Essays on Spatial Econometrics

Esta dissertação concentra-se nos processos estocásticos espaciais definidos em um reticulado, os chamados modelos do tipo Cliff & Ord. Minha contribuição nesta tese consiste em utilizar aproximações de Edgeworth e saddlepoint para investigar as propriedades em amostras finitas do teste para detectar a presença de dependência espacial em modelos SAR (autoregressivo espacial), e propor uma nova classe de modelos econométricos espaciais na qual os parâmetros que afetam a estrutura da média são distintos dos parâmetros presentes na estrutura da variância do processo. Isto permite uma interpretação mais clara dos parâmetros do modelo, além de generalizar uma proposta de taxonomia feita por Anselin (2003). Eu proponho um estimador para os parâmetros do modelo e derivo a distribuição assintótica do estimador. O modelo sugerido na dissertação fornece uma interpretação interessante ao modelo SARAR, bastante comum na literatura. A investigação das propriedades em amostras finitas dos testes expande com relação a literatura permitindo que a matriz de vizinhança do processo espacial seja uma função não-linear do parâmetro de dependência espacial. A utilização de aproximações ao invés de simulações (mais comum na literatura), permite uma maneira fácil de comparar as propriedades dos testes com diferentes matrizes de vizinhança e corrigir o tamanho ao comparar a potência dos testes. Eu obtenho teste invariante ótimo que é também localmente uniformemente mais potente (LUMPI). Construo o envelope de potência para o teste LUMPI e mostro que ele é virtualmente UMP, pois a potência do teste está muito próxima ao envelope (considerando as estruturas espaciais definidas na dissertação). Eu sugiro um procedimento prático para construir um teste que tem boa potência em uma gama de situações onde talvez o teste LUMPI não tenha boas propriedades. Eu concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com o tamanho da amostra e com o parâmetro de dependência espacial (o que está de acordo com a literatura). Entretanto, disputo a visão consensual que a potência do teste diminui a medida que a matriz de vizinhança fica mais densa. Isto reflete um erro de medida comum na literatura, pois a distância estatística entre a hipótese nula e a alternativa varia muito com a estrutura da matriz. Fazendo a correção, concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com a distância da alternativa à nula, como esperado.

Essays on the credit channel of monetary policy: a case study for Brazil

The onset of the financial crisis in 2008 and the European sovereign crisis in 2010 renewed the interest of macroeconomists on the role played by credit in business cycle fluctuations. The purpose of the present work is to present empirical evidence on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Brazil with a special eye on the role played by the credit channel, using different econometric techniques. It is comprised by three articles. The first one presents a review of the literature of financial frictions, with a focus on the overlaps between credit activity and the monetary policy. It highlights how the sharp disruptions in the financial markets spurred central banks in developed and emerging nations to deploy of a broad set of non conventional tools to overcome the damage on financial intermediation. A chapter is dedicated to the challenge face by the policymaking in emerging markets and Brazil in particular in the highly integrated global capital market. This second article investigates the implications of the credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the case of Brazil, using a structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) approach. The term “structural” comes from the estimation strategy, which generates factors that have a clear economic interpretation. The results show that unexpected shocks in the proxies for the external finance premium and the credit volume produce large and persistent fluctuations in inflation and economic activity – accounting for more than 30% of the error forecast variance of the latter in a three-year horizon. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the credit channel amplified the economic contraction in Brazil during the acute phase of the global financial crisis in the last quarter of 2008, thus gave an important impulse to the recovery period that followed. In the third articles, I make use of Bayesian estimation of a classical neo-Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating the financial accelerator channel developed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999). The results present evidences in line to those already seen in the previous article: disturbances on the external finance premium – represented here by credit spreads – trigger significant responses on the aggregate demand and inflation and monetary policy shocks are amplified by the financial accelerator mechanism. Keywords: Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Credit Channel, Financial Accelerator, FAVAR, DSGE, Bayesian Econometrics

WTO-plus commitments on the elimination of export duties: evidence of a two-tier membership?

