09) for ratio 2 (P values <0.001). CYP17A1 activities, assessed with ratio 1, were lower in older participants. CONCLUSIONS Low apparent CYP17A1 activity (assessed with ratio 1) is associated with elevated daytime ABP when salt intake is high. CYP17A1 activity is heritable and diminished in the elderly. These observations highlight the modifying effect of salt intake on the association of CYP17A1 with BP.

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OBJECTIVES The aim of the present longitudinal study was to investigate bacterial colonization of the internal implant cavity and to evaluate a possible association with peri-implant bone loss. METHODS A total of 264 paper point samples were harvested from the intra-implant cavity of 66 implants in 26 patients immediately following implant insertion and after 3, 4, and 12 months. Samples were evaluated for Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Fusobacterium nucleatum, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotella intermedia, Treponema denticola, and Tannerella forsythia as well as total bacterial counts by real-time PCR. Bone loss was evaluated on standardized radiographs up to 25 months after implant insertion. For the statistical analysis of the data, mixed effects models were fitted. RESULTS There was an increase in the frequency of detection as well as in the mean counts of the selected bacteria over time. The evaluation of the target bacteria revealed a significant association of Pr. intermedia at 4 and 12 months with peri-implant bone loss at 25 months (4 months: P = 0.009; 12 months: P = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS The present study could demonstrate a progressive colonization by periodontopathogenic bacteria in the internal cavities of two-piece implants. The results suggest that internal colonization with Pr. intermedia was associated with peri-implant bone loss.

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Aim Our aims were to compare the composition of testate amoeba (TA) communities from Santa Cruz Island, Galápagos Archipelago, which are likely in existence only as a result of anthropogenic habitat transformation, with similar naturally occurring communities from northern and southern continental peatlands. Additionally, we aimed at assessing the importance of niche-based and dispersal-based processes in determining community composition and taxonomic and functional diversity. Location The humid highlands of the central island of Santa Cruz, Galápagos Archipelago. Methods We survey the alpha, beta and gamma taxonomic and functional diversities of TA, and the changes in functional traits along a gradient of wet to dry habitats. We compare the TA community composition, abundance and frequency recorded in the insular peatlands with that recorded in continental peatlands of Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We use generalized linear models to determine how environmental conditions influence taxonomic and functional diversity as well as the mean values of functional traits within communities. We finally apply variance partitioning to assess the relative importance of niche- and dispersal-based processes in determining community composition. Results TA communities in Santa Cruz Island were different from their Northern Hemisphere and South American counterparts with most genera considered as characteristic for Northern Hemisphere and South American Sphagnum peatlands missing or very rare in the Galápagos. Functional traits were most correlated with elevation and site topography and alpha functional diversity to the type of material sampled and site topography. Community composition was more strongly correlated with spatial variables than with environmental ones. Main conclusions TA communities of the Sphagnum peatlands of Santa Cruz Island and the mechanisms shaping these communities contrast with Northern Hemisphere and South American peatlands. Soil moisture was not a strong predictor of community composition most likely because rainfall and clouds provide sufficient moisture. Dispersal limitation was more important than environmental filtering because of the isolation of the insular peatlands from continental ones and the young ecological history of these ecosystems.

