CXTANNEAL: an improved program for estimating solute transport parameters

CXTANNEAL is a program for analysing contaminant transport in soils. The code, written in Fortran 77, is a modified version of CXTFIT, a commonly used package for estimating solute transport parameters in soils. The improvement of the present code is that it includes simulated annealing as the optimization technique for curve fitting. Tests with hypothetical data show that CXTANNEAL performs better than the original code in searching for optimal parameter estimates. To reduce the computational time, a parallel version of CXTANNEAL (CXTANNEAL_P) was also developed. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Placental growth hormone (GH), GH-binding protein, and insulin-like growth factor axis in normal, growth-retarded, and diabetic pregnancies: Correlations with fetal growth

We previously described significant changes in GH-binding protein (GHBP) in pathological human pregnancy. There was a substantial elevation of GHBP in cases of noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and a reduction in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. GHBP has the potential to modulate the proportion of free placental GH (PGH) and hence the impact on the maternal GH/insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) axis, fetal growth, and maternal glycemic status. The present study was undertaken to investigate the relationship among glycemia, GHBP, and PGH during pregnancy and to assess the impact of GHBP on the concentration of free PGH. We have extended the analysis of specimens to include measurements of GHBP, PGH, IGF-I, IGF-II, IGF-binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), IGFSP-2, and IGFBP-3 and have related these to maternal characteristics, fetal growth, and glycemia. The simultaneous measurement of GHBP and PGH has for the first time allowed calculation of the free component of PGH and correlation of the free component to indexes of fetal growth and other endocrine markers. PGH, free PGH, IGF-I, and IGF-II were substantially decreased in IUGR at 28-30 weeks gestation (K28) and 36-38 weeks gestation (K36). The mean concentration (+/-SEM) of total PGH increased significantly from K28 to K36 (30.0 +/- 2.2 to 50.7 +/- 6.2 ng/mL; n = 40), as did the concentration of free PGH (23.4 +/- 2.3 to 43.7 +/- 6.0 ng/mL; n = 38). The mean percentage of free PGH was significantly less in IUGR than in normal subjects (67% vs. 79%; P < 0.01). Macrosomia was associated with an increase in these parameters that did not reach statistical significance. Multiple regression analysis revealed that PGH/IGF-I and IGFBP-5 account for 40% of the variance in birth weight. IGFBP-3 showed a significant correlation with IGF-I, IGF-II, and free and total PGK at K28 and K36. Noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus patients had a lower mean percentage of free PGH (65%; P < 0.01), and insulin-dependent diabetics had a higher mean percentage of free PGH (87%; P < 0.01) than normal subjects. Mean postprandial glucose at K28 correlated positively with PGH and free PGH (consistent with the hyperglycemic action of GH). GHBP correlated negatively with both postprandial and fasting glucose. Although GHBP correlated negatively with PGH (r = -0.52; P

Impact on perinatal mortality of missed opportunities to treat maternal syphilis in rural South Africa: baseline results from a clinic randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE To demonstrate the impact on perinatal mortality of inadequate treatment for maternal syphilis despite adequate screening. METHOD In 12 clinics providing antenatal care in Hlabisa, South Africa 1783 pregnant women were screened for syphilis at their first antenatal visit between June and October 1998. Pregnancy outcome was determined among those with syphilis. RESULTS A total of 158 women were diagnosed with syphilis: prevalence 9% (95% CI 8-10%). Mean gestation at first antenatal visit was 24 weeks. Thirty women (19%) received no treatment and 96 (61%) received all three recommended doses of penicillin. Among those receiving at least one dose, mean delay to the first dose was 20 days. Among those fully treated mean delay to treatment completion was 34 days. Pregnancy outcome was known for 142 women (90%) and there were 17 perinatal deaths among 15 women (11%). Eleven of 43 women (26%) who received one or fewer doses of penicillin experienced ii perinatal death whilst only four of 99 women (4%) who received two or more doses of penicillin did so (P = 0.0001). Protection from perinatal death increased with the number of doses of penicillin: linear modelling suggests that one dose reduced the risk by 41%, two doses by 65% and three doses by 79%, compared with no doses. A dose-specific, categorical model confirmed reduction in risk by 79% for all three doses. CONCLUSION Despite effective screening, many pregnant women with syphilis remain inadequately treated, resulting in avoidable perinatal mortality. Delays in starting and finishing treatment, as well as incomplete treatment occur. Near-patient syphilis testing in the antenatal clinic with early treatment could improve treatment of syphilis and reduce perinatal mortality, and a randomized trial to test this is underway.

