Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

The first Brazilian municipal initiative of payments for environmental services and its potential for soil conservation

It has become evident that policies aimed at mitigating the growing water resources and water use conflicts in Brazil are crucial. The municipality of Extrema in Minas Gerais state in Brazil pioneered the first Brazilian municipal PES initiative (Conservador das Aguas program), based on the relationship between forests and the benefits they provide. This study aimed to assess soil loss in the Posses sub-basin, where the Conservador das Aguas program began. Additionally, we aimed to determine the potential that this PES initiative has for soil conservation, as well as to minimize the soil losses as a function of forest area size and location in order to propose a technical approach for implementing PES. In this sense, considering the prescribed conservation practices, land use situation, and soil cover in the Posses sub-basin, we analyzed the effectiveness of the Conservador das Aguas program before and after implementation in relation to reduced soil loss under 36 different land use and soil cover scenarios. We used a geographic information system (GIS) for spatializing and producing different information plans and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) for estimating soil loss. As a result, we found that minimization of soil loss may be obtained by adopting pasture conservation practices. Additionally the expected average soil loss in the Posses sub-basin under conditions of land use and soil cover, before and after implementing the water conservation program was 30.63 and 7.06 Mg ha(-1) year(-1), respectively. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinants of bird species richness, endemism, and island network roles in Wallacea and the West Indies: is geography sufficient or does current and historical climate matter?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reforma Agrária em questão: a propriedade privada como fator de desterritorialização camponesa no Assentamento Fazenda Primavera (Andradina-SP)

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

O Moderno no progresso de uma cultura urbana, escolar e religiosa e a Educação Secundária do Instituto Presbiteriano Gammon (1892-1942)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Erosion rates and landscape evolution of the lowlands of the Upper Paraguay river basin (Brazil) from cosmogenic Be-10

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Well-Defined Poly(4-vinylbenzocyclobutene): Synthesis by Living Anionic Polymerization and Characterization

Living anionic polymerization of 4-vinylbenzocylobutene was performed in benzene at room temperature using sec-butyllithium as the initiator. Results of the kinetic studies indicated the termination- and transfer-free nature of the polymerization. Homopolymers with predictable molecular weights and narrow molecular weight distributions were produced, excluding the interference of the cyclobutene rings during initiation and propagation. Thermogravimetric analysis of poly(4-vinylbenzocyclobutene) in air showed a small weight gain at ~200 °C, a rapid decomposition at ~455 °C, and a gradual decomposition at ~566 °C. This behavior was attributed to the formation of radicals from the pendent benzocyclobutene functionality through o-quinodimethane intermediates and simultaneous decomposition/cross-linking reactions at high temperature. The living nature of the polymerization was also examined via sequential copolymerization with butadiene to form diblock copolymers.

Situational and Driver Characteristics Associated With Deervehicle Collisions in Southeastern Michigan

Deer-vehicle collisions (DVCs) create societal impacts throughout the range of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginanus). In Michigan reported DVCs increased by nearly 60% between 1992-2003, with current estimates at more than 65,000 DVCs per year and a mean of $2,300 vehicle damage. To better understand where to direct education and information programs, we used Office of Highway Safety Planning (OHSP) data, 2001-2003, to profile driver characteristics and accident situations of DVCs in Washtenaw, Oakland, and Monroe Counties in Michigan. Each county varies in intensity of land use, human and deer densities, and available deer habitat. Deer density in Washtenaw, Oakland, and Monroe Counties was 49.5, 21.9 and 8.9 per mi2, respectively, and the annual rate of DVCs in these counties was 5.3, 2.6 and 1.8 per 1,000 licensed drivers. Drivers are at particular risk of being involved in DVCs between 6pm- 6am, which includes dawn and dusk commuting hours, and night. Single lane roads and roads with higher posted speed limits provided greater risk to drivers of involvement in a DVC. Middle-aged drivers, particularly males, were at increased risk deer-related collisions. Results from this study will be combined with survey research to determine how best to educate drivers about risk factors that make occurrence of a DVC more likely.

Engineering geological data in support of municipal land use planning-a case study in Analandia, southeast Brazil

This paper presents a method for transforming the information of an engineering geological map into useful information for non-specialists involved in land-use planning. The method consists of classifying the engineering geological units in terms of land use capability and identifying the legal and the geologic restrictions that apply in the study area. Both informations are then superimposed over the land use and a conflict areas map is created. The analysis of these data leads to the identification of existing and forthcoming land use conflicts and enables the proposal of planning measures on a regional and local scale. The map for the regional planning was compiled at a 1:50,000 scale and encompasses the whole municipal land area where uses are mainly rural. The map for the local planning was compiled at a 1:10,000 scale and encompasses the urban area. Most of the classification and operations on maps used spatial analyst tools available in the Geographical Information System. The regional studies showed that the greater part of Analandia's territory presents appropriate land uses. The local-scale studies indicate that the majority of the densely occupied urban areas are in suitable land. Although the situation is in general positive, municipal policies should address the identified and expected land use conflicts, so that it can be further improved.

