Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Coastal plant growth and CO2 enrichment: Can the productivity of black needle rush keep pace with sea level rise?

The rate of sea level change has varied considerably over geological time, with rapid increases (0.25 cm yr-1) at the end of the last ice age to more modest increases over the last 4,000 years (0.04 cm yr-1; Hendry 1993). Due to anthropogenic contributions to climate change, however, the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase between 0.10 and 0.25 cm year-1 for many coastal areas (Warrick et al. 1996). Notwithstanding, it has been predicted that over the next 100 years, sea levels along the northeastern coast of North Carolina may increase by an astonishing 0.8 m (0.8 cm yr-1); through a combination of sea-level rise and coastal subsidence (Titus and Richman 2001; Parham et al. 2006). As North Carolina ranks third in the United States with land at or just above sea level, any additional sea rise may promote further deterioration of vital coastal wetland systems. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Seismic structure above and below the core-mantle boundary

Seismic structure above and below the core-mantle boundary (CMB) has been studied through use of travel time and waveform analyses of several different seismic wave groups. Anomalous systematic trends in observables document mantle heterogeneity on both large and small scales. Analog and digital data has been utilized, and in many cases the analog data has been optically scanned and digitized prior to analysis.

Differential travel times of S - SKS are shown to be an excellent diagnostic of anomalous lower mantle shear velocity (V s) structure. Wavepath geometries beneath the central Pacific exhibit large S- SKS travel time residuals (up to 10 sec), and are consistent with a large scale 0(1000 km) slower than average V_s region (≥3%). S - SKS times for paths traversing this region exhibit smaller scale patterns and trends 0(100 km) indicating V_s perturbations on many scale lengths. These times are compared to predictions of three tomographically derived aspherical models: MDLSH of Tanimoto [1990], model SH12_WM13 of Suet al. [1992], and model SH.10c.17 of Masters et al. [1992]. Qualitative agreement between the tomographic model predictions and observations is encouraging, varying from fair to good. However, inconsistencies are present and suggest anomalies in the lower mantle of scale length smaller than the present 2000+ km scale resolution of tomographic models. 2-D wave propagation experiments show the importance of inhomogeneous raypaths when considering lateral heterogeneities in the lowermost mantle.

A dataset of waveforms and differential travel times of S, ScS, and the arrival from the D" layer, Scd, provides evidence for a laterally varying V_s velocity discontinuity at the base of the mantle. Two different localized D" regions beneath the central Pacific have been investigated. Predictions from a model having a V_s discontinuity 180 km above the CMB agree well with observations for an eastern mid-Pacific CMB region. This thickness differs from V_s discontinuity thicknesses found in other regions, such as a localized region beneath the western Pacific, which average near 280 km. The "sharpness" of the V_s jump at the top of D", i.e., the depth range over which the V_s increase occurs, is not resolved by our data, and our data can in fact may be modeled equally well by a lower mantle with the increase in V_s at the top of D" occurring over a 100 krn depth range. It is difficult at present to correlate D" thicknesses from this study to overall lower mantle heterogeneity, due to uncertainties in the 3-D models, as well as poor coverage in maps of D" discontinuity thicknesses.

P-wave velocity structure (V_p) at the base of the mantle is explored using the seismic phases SKS and SPdKS. SPdKS is formed when SKS waves at distances around 107° are incident upon the CMB with a slowness that allows for coupling with diffracted P-waves at the base of the mantle. The P-wave diffraction occurs at both the SKS entrance and exit locations of the outer core. SP_dKS arrives slightly later in time than SKS, having a wave path through the mantle and core very close to SKS. The difference time between SKS and SP_dKS strongly depends on V_p at the base of the mantle near SK Score entrance and exit points. Observations from deep focus Fiji-Tonga events recorded by North American stations, and South American events recorded by European and Eurasian stations exhibit anomalously large SP_dKS - SKS difference times. SKS and the later arriving SP_dKS phase are separated by several seconds more than predictions made by 1-D reference models, such as the global average PREM [Dziewonski and Anderson, 1981] model. Models having a pronounced low-velocity zone (5%) in V_p in the bottom 50-100 km of the mantle predict the size of the observed SP_dK S-SKS anomalies. Raypath perturbations from lower mantle V_s structure may also be contributing to the observed anomalies.

