CSI Lincoln : an investigation into a declining housing market

The residential property market in New Zealand has been experiencing a boom and bubble period from 2001 through to mid 2007. Following a number of increases in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank and a decline in net migration numbers the housing market was perceived to be over inflated and due for a major correction. Numerous media, Government Departments, property experts and economists have been predicting significant reductions in the median price of residential property throughout New Zealand. This paper will analyse house prices in specific socio-economic locations within Christchurch over the past 12 months to determine how significant the current housing decline is. This study will review the change in residential property prices, variations in property listings since April 2008, sale volumes and days on the market across a range of housing sectors to determine the extent and range of any residential property downturn in the NZ recession.

Vision, functional and cognitive determinants of motor vehicle incidents in older drivers

Background: The proportion of older individuals in the driving population is predicted to increase in the next 50 years. This has important implications for driving safety as abilities which are important for safe driving, such as vision (which accounts for the majority of the sensory input required for driving), processing ability and cognition have been shown to decline with age. The current methods employed for screening older drivers upon re-licensure are also vision based. This study, which investigated social, behavioural and professional aspects involved with older drivers, aimed to determine: (i) if the current visual standards in place for testing upon re-licensure are effective in reducing the older driver fatality rate in Australia; (ii) if the recommended visual standards are actually implemented as part of the testing procedures by Australian optometrists; and (iii) if there are other non-standardised tests which may be better at predicting the on-road incident-risk (including near misses and minor incidents) in older drivers than those tests recommended in the standards. Methods: For the first phase of the study, state-based age- and gender-stratified numbers of older driver fatalities for 2000-2003 were obtained from the Australian Transportation Safety Bureau database. Poisson regression analyses of fatality rates were considered by renewal frequency and jurisdiction (as separate models), adjusting for possible confounding variables of age, gender and year. For the second phase, all practising optometrists in Australia were surveyed on the vision tests they conduct in consultations relating to driving and their knowledge of vision requirements for older drivers. Finally, for the third phase of the study to investigate determinants of on-road incident risk, a stratified random sample of 600 Brisbane residents aged 60 years and were selected and invited to participate using an introductory letter explaining the project requirements. In order to capture the number and type of road incidents which occurred for each participant over 12 months (including near misses and minor incidents), an important component of the prospective research study was the development and validation of a driving diary. The diary was a tool in which incidents that occurred could be logged at that time (or very close in time to which they occurred) and thus, in comparison with relying on participant memory over time, recall bias of incident occurrence was minimised. Association between all visual tests, cognition and scores obtained for non-standard functional tests with retrospective and prospective incident occurrence was investigated. Results: In the first phase,rivers aged 60-69 years had a 33% lower fatality risk (Rate Ratio [RR] = 0.75, 95% CI 0.32-1.77) in states with vision testing upon re-licensure compared with states with no vision testing upon re-licensure, however, because the CIs are wide, crossing 1.00, this result should be regarded with caution. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older (RR=1.17, CI 0.64-2.13) did not differ between states with and without license renewal procedures, indicating no apparent benefit in vision testing legislation. For the second phase of the study, nearly all optometrists measured visual acuity (VA) as part of a vision assessment for re-licensing, however, 20% of optometrists did not perform any visual field (VF) testing and only 20% routinely performed automated VF on older drivers, despite the standards for licensing advocating automated VF as part of the vision standard. This demonstrates the need for more effective communication between the policy makers and those responsible for carrying out the standards. It may also indicate that the overall higher driver fatality rate in jurisdictions with vision testing requirements is resultant as the tests recommended by the standards are only partially being conducted by optometrists. Hence a standardised protocol for the screening of older drivers for re-licensure across the nation must be established. The opinions of Australian optometrists with regard to the responsibility of reporting older drivers who fail to meet the licensing standards highlighted the conflict between maintaining patient confidentiality or upholding public safety. Mandatory reporting requirements of those drivers who fail to reach the standards necessary for driving would minimise potential conflict between the patient and their practitioner, and help maintain patient trust and goodwill. The final phase of the PhD program investigated the efficacy of vision, functional and cognitive tests to discriminate between at-risk and safe older drivers. Nearly 80% of the participants experienced an incident of some form over the prospective 12 months, with the total incident rate being 4.65/10 000 km. Sixty-three percent reported having a near miss and 28% had a minor incident. The results from the prospective diary study indicate that the current vision screening tests (VA and VF) used for re-licensure do not accurately predict older drivers who are at increased odds of having an on-road incident. However, the variation in visual measurements of the cohort was narrow, also affecting the results seen with the visual functon questionnaires. Hence a larger cohort with greater variability should be considered for a future study. A slightly lower cognitive level (as measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]) did show an association with incident involvement as did slower reaction time (RT), however the Useful-Field-of-View (UFOV) provided the most compelling results of the study. Cut-off values of UFOV processing (>23.3ms), divided attention (>113ms), selective attention (>258ms) and overall score (moderate/ high/ very high risk) were effective in determining older drivers at increased odds of having any on-road incident and the occurrence of minor incidents. Discussion: The results have shown that for the 60-69 year age-group, there is a potential benefit in testing vision upon licence renewal. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older indicated no benefit in vision testing legislation and suggests a need for inclusion of screening tests which better predict on-road incidents. Although VA is routinely performed by Australian optometrists on older drivers renewing their licence, VF is not. Therefore there is a need for a protocol to be developed and administered which would result in standardised methods conducted throughout the nation for the screening of older drivers upon re-licensure. Communication between the community, policy makers and those conducting the protocol should be maximised. By implementing a standardised screening protocol which incorporates a level of mandatory reporting by the practitioner, the ethical dilemma of breaching patient confidentiality would also be resolved. The tests which should be included in this screening protocol, however, cannot solely be ones which have been implemented in the past. In this investigation, RT, MMSE and UFOV were shown to be better determinants of on-road incidents in older drivers than VA and VF, however, as previously mentioned, there was a lack of variability in visual status within the cohort. Nevertheless, it is the recommendation from this investigation, that subject to appropriate sensitivity and specificity being demonstrated in the future using a cohort with wider variation in vision, functional performance and cognition, these tests of cognition and information processing should be added to the current protocol for the screening of older drivers which may be conducted at licensing centres across the nation.

Mailed treatment to augment primary care for alcohol disorders : a randomised controlled trial

Introduction and Aims: Remote delivery of interventions is needed to address large numbers of people with alcohol use disorders who are spread over large areas. Previous correspondence trials typically examined its effects as stand-alone treatment. This study aimed to test whether adding postal treatment to general practitioner (GP) support would lower alcohol use more than GP intervention alone. Design and Methods: A single-blind, randomised controlled trial with a crossover design was conducted over 12 months on 204 people with alcohol use disorders. Participants in an immediate correspondence condition received treatment over the first 3 months; those receiving delayed treatment received it in months 3–6. Results: Few participants were referred from GPs, and little intervention was offered by them. At 3 months, 78% of participants remained in the study. Those in immediate treatment showed greater reductions in alcohol per week, drinking days, anxiety, depression and distress than those in the delayed condition. However, post-treatment and follow-up outcomes still showed elevated alcohol use, depression, anxiety and distress. Greater baseline anxiety predicted better alcohol outcomes, although more mental distress at baseline predicted dropout. Discussion and Conclusions: The study gave consistent results with those from previous research on correspondence treatments, and showed that high levels of participant engagement over 3 months can be obtained. Substantial reductions in alcohol use are seen, with indications that they are well maintained. However, many participants continue to show high-risk alcohol use and psychological distress.

"I'm thinking 'bout moving in"... An examination of the issues impacting on the recruitment of secondary school graduates to the library and information profession

In recent years concern has been expressed internationally about the future of the library and information services (LIS) profession: recruitment and retention, changing skill sets and declining numbers of people choosing librarianship as a career are all factors contributing to an uncertain future. One area yet explored in any depth is the topic of why LIS studies are not perceived, let alone promoted, as a good first professional qualification for high school graduates. This paper considers the professional literature that examines the uptake of librarianship as a first qualification by school leavers and discusses, in the context of the Australian library sector, the role of professional associations, library schools, National and State Libraries, as well as individual libraries and librarians. Examples of best practice are presented to highlight the opportunities for inspiring and motivating students through well structured and stimulating work experience programs. The topic is relevant to all librarians who are interested in the future of the LIS profession. It is argued that the focus of the present conference on ‘moving up’ and ‘moving on’ can only have real significance when the profession has a more complete understanding of the barriers to and the opportunities for ‘moving in’.

The status of Australian nurse practitioners : the first national census

A five-section questionnaire was mailed to all 234 authorised Australian nurse practitioners in late 2007. An 85% response rate was achieved (202 responses). Respondents had a mean age of 47.0 years and 84.2% were women. Only 145 nurse practitioners (72% of respondents) reported being employed in Australia at the time of the census. Emergency nurse practitioners were the most commonly employed nationally (26.9%). Nearly one third of employed nurse practitioners reported that they were still awaiting approval to prescribe medications despite this being a core legislated skill. Over 70% stated that lack of Medicare provider numbers and lack of authority to prescribe through the Pharmaceut ical Benef its Scheme was extremely limiting to their practice. These findings are consistent with the international literature describing establishment of reformative

External pressure in the hardening of phosphate in tribofilm on iron surfaces

Purpose: In the present work we consider our (in progress) spectroscopy study of zinc and iron phosphates under the influence external high pressure to determine zinc ion change coordination from tetrahedral to octahedral (or hexahedral) structure.----- Design/methodology/approach: The standard equipment is the optical high pressure cell with diamond (DAC). The DAC is assembled and then vibrational or electronic spectra are collected by mounting the cell in an infrared, Raman, EXAFS or UV-visible spectrometer.----- Findings: Mechanism by which zinc and iron methaphosphate material is transformed to glassy meta-phosphate is enhancing mechanical properties of tribofilm. The two decades of intensive study demonstrates that Zn (II) and Fe (III) ions participate to cross-link network under friction, hardening the phosphate.----- Research limitations/implications: Transition metal atoms with d orbital have flexible coordination numbers, for example zinc acts as a cross-linking agent increasing hardness, by changing coordination from tetrahedral to octahedral. Perhaps the external pressure effect on the [Zn–(O-P-)4 ] complex causes a transformation to an [Zn –(O-P-)6] grouping.----- Originality/value: This paper analyses high-pressure spectroscopy which has been applied for the investigation of 3D transition metal ions in solids. When studying pressure effects on coordination compounds structure, we can expect changes in ground electronic state (spin-crossovers), electronic spectra due to structural distortions (piezochromism), and changes in the ligand field causing shifts in the electronic transitions.

Behaviour disorders and teacher negligence

The purpose of this paper is to examine the legal implications of the continuing rise in the number of school children diagnosed with behaviour disorders. Not only are teachers now subject to a dense grid of legal regulation, they are also increasingly vulnerable to actions in tort. It will be argued here that as more and more children are labelled ‘disordered’, the duty of care become more onerous, and hence harder for teachers to meet. As a consequence, teachers are more likely to face claims of negligence. It is concluded that while the schooling system needs to retain a healthy scepticism about each new pathologising disorder that seeks special status for its sufferers, it also needs to provide greater training and resources for teachers regarding disorder management. It is also concluded that recent changes to negligence law regarding the issue of ‘reasonable foreseeability’ within breach of duty of care, may not be as significant as might have been hoped by the teaching community. Indeed, the elevated standard of care required by the increasing numbers of disordered pupils, places teachers in an ever more difficult legal position.

Real estate agency practice and profitability : an analysis of house sales and agency profitability in Sydney

Large cities provide a broad range of residential property types, as well as a range of socio-economic locations. This results in a significant variation in residential property prices across both the city itself and the individual suburbs. The only constant across such a diverse range of residential property is the need for the majority of residential property owners to employ the services of a real estate agent to sell their property or to purchase a residential property. This paper will analyse the Sydney residential property market over the period 1994 to 2002 to determine the change in real estate offices numbers over the period, the profitability of real estate agency offices based on the residential house price performance of houses and units in these specific locations and the extent of changing residential house prices on agency profitability. Suburbs have been selected to provide a full range of housing types, socio-economic areas, older established and developing residential suburbs and location from the

The role of rural land in mixed asset investment portfolios

Rural land has not always been considered as a major long-term investment with both institutional investors and absentee owners in countries such as U.K. and Australia. Although rural land is included in both single asset and mixed asset portfolios in the U.S, it is not at the same levels as either commercial or industrial property. Rural land occupies over 50% of the total area of Australia, and comprises over 115,000 economic farm properties (excludes rural residential, hobby farms and rural lifestyle blocks. However, less than 1.6% of the total economic farm numbers are actually owned by corporate or institutional investors. This low level of corporate involvement in the Australian rural property market has limited both the investment performance research and inclusion of this rural land type in both property and mixed asset investment portfolios. In the U.S. rural land is also the most extensive real estate type based on total area occupied. The United States Department of Agriculture statistics (1998) show that in 1997 there were 2.06 million farms in the U.S., covering 968 million acres, with a total value of $912 billion and generating an annual income of $202 billion. The level of corporate ownership of farms in the U.S. is also higher than the level of corporate farm ownership in Australia. This high level of institutional ownership in rural land in U.S has provided the opportunity for the rural property asset class to be analysed in relation to it’s investment performance and possible role in a mixed asset or mixed property investment portfolio.

Designing for engagement : building IT systems

Context The School of Information Technology at QUT has recently undertaken a major restructuring of their Bachelor of Information Technology (BIT) course. Some of the aims of this restructuring include a reduction in first year attrition and to provide an attractive degree course that meets both student and industry expectations. Emphasis has been placed on the first semester in the context of retaining students by introducing a set of four units that complement one another and provide introductory material on technology, programming and related skills, and generic skills that will aid the students throughout their undergraduate course and in their careers. This discussion relates to one of these four fist semester units, namely Building IT Systems. The aim of this unit is to create small Information Technology (IT) systems that use programming or scripting, databases as either standalone applications or web applications. In the prior history of teaching introductory computer programming at QUT, programming has been taught as a stand alone subject and integration of computer applications with other systems such as databases and networks was not undertaken until students had been given a thorough grounding in those topics as well. Feedback has indicated that students do not believe that working with a database requires programming skills. In fact, the teaching of the building blocks of computer applications have been compartmentalized and taught in isolation from each other. The teaching of introductory computer programming has been an industry requirement of IT degree courses as many jobs require at least some knowledge of the topic. Yet, computer programming is not a skill that all students have equal capabilities of learning (Bruce et al., 2004) and this is clearly shown by the volume of publications dedicated to this topic in the literature over a broad period of time (Eckerdal & Berglund, 2005; Mayer, 1981; Winslow, 1996). The teaching of this introductory material has been done pretty much the same way over the past thirty years. During this period of time that introductory computer programming courses have been taught at QUT, a number of different programming languages and programming paradigms have been used and different approaches to teaching and learning have been attempted in an effort to find the golden thread that would allow students to learn this complex topic. Unfortunately, computer programming is not a skill that can be learnt in one semester. Some basics can be learnt but it can take many years to master (Norvig, 2001). Faculty data typically has shown a bimodal distribution of results for students undertaking introductory programming courses with a high proportion of students receiving a high mark and a high proportion of students receiving a low or failing mark. This indicates that there are students who understand and excel with the introductory material while there is another group who struggle to understand the concepts and practices required to be able to translate a specification or problem statement into a computer program that achieves what is being requested. The consequence of a large group of students failing the introductory programming course has been a high level of attrition amongst first year students. This attrition level does not provide good continuity in student numbers in later years of the degree program and the current approach is not seen as sustainable.

Sewage disposal and wildlife health in Antarctica

Sewage and its microbiology, treatment and disposal are important to the topic of Antarctic wildlife health because disposal of untreated sewage effluent into the Antarctic marine environment is both allowed and commonplace. Human sewage contains enteric bacteria as normal flora, and has the potential to contain parasites, bacteria and viruses which may prove pathogenic to Antarctic wildlife. Treatment can reduce levels of micro-organisms in sewage effluent, but is not a requirement of the Environmental Protocol to the Antarctic Treaty (the Madrid Protocol). In contrast, the deliberate release of non-native organisms for any other reason is prohibited. Hence, disposal of sewage effluent to the marine environment is the only activity routinely undertaken in Antarctica knowing that it will likely result in the release of large numbers of potentially non-native species. When the Madrid Protocol was negotiated, the decision to allow release of untreated sewage effluent was considered the only pragmatic option, as a prohibition would have been costly, and may not have been achievable by many Antarctic operators. In addition, at that time the potential for transmission of pathogens to wildlife from sewage was not emphasised as a significant potential risk. Since then, the transmission of disease-causing agents between species is more widely recognised and it is now timely to consider the risks of continued discharge of sewage effluent in Antarctica and whether there are practical alternatives.

Behaviour disorders and the negligent teacher

The purpose of this paper is to examine the legal implications of the continuing rise in the number of school children diagnosed with behaviour disorders. Not only are teachers now subject to a dense grid of legal regulation, they are also increasingly vulnerable to actions in tort. It will be argued here that as more and more children are labelled ‘disordered’, then the concomitant duty of care requirements for teachers becomes more onerous. As a consequence, teachers are less likely to be able to defend themselves against claims of negligence. It is concluded that while the schooling system needs to retain a healthy scepticism about each new pathologising disorder that seeks special status for its sufferers, it also needs to provide greater training and resources for teachers regarding disorder management. It is also concluded that recent changes to negligence law regarding the issue of ‘reasonable foreseeability’ within breach of duty of care, may not be as significant as might have been hoped by the teaching community. Indeed, the elevated standard of care, as required by increasing numbers of disordered pupils, place teachers in an ever more difficult legal position.

Investigation into submicrometer particle and gaseous emissions from airport ground running procedures

Emissions from airport operations are of significant concern because of their potential impact on local air quality and human health. The currently limited scientific knowledge of aircraft emissions is an important issue worldwide, when considering air pollution associated with airport operation, and this is especially so for ultrafine particles. This limited knowledge is due to scientific complexities associated with measuring aircraft emissions during normal operations on the ground. In particular this type of research has required the development of novel sampling techniques which must take into account aircraft plume dispersion and dilution as well as the various particle dynamics that can affect the measurements of the aircraft engine plume from an operational aircraft. In order to address this scientific problem, a novel mobile emission measurement method called the Plume Capture and Analysis System (PCAS), was developed and tested. The PCAS permits the capture and analysis of aircraft exhaust during ground level operations including landing, taxiing, takeoff and idle. The PCAS uses a sampling bag to temporarily store a sample, providing sufficient time to utilize sensitive but slow instrumental techniques to be employed to measure gas and particle emissions simultaneously and to record detailed particle size distributions. The challenges in relation to the development of the technique include complexities associated with the assessment of the various particle loss and deposition mechanisms which are active during storage in the PCAS. Laboratory based assessment of the method showed that the bag sampling technique can be used to accurately measure particle emissions (e.g. particle number, mass and size distribution) from a moving aircraft or vehicle. Further assessment of the sensitivity of PCAS results to distance from the source and plume concentration was conducted in the airfield with taxiing aircraft. The results showed that the PCAS is a robust method capable of capturing the plume in only 10 seconds. The PCAS is able to account for aircraft plume dispersion and dilution at distances of 60 to 180 meters downwind of moving a aircraft along with particle deposition loss mechanisms during the measurements. Characterization of the plume in terms of particle number, mass (PM2.5), gaseous emissions and particle size distribution takes only 5 minutes allowing large numbers of tests to be completed in a short time. The results were broadly consistent and compared well with the available data. Comprehensive measurements and analyses of the aircraft plumes during various modes of the landing and takeoff (LTO) cycle (e.g. idle, taxi, landing and takeoff) were conducted at Brisbane Airport (BNE). Gaseous (NOx, CO2) emission factors, particle number and mass (PM2.5) emission factors and size distributions were determined for a range of Boeing and Airbus aircraft, as a function of aircraft type and engine thrust level. The scientific complexities including the analysis of the often multimodal particle size distributions to describe the contributions of different particle source processes during the various stages of aircraft operation were addressed through comprehensive data analysis and interpretation. The measurement results were used to develop an inventory of aircraft emissions at BNE, including all modes of the aircraft LTO cycle and ground running procedures (GRP). Measurements of the actual duration of aircraft activity in each mode of operation (time-in-mode) and compiling a comprehensive matrix of gas and particle emission rates as a function of aircraft type and engine thrust level for real world situations was crucial for developing the inventory. The significance of the resulting matrix of emission rates in this study lies in the estimate it provides of the annual particle emissions due to aircraft operations, especially in terms of particle number. In summary, this PhD thesis presents for the first time a comprehensive study of the particle and NOx emission factors and rates along with the particle size distributions from aircraft operations and provides a basis for estimating such emissions at other airports. This is a significant addition to the scientific knowledge in terms of particle emissions from aircraft operations, since the standard particle number emissions rates are not currently available for aircraft activities.

Comparison of methods for processing drinking water samples for the isolation of Myocbacterium avium and intracellulare

Several protocols for isolation of mycobacteria from water exist, but there is no established standard method. This study compared methods of processing potable water samples for the isolation of Mycobacterium avium and Mycobacterium intracellulare using spiked sterilized water and tap water decontaminated using 0.005% cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC). Samples were concentrated by centrifugation or filtration and inoculated onto Middlebrook 7H10 and 7H11 plates and Lowenstein-Jensen slants and into mycobacterial growth indicator tubes with or without polymyxin, azlocillin, nalidixic acid, trimethoprim, and amphotericin B. The solid media were incubated at 32°C, at 35°C, and at 35°C with CO2 and read weekly. The results suggest that filtration of water for the isolation of mycobacteria is a more sensitive method for concentration than centrifugation. The addition of sodium thiosulfate may not be necessary and may reduce the yield. Middlebrook M7H10 and 7H11 were equally sensitive culture media. CPC decontamination, while effective for reducing growth of contaminants, also significantly reduces mycobacterial numbers. There was no difference at 3 weeks between the different incubation temperatures.

Use of Probe Vehicles to Increase Traffic Estimation Accuracy in Brisbane

Traffic congestion is an increasing problem with high costs in financial, social and personal terms. These costs include psychological and physiological stress, aggressivity and fatigue caused by lengthy delays, and increased likelihood of road crashes. Reliable and accurate traffic information is essential for the development of traffic control and management strategies. Traffic information is mostly gathered from in-road vehicle detectors such as induction loops. Traffic Message Chanel (TMC) service is popular service which wirelessly send traffic information to drivers. Traffic probes have been used in many cities to increase traffic information accuracy. A simulation to estimate the number of probe vehicles required to increase the accuracy of traffic information in Brisbane is proposed. A meso level traffic simulator has been developed to facilitate the identification of the optimal number of probe vehicles required to achieve an acceptable level of traffic reporting accuracy. Our approach to determine the optimal number of probe vehicles required to meet quality of service requirements, is to simulate runs with varying numbers of traffic probes. The simulated traffic represents Brisbane’s typical morning traffic. The road maps used in simulation are Brisbane’s TMC maps complete with speed limits and traffic lights. Experimental results show that that the optimal number of probe vehicles required for providing a useful supplement to TMC (induction loop) data lies between 0.5% and 2.5% of vehicles on the road. With less probes than 0.25%, little additional information is provided, while for more probes than 5%, there is only a negligible affect on accuracy for increasingly many probes on the road. Our findings are consistent with on-going research work on traffic probes, and show the effectiveness of using probe vehicles to supplement induction loops for accurate and timely traffic information.