On the Behaviour of Marginal and Conditional Akaike Information Criteria in Linear Mixed Models

In linear mixed models, model selection frequently includes the selection of random effects. Two versions of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) have been used, based either on the marginal or on the conditional distribution. We show that the marginal AIC is no longer an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the Akaike information, and in fact favours smaller models without random effects. For the conditional AIC, we show that ignoring estimation uncertainty in the random effects covariance matrix, as is common practice, induces a bias that leads to the selection of any random effect not predicted to be exactly zero. We derive an analytic representation of a corrected version of the conditional AIC, which avoids the high computational cost and imprecision of available numerical approximations. An implementation in an R package is provided. All theoretical results are illustrated in simulation studies, and their impact in practice is investigated in an analysis of childhood malnutrition in Zambia.

Influence of Mechanical and Thermal Boundary Conditions on Stabilizing/Destabilizing Mechanisms in Evaporating Liquid Films

Liquid films, evaporating or non-evaporating, are ubiquitous in nature and technology. The dynamics of evaporating liquid films is a study applicable in several industries such as water recovery, heat exchangers, crystal growth, drug design etc. The theory describing the dynamics of liquid films crosses several fields such as engineering, mathematics, material science, biophysics and volcanology to name a few. Interfacial instabilities typically manifest by the undulation of an interface from a presumed flat state or by the onset of a secondary flow state from a primary quiescent state or both. To study the instabilities affecting liquid films, an evaporating/non-evaporating Newtonian liquid film is subject to a perturbation. Numerical analysis is conducted on configurations of such liquid films being heated on solid surfaces in order to examine the various stabilizing and destabilizing mechanisms that can cause the formation of different convective structures. These convective structures have implications towards heat transfer that occurs via this process. Certain aspects of this research topic have not received attention, as will be obvious from the literature review. Static, horizontal liquid films on solid surfaces are examined for their resistance to long wave type instabilities via linear stability analysis, method of normal modes and finite difference methods. The spatiotemporal evolution equation, available in literature, describing the time evolution of a liquid film heated on a solid surface, is utilized to analyze various stabilizing/destabilizing mechanisms affecting evaporating and non-evaporating liquid films. The impact of these mechanisms on the film stability and structure for both buoyant and non-buoyant films will be examined by the variation of mechanical and thermal boundary conditions. Films evaporating in zero gravity are studied using the evolution equation. It is found that films that are stable to long wave type instabilities in terrestrial gravity are prone to destabilization via long wave instabilities in zero gravity.

Information Integration Theory and the Construction of Individually Perceived Group Efficacy

According to Bandura (1997) efficacy beliefs are a primary determinant of motivation. Still, very little is known about the processes through which people integrate situational factors to form efficacy beliefs (Myers & Feltz, 2007). The aim of this study was to gain insight into the cognitive construction of subjective group-efficacy beliefs. Only with a sound understanding of those processes is there a sufficient base to derive psychological interventions aimed at group-efficacy beliefs. According to cognitive theories (e.g., Miller, Galanter, & Pribram, 1973) individual group-efficacy beliefs can be seen as the result of a comparison between the demands of a group task and the resources of the performing group. At the center of this comparison are internally represented structures of the group task and plans to perform it. The empirical plausibility of this notion was tested using functional measurement theory (Anderson, 1981). Twenty-three students (M = 23.30 years; SD = 3.39; 35 % females) of the University of Bern repeatedly judged the efficacy of groups in different group tasks. The groups consisted of the subjects and another one to two fictive group members. The latter were manipulated by their value (low, medium, high) in task-relevant abilities. Data obtained from multiple full factorial designs were structured with individuals as second level units and analyzed using mixed linear models. The task-relevant abilities of group members, specified as fixed factors, all had highly significant effects on subjects’ group-efficacy judgments. The effect sizes of the ability factors showed to be dependent on the respective abilities’ importance in a given task. In additive tasks (Steiner, 1972) group resources were integrated in a linear fashion whereas significant interaction between factors was obtained in interdependent tasks. The results also showed that people take into account other group members’ efficacy beliefs when forming their own group-efficacy beliefs. The results support the notion that personal group-efficacy beliefs are obtained by comparing the demands of a task with the performing groups’ resources. Psychological factors such as other team members’ efficacy beliefs are thereby being considered task relevant resources and affect subjective group-efficacy beliefs. This latter finding underlines the adequacy of multidimensional measures. While the validity of collective efficacy measures is usually estimated by how well they predict performances, the results of this study allow for a somewhat internal validity criterion. It is concluded that Information Integration Theory holds potential to further help understand people’s cognitive functioning in sport relevant situations.

