The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Le développement de la prosodie dans le syndrome de Williams et le syndrome de Down chez des enfants de langue anglaise

The aim of the present study is to investigate the developmental profile of three aspects of prosody function, i.e. affect, focus and turn-endings in children with Williams and in those with Down’s syndrome compared to typically developing English speaking children. The tasks used were part of the computer-based battery, Profiling Elements of Prosody for Speech Communication (Peppe, McCann & Gibon, 2003). Cross-sectional developmental trajectories linking chronological and non-verbal mental age and affects and turn-ending functions of prosody were constructed. The results showed an atypical profile in both clinical populations. More interestingly, the profiles were atypical for different reasons, suggesting multiple and possibly different developmental pathways to the acquisition of prosody in these two populations.

Influence of multi-scale landscape structure on the occurrence of carnivorous mammals in a human-modified savanna, Brazil

So Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and contains few fragments of native ecosystems, generally surrounded by intensive agriculture lands. Despite this, some areas still shelter large native animals. We aimed at understanding how medium and large carnivores use a mosaic landscape of forest/savanna and agroecosystems, and how the species respond to different landscape parameters (percentage of landcover and edge density), in a multi-scale perspective. The response variables were: species richness, carnivore frequency and frequency for the three most recorded species (Puma concolor, Chrysocyon brachyurus and Leopardus pardalis). We compared 11 competing models using Akaike`s information criterion (AIC) and assessed model support using weight of AIC. Concurrent models were combinations of landcover types (native vegetation, ""cerrado"" formations, ""cerrado"" and eucalypt plantation), landscape feature (percentage of landcover and edge density) and spatial scale. Herein, spatial scale refers to the radius around a sampling point defining a circular landscape. The scales analyzed were 250 (fine), 1,000 (medium) and 2,000 m (coarse). The shape of curves for response variables (linear, exponential and power) was also assessed. Our results indicate that species with high mobility, P. concolor and C. brachyurus, were best explained by edge density of the native vegetation at a coarse scale (2,000 m). The relationship between P. concolor and C. brachyurus frequency had a negative power-shaped response to explanatory variables. This general trend was also observed for species richness and carnivore frequency. Species richness and P. concolor frequency were also well explained by a second concurrent model: edge density of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. A different response was recorded for L. pardalis, as the frequency was best explained for the amount of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. The curve of response was linearly positive. The contrasting results (P. concolor and C. brachyurus vs L. pardalis) may be due to the much higher mobility of the two first species, in comparison with the third. Still, L. pardalis requires habitat with higher quality when compared with other two species. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when evaluating species responses to different habitats. An important and new finding was the prevalence of edge density over the habitat extension to explain overall carnivore distribution, a key information for planning and management of protected areas.

Catalase-peroxidase activity is decreased in a Caulobacter crescentus rho mutant

A Caulobacter crescentus rho:Tn5 mutant strain presenting a partially functional transcription termination factor Rho is highly sensitive to hydrogen peroxide in both exponential and stationary phases. The mutant was shown to be permanently under oxidative stress, based on fluorophore oxidation, and also to be sensitive to tert-butyl hydroperoxide and paraquat. However, the results showed that the activities of superoxide dismutases CuZnSOD and FeSOD and the alkylhydroperoxide reductase ahpC mRNA levels in the rho mutant were comparable to the wild-type control in the exponential and stationary phases. In contrast, the KatG catalase activity of the rho mutant strain was drastically decreased and did not show the expected increase in the stationary phase compared with the exponential phase. Transcription of the katG gene was increased in the rho mutant and the levels of the immunoreactive KatG protein do not differ considerably compared with the wild type in the stationary phase, suggesting that KatG activity is affected in a translational or a post-translational step.

Dynamics of a class of ODEs more general than almost periodic

A temporally global solution, if it exists, of a nonautonomous ordinary differential equation need not be periodic, almost periodic or almost automorphic when the forcing term is periodic, almost periodic or almost automorphic, respectively. An alternative class of functions extending periodic and almost periodic functions which has the property that a bounded temporally global solution solution of a nonautonomous ordinary differential equation belongs to this class when the forcing term does is introduced here. Specifically, the class of functions consists of uniformly continuous functions, defined on the real line and taking values in a Banach space, which have pre-compact ranges. Besides periodic and almost periodic functions, this class also includes many nonrecurrent functions. Assuming a hyperbolic structure for the unperturbed linear equation and certain properties for the linear and nonlinear parts, the existence of a special bounded entire solution, as well the existence of stable and unstable manifolds of this solution are established. Moreover, it is shown that this solution and these manifolds inherit the temporal behaviour of the vector field equation. In the stable case it is shown that this special solution is the pullback attractor of the system. A class of infinite dimensional examples involving a linear operator consisting of a time independent part which generates a C(0)-semigroup plus a small time dependent part is presented and applied to systems of coupled heat and beam equations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An improved finite element space for discontinuous pressures

