GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long-run (1861-2008): insights from a timeseries approach

The article presents and discusses long-run series of per capita GDP and life expectancy for Italy and Spain (1861-2008). After refining the available estimates in order to make them comparable and with the avail of the most up-to-date researches, the main changes in the international economy and in technological and sociobiological regimes are used as analytical frameworks to re-assess the performances of the two countries; then structural breaks are searched for and Granger causality between the two variables is investigated. The long-run convergence notwithstanding, significant cyclical differences between the two countries can be detected: Spain began to modernize later in GDP, with higher volatility in life expectancy until recent decades; by contrast, Italy showed a more stable pattern of life expectancy, following early breaks in per capita GDP, but also a negative GDP break in the last decades. Our series confirm that, whereas at the early stages of development differences in GDP tend to mirror those in life expectancy, this is no longer true at later stages of development, when, if any, there seems to be a negative correlation between GDP and life expectancy: this finding is in line with the thesis of a non-monotonic relation between life expectancy and GDP and is supported by tests of Granger causality.

Uncertainty, electoral incentives and political myopia

We study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build aframework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectlyobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies withfuture returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability.Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, undersome conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewardscan be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limitto governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised factsand with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better fiscal discipline in a panel of 20 OECDcountries.

How Wages and Employment Adjust to Trade Liberalization: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Austria

We study the response of regional employment and nominal wages to trade liberalization, exploiting the natural experiment provided by the opening of Central and Eastern European markets after the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1990. Using data for Austrian municipalities, we examine di¤erential pre- and post-1990 wage and employment growth rates between regions bordering the formerly communist economies and interior regions. If the 'border regions'are de...ned narrowly, within a band of less than 50 kilometers, we can identify statistically signi...cant liberalization e¤ects on both employment and wages. While wages responded earlier than employment, the employment e¤ect over the entire adjustment period is estimated to be around three times as large as the wage e¤ect. The implied slope of the regional labor supply curve can be replicated in an economic geography model that features obstacles to labor migration due to immobile housing and to heterogeneous locational preferences.

Evaluation of the inhalation technique in asthmatic children visiting a specialised outpatient clinic

Background and objective: Asthma is one of the most frequent chronic diseases affecting children and adolescents. Good compliance is indispensable for effective treatment since a suboptimal use of inhalation devices can result in decreased therapeutic efficacy and increased morbidity. The objective of this work was to evaluate the inhalation technique of paediatric patients visiting a specialized consultation clinic of a university hospital. Design: Observational prospective study during a 3-month period. Setting Specialized consultation clinic of a university hospital. Main outcome measures: This study involved 40 outpatient infants, children and adolescents visiting alone or with their parent(s). Patients' data (age, sex, weight, diagnostic, reason for consulting, previous consultations) and their medicines were compiled using an ad hoc form. Filmed sequences of the inhalation procedure used by each child were reviewed independently by members of an interdisciplinary team consisting in a physician, a pharmacist, a nurse and a physiotherapist. A score of 1 was assigned to each correct step in the procedure, and a score of 0 to an incorrect step. A perfect procedure implied 12 correct steps. Results: Thirty patients were treated with a metered-dose inhaler and an inhalation chamber (Babyhaler or AeroChamber Plus); ten other patients were treated with a dry powder inhaler (Diskus or Turbuhaler). The agreement between the members of the interdisciplinary team was considered satisfactory. Nine patients (22.5%) reached an average score lower than 7, 18 patients (45%) a score between 7 and 10 and 13 (32.5%) a score equal to or better than 10. No patient reached the maximum score of 12. Users of the metered-dose inhalers (average score = 9.2) showed a better technique than users of the dry powder inhalers (average score = 7.4). Disappointingly, the score was not improved during a second consultation or following regular consultations. Conclusions: Video recording is a simple method to evaluate the degree of mastery of an inhalation procedure in paediatric patients. The method allows a convenient and efficient identification of suboptimal procedure steps by the hospital staff, and opens the way to patient-specific teaching. In two-thirds of juvenile patients, their inhalation technique was suboptimal despite initial training. This study shows conclusively that the inhalation technique in paediatric patients must be monitored during each examination, and teaching measures taken to improve it when necessary.