Correlation between Accurate Electron Density and Linear Optical Properties in Amino Acid Derivatives: L-Histidinium Hydrogen Oxalate

The accurate electron density and linear optical properties of L-histidinium hydrogen oxalate are discussed. Two high-resolution single crystal X-ray diffraction experiments were performed and compared with density functional calculations in the solid state as well as in the gas phase. The crystal packing and the hydrogen bond network are accurately investigated using topological analysis based on quantum theory of atoms in molecules, Hirshfeld surface analysis, and electrostatic potential mapping. The refractive indices are computed from couple perturbed Kohn-Sham calculations and measured experimentally. Moreover, distributed atomic polarizabilities are used to analyze the origin of the linear susceptibility in the crystal, in order to separate molecular and intermolecular causes. The optical properties are also correlated with the electron density distribution. This compound also offers the possibility to test the electron density building block approach for material science and different refinement schemes for accurate positions and displacement parameters of hydrogen atoms, in the absence of neutron diffraction data.

Materials properties from electron density distributions: Molecular magnetism and linear optical properties

The general goal of this thesis is correlating observable properties of organic and metal-organic materials with their ground-state electron density distribution. In a long-term view, we expect to develop empirical or semi-empirical approaches to predict materials properties from the electron density of their building blocks, thus allowing to rationally engineering molecular materials from their constituent subunits, such as their functional groups. In particular, we have focused on linear optical properties of naturally occurring amino acids and their organic and metal-organic derivatives, and on magnetic properties of metal-organic frameworks. For analysing the optical properties and the magnetic behaviour of the molecular or sub-molecular building blocks in materials, we mostly used the more traditional QTAIM partitioning scheme of the molecular or crystalline electron densities, however, we have also investigated a new approach, namely, X-ray Constrained Extremely Localized Molecular Orbitals (XC-ELMO), that can be used in future to extracted the electron densities of crystal subunits. With the purpose of rationally engineering linear optical materials, we have calculated atomic and functional group polarizabilities of amino acid molecules, their hydrogen-bonded aggregates and their metal-organic frameworks. This has enabled the identification of the most efficient functional groups, able to build-up larger electric susceptibilities in crystals, as well as the quantification of the role played by intermolecular interactions and coordinative bonds on modifying the polarizability of the isolated building blocks. Furthermore, we analysed the dependence of the polarizabilities on the one-electron basis set and the many-electron Hamiltonian. This is useful for selecting the most efficient level of theory to estimate susceptibilities of molecular-based materials. With the purpose of rationally design molecular magnetic materials, we have investigated the electron density distributions and the magnetism of two copper(II) pyrazine nitrate metal-organic polymers. High-resolution X-ray diffraction and DFT calculations were used to characterize the magnetic exchange pathways and to establish relationships between the electron densities and the exchange-coupling constants. Moreover, molecular orbital and spin-density analyses were employed to understand the role of different magnetic exchange mechanisms in determining the bulk magnetic behaviour of these materials. As anticipated, we have finally investigated a modified version of the X-ray constrained wavefunction technique, XC-ELMOs, that is not only a useful tool for determination and analysis of experimental electron densities, but also enables one to derive transferable molecular orbitals strictly localized on atoms, bonds or functional groups. In future, we expect to use XC-ELMOs to predict materials properties of large systems, currently challenging to calculate from first-principles, such as macromolecules or polymers. Here, we point out advantages, needs and pitfalls of the technique. This work fulfils, at least partially, the prerequisites to understand materials properties of organic and metal-organic materials from the perspective of the electron density distribution of their building blocks. Empirical or semi-empirical evaluation of optical or magnetic properties from a preconceived assembling of building blocks could be extremely important for rationally design new materials, a field where accurate but expensive first-principles calculations are generally not used. This research could impact the community in the fields of crystal engineering, supramolecular chemistry and, of course, electron density analysis.

Villefranche MedSeA mesocosm experiment 2013: perturbation studies and field studies

A joint mesocosm experiment took place in February/March 2013 in the bay of Villefranche in France as part of the european MedSeA project. Nine mesocosms (52 m**3) were deployed over a 2 weeks period and 6 different levels of pCO2 and 3 control mesocosms (about 450 µatm), were used, in order to cover the range of pCO2 anticipated for the end of the present century. During this experiment, the potential effects of these perturbations on chemistry, planktonic community composition and dynamics including: eucaryotic and prokaryotic species composition, primary production, nutrient and carbon utilization, calcification, diazotrophic nitrogen fixation, organic matter exudation and composition, micro-layer composition and biogas production were studied by a group of about 25 scientists from 8 institutes and 6 countries. This is one of the first mesocosm experiments conducted in oligotrophic waters. A blog dedicated to this experiment can be viewed at: http://medseavillefranche2013.obs-vlfr.fr.

Stareso MedSeA mesocosm experiment: field and perturbation studies 2012

A joint mesocosm experiment took place in June/July 2012 in Corsica (bay of Calvi, Stareso station;http://www.stareso.com/) as part of the european MedSeA project. Nine mesocosms (52 m**3) were deployed over a 20 days period and 6 different levels of pCO2 and 3 control mesocosms (about 450 µatm), were used, in order to cover the range of pCO2 anticipated for the end of the present century. During this experiment, the potential effects of these perturbations on chemistry, planktonic community composition and dynamics including: eucaryotic and prokaryotic species composition, primary production, nutrient and carbon utilization, calcification, diazotrophic nitrogen fixation, organic matter exudation and composition, micro-layer composition and biogas production were studied by a group of about 25 scientists from 8 institutes and 6 countries. This is one of the first mesocosm experiments conducted in oligotrophic waters. A blog dedicated to this experiment can be viewed at: http://medseastareso2012.wordpress.com/.

