A comprehensive portfolio construction under stochastic environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. ^ A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: (a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, (b) implement large-scale optimizations, and (c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. ^ The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. ^ The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH). ^

A study of stock market linkages between the US and frontier countries

My dissertation investigates the financial linkages and transmission of economic shocks between the US and the smallest emerging markets (frontier markets). The first chapter sets up an empirical model that examines the impact of US market returns and conditional volatility on the returns and conditional volatilities of twenty-one frontier markets. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood; utilizes the GARCH model of errors, and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. We find limited, but statistically significant exposure of Frontier markets to shocks from the US. Our results suggest that it is not the lagged US market returns that have impact; rather it is the expected US market returns that influence frontier market returns The second chapter sets up an empirical time-varying parameter (TVP) model to explore the time-variation in the impact of mean US returns on mean Frontier market returns. The model utilizes the Kalman filter algorithm as well as the GARCH model of errors and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. The TVP model detects statistically significant time-variation in the impact of US returns and low, but statistically and quantitatively important impact of US market conditional volatility. The third chapter studies the risk-return relationship in twenty Frontier country stock markets by setting up an international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The systematic risk in this model comes from covariance of Frontier market stock index returns with world returns. Both the systematic risk and risk premium are time-varying in our model. We also incorporate own country variances as additional determinants of Frontier country returns. Our results suggest statistically significant impact of both world and own country risk in explaining Frontier country returns. Time-variation in the world risk premium is also found to be statistically significant for most Frontier market returns. However, own country risk is found to be quantitatively more important.

Essays on emissions trading markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Essays on Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption.

Variação entre os pronomes tu e você na função de sujeito na fala de Natal (RN): uma abordagem sociofuncionalista

In this dissertation, under the light of a sociofunctionalist approach (TAVARES, 2003; 2013; GORSKI; TAVARES, 2013), I analyze 378 data of pronouns tu and você extracted from 12 conversations belonging to Natal Conversational Data Base (CUNHA, 2010). I have the following objectives: (i) mapping linguistic and extralinguistic specialization trends of second person singular subject pronouns tu and você in the speech of Natal (RN); (ii) assessing the role of the principle of persistence (HOPPER, 1991) as a possible motivating factor of specialization trends of pronouns tu and você; (iii) identify in which of the six pronouns subsystems proposed by Scherre et al. (2009) is situated the speech community of Natal portrayed in this study. In order to achieve the proposed objectives, I submitted the data to multivariate statistical analysis, which have provided frequencies and relative weights.I obtained, as relevant factor groups, according to the statistical analysis, the nature of the relationship between the interlocutors (if the relationship is asymmetric, less intimate, and more formal, the use of você is favored; if the relationship is symmetrical, intimate and informal, the use of tu is favored); the degree of formality of the environment in which the conversation takes place (in more informal environments tu was favored; in more formal environments você were favored); and the type of discourse (reported / not reported) (tu was favored in not reported discourse and você was favored in reported discourse). Based on results regarding to these factors groups, I organized a panorama of specializations of pronouns tu and você, noting that tu seems specialized for more informal contexts of use than those for which você seems specialized. The motivation underlying these trends of specialization may be the principle of persistence, since along its historical development, você carries a trace of greater formality or, at least, less intimacy, when contrasted to tu. Finally, I concluded that, of the six pronoun subsystems proposed by Scherre et al. (2009), the speech community of Natal can be framed in the fifth, characterized by variable use of subject pronouns tu and você, with more frequent use of você than tu, and rare occurrence of agreement of tu with second-person singular verb.

Prevalência e fatores associados à alteração vocal em idosos institucionalizados com capacidade cognitiva preservada

