Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10-15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial non-volant small mammals in agro-silvicultural landscapes of Southeastern Brazil

The area covered by Eucalyptus plantations is significantly increasing in Brazil for economic reasons. However, the impact of such land use change is still unknown. In this study we evaluated the spatial-temporal distribution and abundance of terrestrial non-volant small mammals on a recently converted landscape whose matrix is formed by Eucalyptus plantations up to 3 years of age. From August 2007 to July 2009 we carried out monthly sampling campaigns over a grid of 30 sampling units, formed by pitfall traps covering both the landscape matrix of Eucalyptus plantations (n = 18) and legal conservation areas of native vegetation (n = 7) and abandoned pastures (n = 5). A total of 1640 individuals from 14 species of the orders Didelphimorphia (4 spp.) and Rodentia (10 spp.) were captured. However, only three species of rodents (Olygorysomys flavescens, Oligoryzomys nigripes and Calomy tener) represented 81.8% of the total amount. Eucalyptus plantations had a lower species richness and abundance than the abandoned pasture and the remaining fragments of native vegetation. Although the present species are predominantly generalists, there is clear distinction among environments in terms of their species composition and relative abundance, which also present a pronounced time variation. The assemblage found in this study suggests that silvicultural landscapes still have some conservation value, with species that seem to be resident at the Eucalyptus plantations. Moreover, the presence of the native and abandoned pastures patches imbibed in the Eucalyptus plantation matrix may increase the carrying capacity of such a silvicultural system and these landscapes may play a role in maintaining local biodiversity. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population size of threatened and endemic birds of the Cerrado in Estacao Ecologica de Itirapina, a fragmented area in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The pressures for land use change have led to an increasing isolation of habitat remnants throughout the world. The goal of this study was to estimate the population size and density of some endemic and threatened species in a nature reserve in the Cerrado biome. One hundred and thirty four point transects were undertaken at the Estacao Ecologica de Itirapina (EEI), one of the last natural grassland savannah remnants in Sao Paulo state, in the south-east of Brazil between September and December 2006 and densities estimated for seven species (four endemic to the Cerrado, one near-endemic and two grassland specialists). Neither species reached the minimum viable population size of 500-5000 individuals. Four species, White-banded Tanager, White-rumped Tanager, Black-throated Saltator and Sharp-tailed Tyrant have populations ranging from 112 to 248 individuals, while the other species have a low population (< 60 individuals). The mean densities of Sharp-tailed Tyrant and Cock-tailed Tyrant in the EEI grassland showed similar values to those observed in larger areas of the Cerrado, which may indicate that the EEL grassland area is well conserved. In spite of the restricted size of the EEI, small areas can maintain some endemic and threatened bird populations, thus contributing to local biodiversity and the ecological processes in the region. The capacity of fragments of Cerrado (similar to 2,000 ha) to maintain populations of endemic and threatened bird species is unlikely to be effective in the long term.

Paleolimnologically inferred eutrophication of a shallow, tropical, urban reservoir in southeast Brazil

We studied the eutrophication history of a tropical shallow reservoir in the So Paulo metropolitan region, southeast Brazil. We analyzed grain size, geochemistry, diatom assemblages, and land-use records in a sediment core from the reservoir to infer its trophic state history during the last similar to 110 years (1894-2005). Eighty diatom species were observed in the core and shifts in the relative abundances of planktonic and benthic taxa indicate major limnological changes associated with complex interactions between hydrologic factors and eutrophication. Discostella stelligera was associated with deforestation and water physical changes whereas Aulacoseira granulata, a species abundant throughout the core, was mostly associated with high flux conditions and erosion events, regardless of trophic state. Eutrophication was triggered by construction of the city zoo (1958) and installation of the So Paulo State Department of Agriculture (1975) within the Gar double dagger as watershed, and increasing loads of untreated sewage from these institutions. The data suggest that deterioration in water quality began after similar to 1975 and markedly accelerated after similar to 1990. The reservoir has been hypereutrophic since 1999. Steady increases in geochemical proxies for trophic state, along with a decrease in C/N ratios, indicated higher nutrient concentrations and the prevalence of autochthonous production towards the core top. Appearance of Achnanthidium catenatum similar to 1993 highlighted the onset of a marked eutrophication phase. The subsequent dominance of Planothidium rostratum and Cyclotella meneghiniana suggested a sharp shift to a hypereutrophic state since 1999. Land-use history proved valuable for validating the chronology and interpreting anthropogenic impacts. Multi-proxy analysis of the sediment record provided an effective tool for tracking ecological shifts in the reservoir ecosystem. This study provides the first reconstruction of lake eutrophication history in Brazil and highlights the importance of hydrological/physical changes as drivers of diatom assemblage shifts in reservoirs, which may confound trophic state inferences based on shifts in the planktonic/benthic diatom ratio.

