Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies

The mathematical representation of Brunswik s lens model has been usedextensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct ameta-analysis of studies that covers roughly five decades. Specifically, we analyzestatistics of the lens model equation (Tucker, 1964) associated with 259 different taskenvironments obtained from 78 papers. In short, we find on average fairly high levelsof judgmental achievement and note that people can achieve similar levels of cognitiveperformance in both noisy and predictable environments. Although overall performancevaries little between laboratory and field studies, both differ in terms of components ofperformance and types of environments (numbers of cues and redundancy). An analysisof learning studies reveals that the most effective form of feedback is information aboutthe task. We also analyze empirically when bootstrapping is more likely to occur. Weconclude by indicating shortcomings of the kinds of studies conducted to date, limitationsin the lens model methodology, and possibilities for future research.

Network revenue management with product-specific no-shows

Revenue management practices often include overbooking capacity to account for customerswho make reservations but do not show up. In this paper, we consider the network revenuemanagement problem with no-shows and overbooking, where the show-up probabilities are specificto each product. No-show rates differ significantly by product (for instance, each itinerary andfare combination for an airline) as sale restrictions and the demand characteristics vary byproduct. However, models that consider no-show rates by each individual product are difficultto handle as the state-space in dynamic programming formulations (or the variable space inapproximations) increases significantly. In this paper, we propose a randomized linear program tojointly make the capacity control and overbooking decisions with product-specific no-shows. Weestablish that our formulation gives an upper bound on the optimal expected total profit andour upper bound is tighter than a deterministic linear programming upper bound that appearsin the existing literature. Furthermore, we show that our upper bound is asymptotically tightin a regime where the leg capacities and the expected demand is scaled linearly with the samerate. We also describe how the randomized linear program can be used to obtain a bid price controlpolicy. Computational experiments indicate that our approach is quite fast, able to scale to industrialproblems and can provide significant improvements over standard benchmarks.

Clinical outcome following combination of cutting balloon angioplasty and coronary β-radiation for in-stent restenosis : a report from the RENO registry

RESUME : Actuellement la brachythérapie endovasculaire reste le seul traitement efficace pour la resténose intrastent. Malgré ceci, la limitation majeure de cette technique est la resténose aux extrémités du stent (effet de bord) due à une couverture incomplète par la source radioactive (geographical miss). Le ballon coupant et qui ne glisse pas pourrait limiter le barotraumatisme engendré par la dilatation et qui avec la diminution de la radiation aux extrémités de la source radioactive, est à la base du geographical miss. Cette étude prospective a pour but d'examiner l'efficacité du traitement de la resténose intrastent par la combinaison d'angioplastie avec cutting ballon et β - irradiation. Le registre « Radiation in Europe NOvoste » (RENO) inclut tous les patients traités par β - irradiation coronaire avec le système Beta-CathTM System (Novoste Corporation, Brussels, Belgium) n'ayant pas été inclus dans une autre étude randomisée. Un premier sous-groupe de ces patients (groupe 1, n=166), représente les patients traités par cutting ballon et β - irradiation intra coronaire. Ce groupe a été défini d'une manière prospective et les résultats cliniques à 6 mois ont été comparés par rapport aux autres patients qui ont reçu un traitement par dilatation coronaire conventionnelle et β - irradiation (groupe 2, n=712). A 6 mois de suivi, on a retrouvé une différence significative entre les 2 groupes par rapport à la nécessité d'une nouvelle revascularisation du vaisseau préalablement traité (10,2% de récidive dans le groupe 1 contre 16,6 % dans le groupe 2 , p=0,04). Le nombre d'événements cardiaques majeurs (mortalité, infarctus du myocarde et revascularisation) a également été diminué de manière significative (10,8% contre 19,2% ; />=0,01). Cette observation a été confirmée par une analyse multivariée qui indique un risque diminué pour les événements cardiaques majeurs à 6 mois, (rapport de côtes : 0,49 ; intervalle de confiance 0,27-0,88 ; p=0,02). Comparé à l'angioplastie coronarienne avec ballon conventionnel, l'utilisation de cutting ballon avant la β - irradiation dans le traitement de la resténose intrastent démontre une meilleure évolution clinique à 6 mois. ABSTRACT: At present, vascular brachytherapy is the only efficient therapy for in-stent restenosis. Nevertheless edge restenosis often relat¬ed to geographical miss has been identified as a major limitation of the technique. The non-slippery cutting balloon has the potential to limit vascular barotraumas which, together with low-dose irradiation at both ends of the radioactive source, are the prerequisite for geographical miss. This prospective study aimed to examine the efficacy of combining cut¬ting balloon angioplasty and brachytherapy for in-stent restenosis. The Radiation in Europe NOvoste (RENO) registry prospectively tracked all patients who had been treated by coronary β-radiation with the Beta-CathTM System (Novoste Corporation. Brussels, Belgium) but were not included in a randomized radiation trial, A subgroup of patients with in-stent restenosis treated by cutting balloon angioplasty and coronary β-radiation (group 1, n = 166) was prospectively defined, and clinical outcomes of patients at 6 months were compared with those of patients treated by conventional angioplasty and coronary β -radiation (group 2, n = 712). At 6-month follow-up, there was a significant difference between groups 1 and 2 in- target vessel revascularization (10.2% versus 16.6% respectively; p = 0.04) and in the incidence of major adverse clinical events (MACE) including, death, myocardial infarction, and revascularization (10.8% versus 19.2%; p= 0.01). This observation was confirmed by a multivariate analysis indicating a. lower risk for MACE at 6 months (odds ratio: 0.49; confidence intervals: 0.27-0.88; p = 0.02). Compared to conventional angioplasty, cutting balloon angio¬plasty prior to coronary beta-radiation with the Beta-CathTM System seems to improve the 6-month clinical outcome in patients with in-stent restenosis.