Voice disorders (VD) in the elderly can interfere negatively in communication, emotional well-being and quality of life, conditions that correspond to greater exposure to illness and social isolation bringing consequent economic impact for the health system. It is assumed that institutionalized confinement, weakness and morbidity associated to nursing home (NH) contribute to transform VD an especially prevalent condition in institutionalized elderly, including those without cognitive impairment. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and associated factors of VD in NH elderly residents without cognitive impairment. There is no epidemiological diagnostic instruments of VD for elderly populations, so the first step of this study was dedicated to prepare and analyze the psychometric properties of a short, inexpensive and easy to use questionnaire named Screening for Voice Disorders in Older Adults (Rastreamento de Alterações Vocais em Idosos—RAVI). The methodological procedures of this step followed the guidelines of the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing and contemplated validity evidence based on test content, based on response processes, based on internal structure and based on relations with other variables, as well as reliability analysis and clinical consistency. The result of the validation process showed that the RAVI final score generate valid and reliable interpretations for the epidemiological diagnosis of VD in the elderly, which endorsed the use of the questionnaire in the second stage of the study, performed in ten NH located in the city of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. At this stage, data from socioeconomic and demographic variables, lifestyle, general health conditions and characterization of the institution were collected. It was performed a bivariate analysis and it was calculated the prevalence ratio as a magnitude association measure, with a confidence interval of 95%. The variables with p-value less than 0.20 were included in the multiple logistic regression model that followed the Forward selection method. The odds ratio found in the multivariate model was converted into prevalence ratio and the level of significance was 5%. The sample consisted of 117 subjects with predominance of females and average of 79.68 (± 7.92) years old. The prevalence of VD was 39.3% (95% CI: 30.4-48.1%). The multivariate model showed statistically significant association between VD and depressive symptoms, smoking for a year or more and selfreported hearing loss. In conclusion, VD is a prevalent health condition in NH elderly residents without cognitive impairment and is associated with factors involving psychosocial, lifestyle and communicative disability that require attention of managers and professionals involved with NH environment. Strategies to encourage communication and social integration, actions to combat smoking and minimizing the effects of hearing loss could stimulate the physical well-being, emotional and mental health of institutionalized elderly population, contributing to the vocal and communicative maintenance, a more effective social inclusion and better overall health condition.

A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

Bayesian estimation in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models

Esta tesis doctoral nace con el propósito de entender, analizar y sobre todo modelizar el comportamiento estadístico de las series financieras. En este sentido, se puede afirmar que los modelos que mejor recogen las especiales características de estas series son los modelos de heterocedasticidad condicionada en tiempo discreto,si los intervalos de tiempo en los que se recogen los datos lo permiten, y en tiempo continuo si tenemos datos diarios o datos intradía. Con esta finalidad, en esta tesis se proponen distintos estimadores bayesianos para la estimación de los parámetros de los modelos GARCH en tiempo discreto (Bollerslev (1986)) y COGARCH en tiempo continuo (Kluppelberg et al. (2004)). En el capítulo 1 se introducen las características de las series financieras y se presentan los modelos ARCH, GARCH y COGARCH, así como sus principales propiedades. Mandelbrot (1963) destacó que las series financieras no presentan estacionariedad y que sus incrementos no presentan autocorrelación, aunque sus cuadrados sí están correlacionados. Señaló también que la volatilidad que presentan no es constante y que aparecen clusters de volatilidad. Observó la falta de normalidad de las series financieras, debida principalmente a su comportamiento leptocúrtico, y también destacó los efectos estacionales que presentan las series, analizando como se ven afectadas por la época del año o el día de la semana. Posteriormente Black (1976) completó la lista de características especiales incluyendo los denominados leverage effects relacionados con como las fluctuaciones positivas y negativas de los precios de los activos afectan a la volatilidad de las series de forma distinta.

A Comprehensive Portfolio Construction Under Stochastic Environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, b) implement large-scale optimizations, and c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH).

El profesor de educación física en la gestion universitaria : El caso de la UNRC

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo, describir las características de los líderes profesores de EF en dos ambientes universitarios. Se realizó una encuesta sobre una muestra de cuarenta docentes pertenecientes a dos áreas deportivas de la UNRC. El tipo de liderazgo percibido por los docentes fue evaluado con un instrumento adaptado de los modelos CELID-S, CONLID-S y CAMIN-S. El tipo de cultura se determinó evaluando cualitativamente notas de campo con entrevistas a directivos de las áreas estudiadas, siendo las culturas dominantes: Comunal y Red-Fragmentada respectivamente. Para caracterizar el liderazgo en cada grupo se realizó un análisis estadístico multivariado exploratorio por el método de Componentes Principales. Los resultados del trabajo de campo permiten concluir que los líderes de ambos grupos tienen características comunes: el carisma, la participación, el clima y la orientación a los cambio y características diferenciales: en la cultura comunal el factor más contributivo es el estilo directivo que fija metas claras y exigentes en procura del máximo rendimiento, luego mucho menos explica la orientación humanística; mientras que en la cultura en Red- Fragmentada el factor que más contribuye es el factor humano y las relaciones interpersonales resultando mucho menos contributivos la orientación a las tareas, objetivos y metas exigentes

