The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

The combined influences of westerly phase of the quasi biennial oscillation and 11-year solar maximum conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation

The combined influences of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO-W) and solar maximum (Smax) conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation are investigated using reanalysis data and Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations. The composite analysis for the reanalysis data indicates strengthened polar vortex in December followed by weakened polar vortex in February–March for QBO-W during Smax (QBO-W/Smax) conditions. This relationship need not be specific to QBO-W/Smax conditions but may just require strengthened vortex in December, which is more likely under QBO-W/Smax. Both the reanalysis data and CCM simulations suggest that dynamical processes of planetary wave propagation and meridional circulation related to QBO-W around polar vortex in December are similar in character to those related to Smax; furthermore, both processes may work in concert to maintain stronger vortex during QBO-W/Smax. In the reanalysis data, the strengthened polar vortex in December is associated with the development of north–south dipole tropospheric anomaly in the Atlantic sector similar to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during December–January. The structure of the north–south dipole anomaly has zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1) component, where the longitude of anomalous ridge overlaps with that of climatological ridge in the North Atlantic in January. This implies amplification of the WN1 wave and results in the enhancement of the upward WN1 propagation from troposphere into stratosphere in January, leading to the weakened polar vortex in February–March. Although WN2 waves do not play a direct role in forcing the stratospheric vortex evolution, their tropospheric response to QBO-W/Smax conditions appears to be related to the maintenance of the NAO-like anomaly in the high-latitude troposphere in January. These results may provide a possible explanation for the mechanisms underlying the seasonal evolution of wintertime polar vortex anomalies during QBO-W/Smax conditions and the role of troposphere in this evolution.

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere.

She – a factory

Group Exhibition including Auto Italia South East, The Bureau of Melodramatic Research, Torsten Lauschmann, John Russell, Marika Troili. Curated by Benjamin Fallon. Screening of ‘Vermillion Vortex' 2011.

An analysis of the environmental energetics associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

This study presents the first analysis of the energetics associated with a hybrid cyclone`s transition in the Southern Hemisphere, Hurricane Catarina ( March 2004). Catarina has earned a place in history as the first documented South Atlantic hurricane, but its unusual tropical transition is still poorly understood. Here we show that Catarina`s transition was preceded by marked environmental changes in the Lorenz energy cycle, with an abrupt shift from a baroclinic to a predominantly barotropic state. Such changes help to explain the unusual vortex`s growth until its transition was completed. Although the vortex`s energy flux is not explicitly calculated, a likely mechanism linking the environmental energetics with Catarina is the extraction of eddy kinetic energy from horizontal momentum and heat transfers within the through component of the blocking. The results advance the understanding of this rare event and suggest that the technique has a great potential to study transitioning systems in general.

Interactive Vector Field Feature Identification

We introduce a flexible technique for interactive exploration of vector field data through classification derived from user-specified feature templates. Our method is founded on the observation that, while similar features within the vector field may be spatially disparate, they share similar neighborhood characteristics. Users generate feature-based visualizations by interactively highlighting well-accepted and domain specific representative feature points. Feature exploration begins with the computation of attributes that describe the neighborhood of each sample within the input vector field. Compilation of these attributes forms a representation of the vector field samples in the attribute space. We project the attribute points onto the canonical 2D plane to enable interactive exploration of the vector field using a painting interface. The projection encodes the similarities between vector field points within the distances computed between their associated attribute points. The proposed method is performed at interactive rates for enhanced user experience and is completely flexible as showcased by the simultaneous identification of diverse feature types.

Generation of Vortices and Observation of Quantum Turbulence in an Oscillating Bose-Einstein Condensate

We report on the experimental observation of vortex formation and production of tangled vortex distribution in an atomic BEC of (87)Rb atoms submitted to an external oscillatory perturbation. The oscillatory perturbations start by exciting quadrupolar and scissors modes of the condensate. Then regular vortices are observed finally evolving to a vortex tangle configuration. The vortex tangle is a signature of the presence of a turbulent regime in the cloud. We also show that this turbulent cloud has suppression of the aspect ratio inversion typically observed in quantum degenerate bosonic gases during free expansion.

