New biomarkers and risk stratification in atrial fibrillation:simplicity and practicality matter

Advances in our understanding of pathological mechanisms can inform the identification of various biomarkers for risk stratification, monitoring drug efficacy and toxicity; and enabling careful monitoring of polypharmacy. Biomarkers in the broadest sense refer to 'biological markers' and this can be blood-based (eg. fibrin D-dimer, von Willebrand factor, etc) urine-based (eg. thromboxane), or even related to cardiac or cerebral imaging(1). Most biomarkers offer improvements over clinical risk scores in predicting high risk patients - at least statistically - but usually at the loss of simplicity and practicality for easy application in everyday clinical practice. Given the various biomarkers can be informed by different aspects of pathophysiology (e.g. inflammation, clotting, collagen turnover) they can nevertheless contribute to a better understanding of underlying disease processes(2). Indeed, many age-related diseases share common modifiable underpinning mechanisms e.g. inflammation, oxidative stress and visceral adiposity.

Bayesian neural network approach for determining the risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair

This article proposes a Bayesian neural network approach to determine the risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair surgery. The target of proposed technique is to determine which patients have high chance to re-intervention (high-risk patients) and which are not (low-risk patients) after 5 years of the surgery. Two censored datasets relating to the clinical conditions of aortic aneurysms have been collected from two different vascular centers in the United Kingdom. A Bayesian network was first employed to solve the censoring issue in the datasets. Then, a back propagation neural network model was built using the uncensored data of the first center to predict re-intervention on the second center and classify the patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for each group of patients separately to show whether there is a significant difference between the two risk groups. Finally, the logrank test was applied to determine whether the neural network model was capable of predicting and distinguishing between the two risk groups. The results show that the Bayesian network used for uncensoring the data has improved the performance of the neural networks that were built for the two centers separately. More importantly, the neural network that was trained with uncensored data of the first center was able to predict and discriminate between groups of low risk and high risk of re-intervention after 5 years of endovascular aortic aneurysm surgery at center 2 (p = 0.0037 in the logrank test).

Understanding the risk of hypoglycaemia in older individuals with diabetes

Introduction: Although older individuals are more prone to hypoglycaemia, it is not known if they have sufficient understanding of the risks of hypoglycaemia or the factors that predispose to it. We evaluated the effectiveness of hypoglycaemia education and examined the factors that increased susceptibility to hypoglycaemia among older people with diabetes. Methods: Forty-five patients (male/female) aged >65 years and known to have diabetes were identified through outpatient clinics at a secondary care hospital. Information relating to education received, awareness of hypoglycaemia and associated risk factors was collected using a standard questionnaire. Additionally, data regarding demographics, treatment regimes, patient attitudes, hypoglycaemic awareness and risks and barriers to self-management of diabetes was collected. Patients were categorised as low, moderate and high risk based on their responses. Independent sample t-tests and Analysis of Variance were carried out to identify factors contributing to high hypoglycaemic risk. Results: Overall, 70% of the patients reported receiving education about hypoglycaemia from health professionals and 95% of them reported good understanding of hypoglycaemia and were able to self-test. Proportion of women receiving education was, however, lower than men (52% women versus 88% men). Compared with men, women were less likely to recognise (59 versus 73%), or act appropriately to a hypoglycaemic episode (59 versus 78%). The mean number of hypoglycaemic episodes per year (41 versus 12) and the duration of hypoglycaemia (9.9 versus 6.3 min) was also greater among women compared with men. The duration of diabetes (P = 0.018), female gender, type 1 diabetes (0.002) and lack awareness of medications causing hypos (P = 0.006) were strong predictors of hypoglycaemia risk. Conclusions: There are significant gaps in education around hypoglycaemia in older people with diabetes. Women, people with longer duration and type 1 diabetes in particular, need additional attention and future educational initiatives need to address these issues.  

The risk of adverse selection and its management in the process of venture capital investment (The experience of Hungarian investors)

Venture capitalists can be regarded as financers of young, high-risk enterprises, seeking investments with a high growth potential and offering professional support above and beyond their capital investment. The aim of this study is to analyse the occurrence of information asymmetry between venture capital investors and entrepreneurs, with special regard to the problem of adverse selection. In the course of my empirical research, I conducted in-depth interviews with 10 venture capital investors. The aim of the research was to elicit their opinions about the situation regarding information asymmetry, how they deal with problems arising from adverse selection, and what measures they take to manage these within the investment process. In the interviews we also touched upon how investors evaluate state intervention, and how much they believe company managers are influenced by state support.