El profesor de educación física en la gestion universitaria : El caso de la UNRC

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo, describir las características de los líderes profesores de EF en dos ambientes universitarios. Se realizó una encuesta sobre una muestra de cuarenta docentes pertenecientes a dos áreas deportivas de la UNRC. El tipo de liderazgo percibido por los docentes fue evaluado con un instrumento adaptado de los modelos CELID-S, CONLID-S y CAMIN-S. El tipo de cultura se determinó evaluando cualitativamente notas de campo con entrevistas a directivos de las áreas estudiadas, siendo las culturas dominantes: Comunal y Red-Fragmentada respectivamente. Para caracterizar el liderazgo en cada grupo se realizó un análisis estadístico multivariado exploratorio por el método de Componentes Principales. Los resultados del trabajo de campo permiten concluir que los líderes de ambos grupos tienen características comunes: el carisma, la participación, el clima y la orientación a los cambio y características diferenciales: en la cultura comunal el factor más contributivo es el estilo directivo que fija metas claras y exigentes en procura del máximo rendimiento, luego mucho menos explica la orientación humanística; mientras que en la cultura en Red- Fragmentada el factor que más contribuye es el factor humano y las relaciones interpersonales resultando mucho menos contributivos la orientación a las tareas, objetivos y metas exigentes

El profesor de educación física en la gestion universitaria : El caso de la UNRC

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo, describir las características de los líderes profesores de EF en dos ambientes universitarios. Se realizó una encuesta sobre una muestra de cuarenta docentes pertenecientes a dos áreas deportivas de la UNRC. El tipo de liderazgo percibido por los docentes fue evaluado con un instrumento adaptado de los modelos CELID-S, CONLID-S y CAMIN-S. El tipo de cultura se determinó evaluando cualitativamente notas de campo con entrevistas a directivos de las áreas estudiadas, siendo las culturas dominantes: Comunal y Red-Fragmentada respectivamente. Para caracterizar el liderazgo en cada grupo se realizó un análisis estadístico multivariado exploratorio por el método de Componentes Principales. Los resultados del trabajo de campo permiten concluir que los líderes de ambos grupos tienen características comunes: el carisma, la participación, el clima y la orientación a los cambio y características diferenciales: en la cultura comunal el factor más contributivo es el estilo directivo que fija metas claras y exigentes en procura del máximo rendimiento, luego mucho menos explica la orientación humanística; mientras que en la cultura en Red- Fragmentada el factor que más contribuye es el factor humano y las relaciones interpersonales resultando mucho menos contributivos la orientación a las tareas, objetivos y metas exigentes

Análise comparativa e teste empírico da validade dos modelos CAPM tradicional e condicional: o caso das ações da Petrobrás

ALVES, Janaína da Silva. Análise comparativa e teste empírico da validade dos modelos CAPM tradicional e condicional: o caso das ações da Petrobrás. Revista Ciências Administrativas, Fotaleza, v. 13, n. 1, p.147-157, ago. 2007.

Risque de prix et décisions de production et d'exportation : le cas de l'agriculture au Québec

