Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Diagnostic model based on Raman spectra of normal, hyperplasia and prostate adenocarcinoma tissues in vitro

This study evaluated the use of Raman spectroscopy to identify the spectral differences between normal (N), benign hyperplasia (BPH) and adenocarcinoma (CaP) in fragments of prostate biopsies in vitro with the aim of developing a spectral diagnostic model for tissue classification. A dispersive Raman spectrometer was used with 830 nm wavelength and 80 mW excitation. Following Raman data collection and tissue histopathology (48 fragments diagnosed as N, 43 as BPH and 14 as CaP), two diagnostic models were developed in order to extract diagnostic information: the first using PCA and Mahalanobis analysis techniques and the second one a simplified biochemical model based on spectral features of cholesterol, collagen, smooth muscle cell and adipocyte. Spectral differences between N, BPH and CaP tissues, were observed mainly in the Raman bands associated with proteins, lipids, nucleic and amino acids. The PCA diagnostic model showed a sensitivity and specificity of 100%, which indicates the ability of PCA and Mahalanobis distance techniques to classify tissue changes in vitro. Also, it was found that the relative amount of collagen decreased while the amount of cholesterol and adipocyte increased with severity of the disease. Smooth muscle cell increased in BPH tissue. These characteristics were used for diagnostic purposes.

Predictive models for diagnosis of pleural effusions secondary to tuberculosis or cancer

Background and objective: Tuberculosis (TB) and cancer are two of the main causes of pleural effusions which frequently share similar clinical features and pleural fluid profiles. This study aimed to identify diagnostic models based on clinical and laboratory variables to differentiate tuberculous from malignant pleural effusions. Methods: A retrospective study of 403 patients (200 with TB; 203 with cancer) was undertaken. Univariate analysis was used to select the clinical variables relevant to the models composition. Variables beta coefficients were used to define a numerical score which presented a practical use. The performances of the most efficient models were tested in a sample of pleural exudates (64 new cases). Results: Two models are proposed for the diagnosis of effusions associated with each disease. For TB: (i) adenosine deaminase (ADA), globulins and the absence of malignant cells in the pleural fluid; and (ii) ADA, globulins and fluid appearance. For cancer: (i) patient age, fluid appearance, macrophage percentage and presence of atypical cells in the pleural fluid; and (ii) as for (i) excluding atypical cells. Application of the models to the 64 pleural effusions showed accuracy higher than 85% for all models. Conclusions: The proposed models were effective in suggesting pleural tuberculosis or cancer.

Association between degenerative aortic valve disease and long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors: results of the longitudinal population-based KORA/MONICA survey

Degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD), a common finding in the elderly, is associated with an increased risk of death due to cardiovascular causes. Taking advantage of its longitudinal design, this study evaluates the prevalence of DAVD and its temporal associations with long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. We studied 953 subjects (aged 25-74 years) from a random sample of German residents. Risk factors had been determined at a baseline investigation in 1994/95. At a follow-up investigation, 10 years later, standardized echocardiography determined aortic valve morphology and aortic valve area (AVA) as well as left ventricular geometry and function. At the follow-up study, the overall prevalence of DAVD was 28%. In logistic regression models adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline age (OR 2.0 [1.7-2.3] per 10 years, P < 0.001), active smoking (OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4], P = 0.009) and elevated total cholesterol levels (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3] per increase of 20 mg/dL, P < 0.001) were significantly related to DAVD at follow-up. Furthermore, age, baseline status of smoking, and total cholesterol level were significant predictors of a smaller AVA at follow-up study. In contrast, hypertension and obesity had no detectable relationship with long-term changes of aortic valve structure. In the general population we observed a high prevalence of DAVD that is associated with long-term exposure to elevated cholesterol levels and active smoking. These findings strengthen the notion that smoking cessation and cholesterol lowering are promising treatment targets for prevention of DAVD.

Nonhuman primate models and the failure of the Merck HIV-1 vaccine in humans

The adenovirus type 5 (Ad5)-based vaccine developed by Merck failed to either prevent HIV-1 infection or suppress viral load in subsequently infected subjects in the STEP human Phase 2b efficacy trial. Analogous vaccines had previously also failed in the simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) challenge-rhesus macaque model. In contrast, vaccine protection studies that used challenge with a chimeric simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV89.6P) in macaques did not predict the human trial results. Ad5 vector -based vaccines did not protect macaques from infection after SHIV89.6P challenge but did cause a substantial reduction in viral load and a preservation of CD4(+) T cell counts after infection, findings that were not reproduced in the human trials. Although the SIV challenge model is incompletely validated, we propose that its expanded use can help facilitate the prioritization of candidate HIV-1 vaccines, ensuring that resources are focused on the most promising candidates. Vaccine designers must now develop T cell vaccine strategies that reduce viral load after heterologous challenge.