Towards the foundation of a global modes concept

A contribution is presented, intended to provide theoretical foundations for the ongoing efforts to employ global instability theory for the analysis of the classic boundary-layer flow, and address the associated issue of appropriate inflow/outflow boundary conditions to close the PDE-based global eigenvalue problem in open flows. Starting from a theoretically clean and numerically simple application, in which results are also known analytically and thus serve as a guidance for the assessment of the performance of the numerical methods employed herein, a sequence of issues is systematically built into the target application, until we arrive at one representative of open systems whose instability is presently addressed by global linear theory applied to open flows, the latter application being neither tractable theoretically nor straightforward to solve by numerical means. Experience gained along the way is documented. It regards quantification of the depar- ture of the numerical solution from the analytical one in the simple problem, the generation of numerical boundary layers at artificially truncated boundaries, no matter how far the latter are placed from the region of highest flow gradients and, ultimately the impracti- cally large number of (direct and adjoint) modes necessary to project an arbitrary initial perturbation and follow its temporal evolution by a global analysis approach, a finding which may question the purported robustness reported in the literature of the recovery of optimal perturbations as part of global analyses yielding under-resolved eigenspectra.

Linear instability of orthogonal compressible leading-edge boundary layer flow

Instability analysis of compressible orthogonal swept leading-edge boundary layer flow was performed in the context of BiGlobal linear theory. 1, 2 An algorithm was developed exploiting the sparsity characteristics of the matrix discretizing the PDE-based eigenvalue problem. This allowed use of the MUMPS sparse linear algebra package 3 to obtain a direct solution of the linear systems associated with the Arnoldi iteration. The developed algorithm was then applied to efficiently analyze the effect of compressibility on the stability of the swept leading-edge boundary layer and obtain neutral curves of this flow as a function of the Mach number in the range 0 ≤ Ma ≤ 1. The present numerical results fully confirmed the asymptotic theory results of Theofilis et al. 4 Up to the maximum Mach number value studied, it was found that an increase of this parameter reduces the critical Reynolds number and the range of the unstable spanwise wavenumbers.

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Electron temperature versus laser intensity times wavelength squared: a comparison of theory and experiments

The peak temperature in the corona of plasma ejected by a laser-irradiated slab is discussed in terms of a one-electron-temperature model. Both heat-flux saturation and pulse rise-time effects are considered;the intensity in the rising half of the pulse is approximated by a linear function of time, I(t) = Iot/r. The temperature is found to be proportional to (IQX2)273 and a function of I0X4/r. Above a certain value of I0X4/T, the plasma presents two characteristic temperatures (at saturation and at the critical surface) which can be identified with experimentally observed cold- and hot-electron temperatures. The results are compared with extensive experimental data available for both nd and CO2 lasers, I0(W'cnf2) X2 (/um) starting around 1012. The agreement is good if substantial flux inhibition is assumed (flux-limit factor f = 0.03), and fails for I0X2 above 1O1S. Results for both ablation pressure and mass ablation rate are also given.

Mixed Elements in the Boundary Theory

The development of (static and dynamics)programs with constant and linear elements has shown good behaviour. It seems so natural to combine both advantages so that the results will not be affected by local distortions. This paper will be dedicated to presenting the reserch of mixed elements and the way to solve the over-determination that appears in some cases. Although all the study has been done with the potential theory, its application to elastic problems is straightforward.

The theory of electrostatic probes in strong magnetic fields : Thesis submitted to the Faculty of The Graduate School of the University of Colorado for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Department of Aerospace Engineering Science

A theory is developed of an electrostatic probe in a fully-ionized plasma in the presence of a strong magnetic field. The ratio of electron Larmor radius to probe transverse dimension is assumed to be small. Poisson's equation, together with kinetic equations for ions and electrons are considered. An asymptotic perturbation method of multiple scales is used by considering the characteristic lengths appearing in the problem. The leading behavior of the solution is found. The results obtained appear to apply to weaker fields also, agreeing with the solutions known in the limit of no magnetic field. The range of potentials for wich results are presented is limited. The basic effects produced by the field are a depletion of the plasma near the probe and a non-monotonic potential surrounding the probe. The ion saturation current is not changed but changes appear in both the floating potential Vf and the slope of the current-voltage diagram at Vf. The transition region extends beyond the space potential Vs,at wich point the current is largely reduced. The diagram does not have an exponential form in this region as commonly assumed. There exists saturation in electron collection. The extent to which the plasma is disturbed is determined. A cylindrical probe has no solution because of a logarithmic singularity at infinity. Extensions of the theory are considered.