Bayesian estimation of regression parameters in elliptical measurement error models

The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN`s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.

Structural parameters of polyacrylamide hydrogels obtained by the Equilibrium Swelling Theory

In this paper, the synthesis and structural characterization of a series of polyacrylamide hydrogels with different degrees of reticulation are reported. Although the Equilibrium Swelling Theory was recognized as a simple and reliable tool for the determination of structural hydrogels network parameters like equilibrium degree of swelling, cross-link ratio and mesh size, this is the first application of this methodology for polyacrylamide hydrogels. By changing the total monomer content in the synthesis solution (%T) from 5 to 30%, at a fixed value of cross-linker content in the total monomer amount (%C) of 5%, the final parameter obtained, the mesh size, can be tuned from 2 to 0.3 nm. It was also possible to change the mesh size (0.19-0.35) by varying %C from 5 to 12% (at %T = 20%). Scanning Electron Microscopy images for the most different formulations are shown and corroborate data obtained from the theory. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metal transport parameters of a gneiss saprolitic silty soil for liner design

Diffusion coefficients and retardation factors of two metal cations (Cd2+ and Pb2+) were measured for a compacted Brazilian saprolitic soil derived from gneiss, aiming to assess its geoenvironmental performance as a liner for waste disposal sites. This soil occurs extensively all over the country in very thick layers, but has not been used in liners because of its hydraulic conductivity, higher than 10(-9) m/s when compacted at optimum water content of standard Proctor energy, but which can be reduced by means of appropriate compaction techniques or additives. Batch, column, and diffusion tests were carried out with monospecies synthetic solutions at pH 1, 3, and 5.5. Measured diffusion coefficients varied between 0.5 and 4 X 10(-10) m(2)/s. Retardation factors show that cadmium, a very mobile cation, is not adsorbed at pH I but is significantly retained at pH 3 and pH 5.5, whereas lead is retained at all tested pH values though slightly at pH 1. Estimated retardation factors from batch tests were 1.3-2.3 times those resulting from column tests and at its highest when obtained by diffusion tests; whereas batch tests allow a more complete exposure of the soil grains to the solution, time-dependent nonspecific adsorption may take longer to occur. The importance of contact time was observed and should be considered in further investigations. Its significant retention of metals suggests a promising utilization of this soil as a bottom liner for wastes landfills.

Reduction of Models in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters

In many statistical inference problems, there is interest in estimation of only some elements of the parameter vector that defines the adopted model. In general, such elements are associated to measures of location and the additional terms, known as nuisance parameters, to control the dispersion and asymmetry of the underlying distributions. To estimate all the parameters of the model and to draw inferences only on the parameters of interest. Depending on the adopted model, this procedure can be both algebraically is common and computationally very costly and thus it is convenient to reduce it, so that it depends only on the parameters of interest. This article reviews estimation methods in the presence of nuisance parameters and consider some applications in models recently discussed in the literature.

Stabilizing Nonstationary Electrochemical Time Series

Electrochemical systems are ideal working-horses for studying oscillatory dynamics. Experimentally obtained time series, however, are usually associated with a spontaneous drift in some uncontrollable parameter that triggers transitions among different oscillatory patterns, despite the fact that all controllable parameters are kept constant. Herein we present an empirical method to stabilize experimental potential time series. The method consists of applying a negative galvanodynamic sweep to compensate the spontaneous drift and was tested for the oscillatory electro-oxidation of methanol on platinum. For a wide range of applied currents, the base system presents spontaneous transitions from quasi-harmonic to mixed mode oscillations. Temporal patterns were stabilized by galvanodynamic sweeps at different rates. The procedure resulted in a considerable increase in the number of oscillatory cycles from 5 to 20 times, depending on the specific temporal pattern. The spontaneous drift has been associated with uncompensated oscillations, in which the coverage of some adsorbed species are not reestablished after one cycle; i.e., there is a net accumulation and/or depletion of adsorbed species during oscillations. We interpreted the rate of the galvanodynamic sweep in terms of the time scales of the poisoning processes that underlies the uncompensated oscillations and thus the spontaneous slow drift.