We consider incompressible Stokes flow with an internal interface at which the pressure is discontinuous, as happens for example in problems involving surface tension. We assume that the mesh does not follow the interface, which makes classical interpolation spaces to yield suboptimal convergence rates (typically, the interpolation error in the L(2)(Omega)-norm is of order h(1/2)). We propose a modification of the P(1)-conforming space that accommodates discontinuities at the interface without introducing additional degrees of freedom or modifying the sparsity pattern of the linear system. The unknowns are the pressure values at the vertices of the mesh and the basis functions are computed locally at each element, so that the implementation of the proposed space into existing codes is straightforward. With this modification, numerical tests show that the interpolation order improves to O(h(3/2)). The new pressure space is implemented for the stable P(1)(+)/P(1) mini-element discretization, and for the stabilized equal-order P(1)/P(1) discretization. Assessment is carried out for Poiseuille flow with a forcing surface and for a static bubble. In all cases the proposed pressure space leads to improved convergence orders and to more accurate results than the standard P(1) space. In addition, two Navier-Stokes simulations with moving interfaces (Rayleigh-Taylor instability and merging bubbles) are reported to show that the proposed space is robust enough to carry out realistic simulations. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constraining the nuclear gluon distribution in eA processes at RHIC

A systematic determination of the gluon distribution is of fundamental interest in understanding the parton structure Of nuclei and the QCD dynamics. Currently, the behavior of this distribution at small x (high energy) is completely undefined. In this Letter we analyze the possibility of constraining the nuclear effects present in Xg(A) using the inclusive observables which would be measured in the future electron-nucleus collider at RHIC. We demonstrate that the Study of nuclear longitudinal and charm structure functions allows to estimate the magnitude of shadowing and antishadowing effects in the nuclear gluon distribution. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Could saturation effects be visible in a future electron-ion collider?

We expect to observe parton saturation in a future electron-ion collider. In this Letter we discuss this expectation in more detail considering two different models which are in good agreement with the existing experimental data on nuclear structure functions. In particular, we study the predictions of saturation effects in electron-ion collisions at high energies, using a generalization for nuclear targets of the b-CGC model, which describes the ep HERA quite well. We estimate the total. longitudinal and charm structure functions in the dipole picture and compare them with the predictions obtained using collinear factorization and modern sets of nuclear parton distributions. Our results show that inclusive observables are not very useful in the search for saturation effects. In the small x region they are very difficult to disentangle from the predictions of the collinear approaches. This happens mainly because of the large uncertainties in the determination of the nuclear parton distribution functions. On the other hand, our results indicate that the contribution of diffractive processes to the total cross section is about 20% at large A and small Q(2), allowing for a detailed study of diffractive observables. The study of diffractive processes becomes essential to observe parton Saturation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Corpus callosum in maltreated children with posttraumatic stress disorder: A diffusion tensor imaging study

Contrary to expectations derived from preclinical studies of the effects of stress, and imaging studies of adults with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), there is no evidence of hippocampus atrophy in children with PTSD. Multiple pediatric studies have reported reductions in the corpus callosum - the primary white matter tract in the brain. Consequently, in the present study, diffusion tensor imaging was used to assess white matter integrity in the corpus callosum in 17 maltreated children with PTSD and 15 demographically matched normal controls. Children with PTSD had reduced fractional anisotropy in the medial and posterior corpus, a region which contains interhemispheric projections from brain structures involved in circuits that mediate the processing of emotional stimuli and various memory functions - core disturbances associated with a history of trauma. Further exploration of the effects of stress on the corpus callosum and white matter development appears a promising strategy to better understand the pathophysiology of PTSD in children. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Systemarkitektur för presentation av geografiskinformation- Utredning av Informationssystem och produkter

Banverket Trafik has a responsibility to make sure that the companies who traffic the Swedish railroad have the correct information about the status of the railroad. One of Banverket Trafiks information systems (Opera) presents the train’s actual position on a map and provides the user with physical information about the trains. Due to increasing demands on the information systems, Banverket Trafik needs to update the present system architecture in order to manage the increasing demands on map graphics and map functions. This paper analysis the information system Opera on the basis of theory and support of methods and discuss problems and demands for Opera. Further we investigate three GIS products to se if they meet the demands. Information about the products was gathered from both supplier and independent users to get a just picture of the products potentials. This paper comprises a suggestion of new system architecture that meet these needs. The suggested system architecture is capable of handling the map graphics and the map’s functions of more than one information system. Hopefully more than one information system will use the suggested system architecture as a map service.