Cette thèse porte sur l’effet du risque de prix sur la décision des agriculteurs et les transformateurs québécois. Elle se divise en trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre revient sur la littérature. Le deuxième chapitre examine l’effet du risque de prix sur la production de trois produits, à savoir le maïs grain, la viande de porc et la viande d’agneau dans la province Québec. Le dernier chapitre est centré sur l’analyse de changement des préférences du transformateur québécois de porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Le premier chapitre vise à montrer l’importance de l’effet du risque du prix sur la quantité produite par les agriculteurs, tel que mis en évidence par la littérature. En effet, la littérature révèle l’importance du risque de prix à l’exportation sur le commerce international. Le deuxième chapitre est consacré à l’étude des facteurs du risque (les anticipations des prix et la volatilité des prix) dans la fonction de l’offre. Un modèle d’hétéroscédasticité conditionnelle autorégressive généralisée (GARCH) est utilisé afin de modéliser ces facteurs du risque. Les paramètres du modèle sont estimés par la méthode de l’Information Complète Maximum Vraisemblance (FIML). Les résultats empiriques montrent l’effet négatif de la volatilité du prix sur la production alors que la prévisibilité des prix a un effet positif sur la quantité produite. Comme attendu, nous constatons que l’application du programme d’assurance-stabilisation des revenus agricoles (ASRA) au Québec induit une plus importante sensibilité de l’offre par rapport au prix effectif (le prix incluant la compensation de l’ASRA) que par rapport au prix du marché. Par ailleurs, l’offre est moins sensible au prix des intrants qu’au prix de l’output. La diminution de l’aversion au risque de producteur est une autre conséquence de l’application de ce programme. En outre, l’estimation de la prime marginale relative au risque révèle que le producteur du maïs est le producteur le moins averse au risque (comparativement à celui de porc ou d’agneau). Le troisième chapitre consiste en l’analyse du changement de préférence du transformateur québécois du porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Nous supposons que le transformateur a la possibilité de fournir les produits sur deux marchés : étranger et local. Le modèle théorique explique l’offre relative comme étant une fonction à la fois d’anticipation relative et de volatilité relative des prix. Ainsi, ce modèle révèle que la sensibilité de l’offre relative par rapport à la volatilité relative de prix dépend de deux facteurs : d’une part, la part de l’exportation dans la production totale et d’autre part, l’élasticité de substitution entre les deux marchés. Un modèle à correction d’erreurs est utilisé lors d’estimation des paramètres du modèle. Les résultats montrent l’effet positif et significatif de l’anticipation relative du prix sur l’offre relative à court terme. Ces résultats montrent donc qu’une hausse de la volatilité du prix sur le marché étranger par rapport à celle sur le marché local entraine une baisse de l’offre relative sur le marché étranger à long terme. De plus, selon les résultats, les marchés étranger et local sont plus substituables à long terme qu’à court terme.

Innovación organizacional en la producción de cacao orgánico en Perú : estudio de caso de la cooperativa agraria Oro Verde

Frente a un escenario global turbulento en cuanto a los sistemas agroalimentarios, con fuertes cambios respecto a una demanda creciente y exigente de productos diferenciados, existen oportunidades comerciales para pequeños productores organizados en cooperativas o asociaciones, los cuales desarrollan subsistemas estrictamente coordinados. Perú se ha consolidado como un importante productor de cacao orgánico en el mundo, abasteciendo el 33 por ciento de la producción mundial. Sus exportaciones vienen creciendo con una tasa de 19 por ciento anual y en él coexisten muchas cooperativas y asociaciones dedicadas a este negocio. Oro Verde es una cooperativa desarrollada en la región San Martín y a pesar de su poca participación en el mercado viene creciendo a una tasa de 48 por ciento anual en sus exportaciones. Teniendo en cuenta que todas las organizaciones operan bajo el mismo ambiente institucional formal, surge la necesidad de estudiar en qué medida la innovación organizacional facilita mejoras tecnológicas y de aspectos comerciales a partir de la cooperativa agraria Oro Verde. Para atender a la pregunta de investigación se utilizó como metodología un estudio de caso simple incrustado y como tipo de investigación la epistemología fenomenológica, combinando herramientas cualitativas y cuantitativas (entrevistas a funcionarios y encuestas a productores). Se encuestaron 102 socios (25 por ciento) de la cooperativa. Los resultados se procesaron a partir del software InfoStat mediante el análisis multivariado: Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP) combinado con clúster. Del análisis de las variables del ambiente organizacional surge que la transacción entre el productor socio y Oro Verde está alineada, existe dependencia bilateral y bajos costos de transacción. Los productores presentaron satisfacción en el desempeño organizacional y conformidad en el precio y plazo de pago. En el ambiente tecnológico los productores reconocieron mejoras en la tecnología implementada por la cooperativa, que les permitió posicionarse por encima de la media tecnológica del subsistema de cacao orgánico de Perú. En aspectos comerciales, se caracterizó por dos estrategias: la diferenciación y la segmentación. Se encontró alta conformidad en torno a las decisiones comerciales adoptadas por la cooperativa. Del ACP se obtuvo dos autovalores (CP1: Innovación Tecnológica y CP2: Servicio de transporte y logística) que explican el 68 por ciento de la variabilidad total. La característica más diferenciada de los grupos formados fue la lejanía a su centro de acopio. Los indicadores de conformidad de precio y plazo de pago guardan correlación positiva con el desempeño general de la cooperativa. Se concluye que la innovación organizacional de la cooperativa agraria Oro Verde, facilitó la evolución tecnológica y mejora de aspectos comerciales de los pequeños productores de cacao orgánico, teniendo bajos costos de transacción derivados del nivel de coordinación alcanzado y reflejado en la satisfacción de sus socios.