Paper dimensional stability in sheet-fed offset printing : Papperets dimensionsstabilitet i en arkoffsetpress

In offset printing, dampening solution is used to create a good balance in the process. If too much water is transferred to the paper, the sheet can change its size between the printing units, due to water absorption, and cause a problem with the colour register. This phenomenon is usually referred to as fanout. In this degree project, an investigation was made to see if the paper dimensions changed through its way in the sheet-fed printing process. The instrument Luchs Register Measuring Systems (Lynx) was used, and a method for measuring if the paper changed its dimensions with this instrument, was developed. Paper qualities with three different grammages were used, 90, 130 and 250 gsm. This investigation showed that all paper qualities changed their size with widening in the gripper edge in the range of 10 - 70 µm and in the trailing edge the increase was 10 - 130 µm. The elongations of the papers were in the range of 10- 300 µm. The papers with lowest grammage changed more than the heavier. To see if the print had been affected of the widening and elongation, print quality parameters like relative contrast, dot gain and mottle were correlated with the Lynx data from the sheets. The group of papers that gave correlations were in 130 gsm. The sheets had visual doubling and the combined standard deviation from the Lynx marks K3, K5 and K21 correlated with dot gain. When the variations increased so did the dot gain and this indicates that the doubling was due to the widening. There was also a correlation between the standard deviation from K3 and Mottle. The sheets widened with an average of 30 µm in the gripper edge and since there probably were doubling due to widening it also affected the Mottle values. What the widening depends on is hard to tell. Since widening was so small, it could be due to water absorption, papers being ironed out or maybe the sheets have been flattened out. It probably needs a more detailed investigation to find out what causes the widening. Further investigations about how print quality is affected by the register accuracy of a printing machine should include a print form with measuring areas close to the Lynx marks. The measuring areas should contain fine hairlines, negative text printed with at least two colours and some pictures to evaluate together with standard measuring should give a good knowledge about the subject.

Mode, senmodernitet, identitet

Fashion, late modernity and identity A common discussion in the late modern era is the role that tradition plays concerning individual identity. This forms a background to our article that focuses on consumer culture and one of its characteristics – fashion. To what extent does consumer culture and fashion contribute to the undermining of traditions, and how does this affect individual identity? We discuss two interpretations of consumption in shaping individual identity: the first interpretation maintains that by consumption individuals obtain an increasing freedom of choicemaking them free from the power of tradition, and thereby responsible for their lifestyle choices. According to the second interpretation, the free choice is illusory. This choiceis strongly influenced by factors such as social class and producers’ manipulative skills. Contrasting classical social theorists with contemporary fashion theory we argue that late modern fashion is characterized by quick changes and pluralism that often stand in contrast to tradition. We further discuss the increased importance of taste and new diffusion patterns as signs of a more individualized fashion, and discuss neo-tribalism as a post-traditional kind of community.

Charterturisme som en produkt : en sociologisk analyse af agens i oplevelsesøkonomien

Charter tourism as a product: a sociological analysis of agency in the experience economy In recent years charter tourism as a convenient and cost-effective mode of travelling has been declining. This may be related to dominating societal ideals promoting self-actualization, individual exploration and spontaneity. However, not much is known about the development of ideals and practices among charter tourists. By use of ethnographic fieldwork methodology, including pre-departure and post-travel telephone interviews, this exploratory study investigated a group of Danish charter tourists travelling to Gran Canaria. Results show that the charter tourists were active in navigating between a series of central dilemmas posed by the consumption of a mass product in an individualized societal context, thereby shaping their experiences to form a desirable tourist product.

Upplysning och gränsdragning : en filosofisociologisk studie av den första generationen analytiska filosofer i Sverige

Enlightenment and boundary work: a study of the first-generation Swedish analytical philosophers from a sociology-of-philosophy perspective The history of Swedish analytical philosophy begins with the writings of Ingemar Hedenius, Anders Wedberg, and Konrad Marc-Wogau, who introduced the country to a new style of thinking that was to become the dominant mode of academic philosophizing in it from the mid-1940s to the late 1960s. The article presents a sociological analysis of how that hegemonic position was claimed and established for it in Swedish philosophy departments. In particular, the critique that Hedenius, Wedberg, and Marc-Wogau levelled in their popular writings against continental philosophy is looked upon in detail. Drawing upon Thomas Gieryn’s theory of boundary work, it is shown how the three strove for epistemic authority by demarcating their own ‘scientific’ enterprise from the ‘unscientific’ philosophy of their competitors. This quest for authority, however, was pursued not solely for its own sake: Hedenius, Wedberg, and Marc-Wogau were also all firmly committed to the ideals of enlightenment and cultural radicalism shaping the Swedish society of their time.