Impact of increasing the re-supply interval on the seasonality of subsidised prescription use in Australia

Objective: To evaluate the impact of increasing the minimum resupply period for prescriptions on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in November 1994. The intervention was designed to reduce the stockpiling of medicines used for chronic medical conditions under the PBS safety net. Methods: Interrupted times series regression analyses were performed on 114 months of PBS drug utilisation data from January 1991 to June 2000. These analyses assessed whether there had been a significant interaction between the onset of the intervention in November 1994 and the extreme levels of drug utilisation in the months of December (peak utilisation) and January (lowest utilisation) respectively. Both serial and 12-month lag autocorrelations were controlled for. Results: The onset of the intervention was associated with a significant reduction in the December peak in drug utilisation; after the introduction of the policy there were 1,150,196 fewer proscriptions on average or that month (95% Cl 708,333-1,592,059). There was, however, no significant change in the low level of utilisation in January. The effect of the policy appears to be decreasing across successive postintervention years. though the odds of a prescription being dispensed in December remained significantly lower in 1999 compared to each of the pre-intervention years (11% vs. 14%) Conclusion: Analysis of the impact of increasing the re-supply period for PBS prescriptions showed that the magnitude of peak utilisation in December had been markedly reduced by the policy, though this effect appears to be decreasing over time. Continued monitoring and policy review is warranted in order to ensure that the initial effect of the intervention be maintained.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analytical solution to the zero-inertia problem for surge flow phenomena in nonprismatic channels

Surge flow phenomena. e.g.. as a consequence of a dam failure or a flash flood, represent free boundary problems. ne extending computational domain together with the discontinuities involved renders their numerical solution a cumbersome procedure. This contribution proposes an analytical solution to the problem, It is based on the slightly modified zero-inertia (ZI) differential equations for nonprismatic channels and uses exclusively physical parameters. Employing the concept of a momentum-representative cross section of the moving water body together with a specific relationship for describing the cross sectional geometry leads, after considerable mathematical calculus. to the analytical solution. The hydrodynamic analytical model is free of numerical troubles, easy to run, computationally efficient. and fully satisfies the law of volume conservation. In a first test series, the hydrodynamic analytical ZI model compares very favorably with a full hydrodynamic numerical model in respect to published results of surge flow simulations in different types of prismatic channels. In order to extend these considerations to natural rivers, the accuracy of the analytical model in describing an irregular cross section is investigated and tested successfully. A sensitivity and error analysis reveals the important impact of the hydraulic radius on the velocity of the surge, and this underlines the importance of an adequate description of the topography, The new approach is finally applied to simulate a surge propagating down the irregularly shaped Isar Valley in the Bavarian Alps after a hypothetical dam failure. The straightforward and fully stable computation of the flood hydrograph along the Isar Valley clearly reflects the impact of the strongly varying topographic characteristics on the How phenomenon. Apart from treating surge flow phenomena as a whole, the analytical solution also offers a rigorous alternative to both (a) the approximate Whitham solution, for generating initial values, and (b) the rough volume balance techniques used to model the wave tip in numerical surge flow computations.

Impact of on-site testing for maternal syphilis on treatment delays, treatment rates, and perinatal mortality in rural South Africa: a randomised controlled trial

Background: Syphilis remains a significant cause of preventable perinatal death in developing countries with many women remaining untested and thus untreated. Syphilis testing in the clinic (on-site testing) may be a useful strategy to overcome this. We studied the impact of on-site syphilis testing on treatment delays and rates, and perinatal mortality. Methods: We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial among seven pairs of primary healthcare clinics in rural South Africa, comparing on-site testing complemented by laboratory confirmation versus laboratory testing alone. Intervention clinics used the on-site test conducted by primary care nurses, with results and treatment available within an hour. Control clinics sent blood samples to the provincial laboratory, with results returned 2 weeks later. Results: Of 7134 women seeking antenatal care with available test results, 793 (11.1%) tested positive for syphilis. Women at intervention clinics completed treatment 16 days sooner on average (95% confidence interval: 11 to 21), though there was no significant difference in the proportion receiving adequate treatment at intervention (64%) and control (69%) clinics. There was also no significant difference in the proportion experiencing perinatal loss (3.3% v 5.1%; adjusted risk difference: -0.9%; 95% Cl -4.4 to 2.7). Conclusions: Despite reducing treatment delays, the addition of on-site syphilis testing to existing laboratory testing services did not lead to higher treatment rates or reduce perinatal mortality. However on-site testing for syphilis may remain an important option for improving antenatal care in settings where laboratory facilities are not available.