Estoques de carbono e nitrogênio no solo cultivado com mamona na Caatinga

Grande parte da produção brasileira de mamona encontra-se no Nordeste, como opção de cultura para a região semiárida no bioma Caatinga. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar as alterações nos estoques de C e N devido à mudança de uso do solo de vegetação natural para o cultivo de mamona no bioma Caatinga. Este trabalho foi realizado na Fazenda Floresta, no município de Irecê, no centro-norte baiano. O clima da região é do tipo BSwh (Köppen) - clima semiárido de altitude. O solo foi classificado em Latossolo Vermelho de textura argilosa. As situações avaliadas foram: três áreas cultivadas com mamona com diferentes tempos de implantação: (i) com 10 anos, (ii) com 20 anos e (iii) com 50 anos; e uma área de referência (vegetação nativa de Caatinga) contígua às situações avaliadas. Os estoques de C e N foram determinados em amostras de solo coletadas em cinco minitrincheiras, nas camadas de 0-5, 5-10, 10-20 e 20-30 cm. Os resultados mostraram que o constante aporte de resíduos vegetais na Caatinga promoveu a manutenção dos estoques de C (90 Mg ha-1) e N (10 Mg ha-1) para a camada de 0-30 cm. A mudança de uso da terra para o cultivo da mamona ocasiona redução em aproximadamente 50 % nos estoques de C e N do solo em relação à vegetação nativa nos primeiros 10 anos de implantação da cultura. A meia-vida da matéria orgânica do solo (MOS) calculada para essa situação na região do semiárido foi de 4,7 anos. O fator de emissão de C do solo, devido à mudança de uso da terra após 20 anos, conforme proposto pelo método do IPCC (2006), foi de 2,47 Mg C ano-1. Por meio do conjunto dos resultados, observa-se a fragilidade do solo do bioma Caatinga no que se refere à perda de MOS devido à mudança de uso da terra.

Comparing properties of natural biogenic with biomass burning particles in Amazonia.

The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a long-term (20 years) research effort aimed at the understanding of the functioning of the Amazonian ecosystem. The strong biosphere-atmosphere interaction is a key component of the ecosystem functioning. Two aerosol components are the most visible: The natural biogenic emissions of particles and VOCs, and the biomass burning emissions. Two aerosol and trace gases monitoring stations were operated for 4 years in Manaus and Porto Velho, two very distinct sites, with different land use change. Manaus is a very clean and pristine site and Porto Velho is representative of heavy land use change in Amazonia. Aerosol composition, optical properties, size distribution, vertical profiling and optical depth were measured from 2008 to 2012. Aerosol radiative forcing was calculated over large areas. It was observed that the natural biogenic aerosol has significant absorption properties. Organic aerosol dominates the aerosol mass with 80 to 95%. Light scattering and light absorption shows an increase by factor of 10 from Manaus to Porto Velho. Very few new particle formation events were observed. Strong links between aerosols and VOC emissions were observed. Aerosol radiative forcing in Rondonia shows a high -15 watts/m² during the dry season of 2010, showing the large impacts of aerosol loading in the Amazonian ecosystem. The increase in diffuse radiation changes the forest carbon uptake by 20 to 35%, a large increase in this important ecosystem.