This descriptive paper examines the prevalence of ‘WTO-plus’ commitments in accession protocols of newly acceded Members, with a focus on commitments on the elimination of export duties. It presents preliminary results of a mapping exercise carried out with respect to these commitments and seeks to answer two questions. First, can any general conclusions be drawn as to the prevalence of these commitments or are they, per definition, country-specific. Second, has the political nature of the WTO accession process allowed for the creation of a two-tier membership. The first question is answered by relying on data gathered as part of the ongoing PhD-research project conducted by the author. The project aims to construct a typology of WTO-plus commitments to allow for a more detailed analysis of the relationship between these commitments and the baseline obligations in the covered agreements. The accession of China to the WTO is commonly considered as the prime example of the inclusion of WTO-plus obligations in accession protocols. The paper tries to answer the question whether this particular accession was truly unique in nature, or whether the inclusion of “Plus” obligations is less exceptional than often assumed. Additionally, the accession protocols of other recently acceded-Members are examined to establish whether the hypothesis holds. In the PhD-research project this comparative methodology will also be applied to map WTO-plus commitments in other areas, such as anti-dumping and transparency. The second question will be answered in two stages. In a preliminary stage, international institutional law will be used to by analyzing the way in which the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body has dealt with this type of WTO-plus commitment in its jurisprudence. The second stage deals with the question of hierarchy: Accession Protocols are negotiated with the WTO Membership, by each country willing to accede to the WTO. This poses questions as to their exact position in the system of WTO law. To establish whether evidence of a two-tier membership is present, one first has to turn back to the question whether Accession Protocols are a separate (or independent) legal instrument or an “integral part” of the WTO system of covered agreements. If newly acceded Members do not benefit from the general exceptions in order to balance their more stringent, WTO-plus, obligations, this may support the conclusion that the membership of the World Trade Organization is becoming, in fact, two-tiered.

Equidade educacional no Brasil: análise das oportunidades educacionais em 2001 e 2011

Esta tese tem por objetivo analisar a equidade educacional no Brasil, em 2001 e 2011. Para tanto, avaliarei as oportunidades dos alunos de terem professores mais qualificados, verificando a evolução por gênero, cor/raça e nível socioeconômico. O referencial teórico da tese divide-se em duas partes: o debate sobre equidade e a discussão sobre a importância da escola e de seus recursos e processos internos. Na primeira parte, apresento diversas perspectivas sobre equidade e proponho a divisão do campo em três linhas, além de inserir o debate num contexto mais amplo sobre justiça social. Utilizarei, nesta pesquisa, a abordagem pluralista, que entende equidade como um termo que engloba recursos, processos e resultados. Na segunda parte, trato da importância da escola para o desempenho dos alunos a partir da apresentação de pesquisas que comprovam que as escolas são peças fundamentais para o desempenho dos alunos, principalmente em países desiguais. Dentre os recursos e processos escolares, verifica-se que os professores têm o maior impacto sobre as notas – e, portanto, são capazes de trazer maior contribuição para políticas educacionais equitativas. O debate sobre a importância da escola e dos professores para o desempenho dos alunos é particularmente relevante no Brasil, onde a literatura demonstra um grande impacto das escolas e dos professores sobre os resultados escolares, atrelado a uma enorme desigualdade na distribuição dos recursos. Feita a discussão teórica, apresento o modelo elaborado para analisar a equidade no Brasil, em 2001 e 2011. Desenvolvi um modelo logístico para determinar as oportunidades de um aluno ter professores mais qualificados – classificados, neste trabalho, a partir de quatro características: diploma de ensino superior, pós-graduação, experiência em sala de aula e que faça a cobertura do currículo. São apresentadas duas especificações do modelo: simples, que contém apenas características dos alunos como variáveis independentes; e completa, que, além das características dos alunos, inclui informações sobre os estados, sobre o tipo de rede (privada ou pública) e sobre a localidade (rural ou urbana). As análises são conduzidas para o 5º e 9º ano, em 2001 e 2011, utilizando os dados do SAEB de Língua Portuguesa e Matemática. Os resultados apontam para quatro conclusões importantes: em primeiro lugar, o nível socioeconômico mostrou-se mais relevante na determinação das oportunidades educacionais em comparação à cor/raça ou gênero dos alunos; em segundo lugar, há semelhança nas tendências de desempenho do 5º e 9º anos, com a identificação de três padrões de evolução das oportunidades educacionais; em terceiro lugar, verifica-se que o impacto das características observáveis dos professores sobre a proficiência dos alunos mudou de 2001 a 2011, em decorrência das políticas de incentivo à escolarização docente; por fim, verifica-se grande heterogeneidade dentre os estados brasileiros, com os estados das regiões Sul e Sudeste garantindo maior oportunidade educacional aos alunos. Com base nestes resultados, aponto, nas considerações finais, para três pilares presentes em países mais equitativos: a definição de padrões mínimos de recursos e processos; a adoção de políticas compensatórias e a discriminação positiva na distribuição dos recursos; e, por fim, o investimento nos professores.