Outer core structure is investigated using the family of SmKS (m=2,3,4) seismic waves. SmKS are waves that travel as S-waves in the mantle, P-waves in the core, and reflect (m-1) times on the underside of the CMB, and are well-suited for constraining outermost core V_p structure. This is due to closeness of the mantle paths and also the shallow depth range these waves travel in the outermost core. S3KS - S2KS and S4KS - S3KS differential travel times were measured using the cross-correlation method and compared to those from reflectivity synthetics created from core models of past studies. High quality recordings from a deep focus Java Sea event which sample the outer core beneath the northern Pacific, the Arctic, and northwestern North America (spanning 1/8th of the core's surface area), have SmKS wavepaths that traverse regions where lower mantle heterogeneity is pre- dieted small, and are well-modeled by the PREM core model, with possibly a small V_p decrease (1.5%) in the outermost 50 km of the core. Such a reduction implies chemical stratification in this 50 km zone, though this model feature is not uniquely resolved. Data having wave paths through areas of known D" heterogeneity (±2% and greater), such as the source-side of SmKS lower mantle paths from Fiji-Tonga to Eurasia and Africa, exhibit systematic SmKS differential time anomalies of up to several seconds. 2-D wave propagation experiments demonstrate how large scale lower mantle velocity perturbations can explain long wavelength behavior of such anomalous SmKS times. When improperly accounted for, lower mantle heterogeneity maps directly into core structure. Raypaths departing from homogeneity play an important role in producing SmKS anomalies. The existence of outermost core heterogeneity is difficult to resolve at present due to uncertainties in global lower mantle structure. Resolving a one-dimensional chemically stratified outermost core also remains difficult due to the same uncertainties. Restricting study to higher multiples of SmKS (m=2,3,4) can help reduce the affect of mantle heterogeneity due to the closeness of the mantle legs of the wavepaths. SmKS waves are ideal in providing additional information on the details of lower mantle heterogeneity.

Structure of the earth's core and lowermost mantle from seismic PKP waves

This thesis addresses the fine structure, both radial and lateral, of compressional wave velocity and attenuation of the Earth's core and the lowermost mantle using waveforms, differential travel times and amplitudes of PKP waves, which penetrate the Earth's core.

The structure near the inner core boundary (ICB) is studied by analyzing waveforms of a regional sample. The waveform modeling approach is demonstrated to be an effective tool for constrainning the ICB structure. The best model features a sharp velocity jump of 0.78km/s at the ICB and a low velocity gradient at the lowermost outer core (indicating possible inhomogeneity) and high attenuation at the top of the inner core.

A spherically symmetric P-wave model of the core, is proposed from PKP differential times, waveforms and amplitudes. The ICB remains sharp with a velocity jump of 0. 78km/ s. A very low velocity gradient at the base of the fluid core is demonstrated to be a robust feature, indicating inhomogeneity is practically inevitable. The model also indicates that the attenuation in the inner core decreases with depth. The velocity at D" is smaller than PREM.

The inner core is confirmed to be very anisotropic, possessing a cylindrical symmetry around the Earth spin axis with the N-S direction 3% faster than the E-W direction. All of the N-S rays through the inner core were found to be faster than the E-W rays by 1.5 to 3.5s. Exhaustive data selection and efforts in insolating contributions from the region above ensure that this is an inner core feature.

The anisotropy at the very top of the inner core is found to be distinctly different from the deeper part. The top 60km of the inner core is not anisotropic. From 60km to 150km, there appears to be a transition from isotropy to anisotropy.

PKP differential travel times are used to study the P velocity structure in D". Systematic regional variations of up to 2s in AB-DF times were observed, attributed primarily to heterogeneities in the lower 500km of the mantle. However, direct comparisons with tomographic models are not successful.

Formation of X-waves at fundamental and harmonics by infrared femtosecond pulse filamentation in air

We experimentally observe the formation of X-waves at fundamental, third harmonic, and fifth harmonic wavelengths by infrared (central wavelength at similar to 1500 nm) femtosecond laser pulse filamentation in air. By fitting the angularly resolved spectra of the fundamental and harmonic waves using X-wave relations, we confirm that all the X-waves have nearly the same group velocity, indicating that they are locked in space and time during their propagation in filament.

Characterization and developmental regulation of a gene expressed specifically in the skeletogenic lineage of the sea urchin embryo

The sea urchin embryonic skeleton, or spicule, is deposited by mesenchymal progeny of four precursor cells, the micromeres, which are determined to the skeletogenic pathway by a process known as cytoplasmic localization. A gene encoding one of the major products of the skeletogenic mesenchyme, a prominent 50 kD protein of the spicule matrix, has been characterized in detail. cDNA clones were first isolated by antibody screening of a phage expression library, followed by isolation of homologous genomic clones. The gene, known as SM50, is single copy in the sea urchin genome, is divided into two exons of 213 and 1682 bp, and is expressed only in skeletogenic cells. Transcripts are first detectable at the 120 cell stage, shortly after the segregation of the skeletogenic precursors from the rest of the embryo. The SM50 open reading frame begins within the first exon, is 450 amino acids in length, and contains a loosely repeated 13 amino acid motif rich in acidic residues which accounts for 45% of the protein and which is possibly involved in interaction with the mineral phase of the spicule.