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Introduction: According to the ecological view, coordination establishes byvirtueof social context. Affordances thought of as situational opportunities to interact are assumed to represent the guiding principles underlying decisions involved in interpersonal coordination. It’s generally agreed that affordances are not an objective part of the (social) environment but that they depend on the constructive perception of involved subjects. Theory and empirical data hold that cognitive operations enabling domain-specific efficacy beliefs are involved in the perception of affordances. The aim of the present study was to test the effects of these cognitive concepts in the subjective construction of local affordances and their influence on decision making in football. Methods: 71 football players (M = 24.3 years, SD = 3.3, 21 % women) from different divisions participated in the study. Participants were presented scenarios of offensive game situations. They were asked to take the perspective of the person on the ball and to indicate where they would pass the ball from within each situation. The participants stated their decisions in two conditions with different game score (1:0 vs. 0:1). The playing fields of all scenarios were then divided into ten zones. For each zone, participants were asked to rate their confidence in being able to pass the ball there (self-efficacy), the likelihood of the group staying in ball possession if the ball were passed into the zone (group-efficacy I), the likelihood of the ball being covered safely by a team member (pass control / group-efficacy II), and whether a pass would establish a better initial position to attack the opponents’ goal (offensive convenience). Answers were reported on visual analog scales ranging from 1 to 10. Data were analyzed specifying general linear models for binomially distributed data (Mplus). Maximum likelihood with non-normality robust standard errors was chosen to estimate parameters. Results: Analyses showed that zone- and domain-specific efficacy beliefs significantly affected passing decisions. Because of collinearity with self-efficacy and group-efficacy I, group-efficacy II was excluded from the models to ease interpretation of the results. Generally, zones with high values in the subjective ratings had a higher probability to be chosen as passing destination (βself-efficacy = 0.133, p < .001, OR = 1.142; βgroup-efficacy I = 0.128, p < .001, OR = 1.137; βoffensive convenience = 0.057, p < .01, OR = 1.059). There were, however, characteristic differences in the two score conditions. While group-efficacy I was the only significant predictor in condition 1 (βgroup-efficacy I = 0.379, p < .001), only self-efficacy and offensive convenience contributed to passing decisions in condition 2 (βself-efficacy = 0.135, p < .01; βoffensive convenience = 0.120, p < .001). Discussion: The results indicate that subjectively distinct attributes projected to playfield zones affect passing decisions. The study proposes a probabilistic alternative to Lewin’s (1951) hodological and deterministic field theory and enables insight into how dimensions of the psychological landscape afford passing behavior. Being part of a team, this psychological landscape is not only constituted by probabilities that refer to the potential and consequences of individual behavior, but also to that of the group system of which individuals are part of. Hence, in regulating action decisions in group settings, informers are extended to aspects referring to the group-level. References: Lewin, K. (1951). In D. Cartwright (Ed.), Field theory in social sciences: Selected theoretical papers by Kurt Lewin. New York: Harper & Brothers.

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Theoretical models predict lognormal species abundance distributions (SADs) in stable and productive environments, with log-series SADs in less stable, dispersal driven communities. We studied patterns of relative species abundances of perennial vascular plants in global dryland communities to: (i) assess the influence of climatic and soil characteristics on the observed SADs, (ii) infer how environmental variability influences relative abundances, and (iii) evaluate how colonisation dynamics and environmental filters shape abundance distributions. We fitted lognormal and log-series SADs to 91 sites containing at least 15 species of perennial vascular plants. The dependence of species relative abundances on soil and climate variables was assessed using general linear models. Irrespective of habitat type and latitude, the majority of the SADs (70.3%) were best described by a lognormal distribution. Lognormal SADs were associated with low annual precipitation, higher aridity, high soil carbon content, and higher variability of climate variables and soil nitrate. Our results do not corroborate models predicting the prevalence of log-series SADs in dryland communities. As lognormal SADs were particularly associated with sites with drier conditions and a higher environmental variability, we reject models linking lognormality to environmental stability and high productivity conditions. Instead our results point to the prevalence of lognormal SADs in heterogeneous environments, allowing for more evenly distributed plant communities, or in stressful ecosystems, which are generally shaped by strong habitat filters and limited colonisation. This suggests that drylands may be resilient to environmental changes because the many species with intermediate relative abundances could take over ecosystem functioning if the environment becomes suboptimal for dominant species.

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BACKGROUND There are concerns about the effects of in utero exposure to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) on the development of HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU) children. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether in utero exposure to ARVs is associated with lower birth weight/height and reduced growth during the first 2 years of life. METHODS This cohort study was conducted among HEU infants born between 1996 and 2010 in Tertiary children's hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Weight was measured by mechanical scale, and height was measured by measuring board. Z-scores for weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-length were calculated. We modeled trajectories by mixed-effects models and adjusted for mother's age, CD4 cell count, viral load, year of birth and family income. RESULTS A total of 588 HEU infants were included of whom 155 (26%) were not exposed to ARVs, 114 (19%) were exposed early (first trimester) and 319 (54%) later. WAZ were lower among infants exposed early compared with infants exposed later: adjusted differences were -0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.99 to -0.04, P = 0.02) at birth and -0.22 (95% CI: -0.47 to 0.04, P = 0.10) during follow-up. LAZ were lower during follow-up: -0.35 (95% CI: -0.63 to -0.08, P = 0.01). There were no differences in weight-for-length scores. Z-scores of infants exposed late during pregnancy were similar to unexposed infants. CONCLUSIONS In HEU children, early exposure to ARVs was associated with lower WAZ at birth and lower LAZ up to 2 years of life. Growth of HEU children needs to be monitored closely.