Influence of land use changes on water chemistry in streams in the State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil

Streamwater is affected by several processes in the watershed including anthropogenic activities that result in changes in water quality as well as in the functioning of these stream ecosystems. Therefore, this work aims to evaluate the concentration of major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, NH4+, NO3-, NO2-, Cl-, SO42-, PO43-, HCO3-) in streams in the state of Sao Paulo (southeast Brazil). The sampling sites are located at undisturbed (ombrophilus dense forest, semideciduous forest and savanna - cerrado) and disturbed areas (pasture, urbanization and sugar cane crops). Streamwater chemistry varied according to land use change and, in general, was higher in disturbed sites. Streams located in undisturbed sites at Ribeira de Iguape/Alto Paranapanema watershed (streams 1, 2 and 3) seem to be regulated by soil characteristics, as the disturbed streams located at the same watershed covered by pasture (stream 7) showed high concentration for the most of the variables. Exception to streams located at Pontal do Paranapanema watershed where both disturbed (stream 8) and undisturbed streams (stream 4 and 5) presented similar patterns for almost all variables measured.

Influence of land use changes on water chemistry in streams in the State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil

Streamwater is affected by several processes in the watershed including anthropogenic activities that result in changes in water quality as well as in the functioning of these stream ecosystems. Therefore, this work aims to evaluate the concentration of major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, NH4+, NO3-, NO2-, Cl-, SO4(2-), PO4(3-), HCO3-) in streams in the state of São Paulo (southeast Brazil). The sampling sites are located at undisturbed (ombrophilus dense forest, semideciduous forest and savanna - cerrado) and disturbed areas (pasture, urbanization and sugar cane crops). Streamwater chemistry varied according to land use change and, in general, was higher in disturbed sites. Streams located in undisturbed sites at Ribeira de Iguape/Alto Paranapanema watershed (streams 1, 2 and 3) seem to be regulated by soil characteristics, as the disturbed streams located at the same watershed covered by pasture (stream 7) showed high concentration for the most of the variables. Exception to streams located at Pontal do Paranapanema watershed where both disturbed (stream 8) and undisturbed streams (stream 4 and 5) presented similar patterns for almost all variables measured.

Einfluss der Landnutzungsänderung auf die Variabilität von Grundwasserneubildungs- und Sickerwasserrate - Qualitative Grundwassergefährdungsabschätzung mit einem GIS -

Ziel der Arbeit ist die Entwicklung eines allgemeingültigen, im mittleren Maßstabsbereich durchgeführten, GIS-Bewertungsverfahrens zur Ermittlung der Grundwasserneubildungsrate unter Berücksichtigung einer langzeitlichen Landnutzungsänderung sowie die Darstellung eines Szenarios zur Grundwassergefährdungsabschätzung für ausgewählte rüstungsspezifi-sche organische Verbindungen. Das Untersuchungsgebiet befindet sich in einem während der beiden Weltkriege stark militär- und rüstungstechnisch genutzten Raum. Die Beurtei-lungsszenarien der Grundwassergefährdung erfolgen rein qualitativ.Die Abhängigkeit der Grundwasserneubildungsrate von der Landnutzungsänderung ist deut-lich zu erkennen. Mit zunehmender Flächenversiegelung, einher gehend mit veränderten Sickerwasserraten und des oberflächennahen Abflusses, reduziert sich die Grundwasser-neubildungsrate deutlich. Die Abschätzung der Grundwassergefährdung für die sprengstofftypischen Verbindungen erfolgt im ersten Schritt emissionsbezogen für die ungesättigte Zone unter Berücksichtigung der Standort- und Bodeneigenschaften und der physikalisch-chemischen Stoffeigenschaften. Im zweiten Schritt erfolgt eine immissionsbezogene Betrachtung der potenziellen Belastun-gen von Trinkwasserbrunnen.Trotz starker Generalisierungseffekte bietet dieser stoffspezifische Bewertungsansatz in Verbindung mit physikalischen Methoden für organische Verbindungen einen guten ersten Überblick über eine potenzielle Gefährdungen des Grundwassers. Die Datenbestände der entwickelten GIS-Anwendung sind leicht erweiterbar, so dass eine Abschätzung der potenzi-ellen Gefährdung auch für andere organische Stoffgruppen sowie auch eine Übertragung auf andere Untersuchungsgebiete möglich ist.