A comparative analysis of school satisfaction and dropout risk of middle school students attending programs for students with emotional handicaps, severe emotional disturbance and general education students attending center schools and satellite schools

This study evaluated school satisfaction as an indicator of dropout risk of students with Emotional Handicaps (EH) and students with Severe Emotional Disturbance (SED). The students attended two different kinds of middle schools in a largely urban school district in South Florida. One hundred eight students in grade 8 (ages 13-16) participated in this study. Participants were administered the National Dropout Prevention Assessment (NDPA). Forty participants with EH and SED attended a special center school. Thirty-one participants with EH and SED attended satellite programs in a regular middle school. Thirty-seven general education participants attended the same regular middle school. Overall school satisfaction scores were generated, as well as three primary factors (school, environment and personal) and 16 subscales (school atmosphere, future income, difficulty level of classwork, teacher relationships, peer relationships, intrinsic interest in classwork, school hours, classwork stress, general attitude towards school, family influence, perceived opportunity for career, future goals, travel distance, leisure time, self-appraisal of performance, and self-esteem).^ Comparison of students with EH and SED revealed that both groups of students were rated at "low risk" of becoming dropouts on the Environmental factor and the Difficulty of Schoolwork subscale. Students with EH were rated at "caution risk" risk on the Travel Distance subscale. Students with SED were rated at "high risk" on this subscale.^ There were no significant differences in school satisfaction and dropout risk between different program delivery models. There were also no significant differences for category of students (EH, SED) by school type (center school, satellite program). All students were rated at "low risk" of dropping out of school.^ There were significant differences between general education students and students with EH and SED attending satellite programs. Students with EH and SED were rated at "caution risk" for dropping out on the Travel Distance and the Leisure Time subscales. Discussion of results, implications for practice and recommendations for further research are included. ^

Social support, risk, and adjustment of immigrant preadolescents

The current study was designed to explore the salience of social support, immigrant status, and risk in middle childhood and early adolescence across two time periods as indicated by measures of school adjustment and well-being. Participants included 691 children of public elementary schools in grades 4 and 6 who were interviewed in 1997 (Time 1) and reinterviewed two years later (Time 2); 539 were U.S.-born, and 152 were foreign-born. ^ Repeated measures multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVA's) were conducted to assess the effects of immigrant status and risk on total support, well-being, and school adjustment from Time 1 to Time 2. Follow-up analyses, including Student-Newman-Keuls post hoc tests, were used to test the significance of the differences among the means of support categories (low and high), immigrant status (U.S. born and non-U.S. born), risk (low and high) and time (time 1 and time 2). ^ Results showed that immigrant participants in the high risk group reported significantly lower levels of support than their peers. Further, children of low risk at Time 2 indicated the highest levels of support. Second, immigrant preadolescents, preadolescents who reported low levels of social support, and preadolescents of the high risk reported lower levels of emotional well-being. There was also an interaction of support by risk by time, indicating that children who are at risk and had low levels of social support reported more emotional problems at Time 1. Finally, preadolescents who are at risk and preadolescents who reported lower levels of support were more likely to show school adaptation problems. Findings from this study highlight the importance of a multivariable approach to the study of support, emotional adjustment, and academic adjustment of immigrant preadolescents. ^

Risk factors of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases among Jamaican adolescents

Purpose. The purpose of the study was to examine Jamaican adolescents in a school setting, for risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Methods. A descriptive epidemiological cross-sectional study of 276 Jamaican adolescents (112 males and 164 females) ages 14-19 years (15.6±1.2), randomly selected from grades 9-12 from ten high schools on the island. Thirteen risk factors were examined. Risk factors were compared with BMI levels and demographics. A sub-study validated finger prick testing of fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, and HbA1c versus venous testing in 59 subjects. Results. Prevalence of overweight was 33.0% (n=91) with mean BMI of 23.74±7.74. Approximately 66.7% of subjects reported ≥ 3 risk factors. The number of T2DM and CVDs risk factors increased for subjects with BMI above 25. One third of the overweight subjects were classified with the metabolic syndrome. High BMI was associated with high waist circumference (r = .767, p < .01), high waist-to-hip ratio (r = .180, p < .01), presence of Acanthosis Nigricans (r = .657, p < .01), high total cholesterol (r = .158, p < .01), family history of T2DM (r = .157, p < .01), and hypertension (r = .422, p < .01). Regression analyses significantly predicted gender and physical activity (p < .001), and total number of risk factors for T2DM and CVDs (p < .001). Paired samples t-tests revealed no significant differences between methods of testing for TC and HbA1c (p < .01) but not for FBG (p > .05). Percentage bias for the methods of blood testing met the reference standards for fasting blood glucose but not for total cholesterol and HbA1c. Bland Altman tests of agreement between the two methods indicated good agreement for all three tests. Conclusion. Jamaican adolescents are at high risk for T2DM and CVDs as seen in other study populations. Effective programs to prevent T2DM and CVDs are needed. Family history of diseases, anthropometric measures, and gender identified more subjects at risk than did the biochemical measures. Comparison between finger prick and venous blood methods suggested that finger prick is an adequate method to screen for risk factors in children and adolescents.