Man-bites-dog business cycles

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it isand this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. In particular, weanalyze the consequences of information structures in which some types of signals are morelikely to be observed after unusual events. Such signals may increase both uncertainty anddisagreement among agents and when embedded in a simple business cycle model, can helpus understand why we observe (i) occasional large changes in macro economic aggregatevariables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals (ii) persistentperiods of high macroeconomic volatility and (iii) a positive correlation between absolutechanges in macro variables and the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations as measuredby survey data. These results are consequences of optimal updating by agents when theavailability of some signals is positively correlated with tail-events. The model is estimatedby likelihood based methods using individual survey responses and a quarterly time seriesof total factor productivity along with standard aggregate time series. The estimated modelsuggests that there have been episodes in recent US history when the impact on outputof innovations to productivity of a given magnitude was more than eight times as largecompared to other times.

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

Introduction This dissertation consists of three essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The first chapter studies the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall capital of the economy. Positive shocks to the capital of the firm increase the size of the firm and reduce the value of growth options. As a result, the firm is burdened with more unproductive capital and its value lowers with respect to the accumulated capital. The optimal consumption policy alters the optimal allocation of resources and affects firm's value, generating mean-reverting dynamics for the M/B ratios. The model (1) captures convergence of price-to-book ratios -negative for growth stocks and positive for value stocks - (firm migration), (2) generates deviations from the classic CAPM in line with the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns and (3) generates a non-monotone relationship between Tobin's q and conditional volatility consistent with the empirical evidence. The second chapter proposes a standard portfolio-choice problem with transaction costs and mean reversion in expected returns. In the presence of transactions costs, no matter how small, arbitrage activity does not necessarily render equal all riskless rates of return. When two such rates follow stochastic processes, it is not optimal immediately to arbitrage out any discrepancy that arises between them. The reason is that immediate arbitrage would induce a definite expenditure of transactions costs whereas, without arbitrage intervention, there exists some, perhaps sufficient, probability that these two interest rates will come back together without any costs having been incurred. Hence, one can surmise that at equilibrium the financial market will permit the coexistence of two riskless rates that are not equal to each other. For analogous reasons, randomly fluctuating expected rates of return on risky assets will be allowed to differ even after correction for risk, leading to important violations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The combination of randomness in expected rates of return and proportional transactions costs is a serious blow to existing frictionless pricing models. Finally, in the last chapter I propose a two-countries two-goods general equilibrium economy with uncertainty about the fundamentals' growth rates to study the joint behavior of equity volatilities and correlation at the business cycle frequency. I assume that dividend growth rates jump from one state to other, while countries' switches are possibly correlated. The model is solved in closed-form and the analytical expressions for stock prices are reported. When calibrated to the empirical data of United States and United Kingdom, the results show that, given the existing degree of synchronization across these business cycles, the model captures quite well the historical patterns of stock return volatilities. Moreover, I can explain the time behavior of the correlation, but exclusively under the assumption of a global business cycle.

Anàlisi del risc del preu dels índex IBEX-35 i DAX-30

En aquest treball es porta a terme l’anàlisi del comportament dels índexs IBEX-35 i DAX-30 en el període comprès entre els anys 2008 – 2012. L’objectiu del treball és analitzar com han evolucionat determinades mesures del risc, com són, la Volatilitat, el VaR i el CVaR en els dos índexs. Aquest anàlisi té la finalitat d’aconseguir evidències del diferent comportament d’aquests índexs en el període analitzat, i així veure el diferent impacte que ha tingut la crisis econòmica actual en l’economia espanyola i alemanya.

The homeostatic psyche: Freudian theory and somatic markers.