Fusion of data sets in multivariate linear regression with errors-in-variables

We consider the application of normal theory methods to the estimation and testing of a general type of multivariate regressionmodels with errors--in--variables, in the case where various data setsare merged into a single analysis and the observable variables deviatepossibly from normality. The various samples to be merged can differ on the set of observable variables available. We show that there is a convenient way to parameterize the model so that, despite the possiblenon--normality of the data, normal--theory methods yield correct inferencesfor the parameters of interest and for the goodness--of--fit test. Thetheory described encompasses both the functional and structural modelcases, and can be implemented using standard software for structuralequations models, such as LISREL, EQS, LISCOMP, among others. An illustration with Monte Carlo data is presented.

Equivalence of piecewise-linear approximation and Lagrangian relaxation for network revenue management

The network revenue management (RM) problem arises in airline, hotel, media,and other industries where the sale products use multiple resources. It can be formulatedas a stochastic dynamic program but the dynamic program is computationallyintractable because of an exponentially large state space, and a number of heuristicshave been proposed to approximate it. Notable amongst these -both for their revenueperformance, as well as their theoretically sound basis- are approximate dynamic programmingmethods that approximate the value function by basis functions (both affinefunctions as well as piecewise-linear functions have been proposed for network RM)and decomposition methods that relax the constraints of the dynamic program to solvesimpler dynamic programs (such as the Lagrangian relaxation methods). In this paperwe show that these two seemingly distinct approaches coincide for the network RMdynamic program, i.e., the piecewise-linear approximation method and the Lagrangianrelaxation method are one and the same.

A new compact linear programming formulation for choice network revenue management

The choice network revenue management model incorporates customer purchase behavioras a function of the offered products, and is the appropriate model for airline and hotel networkrevenue management, dynamic sales of bundles, and dynamic assortment optimization.The optimization problem is a stochastic dynamic program and is intractable. A certainty-equivalencerelaxation of the dynamic program, called the choice deterministic linear program(CDLP) is usually used to generate dyamic controls. Recently, a compact linear programmingformulation of this linear program was given for the multi-segment multinomial-logit (MNL)model of customer choice with non-overlapping consideration sets. Our objective is to obtaina tighter bound than this formulation while retaining the appealing properties of a compactlinear programming representation. To this end, it is natural to consider the affine relaxationof the dynamic program. We first show that the affine relaxation is NP-complete even for asingle-segment MNL model. Nevertheless, by analyzing the affine relaxation we derive a newcompact linear program that approximates the dynamic programming value function betterthan CDLP, provably between the CDLP value and the affine relaxation, and often comingclose to the latter in our numerical experiments. When the segment consideration sets overlap,we show that some strong equalities called product cuts developed for the CDLP remain validfor our new formulation. Finally we perform extensive numerical comparisons on the variousbounds to evaluate their performance.