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Previous studies of normal children have linked body fat but not body fat distribution (BFD), to higher blood pressures, lipids, and insulin resistance (Berenson et al., 1988) BFD is a well-established risk factor for cardiovascular disease in adults (Björntorp, 1988). This study investigates the relation of BFD and serum lipids at baseline in children from Project HeartBeat!, a study of the growth and development of cardiovascular risk factors in 678 children in three cohorts measured initially at ages 8, 11, and 14 years. Initially, two of four indices of BFD were significantly related to the lipids: ratio of upper to lower body skinfolds (ln US:LS) and conicity (C Index). A factor analysis reduced the information in the serum lipids to two vectors: (1) total cholesterol + LDL-cholesterol and (2) HDL-cholesterol − triglycerides, which together accounted for 85% of the lipid variation. Using each serum lipid and vector as separate dependent variables, linear and quadratic regression models were constructed to examine the predictive ability of the two BFD variables, controlling for total body fat, gender, ethnicity (Black, non-Black) and maturation. Linear models provided an acceptable fit. Percent body fat (%BF) was a significant predictor in each and every lipid model, independent of age, maturation, or ethnicity (p ≤ 0.05). No BFD variable entered the equation for total or LDL-cholesterol, although there was a significant maturity by BFD interaction for LDL (ln US:LS was a significant predictor in more mature individuals). Both %BF and BFD (by way of Conicity) were significant predictors of HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides (p ≤ 0.01). All models were statistically significant at a high level (p ≤ 0.01), but adjusted R 2's for all models were low (0.05–0.15). Body fat distribution is a significant predictor of lipids in normal children, but secondarily to %BF, and for LDL-cholesterol in particular, the relation is dependent on maturity status. ^

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In most epidemiological studies, historical monitoring data are scant and must be pooled to identify occupational groups with homogeneous exposures. Homogeneity of exposure is generally assessed in a group of workers who share a common job title or work in a common area. While published results suggest that the degree of homogeneity varies widely across job groups, less is known whether such variation differs across industrial sectors, classes of contaminants, or in the methods used to group workers. Relying upon a compilation of results presented in the literature, patterns of homogeneity among nearly 500 occupational groups of workers were evaluated on the basis of type of industry and agent. Additionally, effects of the characteristics of the sampling strategy on estimated indicators of homogeneity of exposure were assessed. ^ Exposure profiles for occupational groups of workers have typically been assessed under the assumption of stationarity, i.e., the mean exposure level and variance of the distribution that describes the underlying population of exposures are constant over time. Yet, the literature has shown that occupational exposures have declined in the last decades. This renders traditional methods for the description of exposure profiles inadequate. Thus, work was needed to develop appropriate methods to assess homogeneity for groups of workers whose exposures have changed over time. A study was carried out applying mixed effects models with a term for temporal trend to appropriately describe exposure profiles of groups of workers in the nickel-producing industry over a 20-year period. Using a sub-set of groups of nickel-exposed workers, another study was conducted to develop and apply a framework to evaluate the assumption of stationarity of the variances in the presence of systematic changes in exposure levels over time. ^

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Asthma is the most common chronic disorder in childhood, affecting an estimated 6.2 million children under 18 years (1). The purpose of this study was to look at individual- and community-level characteristics simultaneously to examine and explain the factors that contribute to the use of emergency department services by children 18 years old or less and to determine if there was an association between air quality and ED visits in the same population, from 2005-2007 in Houston/Harris County. Data were collected from the Houston Safety Net Hospital Emergency Department Use Study and the 2000 US Census. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models and mixed effects models were used to analyze data that was collected during the study period.^ There were 704,902 ED visits made by children 18 and younger, who were living in Houston from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2007. Of those, 19,098 had a primary discharge diagnosis of asthma. Asthma ED visits varied by season, with proportions of ED visits for asthma highest from September-December. African-American children were 2.6 (95% CI, 2.43-2.66) times more likely to have an ED visit for asthma compared to White children. Poverty, single parent headed households, and younger age all a greater likelihood of having gone to the ED for asthma treatment. Compared to Whites living in lightly-monitored pollution areas, African-Americans and Hispanics living in heavily monitored areas were 1.15 (95% CI, 1.04-1.28) times more likely to have an ED visit for asthma.^ Race and poverty seem to account for a large portion of the disparities in ED use found among children. This was true even after accounting for multiple individual- and community-level variables. These results suggest that racial disparities in asthma continue to pose risks for African American children, and they point to the need for additional research into potential explanations and remedies. Programs to reduce inappropriate ED use must be sensitive to an array of complex socioeconomic issues within minority and income populations. ^