After years of reciprocal lack of interest, if not opposition, neuroscience and psychoanalysis are poised for a renewed dialogue. This article discusses some aspects of the Freudian metapsychology and its link with specific biological mechanisms. It highlights in particular how the physiological concept of homeostasis resonates with certain fundamental concepts of psychoanalysis. Similarly, the authors underline how the Freud and Damasio theories of brain functioning display remarkable complementarities, especially through their common reference to Meynert and James. Furthermore, the Freudian theory of drives is discussed in the light of current neurobiological evidences of neural plasticity and trace formation and of their relationships with the processes of homeostasis. The ensuing dynamics between traces and homeostasis opens novel avenues to consider inner life in reference to the establishment of fantasies unique to each subject. The lack of determinism, within a context of determinism, implied by plasticity and reconsolidation participates in the emergence of singularity, the creation of uniqueness and the unpredictable future of the subject. There is a gap in determinism inherent to biology itself. Uniqueness and discontinuity: this should today be the focus of the questions raised in neuroscience. Neuroscience needs to establish the new bases of a "discontinuous" biology. Psychoanalysis can offer to neuroscience the possibility to think of discontinuity. Neuroscience and psychoanalysis meet thus in an unexpected way with regard to discontinuity and this is a new point of convergence between them.

Quantification of magmatic and hydrothermal processes in a peralkaline syenite-alkali granite complex based on textures, phase equilibria, and stable and radiogenic isotopes

The Puklen complex of the Mid-Proterozoic Gardar Province, South Greenland, consists of various silica-saturated to quartz-bearing syenites, which are intruded by a peralkaline granite. The primary mafic minerals in the syenites are augite +/- olivine + Fe-Ti oxide + amphibole. Ternary feldspar thermometry and phase equilibria among mafic silicates yield T = 950-750degreesC, a(SiO2) = 0.7-1 and an f(O2) of 1-3 log units below the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer at 1 kbar. In the granites, the primary mafic minerals are ilmenite and Li-bearing arfvedsonite, which crystallized at temperatures below 750degreesC and at f(O2) values around the FMQ buffer. In both rock types, a secondary post-magmatic assemblage overprints the primary magmatic phases. In syenites, primary Ca-bearing minerals are replaced by Na-rich minerals such as aegirine-augite and albite, resulting in the release of Ca. Accordingly, secondary minerals include ferro-actinolite, (calcite-siderite)(ss), titanite and andradite in equilibrium with the Na-rich minerals. Phase equilibria indicate that formation of these minerals took place over a long temperature interval from near-magmatic temperatures down to similar to300degreesC. In the course of this cooling, oxygen fugacity rose in most samples. For example, late-stage aegirine in granites formed at the expense of arfvedsonite at temperatures below 300degreesC and at an oxygen fugacity above the haematite-magnetite (HM) buffer. The calculated delta(18)O(melt) value for the syenites (+5.9 to +6.3parts per thousand) implies a mantle origin, whereas the inferred delta(18)O(melt) value of <+5.1parts per thousand for the granitic melts is significantly lower. Thus, the granites require an additional low-delta(18)O contaminant, which was not involved in the genesis of the syenites. Rb/Sr data for minerals of both rock types indicate open-system behaviour for Rb and Sr during post-magmatic metasomatism. Neodymium isotope compositions (epsilonNd(1170 Ma) = -3.8 to -6.4) of primary minerals in syenites are highly variable, and suggest that assimilation of crustal rocks occurred to variable extents. Homogeneous epsilon(Nd) values of -5.9 and -6.0 for magmatic amphibole in the granites lie within the range of the syenites. Because of the very similar neodymium isotopic compositions of magmatic and late- to post-magmatic minerals from the same syenite samples a principally closed-system behaviour during cooling is implied. In contrast, for the granites an externally derived fluid phase is required to explain the extremely low epsilon(Nd) values of about -10 and low delta(18)O between +2.0 and +0.5parts per thousand for late-stage aegirine, indicating an open system in the late-stage history. In this study we show that the combination of phase equilibria constraints with stable and radiogenic isotope data on mineral separates can provide much better constraints on magma evolution during emplacement and crystallization than conventional whole-rock studies.