Static Hopfions in the extended Skyrme-Faddeev model

We construct static soliton solutions with non-zero Hopf topological charges to a theory which is an extension of the Skyrme-Faddeev model by the addition of a further quartic term in derivatives. We use an axially symmetric ansatz based on toroidal coordinates, and solve the resulting two coupled non-linear partial differential equations in two variables by a successive over-relaxation (SOR) method. We construct numerical solutions with Hopf charge up to four, and calculate their analytical behavior in some limiting cases. The solutions present an interesting behavior under the changes of a special combination of the coupling constants of the quartic terms. Their energies and sizes tend to zero as that combination approaches a particular special value. We calculate the equivalent of the Vakulenko and Kapitanskii energy bound for the theory and find that it vanishes at that same special value of the coupling constants. In addition, the model presents an integrable sector with an in finite number of local conserved currents which apparently are not related to symmetries of the action. In the intersection of those two special sectors the theory possesses exact vortex solutions (static and time dependent) which were constructed in a previous paper by one of the authors. It is believed that such model describes some aspects of the low energy limit of the pure SU(2) Yang-Mills theory, and our results may be important in identifying important structures in that strong coupling regime.

Transition to quantum turbulence in finite-size superfluids

A novel concept of quantum turbulence in finite size superfluids, such as trapped bosonic atoms, is discussed. We have used an atomic (87)Rb Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) to study the emergence of this phenomenon. In our experiment, the transition to the quantum turbulent regime is characterized by a tangled vortex lines formation, controlled by the amplitude and time duration of the excitation produced by an external oscillating field. A simple model is suggested to account for the experimental observations. The transition from the non-turbulent to the turbulent regime is a rather gradual crossover. But it takes place in a sharp enough way, allowing for the definition of an effective critical line separating the regimes. Quantum turbulence emerging in a finite-size superfluid may be a new idea helpful for revealing important features associated to turbulence, a more general and broad phenomenon. [GRAPHICS] Amplitude versus elapsed time diagram of magnetically excited BEC superfluid, presenting the evolution from the non-turbulent regime, with well separated vortices, to the turbulent regimes, with tangled vortices (C) 2011 by Astro Ltd. Published exclusively by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA

Route to turbulence in a trapped Bose-Einstein condensate

We have studied a Bose-Einstein condensate of (87)Rb atoms under an oscillatory excitation. For a fixed frequency of excitation, we have explored how the values of amplitude and time of excitation must be combined in order to produce quantum turbulence in the condensate. Depending on the combination of these parameters different behaviors are observed in the sample. For the lowest values of time and amplitude of excitation, we observe a bending of the main axis of the cloud. Increasing the amplitude of excitation we observe an increasing number of vortices. The vortex state can evolve into the turbulent regime if the parameters of excitation are driven up to a certain set of combinations. If the value of the parameters of these combinations is exceeded, all vorticity disappears and the condensate enters into a different regime which we have identified as the granular phase. Our results are summarized in a diagram of amplitude versus time of excitation in which the different structures can be identified. We also present numerical simulations of the Gross-Pitaevskii equation which support our observations. (C) 2011 by Astro Ltd. Published exclusively by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA

O sindicalismo e a administração publica

A dissertação aqui apresentada versa sobre uma temática nova, quer vista sob a ótica do nascimento do fato sociológico analisado - O Sindicalismo e a Administração Pública quer se considere a quase inexistência de fontes nas quais se possa abeberar, para que fosse possível estabelecer o fio condutor no desenvolvimento do tema. A temática foi analisada em dois planos: primeiro, fêz-se uma apreciação crítica da história do associativismo no Brasil, em sua simbiose com o aspecto social, com o lado econômico e com o lastro jurídico, ao ser analisado o caminho percorrido desde o primeiro clarão do Brasil até os dias presentes. Em segundo estágio, perquiriu-se a questão sindical, no que diz respeito à sua etiologia, o seu despertar mais consciente na década de 80 do nosso século, perpassando pela criação das Centrais Sindicais, ao serem detectados os desvios ideológicos, as contradições, a sua fisiologia em função de sua organização, ideário e ação na direção do que se propõem em nome de seus afiliados. Com efeito, o núcleo do trabalho se cinge à arregimentação do corpo de funcionários públicos com vistas a um eficaz - hoje, ainda muito incipiente - congraçamento, ao se deparar com uma forte resistência institucional, de vez que só a partir da Constituição de 1988, é que se abriu caminho para o direito de associação sindical a esse estamento dos agentes públicos. As disfunções são, aí, analisadas em relação ao despreparo dos Recursos Humanos no exercício de liderança e em confronto com a estrutura institucional anacrônica e de feitio autoritário, para fazer valer, de forma eficaz e efetiva, um bom desempenho da ação sindical, que se deseja genuína, autônoma e autógena, em função dos interesses de classe e a ter em vista a excelência dos serviços públicos; o fenômeno estudado, inversamente, mostra o processamento de uma luta sindical radicada em estrutura antidemocrática, em que o Estado financia os sindicatos e todo o aparelhamento sindical vertical, via contribuição sindical e a considerar que esse lastro sustentador da luta sindical é decalque de uma época de predominância de valores chauvinistas, exaltados no Brasil - e em outros países -, nas décadas de 30 e 40. Ainda foi feito um estudo comparativo com três modelos de sindicalismo, quais sejam: o francês, o alemão e o português. Os dois primeiros por razões de se constituirem em paradigmas de países centrais, tendo em vista que: (1) a França é modelo inspirador das instituições ocidentais, em sede político-jurídico-social, haja vista a sua História prenhe de fatos solapadores do statu quo ante; e (2) a Alemanha, por ter uma classe eficazmente institucionalizada de agentes públicos, tendo tradição araigada desde a burocracia prussiana, o que dá o toque de elevado profissionalismo a esses agentes públicos, os quais contam com uma agremiação sindical que guarda independência com relação ao movimento sindical do trabalhador privado, este, também consolidado em poderosa organização sindical naquele país. Portugal aparece no trabalho como o ascendente cultural do Brasil, o que implica em ser mostrado o nascedouro sindical desse país, dentro do clima cultural em que viveu e vive a península lusitana, e com isso se tenta elucidar o estágio de seu sindicalismo, as suas disfunções e auto funções , as suas semelhanças com o modelo brasileiro, as suas inclinações e natureza. As conclusões aferidas registram alguns aspectos relevantes: 1º) o Brasil nasceu de uma Administração centralizadora, marcada por uma máquina administrativa ineficaz, ineficiente, com a marca do Estato-império e sem a presença da construção concomitante de uma nação que é retardatária no assentar a viga da cidadania, o que levou a delongar a formação dos anseios e do espírito genuinamente autóctones. A repressão ao desenvolvimento das letras foi um entrave à criação de um espírito de povo, com a variante de ser uma maioria inculta, massacrantemente iletrada, em meio a uma pirâmide social em que se registrava apenas uma base desmesurada e um vértice acanhado, sem ter de permeio outras classes sociais que pudessem ser ou vir a ser estratificadas. Na esteira desses elementos, concluiu-se que: 2º) o movimento associativo é uma realidade incipiente e adormecido durante séculos, o que desbordou em uma apatia que só hoje começa a ser sacudida, através dos movimentos associativistas e sindical, este último nascido no meio das fábricas e estendido a algumas capitais de maior relevância política ou de maior peso econômico. o aspecto de maior magnitude para o trabalho foi a sinalização aberta aos servidores públicos para que se sindicalizassem, do que decorreu a conclusão de que essa ação precisa ser tangenciada e carreada a ser um movimento mais autenticamente ligado aos interesses da classe, pois por desvirtuamento contingencial em face da iniciante pouca expressão e inexperiência desse estamento, a ação sindical desses servidores sempre esteve à ilharga do movimento sindical do trabalhador privado, o qual tem outra linha de ação direcionada a interesses mais ligados ao conflito trabalho vs. capital, interesses esses que não se coadunam e nem se identificam com as aspirações e necessidades do funcionalismo público, mesmo que, muitas vezes, a questão do conflito desses agentes tenha uma interface no conjunto da pauta de reivindicação dos trabalhadores privados, ou seja, a questão salarial. O imperativo maior - e esta é a base da recomendação mais substancial - é conduzir a ação dos agentes públicos de forma heterodoxa na direção de se independentizar o movimento sindical desses agentes, a ser impulsionado pelas suas peculiaridades e por sua essencialidade ditada pela sua ontologia de servidores da coisa pública e tendo o público como sua clientela. Este é, em síntese, o caminho aqui trilhado.