HbA(1c) as a risk factor for heart failure in persons with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Heart failure (HF) incidence in diabetes in both the presence and absence of CHD is rising. Prospective population-based studies can help describe the relationship between HbA(1c), a measure of glycaemia control, and HF risk. We studied the incidence of HF hospitalisation or death among 1,827 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study with diabetes and no evidence of HF at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models included age, sex, race, education, health insurance status, alcohol consumption, BMI and WHR, and major CHD risk factors (BP level and medications, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol levels, and smoking). In this population of persons with diabetes, crude HF incidence rates per 1,000 person-years were lower in the absence of CHD (incidence rate 15.5 for CHD-negative vs 56.4 for CHD-positive, p < 0.001). The adjusted HR of HF for each 1% higher HbA(1c) was 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.25) for the non-CHD group and 1.20 (95% CI 1.04-1.40) for the CHD group. When the analysis was limited to HF cases which occurred in the absence of prevalent or incident CHD (during follow-up) the adjusted HR remained 1.20 (95% CI 1.11-1.29). These data suggest HbA(1c) is an independent risk factor for incident HF in persons with diabetes with and without CHD. Long-term clinical trials of tight glycaemic control should quantify the impact of different treatment regimens on HF risk reduction.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

Neurobiology of panic disorder: From animal models to brain neuroimaging

Evidence from animal models of anxiety has led to the hypothesis that serotonin enhances inhibitory avoidance (related to anxiety) in the forebrain, but inhibits one-way escape (panic) in the midbrain periaqueductal gray (PAG). Stressing the difference between these emotions, neuroendocrinological results indicate that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis is activated by anticipatory anxiety, but not by panic attack nor by electrical stimulation of the rat PAG. Functional neuroimaging has shown activation of the insula and upper brain stem (including PAG), as well as deactivation of the anterior cingulated cortex (ACC) during experimental panic attacks. Voxel-based morphometric analysis of brain magnetic resonance images has shown a grey matter volume increase in the insula and upper brain stem, and a decrease in the ACC of panic patients at rest, as compared to healthy controls. The insula and the ACC detect interoceptive stimuli, which are overestimated by panic patients. It is suggested that these brain areas and the PAG are involved in the pathophysiology of panic disorder. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of implementing an exclusively dedicated respiratory isolation room in a Brazilian tertiary emergency department

Background Occupational risk due to airborne disease challenges healthcare institutions. Environmental measures are effective but their cost-effectiveness is still debatable and most of the capacity planning is based on occupational rates. Better indices to plan and evaluate capacity are needed. Goal To evaluate the impact of installing an exclusively dedicated respiratory isolation room (EDRIR) in a tertiary emergency department (ED) determined by a time-to-reach-facility method. Methods A group of patients in need of respiratory isolation were first identified-group I (2004; 29 patients; 44.1 +/- 3.4 years) and the occupational rate and time intervals (arrival to diagnosis, diagnosis to respiratory isolation indication and indication to effective isolation) were determined and it was estimated that adding an EDRIR would have a significant impact over the time to isolation. After implementing the EDRIR, a second group of patients was gathered in the same period of the year-group II (2007; 50 patients; 43.4 +/- 1.8 years) and demographic and functional parameters were recorded to evaluate time to isolation. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, gender and inhospital respiratory isolation room availability were obtained. Results Implementing an EDRIR decreased the time from arrival to indication of respiratory isolation (27.5 +/- 9.3 X 3.7 +/- 2.0; p = 0.0180) and from indication to effective respiratory isolation (13.3 +/- 3.0 X 2.94 +/- 1.06; p = 0.003) but not the respiratory isolation duration and total hospital stay. The impact on crude isolation rates was very significant (8.9 X 75.4/100.000 patients; p < 0.001). The HR for effective respiratory isolation was 26.8 (95% CI 7.42 to 96.9) p < 0.001 greater for 2007. Conclusion Implementing an EDRIR in a tertiary ED significantly reduced the time to respiratory isolation.

The neuroprotective effect of dental pulp cells in models of Alzheimer`s and Parkinson`s disease

Aim of the present study was to investigate the neuroprotective effect of dental pulp cells (DPCs) in in vitro models of Alzheimer and Parkinson disease. Primary cultures of hippocampal and ventral mesencephalic neurons were treated for 24 h with amyloid beta (A beta(1-42)) peptide 1-42 and 6-OHDA, respectively. DPCs isolated from adult rat incisors were previously cultured in tissue culture inserts and added to the neuron cultures 2 days prior to neurotoxin treatment. Cell viability was assessed by the MTT assay. The co-culture with DPCs significantly attenuated 6-OHDA and A beta(1-42)-induced toxicity in primary cultures of mesencephalic and hippocampal neurons, and lead to an increase in neuronal viability in untreated cultures, suggesting a neurotrophic effect in both models. Furthermore, human dental pulp cells expressed a neuronal phenotype and produced the neurotrophic factors NGF, GDNF, BDNF, and BMP2 shown by microarray screening and antibody staining for the representative proteins. DPCs protected primary neurons in in vitro models of Alzheimer`s and Parkinson`s disease and can be viewed as possible candidates for studies on cell-based therapy.