The important cis-acting regions of the SM50 gene necessary for proper regulation of expression were identified by gene transfer experiments. A 562 bp promoter fragment, containing 438 bp of 5' promoter sequence and 124 bp of the SM50 first exon (including the SM50 initiation codon), was both necessary and sufficient to direct high levels of expression of the bacterial chloramphenicol acetyltransferase (CAT) reporter gene specifically in the skeletogenic cells. Removal of promoter sequences between positions -2200 and -438, and of transcribed regions downstream of +124 (including the SM50 intron), had no effect on the spatial or transcriptional activity of the transgenes.

Regulatory proteins that interact with the SM50 promoter were identified by the gel retardation assay, using bulk embryo mesenchyme blastula stage nuclear proteins. Five protein binding sites were identified and mapped to various degrees of resolution. Two sites are homologous, may be enhancer elements, and at least one is required for expression. Two additional sites are also present in the promoter of the aboral ectoderm specific cytoskeletal actin gene CyIIIa; one of these is a CCAA T element, the other a putative repressor element. The fifth site overlaps the binding site of the putative repressor and may function as a positive regulator by interfering with binding of the repressor. All of the proteins are detectable in nuclear extracts prepared from 64 cell stage embryos, a stage just before expression of SM50 is initiated, as well as from blastula and gastrula stage; the putative enhancer binding protein may be maternal as well.

Singularities and horizons in the collisions of gravitational waves

This thesis presents a study of the dynamical, nonlinear interaction of colliding gravitational waves, as described by classical general relativity. It is focused mainly on two fundamental questions: First, what is the general structure of the singularities and Killing-Cauchy horizons produced in the collisions of exactly plane-symmetric gravitational waves? Second, under what conditions will the collisions of almost-plane gravitational waves (waves with large but finite transverse sizes) produce singularities?

In the work on the collisions of exactly-plane waves, it is shown that Killing horizons in any plane-symmetric spacetime are unstable against small plane-symmetric perturbations. It is thus concluded that the Killing-Cauchy horizons produced by the collisions of some exactly plane gravitational waves are nongeneric, and that generic initial data for the colliding plane waves always produce "pure" spacetime singularities without such horizons. This conclusion is later proved rigorously (using the full nonlinear theory rather than perturbation theory), in connection with an analysis of the asymptotic singularity structure of a general colliding plane-wave spacetime. This analysis also proves that asymptotically the singularities created by colliding plane waves are of inhomogeneous-Kasner type; the asymptotic Kasner axes and exponents of these singularities in general depend on the spatial coordinate that runs tangentially to the singularity in the non-plane-symmetric direction.

In the work on collisions of almost-plane gravitational waves, first some general properties of single almost-plane gravitational-wave spacetimes are explored. It is shown that, by contrast with an exact plane wave, an almost-plane gravitational wave cannot have a propagation direction that is Killing; i.e., it must diffract and disperse as it propagates. It is also shown that an almost-plane wave cannot be precisely sandwiched between two null wavefronts; i.e., it must leave behind tails in the spacetime region through which it passes. Next, the occurrence of spacetime singularities in the collisions of almost-plane waves is investigated. It is proved that if two colliding, almost-plane gravitational waves are initially exactly plane-symmetric across a central region of sufficiently large but finite transverse dimensions, then their collision produces a spacetime singularity with the same local structure as in the exact-plane-wave collision. Finally, it is shown that a singularity still forms when the central regions are only approximately plane-symmetric initially. Stated more precisely, it is proved that if the colliding almost-plane waves are initially sufficiently close to being exactly plane-symmetric across a bounded central region of sufficiently large transverse dimensions, then their collision necessarily produces spacetime singularities. In this case, nothing is now known about the local and global structures of the singularities.

Time for a Sea Change: a Study of the Effectiveness of Biodiversity Conservation Measures and Marine Protected Areas Along Southern Thailand’s Andaman Sea Coastline

This study examines how Thailand’s biodiversity conservation measures affect fishing communities, especially in the marine protected areas (MPAs) on the Andaman Sea coastline. It documents the various efforts of the local fishing communities to protect the resources in the area. Also included are recommendations for government agencies, civil society and the international community. [PDF contains 94 pages]

Techniques for strength measurement at high pressures and strain-rates using transverse waves

The study of the strength of a material is relevant to a variety of applications including automobile collisions, armor penetration and inertial confinement fusion. Although dynamic behavior of materials at high pressures and strain-rates has been studied extensively using plate impact experiments, the results provide measurements in one direction only. Material behavior that is dependent on strength is unaccounted for. The research in this study proposes two novel configurations to mitigate this problem.