Private equity regulation: what are the consequences of the alternative investment fund managers directive (AIFMD) on private equity managers?

The recent global financial crisis brought significant regulatory changes in the worldwide financial industry. In Europe and in the alternative asset sector specifically, a new regulation by the name of Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive saw the daylight in 2010. This far-reaching and complex Directive with the main goal of regulating and overseeing alternative investment funds has triggered many discussions and represents an industry game-changer. Thus, this research will focus on the impact and consequences of the Directive on private equity fund managers and the role of regulators. In other words, what are the effects, what does that mean in a quantitative and qualitative sense, and how is it likely to influence the outlook of this asset class? In order to provide the reader with an extensive view on the topic, the paper will first discuss relevant theory and literature, using mix-methods and legal-dogmatic approaches. Further, descriptive case studies, analysis of existing surveys, and interviews with industry experts will supplement the paper in order to understand primary implications of the Directive with the goal of providing useful insights for further private equity regulation research.

International civil society actors in Genetically Modificied Organisms as a field of struggle: a neo-gramscian study in Brazil and the United Kingdom

Since the international financial and food crisis that started in 2008, strong emphasis has been made on the importance of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) (or “transgenics”) under the claim that they could contribute to increase food productivity at a global level, as the world population is predicted to reach 9.1 billion in the year 2050 and food demand is predicted to increase by as much as 50% by 2030. GMOs are now at the forefront of the debates and struggles of different actors. Within civil society actors, it is possible to observe multiple, and sometime, conflicting roles. The role of international social movements and international NGOs in the GMO field of struggle is increasingly relevant. However, while many of these international civil society actors oppose this type of technological developments (alleging, for instance, environmental, health and even social harms), others have been reportedly cooperating with multinational corporations, retailers, and the biotechnology industry to promote GMOs. In this thesis research, I focus on analysing the role of “international civil society” in the GMO field of struggle by asking: “what are the organizing strategies of international civil society actors, such as NGOs and social movements, in GMO governance as a field of struggle?” To do so, I adopt a neo-Gramscian discourse approach based on the studies of Laclau and Mouffe. This theoretical approach affirms that in a particular hegemonic regime there are contingent alliances and forces that overpass the spheres of the state and the economy, while civil society actors can be seen as a “glue” to the way hegemony functions. Civil society is then the site where hegemony is consented, reproduced, sustained, channelled, but also where counter-hegemonic and emancipatory forces can emerge. Considering the importance of civil society actors in the construction of hegemony, I also discuss some important theories around them. The research combines, on the one hand, 36 in-depth interviews with a range of key civil society actors and scientists representing the GMO field of struggle in Brazil (19) and the UK (17), and, on the other hand, direct observations of two events: Rio+20 in Rio de Janeiro in 2012, and the first March Against Monsanto in London in 2013. A brief overview of the GMO field of struggle, from its beginning and especially focusing in the 1990s when the process of hegemonic formation became clearer, serves as the basis to map who are the main actors in this field, how resource mobilization works, how political opportunities (“historical contingencies”) are discovered and exploited, which are the main discourses (“science” and “sustainability” - articulated by “biodiversity preservation”, “food security” and “ecological agriculture”) articulated among the actors to construct a collective identity in order to attract new potential allies around “GMOs” (“nodal point”), and which are the institutions and international regulations within these processes that enable hegemony to emerge in meaningful and durable hegemonic links. This mapping indicates that that the main strategies applied by the international civil society actors are influenced by two central historical contingencies in the GMO field of struggle: 1) First Multi-stakeholder Historical Contingency; and 2) “Supposed” Hegemony Stability. These two types of historical contingency in the GMO field of struggle encompass deeper hegemonic articulations and, because of that, they induce international civil society actors to rethink the way they articulate and position themselves within the field. Therefore, depending on one of those moments, they will apply one specific strategy of discourse articulation, such as: introducing a new discourse in hegemony articulation to capture the attention of the public and of institutions; endorsing new plural demands; increasing collective visibility; facilitating material articulations; sharing a common enemy identity; or spreading new ideological elements among the actors in the field of struggle.