Age Differences among Female Sex Workers in the Philippines: Sexual Risk Negotiations and Perceived Manager Advice

Consistent condom use among high risk groups such as female sex workers (FSWs) remains low. Adolescent female sex workers are especially at higher risk for HIV/STI infections. However, few published studies have compared the sexual risk negotiations among adolescent, emerging adult, and older age groups or the extent a manager’s advice about condom use is associated with an FSW’s age. Of 1,388 female bar/spa workers surveyed in the southern Philippines, 791 FSW who traded sex in the past 6 months were included in multivariable logistic regression models. The oldest FSWs (aged 36–48) compared to adolescent FSWs (aged 14–17) were 3.3 times more likely to negotiate condoms when clients refused condom use. However, adolescent FSWs received more advice from their managers to convince clients to use condoms or else to refuse sex, compared to older FSWs. Both adolescent and the oldest FSWs had elevated sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and inconsistent condom use compared to other groups. Having a condom rule at the establishment was positively associated with condom negotiation. Factors such as age, the advice managers give to their workers, and the influence of a condom use rule at the establishment need to be considered when delivering HIV/STI prevention interventions.

Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors among Adolescent Detainees

During the past two decades there has been much research conducted on the relationship between the risky sexual behavior practices and substance use among U.S. adolescents. This body of research has documented the fact that substance use and not using condoms are the most important indicators associated with the risk of becoming infected with sexually transmitted diseases (STD) both among adolescents and adults (Florida Department of Public Health, 2004; Malow, Devieux, Jennings, & Lucenko, 2001; McCoy & Inciardi, 1995). Data from those reports and studies indicate that adolescents and adults who use a condom regularly and appropriately are 20 times less likely to contract an STD than those who do not (Pinkerton & Abramson, 1997). However, less empirical evidence exists about the factors that influence adolescent use of condoms, particularly among adolescents who are detained due to their criminal lifestyle. Researchers have found both a high prevalence of STD in addition to early onset of sexual activity without protection among some adolescent groups such as the detainees (D'angelo & DiClemente, 1996) and that adolescents tend to underestimate their risks of acquiring the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (Magura, Shapiro, & Kang, 1994). Many adolescents will experiment with alcohol and other drugs. This behavior may compromise their judgment and increase their chances of engaging in risky sex (Rotheram-Borus, 2000). Hence the need for research that investigates the influence that substance use, risky sexual attitudes, knowledge about the transmission of HIV, and both peer and parental approval of condom use have on the use of condoms among both female and male adolescent detainees. Lastly, it is important for additional research to be conducted because adolescent detainees have been identified as being at high risk of becoming infected with an STD (Malow, Rosemberg, & Devieux, 2006). The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship among adolescent substance use, gender, sexual risk attitude, attitude about personal use of condoms, knowledge associated with the transmission of HIV, peer and family approval of condom use, history of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and the level of condom use in a sample of adolescents housed in a correctional institution. Further details of the explanatory variables, the control variables and their expected relationships can be found in the review of the Literature in Chapter 2. Also, more information about the separate analysis of the research questions is detailed in the Methods section in Chapter 3. Based on the literature detailed in Chapter 2 (e.g., Malow et al., 2006), the current study’s researcher anticipated that adolescents’ higher levels of illicit drug use would be related to higher levels of sexual risk behaviors, as measured by lower levels of condom use, than their counterparts who used no drugs. Similarly, it was hypothesized that positive attitudes toward condom use and higher levels of HIV risk knowledge would be associated with a lower level of risky sexual behaviors along with a higher level of condom use skill. It was further hypothesized that the level of approval perceived from parents and peers regarding condom use was going to be related to adolescents’ safe sex behavior (i.e., condom use). Therefore, it was expected that participants’ perception of a high level of approval to use condoms from peers and parents would be a statistically significant variable in helping explain the condom use within this sample of adolescent detainees.

Risk factors of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases among Jamaican adolescents

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to examine Jamaican adolescents in a school setting, for risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Methods: A descriptive epidemiological cross-sectional study of 276 Jamaican adolescents (112 males and 164 females) ages 14-19 years (15.6±1.2), randomly selected from grades 9-12 from ten high schools on the island. Thirteen risk factors were examined. Risk factors were compared with BMI levels and demographics. A sub-study validated finger prick testing of fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, and HbAlc versus venous testing in 59 subjects. Results: Prevalence of overweight was 33.0% (n=91) with mean BMI of 23.74±7.74. Approximately 66.7% of subjects reported > 3 risk factors. The number of T2DM and CVDs risk factors increased for subjects with BMI above 25. One third of the overweight subjects were classified with the metabolic syndrome. High BMI was associated with high waist circumference (r =.767, p (r = .180, p.05). Percentage bias for the methods of blood testing met the reference standards for fasting blood glucose but not for total cholesterol and HbAlc. Bland Altman tests of agreement between the two methods indicated good agreement for all three tests. Conclusion: Jamaican adolescents are at high risk for T2DM and CVDs as seen in other study populations. Effective programs to prevent T2DM and CVDs are needed. Family history of diseases, anthropometric measures, and gender identified more subjects at risk than did the biochemical measures. Comparison between finger prick and venous blood methods suggested that finger prick is an adequate method to screen for risk factors in children and adolescents.