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Next-generation DNA sequencing platforms can effectively detect the entire spectrum of genomic variation and is emerging to be a major tool for systematic exploration of the universe of variants and interactions in the entire genome. However, the data produced by next-generation sequencing technologies will suffer from three basic problems: sequence errors, assembly errors, and missing data. Current statistical methods for genetic analysis are well suited for detecting the association of common variants, but are less suitable to rare variants. This raises great challenge for sequence-based genetic studies of complex diseases.^ This research dissertation utilized genome continuum model as a general principle, and stochastic calculus and functional data analysis as tools for developing novel and powerful statistical methods for next generation of association studies of both qualitative and quantitative traits in the context of sequencing data, which finally lead to shifting the paradigm of association analysis from the current locus-by-locus analysis to collectively analyzing genome regions.^ In this project, the functional principal component (FPC) methods coupled with high-dimensional data reduction techniques will be used to develop novel and powerful methods for testing the associations of the entire spectrum of genetic variation within a segment of genome or a gene regardless of whether the variants are common or rare.^ The classical quantitative genetics suffer from high type I error rates and low power for rare variants. To overcome these limitations for resequencing data, this project used functional linear models with scalar response to develop statistics for identifying quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for both common and rare variants. To illustrate their applications, the functional linear models were applied to five quantitative traits in Framingham heart studies. ^ This project proposed a novel concept of gene-gene co-association in which a gene or a genomic region is taken as a unit of association analysis and used stochastic calculus to develop a unified framework for testing the association of multiple genes or genomic regions for both common and rare alleles. The proposed methods were applied to gene-gene co-association analysis of psoriasis in two independent GWAS datasets which led to discovery of networks significantly associated with psoriasis.^

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BACKGROUND: This observational research study investigated the association of cardiorespiratory fitness and weight status with repeated measures of 24-hr ambulatory blood pressure (24-hr ABP). Little is known about these associations and few data exist examining the interaction between cardiorespiratory fitness and weight status and the contributions of each on 24-hr ABP in youth. ^ METHODS: This research study used secondary analysis data from the "Adolescent Blood Pressure and Anger: Ethnic Differences" study. This current study sample included 374 African-American, Anglo-American, and Mexican-American adolescents 11-16 years of age. Mixed-effects models were used for testing the relationship between weight status and cardiorespiratory fitness and repeated measures of ambulatory blood pressure over 24 hours (24-hr ABP). Weight status was categorized into "normal weight" (BMI<85th percentile), "overweight" (85th≤BMI<95th), and "obese" (BMI≥95th). Cardiorespiratory fitness, determined by heart rate recovery (HRR), was defined as the difference between heart rate at peak exercise and heart rate at two minutes post-exercise, as measured by a height-adjusted step test and stratified into two groups: low and high fitness, using a median split. Ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) was monitored for a 24-hr period on a school day using the Spacelabs ambulatory monitor (Model 90207). Blood pressure and heart rate were recorded at 30 minute intervals throughout the day of recording and at 60 minute intervals during sleep. ^ RESULTS: No significant associations were found between weight status and mean 24-hr systolic blood pressure (SBP) or mean arterial pressure (MAP). A significant and inverse association between weight status and mean 24-hr diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was revealed. Cardiorespiratory fitness was significantly and inversely associated with mean 24-hr ABP. High fitness adolescents had significantly lower mean 24-hr SPB, DBP, and MAP measurements than low fitness adolescents. Compared to low fitness adolescents, high fitness adolescents had 1.90 mmHg, 1.16 mmHg, and 1.68 mmHg lower mean 24-hr SBP, DBP, and MAP, respectively. Additionally, high fitness appeared to afford protection from higher mean 24-hr SBP and MAP, irrespective of weight status. Among normal weight adolescents, low fitness resulted in higher mean 24-hr SBP and MAP, compared to their fit counterparts. Among adolescents categorized as high fitness, increasing weight status did not appear to result in higher mean 24-hr SBP or MAP. Cardiorespiratory fitness, rather than weight status, appeared to be a more dominant predictor of mean 24-hr SBP and MAP. ^ CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this research is the first study to investigate the independent and combined contributions of cardiorespiratory fitness and weight status on 24-hr ABP, all objectively measured. The results of this study may potentially guide and inform future research. It appears that early cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention should focus on improving cardiorespiratory fitness levels among all adolescents, particularly those adolescents least fit, regardless of their weight status, while obesity prevention efforts continue.^