The fall descriptions and health characteristics of older adults with hip fracture : a mixed methods study

Background: In light of the multifactorial etiology of fall-related hip fracture, knowledge of fall circumstances may be especially valuable when placed in the context of the health of the person who falls. We aimed to investigate the circumstances surrounding fall-related hip fractures and to describe fall circumstances in relation to participants' health and functional characteristics. Methods: The fall circumstances of 125 individuals (age >= 50 years) with hip fracture were investigated using semi-structured interviews. Data concerning participants' health (comorbidities and medications) and function (self-reported performance of mobility, balance, personal activities of daily living and physical activity, previous falls and hand grip strength) were collected via medical records, questionnaires and dynamometry. Using a mixed methods design, both data sets were analysed separately and then merged in order to provide a comprehensive description of fall events and identify eventual patterns in the data. Results: Fall circumstances were described as i) Activity at the time of the fall: Positional change (n = 24, 19%); Standing (n = 16, 13%); Walking (n = 71, 57%); Balance challenging (n = 14, 11%) and ii) Nature of the fall: Environmental (n = 32, 26%); Physiological (n = 35, 28%); Activity-related indoor (n = 8, 6%) and outdoor (n = 8, 6%); Trips and slips on snow (n = 20, 16%) and in snow-free conditions (n = 12, 10%) and Unknown (n = 10, 8%). We observed the following patterns regarding fall circumstances and participants' health: those who fell i) during positional change had the poorest functional status; ii) due to environmental reasons (indoors) had moderate physical function, but high levels of comorbidity and fall risk increasing medications; iii) in snow-free environments (outdoors) appeared to have a poorer health and functional status than other outdoor groups. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that patterns exist in relation to the falls circumstances and health characteristics of people with hip fracture which build upon that previously reported. These patterns, when verified, can provide useful information as to the ways in which fall prevention strategies can be tailored to individuals of varying levels of health and function who are at risk for falls and hip fracture.

Bounds on policy relevant parameters with discrete policy variation

When estimating policy parameters, also known as treatment effects, the assignment to treatment mechanism almost always causes endogeneity and thus bias many of these policy parameters estimates. Additionally, heterogeneity in program impacts is more likely to be the norm than the exception for most social programs. In situations where these issues are present, the Marginal Treatment Effect (MTE) parameter estimation makes use of an instrument to avoid assignment bias and simultaneously to account for heterogeneous effects throughout individuals. Although this parameter is point identified in the literature, the assumptions required for identification may be strong. Given that, we use weaker assumptions in order to partially identify the MTE, i.e. to stablish a methodology for MTE bounds estimation, implementing it computationally and showing results from Monte Carlo simulations. The partial identification we perfom requires the MTE to be a monotone function over the propensity score, which is a reasonable assumption on several economics' examples, and the simulation results shows it is possible to get informative even in restricted cases where point identification is lost. Additionally, in situations where estimated bounds are not informative and the traditional point identification is lost, we suggest a more generic method to point estimate MTE using the Moore-Penrose Pseudo-Invese Matrix, achieving better results than traditional methods.