Asymptotic robustness in multi-sample analysis of multivariate linear relations

Standard methods for the analysis of linear latent variable models oftenrely on the assumption that the vector of observed variables is normallydistributed. This normality assumption (NA) plays a crucial role inassessingoptimality of estimates, in computing standard errors, and in designinganasymptotic chi-square goodness-of-fit test. The asymptotic validity of NAinferences when the data deviates from normality has been calledasymptoticrobustness. In the present paper we extend previous work on asymptoticrobustnessto a general context of multi-sample analysis of linear latent variablemodels,with a latent component of the model allowed to be fixed across(hypothetical)sample replications, and with the asymptotic covariance matrix of thesamplemoments not necessarily finite. We will show that, under certainconditions,the matrix $\Gamma$ of asymptotic variances of the analyzed samplemomentscan be substituted by a matrix $\Omega$ that is a function only of thecross-product moments of the observed variables. The main advantage of thisis thatinferences based on $\Omega$ are readily available in standard softwareforcovariance structure analysis, and do not require to compute samplefourth-order moments. An illustration with simulated data in the context ofregressionwith errors in variables will be presented.

Finite sample nonparametric tests for linear regressions

We introduce several exact nonparametric tests for finite sample multivariatelinear regressions, and compare their powers. This fills an important gap inthe literature where the only known nonparametric tests are either asymptotic,or assume one covariate only.

A new approach to accurate measurement of uniaxial joint angles based on a combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes.

A new method of measuring joint angle using a combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes is presented. The method proposes a minimal sensor configuration with one sensor module mounted on each segment. The model is based on estimating the acceleration of the joint center of rotation by placing a pair of virtual sensors on the adjacent segments at the center of rotation. In the proposed technique, joint angles are found without the need for integration, so absolute angles can be obtained which are free from any source of drift. The model considers anatomical aspects and is personalized for each subject prior to each measurement. The method was validated by measuring knee flexion-extension angles of eight subjects, walking at three different speeds, and comparing the results with a reference motion measurement system. The results are very close to those of the reference system presenting very small errors (rms = 1.3, mean = 0.2, SD = 1.1 deg) and excellent correlation coefficients (0.997). The algorithm is able to provide joint angles in real-time, and ready for use in gait analysis. Technically, the system is portable, easily mountable, and can be used for long term monitoring without hindrance to natural activities.

A new combination in Brachygasterina Macquart (Diptera, Muscidae)

A new combination is proposed: Brachygasterina valdiviensis (Pamplona & Couri, 2000) comb. nov., formerly in Palpibracus Rondani, 1863. Its affinities with a closely related species B. violaceiventris Macquart, 1851 are discussed.

Analgesic efficacy of intravenous perfusion of lidocaine, ketamine or a combination after laparotomy in a placebo-controlled, randomized, double-blind prospective study

In acute postoperative pain management intravenous lidocaine and/or ketamine have been advocated because of their morphine-sparing effect. The goal of this prospective, randomised, double-blind study was to assess morphine consumption with different regimens of intravenous infusion of lidocaine, ketamine or both during 48 hours following laparotomy. Patients were randomised into four groups. Group L, K, and KL received intravenous lidocaine, ketamine or a combination, respectively, before incision and during 48 hours postoperatively. The control group (C) received a similar volume of saline bolus and infusion. Postoperative analgesia included morphine delivered by a patient-controlled analgesia device. Primary outcome was the cumulative morphine consumption and pain, sedation scores, pressure algometry and side effects were our secondary outcomes. Cognition and psychomotor performance were also tested. Out of 57 eligible patients, 44 completed the study. Lidocaine reduced the cumulative morphine consumption compared with the control group (mean 0.456 mg.kg-1 +/- 0.244 (SD) versus 0.705 +/- 0.442, respectively, Ρ < 0.001). Pain scores during movement were statistically lower in all three treatment groups. Psychometric tests showed that the lidocaine group expressed more depressed feelings and sadness compared to the control group. Lidocaine administration had a morphine-sparing effect with a 36% reduction of morphine consumption while ketamine alone or combined with lidocaine did not. As a whole, our results suggest that intravenous lidocaine may offer advantages for postoperative analgesia. We propose lidocaine as a new alternative for pain control that needs to be studied further in future multicentric studies.

Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.