First-passage and escape problems in the Feller process

The Feller process is an one-dimensional diffusion process with linear drift and state-dependent diffusion coefficient vanishing at the origin. The process is positive definite and it is this property along with its linear character that have made Feller process a convenient candidate for the modeling of a number of phenomena ranging from single-neuron firing to volatility of financial assets. While general properties of the process have long been well known, less known are properties related to level crossing such as the first-passage and the escape problems. In this work we thoroughly address these questions.

Steganalytic methods for the detection of histogram shifting data-hiding schemes

In this paper, some steganalytic techniques designed to detect the existence of hidden messages using histogram shifting methods are presented. Firstly, some techniques to identify specific methods of histogram shifting, based on visible marks on the histogram or abnormal statistical distributions are suggested. Then, we present a general technique capable of detecting all histogram shifting techniques analyzed. This technique is based on the effect of histogram shifting methods on the "volatility" of the histogram of differences and the study of its reduction whenever new data are hidden.

Journalistic practice in risk and crisis situations: Significant examples from Spain

In a democratic society, the media are central to the communication of risks and uncertainties to the public. This article presents 10 proposals for improving media coverage in social risk situations. The article focuses on the production logic of the media and its consequences for society. The proposals and the conclusions of this research are supported by an analysis of three Spanish cases: the risk implied by the Tarragona chemical complex (one of the biggest in Europe); the terrorist attacks on 11 March 2004 in Madrid; and the Carmel tunnel disaster in Barcelona on January 2005. The authors are participating in a research project on public perception of risk funded by the Spanish Education Ministry on public perception of risk (2004–2007 and 2007–2010).

Firms, destinations, and aggregate fluctuations

This paper uses a database covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990-2007 to provide a forensic account of the role of individual firms in generating aggregatefluctuations. We set up a simple multi-sector model of heterogeneous firms selling tomultiple markets to motivate a theoretically-founded decomposition of firms' annualsales growth rate into different components. We find that the firm-specific componentcontributes substantially to aggregate sales volatility, mattering about as much as thecomponents capturing shocks that are common across firms within a sector or country.We then decompose the firm-specific component to provide evidence on two mechanismsthat generate aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic shocks highlighted in the recentliterature: (i) when the firm size distribution is fat-tailed, idiosyncratic shocks tolarge firms directly contribute to aggregate fluctuations; and (ii) aggregate fluctuationscan arise from idiosyncratic shocks due to input-output linkages across the economy.Firm linkages are approximately three times as important as the direct effect of firmshocks in driving aggregate fluctuations.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Nitrogen metabolism in Zucker rats is affected by moderate reduction, but not by moderate incerase in dietary protein

Marked changes in the content of protein in the diet affects the rat"s pattern of growth, but there is not any data on the effects to moderate changes. Here we used a genetically obese rat strain (Zucker) to examine the metabolic modifications induced to moderate changes in the content of protein of diets, doubling (high-protein (HP): 30%) or halving (low-protein (LP): 8%) the content of protein of reference diet (RD: 16%). Nitrogen, energy balances, and amino acid levels were determined in lean (L) and obese (O) animals after 30 days on each diet. Lean HP (LHP) animals showed higher energy efficiency and amino acid catabolism but maintained similar amino acid accrual rates to the lean RD (LRD) group. Conversely, the lean LP (LLP) group showed a lower growth rate, which was compensated by a relative increase in fat mass. Furthermore, these animals showed greater efficiency accruing amino acids. Obesity increased amino acid catabolism as a result of massive amino acid intake; however, obese rats maintained protein accretion rates, which, in the OHP group, implied a normalization of energy efficiency. Nonetheless, the obese OLP group showed the same protein accretion pattern as in lean animals (LLP). In the base of our data, concluded that the Zucker rats accommodate their metabolism to support moderates increases in the content of protein in the diet, but do not adjust in the same way to a 50% decrease in content of protein, as shown by an index of growth reduced, both in lean and obese rats.