Síntese, estudo cinético e análise microestrutural do sistema cério-níquel obtido pelo método pechini

The cerium oxide has a high potential for use in removing pollutants after combustion, removal of organic matter in waste water and the fuel-cell technology. The nickel oxide is an attractive material due to its excellent chemical stability and their optical properties, electrical and magnetic. In this work, CeO2-NiO- systems on molars reasons 1:1(I), 1:2(II) e 1:3(III) metal-citric acid were synthesized using the Pechini method. We used techniques of TG / DTG and ATD to monitor the degradation process of organic matter to the formation of the oxide. By thermogravimetric analysis and applying the dynamic method proposed by Coats-Redfern, it was possible to study the reactions of thermal decomposition in order to propose the possible mechanism by which the reaction takes place, as well as the determination of kinetic parameters as activation energy, Ea, pre-exponential factor and parameters of activation. It was observed that both variables exert a significant influence on the formation of complex polymeric precursor. The model that best fitted the experimental data in the dynamic mode was R3, which consists of nuclear growth, which formed the nuclei grow to a continuous reaction interface, it proposes a spherical symmetry (order 2 / 3). The values of enthalpy of activation of the system showed that the reaction in the state of transition is exothermic. The variables of composition, together with the variable temperature of calcination were studied by different techniques such as XRD, IV and SEM. Also a study was conducted microstructure by the Rietveld method, the calculation routine was developed to run the package program FullProf Suite, and analyzed by pseudo-Voigt function. It was found that the molar ratio of variable metal-citric acid in the system CeO2-NiO (I), (II), (III) has strong influence on the microstructural properties, size of crystallites and microstrain network, and can be used to control these properties

The role of indomethacin and tezosentan on renal effects induced by Bothrops moojeni Lys49 myotoxin I

Renal changes determined by Lys49 myotoxin I (BmTx I), isolated from Bothrops moojeni are well known. The scope of the present study was to investigate the possible mechanisms involved in the production of these effects by using indomethacin (10 mu g/mL), a non-selective inhibitor of cyclooxygenase, and tezosentan (10 mu g/mL), an endothelin antagonist. By means of the method of mesenteric vascular bed, it has been observed that B. moojeni myotoxin (5 mu g/mL) affects neither basal perfusion pressure nor phenylephrine-preconstricted vessels. This fact suggests that the increase in renal perfusion pressure and in renal vascular resistance did not occur by a direct effect on renal vasculature. Isolated kidneys from Wistar rats, weighing 240-280 g, were perfused with Krebs-Henseleit solution. The infusion of BmTx-I increased perfusion pressure, renal vascular resistance, urinary flow and glomerular filtration rate. Sodium, potassium and chloride tubular transport was reduced after addition of BmTx-I. Indomethacin blocked the effects induced by BmTx-I on perfusion pressure and renal vascular resistance, however, it did not revert the effect on urinary flow and sodium, potassium and chloride tubular transport. The alterations of glomerular filtration rate were inhibited only at 90 min of perfusion. The partial blockade exerted by indomethacin treatment showed that prostaglandins could have been important mediators of BmTx-I renal effects, but the participation of other substances cannot be excluded.The blockage of all renal alterations observed after tezosentan treatment support the hypothesis that endothelin is the major substance involved in the renal pathophysiologic alterations promoted by the Lys49 PLA(2) myotoxin I, isolated from B. moojeni. In conclusion, the rather intense renal effects promoted by B. moojeni myotoxin-I were probably caused by the release of renal endothelin, interfering with the renal parameters studied. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Faixas de suficiência para a cultura do algodão no centro-oeste do Brasil: I. macronutrientes

The cotton growth occupies about 1.1 million hectares in Brazil and the midwest, especially the state of Mato Grosso, is the largest producer in the country. This work aimed to establish the sufficiency ranges for macronutrients in cotton crops by the method of mathematical chance. The work was carried out from 2000 to 2003 in the cities of Costa Rica (MS), Diamantino and Sapezal (MT), totaling 152 samples of plant tissue and yield. The chance mathematics method was adequate for to establish cotton macronutrients references values, can be to help parameters were the conventional research cannot to prove in the small time space. The use of different yields for the calculation of mathematical chance (4,000 and 4,500kg ha(-1)) in the population studied, no difference between the sufficiency ranges for macronutrients. The macronutrients sufficiency range was, in the mg kg(-1), 33-45; 3.8-5.3; 15-21; 20-36; 4.0-7.2 e 2.8-8.6 for N, P, K, Ca, Mg e S, respectly. The indicated range, however to similar with the recommendations published, they demonstrate improvement about to obtainment of increases productivities.