Obtenção de nanopartículas de hexaferrita de bário pelo método pechini

In this study barium hexaferrite was (general formulae BaFe12O19) was synthesized by the Pechini method under different conditions of heat treatment. Precursors like barium carbonate and iron nitrate were used. These magnetic ceramic, with magnetoplumbite type structure, are widely used as permanent magnet because of its excellent magnetic properties, such as: high Curie temperature, good magnetic anisotropy, high coercivity and corrosion resistance. The samples were characterized by thermal analysis (DTA and TG), X- ray Diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) end Vibrating sample Magnetometer (VSM). The results confirm the expected phase, which was reinforced according to our analysis. A single phase powder at relatively high temperatures with particle sizes around 100 nm was obtained. The characteristic magnetic behavior one of the phases has been noted (probably superparamagnetic material), while another phase was identified as a ferrimagnetic material. The ferrimagnetic phase showed vortex configuration with two central and slightly inclined plateaus. In general, increase of heat treatment temperature and time, directly influenced the technological properties of the samples

Estudo estatístico sobre eventos de precipitação intensa no nordeste do Brasil

The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) shows high climate variability, ranging from semiarid regions to a rainy regions. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NEB is highly susceptible to climate change, and also heavy rainfall events (HRE). However, few climatology studies about these episodes were performed, thus the objective main research is to compute the climatology and trend of the episodes number and the daily rainfall rate associated with HRE in the NEB and its climatologically homogeneous sub regions; relate them to the weak rainfall events and normal rainfall events. The daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas, from 1972 to 2002. For selection of rainfall events used the technique of quantiles and the trend was identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The sub regions were obtained by cluster analysis, using as similarity measure the Euclidean distance and Ward agglomerative hierarchical method. The results show that the seasonality of the NEB is being intensified, i.e., the dry season is becoming drier and wet season getting wet. The El Niño and La Niña influence more on the amount of events regarding the intensity, but the sub-regions this influence is less noticeable. Using daily data reanalysis ERAInterim fields of anomalies of the composites of meteorological variables were calculated for the coast of the NEB, to characterize the synoptic environment. The Upper-level cyclonic vortex and the South atlantic convergene zone were identified as the main weather systems responsible for training of EPI on the coastland

Simulação numérica da interação entre uma nuvem incidente de vórtices e uma aerofólio através do método dos vórtices

The study of aerodynamic loading variations has many engineering applications, including helicopter rotor blades, wind turbines and turbo machinery. This work uses a Vortex Method to make a lagrangian description of the a twodimensional airfoil/ incident wake vortex interaction. The flow is incompressible, newtonian, homogeneus and the Reynolds Number is 5x105 .The airfoil is a NACA 0018 placed a angle of attack of the 0° and 5°simulates with the Painel Method with a constant density vorticity panels and a generation poit is near the painel. The protector layer is created does not permit vortex inside the body. The vortex Lamb convection is realized with the Euler Method (first order) and Adans-Bashforth (second order). The Random Walk Method is used to simulate the diffusion. The circular wake has 366 vortex all over positive or negative vorticity located at different heights with respect to the airfoil chord. The Lift was calculated based in the algorithm created by Ricci (2002). This simulation uses a ready algorithm vatidated with single body does not have a incident wake. The results are compared with a experimental work The comparasion concludes that the experimental results has a good agrement with this papper