Comparison of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors between Single and Partnered Mothers: Data from the 2006 Health Survey of Adults and Children in Bermuda

Women are a high-risk population for cardiovascular diseases (CVD); however relationships between CVD and subpopulations of mothers are sparse. A secondary data analysis of the 2006 Health Survey of Adults and Children in Bermuda was conducted to compare the prevalence of CVD risk factors in single (n=77) and partnered (n=241) mothers. A higher percentage of single mothers were Black (p25 kg/m2 (p=0.01) and reported high blood pressure (p=0.004) and high cholesterol (0.017). Single mothers were nearly three times (OR=2.66) more likely to experience high blood pressure and two times (OR= 2.22) more likely to have high cholesterol. Single mothers may benefit from nutrition education programs related to lowering CVD risk.

Overweight status is associated with extensive signs of microvascular dysfunction and cardiovascular risk

The aim of this present study was to investigate if overweight individuals exhibit signs of vascular dysfunction associated with a high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). One hundred lean and 100 overweight participants were recruited for the present study. Retinal microvascular function was assessed using the Dynamic Retinal Vessel Analyser (DVA), and systemic macrovascular function by means of flow-mediated dilation (FMD). Investigations also included body composition, carotid intimal-media thickness (c-IMT), ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (BP), fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides (TG), cholesterol levels (HDL-C and LDL-C), and plasma von Willebrand factor (vWF). Overweight individuals presented with higher right and left c-IMT (p = 0.005 and p = 0.002, respectively), average 24-h BP values (all p <0.001), plasma glucose (p = 0.008), TG (p = 0.003), TG: HDL-C ratio (p = 0.010), and vWF levels (p = 0.004). Moreover, overweight individuals showed lower retinal arterial microvascular dilation (p = 0.039) and baseline-corrected flicker (bFR) responses (p = 0.022), as well as, prolonged dilation reaction time (RT, p = 0.047). These observations emphasise the importance of vascular screening and consideration of preventive interventions to decrease vascular risk in all individuals with adiposity above normal range.

Thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk score in an observation unit setting.

OBJECTIVE: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score is a validated tool for risk stratification of acute coronary syndrome. We hypothesized that the TIMI risk score would be able to risk stratify patients in observation unit for acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients placed in an urban academic hospital emergency department observation unit with an average annual census of 65,000 between 2004 and 2007. Exclusion criteria included elevated initial cardiac biomarkers, ST segment changes on ECG, unstable vital signs, or unstable arrhythmias. A composite of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) indicators, including diagnosis of myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass surgery, or death within 30 days and 1 year, were abstracted via chart review and financial record query. The entire cohort was stratified by TIMI risk scores (0-7) and composite event rates with 95% confidence interval were calculated. RESULTS: In total 2228 patients were analyzed. Average age was 54.5 years, 42.0% were male. The overall median TIMI risk score was 1. Eighty (3.6%) patients had 30-day and 119 (5.3%) had 1-year CAD indicators. There was a trend toward increasing rate of composite CAD indicators at 30 days and 1 year with increasing TIMI score, ranging from a 1.2% event rate at 30 days and 1.9% at 1 year for TIMI score of 0 and 12.5% at 30 days and 21.4% at 1 year for TIMI ≥ 4. CONCLUSIONS: In an observation unit cohort, the TIMI risk score is able to risk stratify patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups.

The association of HIV counseling and testing with HIV risk behaviors in a random population-based survey in Kisumu, Kenya.

HIV testing has been promoted as a key HIV prevention strategy in low-resource settings, despite studies showing variable impact on risk behavior. We sought to examine rates of HIV testing and the association between testing and sexual risk behaviors in Kisumu, Kenya. Participants were interviewed about HIV testing and sexual risk behaviors. They then underwent HIV serologic testing. We found that 47% of women and 36% of men reported prior testing. Two-thirds of participants who tested HIV-positive in this study reported no prior HIV test. Women who had undergone recent testing were less likely to report high-risk behaviors than women who had never been tested; this was not seen among men. Although rates of HIV testing were higher than seen in previous studies, the majority of HIV-infected people were unaware of their status. Efforts should be made to increase HIV testing among this population.

Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.