A molecular approach towards tethered bilayer lipid membranes: synthesis and characterization of novel anchor lipids

Tethered bilayer lipid membranes (tBLMs) are a promising model system for the natural cell membrane. They consist of a lipid bilayer that is covalently coupled to a solid support via a spacer group. In this study, we developed a suitable approach to increase the submembrane space in tBLMs. The challenge is to create a membrane with a lower lipid density in order to increase the membrane fluidity, but to avoid defects that might appear due to an increase in the lateral space within the tethered monolayers. Therefore, various synthetic strategies and different monolayer preparation techniques were examined. Synthetical attempts to achieve a large ion reservoir were made in two directions: increasing the spacer length of the tether lipids and increasing the lateral distribution of the lipids in the monolayer. The first resulted in the synthesis of a small library of tether lipids (DPTT, DPHT and DPOT) characterized by 1H and 13C NMR, FD-MS, ATR, DSC and TGA. The synthetic strategy for their preparation includes synthesis of precursor with a double bond anchor that can be easily modified for different substrates (e.g. metal and metaloxide). Here, the double bond was modified into a thiol group suitable for gold surface. Another approach towards the preparation of homogeneous monolayers with decreased two-dimensional packing density was the synthesis of two novel anchor lipids: DPHDL and DDPTT. DPHDL is “self-diluted” tether lipid containing two lipoic anchor moieties. DDPTT has an extended lipophylic part that should lead to the preparation of diluted, leakage free proximal layers that will facilitate the completion of the bilayer. Our tool-box of tether lipids was completed with two fluorescent labeled lipid precursors with respectively one and two phytanyl chains in the hydrophobic region and a dansyl group as a fluorophore. The use of such fluorescently marked lipids is supposed to give additional information for the lipid distribution on the air-water interface. The Langmuir film balance was used to investigate the monolayer properties of four of the synthesized thiolated anchor lipids. The packing density and mixing behaviour were examined. The results have shown that mixing anchor with free lipids can homogeneously dilute the anchor lipid monolayers. Moreover, an increase in the hydrophylicity (PEG chain length) of the anchor lipids leads to a higher packing density. A decrease in the temperature results in a similar trend. However, increasing the number of phytanyl chains per lipid molecule is shown to decrease the packing density. LB-monolayers based on pure and mixed lipids in different ratio and transfer pressure were tested to form tBLMs with diluted inner layers. A combination of the LB-monolayer transfer with the solvent exchange method accomplished successfully the formation of tBLMs based on pure DPOT. Some preliminary investigations of the electrical sealing properties and protein incorporation of self-assembled DPOT and DDPTT-based tBLMs were conducted. The bilayer formation performed by solvent exchange resulted in membranes with high resistances and low capacitances. The appearance of space beneath the membrane is clearly visible in the impedance spectra expressed by a second RC element. The latter brings the conclusion that the longer spacer in DPOT and the bigger lateral space between the DDPTT molecules in the investigated systems essentially influence the electrical parameters of the membrane. Finally, we could show the functional incorporation of the small ion carrier valinomycin in both types of membranes.

Assessment of marine litter in the Western Adriatic Sea and its impact on marine biota

Due to its environmental, safety, health and socio-economic impacts, marine litter has been recognized as a 21st century global challenge, so that it has been included in Descriptor 10 of the EU MSFD. For its morphological features and anthropogenic pressures, the Adriatic Sea is very sensitive to the accumulation of debris, but data are inconsistent and fragmented. This thesis, in the framework of DeFishGear project, intents to assess marine litter on beaches and on seafloor in the Western Adriatic sea, and test if debris ingestion by fish occurs. Three beaches were sampled during two surveys in 2015. Benthic litter monitoring was carried out in the FAO GSA17 during fall 2014, using a rapido trawl. Litter ingestion was investigated through gut contents analysis of 260 fish belonging to 8 commercial species collected in Western Gulf of Venice. Average litter density on beaches was 1.5 items/m2 during spring, and decreased to 0.8 items/m2 in summer. Litter composition was heterogeneous and varied among sites, even if no significant differences were found. Most of debris consisted of plastic sheets, fragments, polystyrene pieces, mussels nets and cottons bud sticks, showing that sources are many and include aquaculture, land-based activities and local users of beaches. Average density of benthic litter was 913 items/Km2 (82 Kg/Km2). Plastic dominated in terms of numbers and weight, and consisted mainly of bags, sheets and mussel nets. The highest density was found close to the coast, and sources driving the major differences in litter distribution were mussel farms and shipping lanes. Litter ingestion occurred in 47% of examined fish, mainly consisting of fibers. Among species, S. pilchardus swallowed almost all debris categories. Findinds may provide a baseline to set the necessary measures to manage and minimize marine litter in the Western Adriatic region and to protect aquatic life from plastic pollution, even accounting the possible implications on human health.

Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks

The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need for methods such as the REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is demonstrated to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/land-cover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. This will achieve a robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs "grassland" and "agricultural land" at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions.