The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model

A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE) has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated.

In optics humidity compensation in NDIR exhaust gas measurements of NO2

NDIR is proposed for monitoring of air pollutants emitted by ship engines. Careful optical filtering overcomes the challenge of optical detection of NO2 in humid exhaust gas, despite spectroscopic overlap with the water vapour band.

Characterizing sampling bias in the trace gas climatologies of the SPARC Data Initiative

Monthly zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric measurements from satellite instruments can have biases due to the nonuniform sampling of the atmosphere by the instruments. We characterize potential sampling biases in stratospheric trace gas climatologies of the Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative using chemical fields from a chemistry climate model simulation and sampling patterns from 16 satellite-borne instruments. The exercise is performed for the long-lived stratospheric trace gases O3 and H2O. Monthly sampling biases for O3 exceed 10% for many instruments in the high-latitude stratosphere and in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, while annual mean sampling biases reach values of up to 20% in the same regions for some instruments. Sampling biases for H2O are generally smaller than for O3, although still notable in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and Southern Hemisphere high latitudes. The most important mechanism leading to monthly sampling bias is nonuniform temporal sampling, i.e., the fact that for many instruments, monthly means are produced from measurements which span less than the full month in question. Similarly, annual mean sampling biases are well explained by nonuniformity in the month-to-month sampling by different instruments. Nonuniform sampling in latitude and longitude are shown to also lead to nonnegligible sampling biases, which are most relevant for climatologies which are otherwise free of biases due to nonuniform temporal sampling.

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

State-resolved gas-surface reactivity of methane in the symmetric C-H stretch vibration on Ni(100)

The state-resolved reactivity of CH4 in its totally symmetric C-H stretch vibration (�1) has been measured on a Ni(100) surface. Methane molecules were accelerated to kinetic energies of 49 and 63:5 kJ=mol in a molecular beam and vibrationally excited to �1 by stimulated Raman pumping before surface impact at normal incidence. The reactivity of the symmetric-stretch excited CH4 is about an order of magnitude higher than that of methane excited to the antisymmetric stretch (�3) reported by Juurlink et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 868 (1999)] and is similar to that we have previously observed for the excitation of the first overtone (2�3). The difference between the state-resolved reactivity for �1 and �3 is consistent with predictions of a vibrationally adiabatic model of the methane reaction dynamics and indicates that statistical models cannot correctly describe the chemisorption of CH4 on nickel.

A combined vacuum crushing and sieving (CVCS) system designed to determine noble gas palaeo-temperatures from stalagmite samples

This paper presents a novel extraction device for water and noble gases from speleothem samples for noble gas paleotemperature determination. The “combined vacuum crushing and sieving (CVCS) system” was designed to reduce the atmospheric noble gas contents from air inclusions in speleothem samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude without adsorbing atmospheric noble gases onto the freshly produced grain surfaces, a process that had often hampered noble gas temperature (NGT) determination in the past. We also present the results from first performance tests of the CVCS system processing stalagmite samples grown at a known temperature. This temperature is reliably reproduced by the NGTs derived from Ar, Kr, and Xe extracted from the samples. The CVCS system is, therefore, suitable for routine determinations of accurate NGTs. In combination with stalagmite dating, these NGTs will allow reconstructing past regional temperature evolutions, and also support the interpretation of the often complex stable isotope records preserved in the stalagmites' calcite.

Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall

Sahelian summer rainfall, controlled by the West African monsoon, exhibited large-amplitude multidecadal variability during the twentieth century. Particularly important was the severe drought of the 1970s and 1980s, which had widespread impacts1–6. Research into the causes of this drought has identified anthropogenic aerosol forcing3,4,7 and changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs; refs 1,2,6,8–11) as the most important drivers. Since the 1980s, there has been some recovery of Sahel rainfall amounts2–6,11–14, although not to the pre-drought levels of the 1940s and 1950s. Here we report on experiments with the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art global climate model to identify the causes of this recovery. Our results suggest that the direct influence of higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was the main cause, with an additional role for changes in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions. We find that recent changes in SSTs, although substantial, did not have a significant impact on the recovery. The simulated response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas and aerosol forcing is consistent with a multivariate fingerprint of the observed recovery, raising confidence in our findings. Although robust predictions are not yet possible, our results suggest that the recent recovery in Sahel rainfall amounts is most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term.

Peak residential electricity demand and social practices: Deriving flexibility and greenhouse gas intensities from time use and locational data

Peak residential electricity demand takes place when people conduct simultaneous activities at specific times of the day. Social practices generate patterns of demand and can help understand why, where, with whom and when energy services are used at peak time. The aim of this work is to make use of recent UK time use and locational data to better understand: (i) how a set of component indices on synchronisation, variation, sharing and mobility indicate flexibility to shift demand; and (ii) the links between people’s activities and peaks in greenhouse gases’ intensities. The analysis is based on a recent UK time use dataset, providing 1 minute interval data from GPS devices and 10 minute data from diaries and questionnaires for 175 data days comprising 153 respondents. Findings show how greenhouse gases’ intensities and flexibility to shift activities vary throughout the day. Morning peaks are characterised by high levels of synchronisation, shared activities and occupancy, with low variation of activities. Evening peaks feature low synchronisation, and high spatial mobility variation of activities. From a network operator perspective, the results indicate that periods with lower flexibility may be prone to more significant local network loads due to the synchronization of electricity-demanding activities.

The effects of springtime mid-latitude storms on trace gas composition determined from the MACC reanalysis

The relationship between springtime air pollution transport of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) and mid-latitude cyclones is explored for the first time using the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis for the period 2003–2012. In this study, the most intense spring storms (95th percentile) are selected for two regions, the North Pacific (NP) and the North Atlantic (NA). These storms (∼60 storms over each region) often track over the major emission sources of East Asia and eastern North America. By compositing the storms, the distributions of O3 and CO within a "typical" intense storm are examined. We compare the storm-centered composite to background composites of "average conditions" created by sampling the reanalysis data of the previous year to the storm locations. Mid-latitude storms are found to redistribute concentrations of O3 and CO horizontally and vertically throughout the storm. This is clearly shown to occur through two main mechanisms: (1) vertical lifting of CO-rich and O3-poor air isentropically, from near the surface to the mid- to upper-troposphere in the region of the warm conveyor belt; and (2) descent of O3-rich and CO-poor air isentropically in the vicinity of the dry intrusion, from the stratosphere toward the mid-troposphere. This can be seen in the composite storm's life cycle as the storm intensifies, with area-averaged O3 (CO) increasing (decreasing) between 200 and 500 hPa. The influence of the storm dynamics compared to the background environment on the composition within an area around the storm center at the time of maximum intensity is as follows. Area-averaged O3 at 300 hPa is enhanced by 50 and 36% and by 11 and 7.6% at 500 hPa for the NP and NA regions, respectively. In contrast, area-averaged CO at 300 hPa decreases by 12% for NP and 5.5% for NA, and area-averaged CO at 500 hPa decreases by 2.4% for NP while there is little change over the NA region. From the mid-troposphere, O3-rich air is clearly seen to be transported toward the surface, but the downward transport of CO-poor air is not discernible due to the high levels of CO in the lower troposphere. Area-averaged O3 is slightly higher at 1000 hPa (3.5 and 1.8% for the NP and NA regions, respectively). There is an increase of CO at 1000 hPa for the NP region (3.3%) relative to the background composite and a~slight decrease in area-averaged CO for the NA region at 1000 hPa (-2.7%).

The development of soil organic matter in restored biodiverse Jarrah forests of South-Western Australia as determined by ASE and GCMS

Background, aim and scope Soil organic matter (SOM) is known to increase with time as landscapes recover after a major disturbance; however, little is known about the evolution of the chemistry of SOM in reconstructed ecosystems. In this study, we assessed the development of SOM chemistry in a chronosequence (space for time substitution) of restored Jarrah forest sites in Western Australia. Materials and methods Replicated samples were taken at the surface of the mineral soil as well as deeper in the profile at sites of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 years of age. A molecular approach was developed to distinguish and quantify numerous individual compounds in SOM. This used accelerated solvent extraction in conjunction with gas chromatography mass spectrometry. A novel multivariate statistical approach was used to assess changes in accelerated solvent extraction (ASE)-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GCMS) spectra. This enabled us to track SOM developmental trajectories with restoration time. Results Results showed total carbon concentrations approached that of native forests soils by 17 years of restoration. Using the relate protocol in PRIMER, we demonstrated an overall linear relationship with site age at both depths, indicating that changes in SOM chemistry were occurring. Conclusions The surface soils were seen to approach native molecular compositions while the deeper soil retained a more stable chemical signature, suggesting litter from the developing diverse plant community has altered SOM near the surface. Our new approach for assessing SOM development, combining ASE-GCMS with illuminating multivariate statistical analysis, holds great promise to more fully develop ASE for the characterisation of SOM.

A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector of major Canadian cities

One of the most significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Canada is the buildings sector, with over 30% of national energy end-use occurring in buildings. Energy use must be addressed to reduce emissions from the buildings sector, as nearly 70% of all Canada’s energy used in the residential sector comes from fossil sources. An analysis of GHG emissions from the existing residential building stock for the year 2010 has been conducted for six Canadian cities with different climates and development histories: Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, and Halifax. Variation across these cities is seen in their 2010 GHG emissions, due to climate, characteristics of the building stock, and energy conversion technologies, with Halifax having the highest per capita emissions at 5.55 tCO2e/capita and Montreal having the lowest at 0.32 tCO2e/capita. The importance of the provincial electricity grid’s carbon intensity is emphasized, along with era of construction, occupancy, floor area, and climate. Approaches to achieving deep emissions reductions include innovative retrofit financing and city level residential energy conservation by-laws; each region should seek location-appropriate measures to reduce energy demand within its residential housing stock, as well as associated GHG emissions.