Precise Insertion of Orthodontic Miniscrews with a Stereolithographic Surgical Guide Based on Cone Beam Computed Tomography Data: A Pilot Study

Purpose: Orthodontic miniscrews are commonly used to achieve absolute anchorage during tooth movement. One of the most frequent complications is screw loss as a result of root contact. Increased precision during the process of miniscrew insertion would help prevent screw loss and potential root damage, improving treatment outcomes. Stereo lithographic surgical guides have been commonly used for prosthetic implants to increase the precision of insertion. The objective of this paper was to describe the use of a stereolithographic surgical guide suitable for one-component orthodontic miniscrews based on cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) data and to evaluate implant placement accuracy. Materials and Methods: Acrylic splints were adapted to the dental arches of four patients, and six radiopaque reference points were filled with gutta-percha. The patients were submitted to CBCT while they wore the occlusal splint. Another series of images was captured with the splint alone. After superimposition and segmentation, miniscrew insertion was simulated using planning software that allowed the user to check the implant position in all planes and in three dimensions. In a rapid-prototyping machine, a stereolithographic guide was fabricated with metallic sleeves located at the insertion points to allow for three-dimensional control of the pilot bur. The surgical guide was worn during surgery. After implant insertion, each patient was submitted to CBCT a second time to verify the implant position and the accuracy of the placement of the miniscrews. Results: The average differences between the planned and inserted positions for the ten miniscrews were 0.86 mm at the coronal end, 0.71 mm at the center, and 0.87 mm at the apical tip. The average angular discrepancy was 1.76 degrees. Conclusions: The use of stereolithographic surgical guides based on CBCT data allows for accurate orthodontic mini screw insertion without damaging neighboring anatomic structures. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2011;26:860-865

Comparison between Eysenck's and Gray's models of personality in the prediction of motivational work criteria

Impulsivity based on Gray's [Gray, J. A. (1982) The neuropsychology of anxiety: an enquiry into the function of the septo-hippocampal system. New York: Oxford University Press: (1991). The neurophysiology of temperament. In J. Strelau & A. Angleitner. Explorations in temperament: international perspectives on theory and measurement. London. Plenum Press]. physiological model of personality was hypothesised to be more predictive of goal oriented criteria within the workplace than scales derived From Eysenck's [Eysenck. H.J. (1967). The biological basis of personality. Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thompson.] physiological model of personality. Results confirmed the hypothesis and also showed that Gray's scale of Impulsivity was generally a better predictor than attributional style and interest in money. Results were interpreted as providing support for Gray's Behavioural Activation System which moderates response to reward. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delayed emergence of bovine leukemia virus after vaccination with a protective cytotoxic T cell-based vaccine

In a previous study eight MHC class I-matched sheep were vaccinated with a minimal cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) peptide epitope vaccine and were challenged with the retrovirus, bovine leukemia virus (BLV). Half the vaccinated animals remained PCR negative after challenge, whereas the remaining half and the placebo group became PCR positive within 4 weeks postchallenge (Hislop AD, Good MF, Mateo L, Gardner J, Gatei MH, Daniel RCW, Meyers BV, Lavin MF, and Suhrbier A: Nat Med 1998; 4: 1193). Here we show that neither epitope mutations nor processing differences explained why half the peptide-vaccinated animals failed to resist the BLV challenge. However, in these animals the development of BLV-induced lymphosarcomas was significantly delayed compared with the placebo group, suggesting a role for CTLs in preventing retrovirus-induced cancers. Importantly, two of the initially protected animals become PCR positive after similar to1.5 years, indicating extended suppression but not elimination of challenge virus by vaccine-induced CTLs. The late emergence of virus could not be explained by epitope escape mutations or the loss of memory CTL responses. We speculate that high levels of effector CTL may be needed to protect animals from a postchallenge viremia and maintenance of such effector CTLs, rather than memory CTLs, may be required to prevent subsequent emergence of virus from latent pools.

The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Genetics of Serum Dehydroepiandrosterone Sulfate and Its Relationship to Insulin in a Population-Based Cohort of Twin Subjects

Previous studies have shown a significant effect of insulin administration on serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S) concentration and its metabolic rate, with evidence for the effect in men, but not in women. This could lead to differences in the sources of variation in serum DHEA-S between men and women and in its covariation with insulin concentration. This study aimed to test whether these hypotheses were supported in a sample of healthy adult twins. Serum DHEA-S (n=2287) and plasma insulin (n=2436) were measured in samples from adult male and female twins recruited through the Australian Twin Registry. Models of genetic and environmental sources of variation and covariation were tested against the data. DHEA-S showed substantial genetic effects in both men and women after adjustment for covariates, including sex, age, body mass index, and time since the last meal. There was no significant phenotypic or genetic correlation between DHEA-S and insulin in either men or women. Despite the experimental evidence for insulin infusion producing a reduction in serum DHEA-S and some effect of meals on the observed DHEA-S concentration, there were no associations between insulin and DHEA-S at the population level. Variations in DHEA-S are due to age, sex, obesity, and substantial polygenic genetic influences.