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Study 1: Schools provide a range of opportunities for youth to be active, however, over the past decade, these opportunities have been declining. Sports teams are a promising venue to promote physical activity yet limited research has examined the gender an ethnic differences in sport participation. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in sport participation from 1991-2009 among US high school students. Secondly, we examined the association between gender and ethnicity with sports over time. This serial cross-sectional study used surveillance data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, a probability based sample weighted to represent gender and race/ethnic subpopulations of US high school students. The findings of this paper reveal persistent gender and ethnic disparities for sports participation among US youth. Since sports teams may provide a substantial source of physical activity, greater efforts should be undertaken to increase the participation of girls, especially minorities, in sports teams. ^ Study 2: Sports team participation is congruent with teaching and supporting healthy eating, yet limited research has examined the association between sports participation and dietary behaviors. This study aims to determine the association between youth sports participation and dietary behaviors among elementary-aged children. Significant dose-response associations were observed between number of sports teams and consumption of most fruits and vegetables. The likelihood of eating fruit for boys increased with the number of sports teams (1 team: OR=1.89; 3 teams: OR=3.44, p<0.001) and the likelihood of consuming green vegetables for girls was higher with the number of sports teams (1 team: OR=1.50; 3 teams: OR=2.39; p<0.001). For boys, the odds of consuming fruit-flavored drinks was higher ( p=0.019) and the odds of drinking soda was lower (p=0.018) with participation in increasing number of sports teams whereas for girls, sports participation was positively associated with diet soda consumption (p=0.006). ^ Study 3: Parents and peers have been shown to have a strong influence over the physical activity, dietary, and sedentary behaviors of youth. Youth sports teams have the potential to offer physical activity, displace sedentary behaviors, and promote a healthy diet. The purpose of this study is to assess how peer and parental support for physical activity and healthy eating, coupled with sport participation, is associated obesity related risk factors including diet and sedentary behaviors. A secondary analysis of data from the School Physical Activity and Nutrition study, a state-representative survey, was conducted. Eighth (n=3,931) and 11th (n=2,785) grade students were categorized into four groups based upon the level of peer and parental support derived from a three item scale and their participation in sports (sports/high support, sports/low support, no sports/high support, no sports/low support). Linear models were conducted to determine the difference in means between these groups for the following outcome variables: previous day fruit and vegetable intake, scores for an unhealthy and healthy food index, and hours spent watching television, playing video games, and working on a computer. Eighth graders had significantly greater levels of parental support for healthy eating and physical activity compared to 11th grade. Both 8 th and 11th graders in the sport/high support for healthy eating from peers and parents scored significantly higher on the healthy food index than other groups. Eighth and 11th graders in the sport/high support for physical activity from peers participated in fewer hours of sedentary behaviors than any other group (p ≤ 0.032). Although it is thought that sport participation may offer opportunities to support a healthy diet and displace sedentary time by offering providing physical activity, our study found that parental and peer support for activity and healthy eating may further attenuate this association. Parents and peer support should be an important target when developing strategies to improve healthy diets and reduce sedentary time among youth, especially in the context of youth sports. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

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The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^

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Understanding how the environment influences patterns of diversity is vital for effective conservation management, especially in a changing global climate. While assemblage structure and species richness patterns are often correlated with current environmental factors, historical influences may also be considerable, especially for taxa with poor dispersal abilities. Mountain-top regions throughout tropical rainforests can act as important refugia for taxa characterised by low dispersal capacities such as flightless ground beetles (Carabidae), an ecologically significant predatory group. We surveyed flightless ground beetles along elevational gradients in five different subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area to investigate (1) whether the diversity and composition of flightless ground beetles are elevationally stratified, and, if so, (2) what environmental factors (other than elevation per se) are associated with these patterns. Generalised linear models and model averaging techniques were used to relate patterns of diversity to environmental factors. Unlike most taxonomic groups, flightless ground beetles increased in species richness and abundance with elevation. Additionally, each subregion consisted of distinct assemblages containing a high level of regional endemic species. Species richness was most strongly positively associated with the historical climatic conditions and negatively associated with severity of recent disturbance (treefalls) and current climatic conditions. Assemblage composition was associated with latitude and current and historical climatic conditions. Our results suggest that distributional patterns of flightless ground beetles are not only likely to be associated with factors that change with elevation (current climatic conditions), but also factors that are independent of elevation (recent disturbance and historical climatic conditions). Variation in historical vegetation stability explained both species richness and assemblage composition patterns, probably reflecting the significance of upland refugia at a geographic time scale. These findings are important for conservation management as upland habitats are under threat from climate change.