Impact of undergraduate and postgraduate rural training, and medical school entry criteria on rural practice among Australian general practitioners: national study of 2414 doctors

Objective To determine the association between rural undergraduate training, rural postgraduate training and medical school entry criteria favouring rural students, on likelihood of working in rural Australian general practice. Methods National case - control study of 2414 rural and urban general practitioners (GPs) sampled from the Health Insurance Commission database. Participants completed a questionnaire providing information on demographics, current practice location and rural undergraduate and postgraduate experience. Results Rural GPs were more likely to report having had any rural undergraduate training [ odds ratio ( OR) 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32 - 1.95] than were urban GPs. Rural GPs were much more likely to report having had rural postgraduate training ( OR 3.14, 95% CI 2.57 - 3.83). As the duration of rural postgraduate training increased so did the likelihood of working as a rural GP: those reporting that more than half their postgraduate training was rural were most likely to be rural GPs ( OR 10.52, 95% CI 5.39 - 20.51). South Australians whose final high school year was rural were more likely to be rural GPs ( OR 3.18, 95% CI 0.99 - 10.22). Conclusions Undergraduate rural training, postgraduate training and medical school entry criteria favouring rural students, all are associated with an increased likelihood of being a rural GP. Longer rural postgraduate training is more strongly associated with rural practice. These findings argue for continuation of rural undergraduate training opportunities and rural entry schemes, and an expansion in postgraduate training opportunities for GPs.

Late Quaternary Milankovitch-scale climatic change and variability and its impact on monsoonal Australasia

Four pollen and charcoal records derived from marine cores around the northern perimeter of Australia are examined to provide a regional picture of patterns, causes and impacts of climate change over the last 100-300 ka. The availability of radiocarbon dates and oxygen isotope records for the cores provides primary chronological control. Spectral analysis of components of these records demonstrates an overall importance of Milankovitch frequencies with clear glacial-interglacial cyclicity dominated by variation in precipitation. In addition, a number of pollen taxa, as well as charcoal particles, exhibit a 30 ka frequency that is considered, from its relationship with biomass burning and with results of past modelling, to reflect changes in the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Pollen components of all records show a decline, frequently stepwise, in more fire-sensitive vegetation and its replacement with more fire-tolerant vegetation. There is some evidence that this trend is linked to an onset or general increase in ENSO activity and perhaps also to variation in monsoon activity dating from about 300 ka BP that was caused by changes to oceanic circulation within the Indonesian region. The trend may have accelerated within the last 45 ka due to burning by indigenous people. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Screening for leprosy in immigrants: A decision analysis model

Almost all leprosy cases reported in industrialized countries occur amongst immigrants or refugees from developing countries where leprosy continues to be an important health issue. Screening for leprosy is an important question for governments in countries with immigration and refugee programmes. A decision analysis framework is used to evaluate leprosy screening. The analysis uses a set of criteria and parameters regarding leprosy screening, and available data to estimate the number of cases which would be detected by a leprosy screening programme of immigrants from countries with different leprosy prevalences, compared with a policy of waiting for immigrants who develop symptomatic clinical diseases to present for health care. In a cohort of 100,000 immigrants from high leprosy prevalence regions (3.6/10,000), screening would detect 32 of the 42 cases which would arise in the destination country over the 14 years after migration; from medium prevalence areas (0.7/10,000) 6.3 of the total 8.1 cases would be detected, and from low prevalence regions (0.2/10,600) 1.8 of 2.3 cases. Using Australian data, the migrant mix would produce 74 leprosy cases from 10 years intake; screening would detect 54, and 19 would be diagnosed subsequently after migration. Screening would only produce significant case-yield amongst immigrants from regions or social groups with high leprosy prevalence. Since the number of immigrants to Australia from countries of higher endemnicity is not large routine leprosy screening would have a small impact on case incidence.

Interability interactions: Impact of type and visibility of disability on perceptions

Research on perceptions of people with disabilities has in general focussed on a single disability or on unspecified 'disability.' The aim of this study was to compare perceptions of several acquired disabilities from an intergroup perspective. It was hypothesised that the type (sensory or motor) and visibility of the disability would influence perceptions, and that prior contact would increase the positivity of perceptions. Participants were 155 students who gave their own, other, perceived self, and communication perceptions of male and female targets (with deafness, blindness, aphasia, or paraplegia) in vignettes. Results indicated that for most measures, people with motor disabilities were perceived more negatively than those with sensory ones, visible sensory disabilities more negatively than invisible sensory, but contrary to predictions, invisible motor more negatively than visible motor. There was some support for the association between prior contact and more positive perceptions.