Environmental Assessment of the Agricultural Sector

One of the main problems recognized in sustainable development goals and sustainable agricultural objectives is Climate change. Farming contributes significantly to the overall Greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, which is approximately 10-12 percent of total GHG emissions, but when taking in consideration also land-use change, including deforestation driven by agricultural expansion for food, fiber and fuel the number rises to approximately 30 percent (Smith et. al., 2007). There are two distinct methodological approaches for environmental impact assessment; Life Cycle Assessment (a bottom up approach) and Input-Output Analysis (a top down approach). The two methodologies differ significantly but there is not an immediate choice between them if the scope of the study is on a sectorial level. Instead, as an alternative, hybrid approaches which combine these two approaches have emerged. The aim of this study is to analyze in a greater detail the agricultural sectors contribution to Climate change caused by the consumption of food products. Hence, to identify the food products that have the greatest impact through their life cycle, identifying their hotspots and evaluating the mitigation possibilities for the same. At the same time evaluating methodological possibilities and models to be applied for this purpose both on a EU level and on a country level (Italy).

Soil organic carbon dynamics under perennial energy crops

The European renewable energy directive 2009/28/EC (E.C. 2009) provides a legislative framework for reducing GHG emissions by 20%, while achieving a 20% share of energy from renewable sources by 2020. Perennial energy crops could significantly contribute to limit GHG emissions through replacing equivalent fossil fuels and by sequestering a considerable amount of carbon into the soil through the large amounts of belowground biomass produced. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of land use change that perennial energy crops have on croplands (switchgrass) and marginal grasslands (miscanthus). For that purpose above and belowground biomass, SOC variation and Net Ecosystem Exchange were evaluated after five years of growth. At aboveground level both crops produced high biomass under cropland conditions as well as under marginal soils. At belowground level they also produced large amounts of biomass, but no significant influences on SOC in the upper layer (0-30 cm) were found. This is probably because of the "priming effect" that caused fast carbon substitution. In switchgrass only it was found a significant SOC increase in deeper layers (30-60 cm), while in the whole soil profile (0-60 cm) SOC increased from 42 to 51 ha-1. However, the short experimental periods (for both switchgrass and miscanthus), in which land use change was evaluated, do not permit to determine the real capacity of perennial energy crops to accumulate SOC. In conclusion the large amounts of belowground biomass enhanced the SOC dynamic through the priming effect resulting in increased SOC in cropland but not in marginal grassland.

Impact of Holocene climate changes on alpine and treeline vegetation at Sanetsch Pass, Bernese Alps, Switzerland

In order to infer reactions of treeline and alpine vegetation to climatic change, past vegetation changes are reconstructed on the basis of pollen, macrofossil and charcoal analysis. The sampled sediment cores originate from the small pond Emines, located at the Sanetsch Pass (connecting the Valais and Bern, Switzerland) at an altitude of 2288 m a.s.l. Today's treeline is at ca. 2200 m a.s.l. in the area, though due to special pass (saddle) conditions it is locally depressed to ca. 2060 m a.s.l. Our results reveal that the area around Emines was covered by treeless alpine vegetation during most of the past 12,000 years. Single individuals of Betula, Larix decidua and possibly Pinus cembra occurred during the Holocene. Major centennial to millennial-scale responses of treeline vegetation to climatic changes are evident. However, alpine vegetation composition remained rather stable between 11,500 and 6000 cal. BP, showing that Holocene climatic changes of +/− 1 °C hardly influenced the local vegetation at Emines. The rapid warming of 3–4 °C at the Late Glacial/Holocene transition (11,600 cal. BP) caused significant altitudinal displacements of alpine species that were additionally affected by the rapid upward movement of trees and shrubs. Since the beginning of the Neolithic, vegetation changes at Sanetsch Pass resulted from a combination of climate change and human impact. Anthropogenic fire increase and land-use change combined with a natural change from subcontinental to more oceanic climate during the second half of the Holocene led to the disappearance of P. cembra in the study area, but favoured the occurrence of Picea abies and Alnus viridis. The mid- to late-Holocene decline of Abies alba was primarily a consequence of human impact, since this mesic species should have benefitted from a shift to more oceanic conditions. Future alpine vegetation changes will be a function of the amplitude and rapidity of global warming as well as human land use. Our results imply that alpine vegetation at our treeline pass site was never replaced by forests since the last ice-age. This may change in the future if anticipated climate change will induce upslope migration of trees. The results of this study emphasise the necessity of climate change mitigation in order to prevent biodiversity losses as a consequence of unprecedented community and species displacement in response to climatic change.

LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENTS (LCAs) OF PYROLYSIS-BASED GASOLINE AND DIESEL FROM DIFFERENT REGIONAL FEEDSTOCKS: CORN STOVER, SWITCHGRASS, SUGAR CANE BAGASSE, WASTE WOOD, GUINEA GRASS, ALGAE, AND ALBIZIA

Renewable hydrocarbon biofuels are being investigated as possible alternatives to conventional liquid transportation fossil fuels like gasoline, kerosene (aviation fuel), and diesel. A diverse range of biomass feedstocks such as corn stover, sugarcane bagasse, switchgrass, waste wood, and algae, are being evaluated as candidates for pyrolysis and catalytic upgrading to produce drop-in hydrocarbon fuels. This research has developed preliminary life cycle assessments (LCA) for each feedstock-specific pathway and compared the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the hydrocarbon biofuels to current fossil fuels. As a comprehensive study, this analysis attempts to account for all of the GHG emissions associated with each feedstock pathway through the entire life cycle. Emissions from all stages including feedstock production, land use change, pyrolysis, stabilizing the pyrolysis oil for transport and storage, and upgrading the stabilized pyrolysis oil to a hydrocarbon fuel are included. In addition to GHG emissions, the energy requirements and water use have been evaluated over the entire life cycle. The goal of this research is to help understand the relative advantages and disadvantages of the feedstocks and the resultant hydrocarbon biofuels based on three environmental indicators; GHG emissions, energy demand, and water utilization. Results indicate that liquid hydrocarbon biofuels produced through this pyrolysis-based pathway can achieve greenhouse gas emission savings of greater than 50% compared to petroleum fuels, thus potentially qualifying these biofuels under the US EPA RFS2 program. GHG emissions from biofuels ranged from 10.7-74.3 g/MJ from biofuels derived from sugarcane bagasse and wild algae at the extremes of this range, respectively. The cumulative energy demand (CED) shows that energy in every biofuel process is primarily from renewable biomass and the remaining energy demand is mostly from fossil fuels. The CED for biofuel range from 1.25-3.25 MJ/MJ from biofuels derived from sugarcane bagasse to wild algae respectively, while the other feedstock-derived biofuels are around 2 MJ/MJ. Water utilization is primarily from cooling water use during the pyrolysis stage if irrigation is not used during the feedstock production stage. Water use ranges from 1.7 - 17.2 gallons of water per kg of biofuel from sugarcane bagasse to open pond algae, respectively.

Biochemical Conversions of Lignocellulosic Biomass for Sustainable Fuel-Ethanol Production in the Upper Midwest

Biofuels are an increasingly important component of worldwide energy supply. This research aims to understand the pathways and impacts of biofuels production, and to improve these processes to make them more efficient. In Chapter 2, a life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented for cellulosic ethanol production from five potential feedstocks of regional importance to the upper Midwest - hybrid poplar, hybrid willow, switchgrass, diverse prairie grasses, and logging residues - according to the requirements of Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Direct land use change emissions are included for the conversion of abandoned agricultural land to feedstock production, and computer models of the conversion process are used in order to determine the effect of varying biomass composition on overall life cycle impacts. All scenarios analyzed here result in greater than 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to petroleum gasoline. Land use change effects were found to contribute significantly to the overall emissions for the first 20 years after plantation establishment. Chapter 3 is an investigation of the effects of biomass mixtures on overall sugar recovery from the combined processes of dilute acid pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Biomass mixtures studied were aspen, a hardwood species well suited to biochemical processing; balsam, a high-lignin softwood species, and switchgrass, an herbaceous energy crop with high ash content. A matrix of three different dilute acid pretreatment severities and three different enzyme loading levels was used to characterize interactions between pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Maximum glucose yield for any species was 70% oftheoretical for switchgrass, and maximum xylose yield was 99.7% of theoretical for aspen. Supplemental β-glucosidase increased glucose yield from enzymatic hydrolysis by an average of 15%, and total sugar recoveries for mixtures could be predicted to within 4% by linear interpolation of the pure species results. Chapter 4 is an evaluation of the potential for producing Trichoderma reesei cellulose hydrolases in the Kluyveromyces lactis yeast expression system. The exoglucanases Cel6A and Cel7A, and the endoglucanase Cel7B were inserted separately into the K. lactis and the enzymes were analyzed for activity on various substrates. Recombinant Cel7B was found to be active on carboxymethyl cellulose and Avicel powdered cellulose substrates. Recombinant Cel6A was also found to be active on Avicel. Recombinant Cel7A was produced, but no enzymatic activity was detected on any substrate. Chapter 5 presents a new method for enzyme improvement studies using enzyme co-expression and yeast growth rate measurements as a potential high-throughput expression and screening system in K. lactis yeast. Two different K. lactis strains were evaluated for their usefulness in growth screening studies, one wild-type strain and one strain which has had the main galactose metabolic pathway disabled. Sequential transformation and co-expression of the exoglucanase Cel6A and endoglucanase Cel7B was performed, and improved hydrolysis rates on Avicel were detectable in the cell culture supernatant. Future work should focus on hydrolysis of natural substrates, developing the growth screening method, and utilizing the K. lactis expression system for directed evolution of enzymes.

