Estimation of wind storm impacts over Western Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach

A statistical–dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses. Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method's functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms.

The central European floods of August 2002: Part 1 - Rainfall periods and flood development

Record-breaking rainfall amounts and intensities were observed at several raingauges in central Europe during the first half of August 2002 (Fig. 1). They produced flash floods in small rivers in the Erz Mountains, the Bohemian Forest and in Lower Austria (see Fig. 2), followed by record-breaking floods of larger rivers fed from these areas. The Vltava submerged parts of the city of Prague on 13± 15 August, and subsequently the Elbe flooded parts of Dresden and further villages and towns located downstream. The gauge level of 9.40m measured at Dresden on 17 August 2002 is the highest level since 1275, exceeding the former maximum level of 8.77m recorded in 1845 (Grollmann and Simon 2002). Parts of the Danube catchment were also affected by severe flooding. There were 100 fatalities connected with the floods in central Europe, and the economic loss is estimated at 9 billion Euros for Germany (German government’s estimate), 3 billion Euros for Austria, and 2.5 billion Euros for the Czech Republic (estimates from Boyle 2002). The event thus replaced the European winter storm Lothar of December 1999 (Ulbrich et al. 2001) as the most expensive weather-related catastrophe in Europe in recent decades (see Cornford 2002). In this study, we give an overview of the exceptional rainfall experienced over wide areas on 12/13 August 2002, and the resulting floods. Further events during early August 2002, in particular the event on 6/7 August in Lower Austria, are briefly mentioned.

Celtic censure: representing Wales in eighteenth-century Germany

Drawing on Pierre Bourdieu's notion of regionalist discourse as the performative legitimation of specific frontiers, this article examines how the English traveller Samuel Jackson Pratt mediated a picture of the Welsh to late eighteenth-century readers in his Gleanings Through Wales, Holland and Westphalia (1795). This process of mediation was further complicated by the translation of this work into German as the Aehrenlese auf einer Reise durch Wallis, which appeared with the Leipzig publisher Lincke in 1798. While this work made an important contribution to German Celtophilia in the Romantic period, the German translator was careful to omit its more Sternean passages, in favour of factual narrative. Pratt's account of his travel through Wales, mediated in turn to a German audience through its Leipzig translator, therefore embodies several layers of cultural transfer that generate a complex and multifaceted image of Wales at the close of the eighteenth century.

Comparative Analysis of ESBL-Positive Escherichia coli isolates from Animals and Humans from the UK, the Netherlands and Germany

The putative virulence and antimicrobial resistance gene contents of extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-positive E. coli (n=629) isolated between 2005 and 2009 from humans, animals and animal food products in Germany, The Netherlands and the UK were compared using a microarray approach to test the suitability of this approach with regard to determining their similarities. A selection of isolates (n=313) were also analysed by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Isolates harbouring blaCTX-M-group-1 dominated (66%, n=418) and originated from both animals and cases of human infections in all three countries; 23% (n=144) of all isolates contained both blaCTX-M-group-1 and blaOXA-1-like genes, predominantly from humans (n=127) and UK cattle (n=15). The antimicrobial resistance and virulence gene profiles of this collection of isolates were highly diverse. A substantial number of human isolates (32%, n=87) did not share more than 40% similarity (based on the Jaccard coefficient) with animal isolates. A further 43% of human isolates from the three countries (n=117) were at least 40% similar to each other and to five isolates from UK cattle and one each from Dutch chicken meat and a German dog; the members of this group usually harboured genes such as mph(A), mrx, aac(6’)-Ib, catB3, blaOXA-1-like and blaCTX-M-group-1. forty-four per cent of the MLST-typed isolates in this group belonged to ST131 (n=18) and 22% to ST405 (n=9), all from humans. Among animal isolates subjected to MLST (n=258), only 1.2% (n=3) were more than 70% similar to human isolates in gene profiles and shared the same MLST clonal complex with the corresponding human isolates. The results suggest that minimising human-to-human transmission is essential to control the spread of ESBL-positive E. coli in humans.

Structures and relationships: women partners' careers in Germany and the UK

Purpose – This paper aims to highlight differences in women's experiences of advancement to partnership in accountancy firms in Germany and the UK and consider the ways in which such differences may be constituted by the institutional context in which they occurred. Design/methodology/approach – This research is based on 60 semi-structured interviews with women partners in Germany and the UK. Techniques adopted from grounded theory were applied. Research limitations/implications – This qualitative research is context-specific and given its cross-national, interdisciplinary nature is limited to the extent that findings cannot be generalised beyond the studied scope. Practical implications – The study points to cross-national differences in women's career advancement in accountancy firms. The findings support extant research suggesting that structured performance evaluation and hiring systems – while not without flaws – are likely more gender-neutral. In addition, the study highlights the potential of headhunters and recruitment agents as an important tool for women to navigate their way out of career culs-de-sac. Originality/value – This research provides unique insights into women partners' experiences of career advancement and, through its interdisciplinary nature, demonstrates the usefulness of employing institutional frameworks in qualitative in-depth studies of this kind

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Eastern partnership migrants in Germany: outcomes, potentials and challenges

Despite the ongoing dialogue on facilitating mobility between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, very little is known about the magnitude and characteristics of migration from these countries. We find that EaP migrants experience worse labor market outcomes than other migrant groups, but current and potential migrants hold qualifications in those areas were skill shortages are expected. Therefore, the monitoring and supervision of EaP integration will be consequential in order to understand how much of the current brain waste is driven by poor assessment of foreign qualifications, and to unleash the potential of migration for the German economy.

Diversity of STs, plasmids and ESBL genes among Escherichia coli from humans, animals and food in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK

This study aimed to compare ESBL-producing Escherichia coli causing infections in humans with infecting or commensal isolates from animals and isolates from food of animal origin in terms of the strain types, the ESBL gene present and the plasmids that carry the respective ESBL genes. A collection of 353 ESBL-positive E. coli isolates from the UK, the Netherlands and Germany were studied by MLST and ESBL genes were identified. Characterization of ESBL gene-carrying plasmids was performed using PCR-based replicon typing. Moreover, IncI1-Iγ and IncN plasmids were characterized by plasmid MLST. The ESBL-producing E. coli represented 158 different STs with ST131, ST10 and ST88 being the most common. Overall, blaCTX-M-1 was the most frequently detected ESBL gene, followed by blaCTX-M-15, which was the most common ESBL gene in the human isolates. The most common plasmid replicon type overall was IncI1-Iγ followed by multiple IncF replicons. ESBL genes were present in a wide variety of E. coli STs. IncI1-Iγ plasmids that carried the blaCTX-M-1 gene were widely disseminated amongst STs in isolates from animals and humans, whereas other plasmids and STs appeared to be more restricted to isolates from specific hosts.

O pacificador beligerante: Alberto José Gonçalves - um padre na política paranaense da 1ª República (1892-1896)

Pós-graduação em História - FCHS

Avaliação da qualidade de vida de pacientes com Diabetes Mellitus tipo 1: dados do primeiro estudo multicêntrico no Brasil

O Diabetes Mellitus tipo 1 (DM1) é a endocrinopatia mais comum da infância e adolescência e impacta negativamente na qualidade de vida (QV). O EuroQol é um instrumento que afere o estado de saúde e vem sendo utilizado na grande maioria dos estudos multicêntricos mundiais em diabetes e tem se mostrado uma ferramenta extremamente útil e confiável. O objetivo desse estudo é avaliar a QV de pacientes com DM1 do Brasil, país de proporções continentais, por meio da análise do EuroQol. Para isso, realizou-se estudo retrospectivo e transversal, no qual foram analisados questionários de pacientes com DM1, respondidos no período de dezembro de 2008 a dezembro de 2010, em 28 centros de pesquisa de 20 cidades das quatro regiões do país (sudeste, norte/nordeste, sul e centro-oeste). Foram também coletados dados sobre complicações crônicas micro e macrovasculares e perfil lipídico. A avaliação da qualidade de vida pelo EuroQol mostra que a nota média atribuída ao estado geral de saúde é nitidamente menor que a encontrada em dois outros estudos populacionais com DM1 realizados na Europa (EQ-VAS da Alemanha, Holanda e Brasil foram de 82,1 ± 14; 81 ± 15 e 72 ± 22, respectivamente). O EuroQol demonstra que a região Norte-Nordeste apresenta melhor índice na avaliação do estado geral de saúde quando comparada a região Sudeste e menor frequência de ansiedade-depressão autorreferidas, quando comparada às demais regiões do país (Norte-Nordeste = 1,53 ± 0,6, Sudeste = 1,65 ± 0,7, Sul = 1,72 ± 0,7 e Centro-Oeste = 1,67 ± 0,7; p <0,05). Adicionalmente, diversas variáveis conhecidas (idade, duração do DM, prática de atividade física, HbA1c, glicemia de jejum e presença de complicações crônicas se correlacionaram com a QV (r = -0,1, p <0,05; r = -0,1, p <0,05; r = -0,1, p <0,05; r = -0,2, p <0,05; r = -0,1, p <0,05 e r= -0,1, p <0,05, respectivamente). Esse é o primeiro estudo a avaliar a qualidade de vida de pacientes com DM1 a nível populacional no hemisfério sul. Nossos dados indicam uma pior qualidade de vida dos pacientes com DM 1 no Brasil quando comparado a dados de países europeus. Apesar de ter sido encontrado uma inferior duração do DM e menor presença de complicações microvasculares na região Norte/ Nordeste, quando comparada à outras regiões, nossos dados sugerem a existência de elementos adicionais responsáveis pela melhor QV e menor presença de ansiedade/depressão encontradas nesta região. Novos estudos são necessários para identificar esses possíveis fatores.

Vertical variation in autumn leaf phenology of Fagus sylvatica L. in southern Germany

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)