QoS evaluation of bandwidth schedulersin IPTV networks offered SRD fluidvideo traffic: a simulation study

IPTV is now offered by several operators in Europe, US and Asia using broadcast video over private IP networks that are isolated from Internet. IPTV services rely ontransmission of live (real-time) video and/or stored video. Video on Demand (VoD)and Time-shifted TV are implemented by IP unicast and Broadcast TV (BTV) and Near video on demand are implemented by IP multicast. IPTV services require QoS guarantees and can tolerate no more than 10-6 packet loss probability, 200 ms delay, and 50 ms jitter. Low delay is essential for satisfactory trick mode performance(pause, resume,fast forward) for VoD, and fast channel change time for BTV. Internet Traffic Engineering (TE) is defined in RFC 3272 and involves both capacity management and traffic management. Capacity management includes capacityplanning, routing control, and resource management. Traffic management includes (1)nodal traffic control functions such as traffic conditioning, queue management, scheduling, and (2) other functions that regulate traffic flow through the network orthat arbitrate access to network resources. An IPTV network architecture includes multiple networks (core network, metronetwork, access network and home network) that connects devices (super head-end, video hub office, video serving office, home gateway, set-top box). Each IP router in the core and metro networks implements some queueing and packet scheduling mechanism at the output link controller. Popular schedulers in IP networks include Priority Queueing (PQ), Class-Based Weighted Fair Queueing (CBWFQ), and Low Latency Queueing (LLQ) which combines PQ and CBWFQ.The thesis analyzes several Packet Scheduling algorithms that can optimize the tradeoff between system capacity and end user performance for the traffic classes. Before in the simulator FIFO,PQ,GPS queueing methods were implemented inside. This thesis aims to implement the LLQ scheduler inside the simulator and to evaluate the performance of these packet schedulers. The simulator is provided by ErnstNordström and Simulator was built in Visual C++ 2008 environmentand tested and analyzed in MatLab 7.0 under windows VISTA.

Ellipsis as a marker of interaction in spoken discourse

In this article, we discuss strategies for interaction in spoken discourse, focusing on ellipsis phenomena in English. The data comes from the VOICE corpus of English as a Lingua Franca, and we analyse education data in the form of seminar and workshop discussions, working group meetings, interviews and conversations. The functions ellipsis carries in the data are Intersubjectivity, where participants develop and maintain an understanding in discourse; Continuers, which are examples of back channel support; Correction, both self- and other-initiated; Repetition; and Comments, which are similar to Continuers but do not have a back channel support function. We see that the first of these, Intersubjectivity, is by far the most popular, followed by Repetitions and Comments. These results are explained as consequences of the nature of the texts themselves, as some are discussions of presentations and so can be expected to contain many Repetitions, for example. The speech event is also an important factor, as events with asymmetrical power relations like interviews do not contain so many Continuers. Our clear conclusion is that the use of ellipsis is a strong marker of interaction in spoken discourse.

Técnicas de avaliação da confiabilidade em estruturas de concreto armado

Neste trabalho é dado ênfase à inclusão das incertezas na avaliação do comportamento estrutural, objetivando uma melhor representação das características do sistema e uma quantificação do significado destas incertezas no projeto. São feitas comparações entre as técnicas clássicas existentes de análise de confiabilidade, tais como FORM, Simulação Direta Monte Carlo (MC) e Simulação Monte Carlo com Amostragem por Importância Adaptativa (MCIS), e os métodos aproximados da Superfície de Resposta( RS) e de Redes Neurais Artificiais(ANN). Quando possível, as comparações são feitas salientando- se as vantagens e inconvenientes do uso de uma ou de outra técnica em problemas com complexidades crescentes. São analisadas desde formulações com funções de estado limite explícitas até formulações implícitas com variabilidade espacial de carregamento e propriedades dos materiais, incluindo campos estocásticos. É tratado, em especial, o problema da análise da confiabilidade de estruturas de concreto armado incluindo o efeito da variabilidade espacial de suas propriedades. Para tanto é proposto um modelo de elementos finitos para a representação do concreto armado que incorpora as principais características observadas neste material. Também foi desenvolvido um modelo para a geração de campos estocásticos multidimensionais não Gaussianos para as propriedades do material e que é independente da malha de elementos finitos, assim como implementadas técnicas para aceleração das avaliações estruturais presentes em qualquer das técnicas empregadas. Para o tratamento da confiabilidade através da técnica da Superfície de Resposta, o algoritmo desenvolvido por Rajashekhar et al(1993) foi implementado. Já para o tratamento através de Redes Neurais Artificias, foram desenvolvidos alguns códigos para a simulação de redes percéptron multicamada e redes com função de base radial e então implementados no algoritmo de avaliação de confiabilidade desenvolvido por Shao et al(1997). Em geral, observou-se que as técnicas de simulação tem desempenho bastante baixo em problemas mais complexos, sobressaindo-se a técnica de primeira ordem FORM e as técnicas aproximadas da Superfície de Resposta e de Redes Neurais Artificiais, embora com precisão prejudicada devido às aproximações presentes.

Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the testing of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by gauging the distance between the parametric density and hazard rate functions implied by the duration process and their non-parametric estimates. We derive the asymptotic justification using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, and then investigate the finite-sample properties through Monte Carlo simulations. Although our tests display some size distortion, bootstrapping suffices to correct the size without compromising their excellent power. We show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures for the estimation of intraday volatility patterns.