Analysis of the ABC Program resources

This is the executive summary of the second of four reports that compose, among others, the activities of the second working year of the ABC Plan Observatory1 . It aims to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the ABC Program's performance – the main line of credit for the financing of low-carbon agriculture in Brazil. In addition to presenting high points of the results of the 2013/14 crop year, it also reveals a regional and state overview of the distribution of resources and a focus on the Legal Amazon situation regarding the adoption of low carbon agriculture methods in the region. The main theme for the analysis is the spatial distribution of the ABC Program's credit in the country and the reasons, bottlenecks and opportunities for the expansion of more sustainable production methods, especially regarding the conditions of Brazilian technical support and its activities among rural producers.

On paternalistic leadership fit: exploring cross-cultural endorsement, leader-follower fit, and the boundary role of organizational culture

Although cross-cultural leadership research has thrived in international business literature, little attention has been devoted to understanding the effectiveness of non-western theories beyond their original contexts. The purpose of this study is to examine the cross-cultural endorsement of paternalistic leadership, an emerging non-western leadership theory, using data from GLOBE project. Using multigroup confirmatory factor analyses we found measurement equivalence of a scale derived from GLOBE’s data, which enabled us to compare the endorsement of paternalistic leadership dimensions across 10 cultural clusters and 55 societies. Our study revealed that there are significant differences in the importance societies give to each dimension, suggesting that paternalism as leadership style is not universally nor homogeneously endorsed. Furthermore, results suggest that different patterns of endorsement of each of these dimensions give rise to idiosyncratic shades of paternalistic leadership across societies. Implications for theory and future research on international business are discussed.

The impact of content marketing on attitudes and purchase intentions of online shoppers : the case videos & tutorials and user-generated content

This thesis was written as part of a Double-Degree Masters program in Management, with focus in Marketing. Aligned with the nature of the degree, this study aims to be a useful tool for managers and marketers, which conduct business online. This thesis is a study of Content Marketing in the content of online commercial product pages. Its aim is to understand how to use content marketing to drive conversion, by understanding consumer attitudes and purchase intention towards content. A in-depth study of existing theories and exploratory primary research was developed in other to attain these objectives. Business-to-consumer electronic commerce (B2C e-commerce) has provided consumers and online retailers with a more effective medium to perform online transactions through commercial websites. Although consumers have realized that the benefits of online shopping; such as time saving, minimizing effort, convenience, broader selection, and wider access to information, they are still greatly unwilling to shop online. Consumers shop essentially for two motives, to meet experiential (fun) or goal-oriented (efficiency) needs (Wolfinbarger & Gilly, 2001). The information provided by content marketing seeks to focus on consumers need for information and entertainment, instead of focusing on the brand. Thus, it is expected that the type of content format will have different effects on the attitudes and purchase intention on the online shopper, depending on the online shopping purpose. Concretely, a goal-oriented shopper should find user generated content (UGC) to be more valuable content formats, since they decrease the amount of search effort. While on the other hand, videos & tutorials (VT) might be perceived as more valuable for a consumer looking to spend time and being entertained through online shopping. The exploratory research was characterized by a survey experiment with online consumers. Participants were exposed to stimuli of content marketing tested according to their attitudes and purchase intention. The focus was to understand the impact of two different content marketing tactics—User-generated content and Videos & Tutorials—on attitudes and purchase intentions and how they interact with content complexity. The results indicate that content marketing in commercial product pages is relevant in driving consumer attitudes and purchase intentions. Consumers are not motivated by a specific content marketing tactic, unless that content has a certain level of complexity. In that case, Ur-Generated Content becomes a relevant tactic in product pages, however VT is not.