The first configuration introduced is the oblique wedge experiment, which is comprised of a driver material, an angled target of interest and a backing material used to measure in-situ velocities. Upon impact, a shock wave is generated in the driver material. As the shock encounters the angled target, it is reflected back into the driver and transmitted into the target. Due to the angle of obliquity of the incident wave, a transverse wave is generated that allows the target to be subjected to shear while being compressed by the initial longitudinal shock such that the material does not slip. Using numerical simulations, this study shows that a variety of oblique wedge configurations can be used to study the shear response of materials and this can be extended to strength measurement as well. Experiments were performed on an oblique wedge setup with a copper impactor, polymethylmethacrylate driver, aluminum 6061-t6 target, and a lithium fluoride window. Particle velocities were measured using laser interferometry and results agree well with the simulations.

The second novel configuration is the y-cut quartz sandwich design, which uses the anisotropic properties of y-cut quartz to generate a shear wave that is transmitted into a thin sample. By using an anvil material to back the thin sample, particle velocities measured at the rear surface of the backing plate can be implemented to calculate the shear stress in the material and subsequently the strength. Numerical simulations were conducted to show that this configuration has the ability to measure the strength for a variety of materials.

The importance of spin for observing gravitational waves from coalescing compact binaries with LIGO and Virgo

General Relativity predicts the existence of gravitational waves, which carry information about the physical and dynamical properties of their source. One of the many promising sources of gravitational waves observable by ground-based instruments, such as in LIGO and Virgo, is the coalescence of two compact objects (neutron star or black hole). Black holes and neutron stars sometimes form binaries with short orbital periods, radiating so strongly in gravitational waves that they coalesce on astrophysically short timescales. General Relativity gives precise predictions for the form of the signal emitted by these systems. The most recent searches for theses events used waveform models that neglected the effects of black hole and neutron star spin. However, real astrophysical compact objects, especially black holes, are expected to have large spins. We demonstrate here a data analysis infrastructure which achieves an improved sensitivity to spinning compact binaries by the inclusion of spin effects in the template waveforms. This infrastructure is designed for scalable, low-latency data analysis, ideal for rapid electromagnetic followup of gravitational wave events.

The search for gravitational waves from the coalescence of black hole binary systems in data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors. Or: A dark walk through a random forest

The LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories are complex and extremely sensitive strain detectors that can be used to search for a wide variety of gravitational waves from astrophysical and cosmological sources. In this thesis, I motivate the search for the gravitational wave signals from coalescing black hole binary systems with total mass between 25 and 100 solar masses. The mechanisms for formation of such systems are not well-understood, and we do not have many observational constraints on the parameters that guide the formation scenarios. Detection of gravitational waves from such systems — or, in the absence of detection, the tightening of upper limits on the rate of such coalescences — will provide valuable information that can inform the astrophysics of the formation of these systems. I review the search for these systems and place upper limits on the rate of black hole binary coalescences with total mass between 25 and 100 solar masses. I then show how the sensitivity of this search can be improved by up to 40% by the the application of the multivariate statistical classifier known as a random forest of bagged decision trees to more effectively discriminate between signal and non-Gaussian instrumental noise. I also discuss the use of this classifier in the search for the ringdown signal from the merger of two black holes with total mass between 50 and 450 solar masses and present upper limits. I also apply multivariate statistical classifiers to the problem of quantifying the non-Gaussianity of LIGO data. Despite these improvements, no gravitational-wave signals have been detected in LIGO data so far. However, the use of multivariate statistical classification can significantly improve the sensitivity of the Advanced LIGO detectors to such signals.

Chrysosphaerella and the phytoplankton of the Little Sea, Dorset

The Little Sea is an 80-acre, shallow freshwater lake formed about a hundred years ago by sand-dunes cutting off a sea-inlet at Studland Bay, near Swanage. This work presents a general survey of the phytoplankton in the lake from October 1990 to December 1993. Many species were present throughout the year; others showed seasonal variations. Numerically, the diatoms, Monoraphidium and sometimes Rhodomonas, were the main constituents of the phytoplankton. One species of alga in the lake of particular interest is Chrysosphaerella longispina Lauterb. which, up to 1991, had only been recorded from five localities in Britain.