Effects of forest management on the diversity of deadwood-inhabiting fungi in Central European forests

Land use and land use change affect deadwood amount, quality and associated biodiversity in forest ecosystems. Old growth or virgin forests, which are exceptionally rare in temperate Europe harbor more deadwood and associated fungal species than managed forests. Whether and how more recent abandonment of management, to reestablish more natural forests, affects deadwood amount and fungal diversity on deadwood is unknown. Our main aim was to compare deadwood amount, characteristics and deadwood inhabiting fungi in differently managed forest types typical for large areas of Central Europe. We sampled deadwood inhabiting fungi on 27 forest plots of 400 m2 each in three geographically distant regions in Germany. Three forest management types, namely managed coniferous, managed deciduous and unmanaged deciduous forests, were represented by nine plots each. In autumn 2008 we collected all fungal fruiting bodies on deadwood >7 cm of diameter. We found deadwood amounts and fungal species numbers in unmanaged forests to be lower than in managed forests, which we attributed to the lack of natural tree death during the short time since management abandonment of usually 10–30 years. However, rarefaction analysis among deadwood items in forest plots indicated a slightly higher species density in unmanaged forests, which may be the first signal of a positive effect on fungal species richness on deadwood after management was abandoned. Although the three study regions span a large geographical gradient, we did not detect differences in the fungal species composition or in deadwood amounts and patterns, which reflects the wide distribution of this group of organisms and points to consistent management procedures among study regions. A very clear composition difference however occurred between deciduous and coniferous wood showing species substrate specialization. We conclude that the amount of deadwood is the main driver of deadwood fungal species richness, and substrate diversity in terms of various decay degrees, deadwood tree species and deadwood size are also important. Thus, to promote species richness of deadwood fungi it is vital to enhance deadwood amounts and diversity

Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands

Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic ‘ark’. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island.

Current Regulating and Supporting Services: Nutrient Cycles

The study forest regulates nutrient cycles as a supporting ecosystem service mainly via retention in the biosphere and the soil organic layer. How tight the nutrient cycles are depends on environmental conditions. In this chapter, we focus on the roles of (1) deposition from the atmosphere, (2) soil moisture regime, and (3) conversion to pasture in the nutrient cycle. Between 1998 and 2010, there were a seasonal deposition of salpetric acid, an episodic deposition of Ca and Mg from Sahara dusts, and a continuous increase in reactive N inputs related to Amazonian forest fires, the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle, and the economic development, respectively. Simultaneously, soils became increasingly drier enhancing nutrient release by mineralization. An increasing number of rain storms could considerably increase the export of N and base metals (K, Ca, Mg) via fast surface-near lateral transport in soil. Land-use change from forest to pasture introduces alkaline ashes and grass-derived organic matter. The resulting increases in soil pH and nutrient and substrate supply increase nutrient cycling rates because of enhanced microbial activity.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.