Analise SWOT do gerenciamento de resíduos do coco verde em duas agroindústrias do estado do Rio Grande do Norte

In the current conjuncture, the environmental factor has been changing the position of companies that are practicing or minimally adopting environmental management. Such tool has been used by companies to face the problems caused by solid waste, in particular green coconut waste, which is constantly among the material discarded by society (companies/ consumer). It is a typical tropical fruit whose fresh water is very benefic for human health, and its popularization has caused a progressive increase of its consumption. Following this stream of thought, this present work came up with an analysis of strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities SWOT analysis on green coconut solid waste management at two agribusiness companies in the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil, aiming to know the challenges and the potentials of this kind of waste. According to the approach of the problem, this work fits a descriptive, exploratory, and qualitative research. The data collection was obtained by a questionnaire and a structured interview, in order to evaluate the strategic posture of agribusiness companies through SWOT analysis, which is an English acronym for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. The SWOT analysis is an effective tool to analyze the internal and external environment of an organization. This tool contributes to locate the company at the environment in question and when well applied it enables the detection of mistakes, the strengthening of correct procedures, the avoidance of threats, and the bet on opportunities. The studied agribusiness industries have very similar profiles, such as a long business life span, and a strategy that extends the useful life of the fruit, by using its waste for the manufacturing of new subproducts. In both, the daily quantity of waste resulted of this process reaches approximately 20 thousand units of the fruit in high season, being necessary a focus directed at use and/or treatment of these waste. Further to SWOT analysis, it was ascertained that the agribusiness company A works through a defensive marketing strategy and acts vulnerably, in other words, unable of acting before this market segment, for it has decided to stop using the waste due to a lack of equipment and technology. On the other hand, the agribusiness company B has incorporated an offensive marketing strategy because even not possessing equipments, technology, and appropriated internal installations, it still insists on use and benefits of green coconut waste in its agribusiness. Thus, it is considered that the potential of green coconut waste management for the production of several subproducts reduces the impacts produced by inappropriate placement and generates profits in a short, medium and long term. Such profits being tangible and intangible, as the interest for sustainability actions is not only a matter of obtaining return on capital, but it is an important question in order to move on into business, since it is not enough to have quality on products and process nowadays. It is necessary to establish socio-environmental practices aiming the image of the company as the prevailing role on consumers buying decision

On developing efficient applications using conservative distributed simulation paradigm

This paper aims to present, using a set of guidelines, how to apply the conservative distributed simulation paradigm (CMB protocol) to develop efficient applications. Using these guidelines, even a user with little experience on distributed simulation and computer architecture can have good performance on distributed simulations using conservative synchronization protocols for parallel processes.The set of guidelines is focus on a specific application domain, the performance evaluation of computer systems, considering models with coarse granularity and few logical processes and running over two platforms: parallel (high performance communication environment) and distributed (low performance communication environment).

New Insights on Nontechnical Losses Characterization Through Evolutionary-Based Feature Selection

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Brazilian Students and Working Capital: An Analysis of Their Decisions When Using Virtual Market Business Games

This study aims to demonstrate that data from business games can be an important resource for improving efficiency and effectiveness of learning. The proposal presented here was developed from preliminary studies of data from Virtual Market games that pointed the possibility of identifying gaps in learning by analyzing the decisions of students. This proposal helps students to refine their learning processes and equips tutors with strategies for teaching and student assessment. The proposal also complements the group discussion and/or debriefing, which are widely used to enhance learning mediated by games. However, from a management perspective the model has the potential to be erroneous and miss opportunities, which cannot be detected because of the dependence on the characteristics of the individual, such as ability to communicate and work together. To illustrate the proposed technique, data sets from two business games were analyzed with the focus on managing working capital and it was found that students had difficulties managing this task. Similar trends were observed in all categories of students in the study-undergraduate, postgraduate and specialization. This discovery led us to the analysis of data for decisions made in the performance of the games, and it was determined that indicators could be developed that were capable of indentifying inconsistencies in the decisions. It was decided to apply some basic concepts of the finance management, such as management of the operational and non-operational expenditures, as well as production management concepts, such as the use of the production capacity. By analyzing the data from the Virtual Market games using the indicator concept, it was possible to detect the lack of domain knowledge of the students. Therefore, these indicators can be used to analyze the decisions of the players and guide them during the game, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency. As these indicators were developed from specific content, they can also be used to develop teaching materials to support learning. Viewed in this light, the proposal adds new possibilities for using business games in learning. In addition to the intrinsic learning that is achieved through playing the games, they also assist in driving the learning process. This study considers the applications and the methodology used.

On certain curves of genus three in characteristic two

We study curves of genus 3 over algebraically closed fields of characteristic 2 with the canonical theta characteristic totally supported in one point. We compute the moduli dimension of such curves and focus on some of them which have two Weierstrass points with Weierstrass directions towards the support of the theta characteristic. We answer questions related to order sequence and Weierstrass weight of Weierstrass points and the existence of other Weierstrass points with similar properties.

The influence of cardiopulmonary bypass operation on the biodistribution of 99mTc-HMPAO-labelled granulocytes – Evaluation in pigs by planar scintigraphy and section-analyses

Aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of an extra corporal perfusion (cardiopulmonary bypass operation - cpb) on activation and biodistribution of Tc-99m labelled granulocytes in pigs with and without inhibition of the granulocytes by a leukocyte inhibition module (LIM). The cpb is often related to an activation of granulocytes resulting in an inflammatory answer. The biological mechanisms are unsolved yet. First trials of our group showed that LIM may inhibit the activation of neutrophils and therefore antagonize a cpb-caused impairment of cardiac function. This study is the continuation of these experiments with a higher number of animals and the focus on scintigraphic imaging. Animals, material, methods: 39 German landrace pigs were subdivided into three groups: group A (control) median sternotomy without cpb, group B with cpb, group C with LIM in addition to cpb. After labelling with Tc-99m-HMPAO autologues granulocytes were reinjected. Subsequently to cpb, the animals underwent scintigraphic imaging. Quantification was performed with ROI evaluation and with tissue samples (section analysis) examined in a well counter. Results:A high uptake of Tc-99m-HMPAO was found in the liver. The count rates in brain, heart, lung, spleen and kidneys were far below. The amount of Tc-99m-activity in the organ related to the half life corrected administered activity [%] was for the tissue samples (group A/B/C): brain 0.01/0.02/0.03; lung 12.1/8.3/11.5; heart 0.35/0.54/0.42; kidney 1.24/0.87/1.02; spleen 4.0/4.0/4.5, liver 16.8/20.9/19.6. The count rates determined by ROI-evaluation of the scintigraphic images related to the total count rate in the image [%] were (group A/B/C): brain 1.1/0.9/1.0; lung 15.6/10.4/12.2; heart 4.0/3.5/3.4; kidney 4.0/2.9/3.2; spleen 7.6/7.7/9.5, liver 23.1/36.7/31.4. A significant difference in the tracer uptake between the groups could neither be detected by scintigraphic imaging nor evaluation of tissue samples. Conclusion: Scintigraphic imaging as well as section analysis showed a comparable biodistribution of the tracer. Therefore, the initial results of our group were not confirmed with a considerably higher number of animals. Neither cpb nor the use of the LIM influenced distribution of Tc-99m-labelled granulocytes in pigs significantly.