DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECOCAR 3 PROPOSAL AND GUIDELINES FOR MODELING AND DESIGN IN YEAR ONE OF ECOCAR 3

This report summarizes the work done for the Vehicle Powertrain Modeling and Design Problem Proposal portion of the EcoCAR3 proposal as specified in the Request for Proposal from Argonne National Laboratory. The results of the modeling exercises presented in the proposal showed that: An average conventional vehicle powered by a combustion engine could not meet the energy consumption target when the engine was sized to meet the acceleration target, due the relatively low thermal efficiency of the spark ignition engine. A battery electric vehicle could not meet the required range target of 320 km while keeping the vehicle weight below the gross vehicle weight rating of 2000 kg. This was due to the low energy density of the batteries which necessitated a large, and heavy, battery pack to provide enough energy to meet the range target. A series hybrid electric vehicle has the potential to meet the acceleration and energy consumption parameters when the components are optimally sized. A parallel hybrid electric vehicle has less energy conversion losses than a series hybrid electric vehicle which results in greater overall efficiency, lower energy consumption, and less emissions. For EcoCAR3, Michigan Tech proposes to develop a plug-in parallel hybrid vehicle (PPHEV) powered by a small Diesel engine operating on B20 Bio-Diesel fuel. This architecture was chosen over other options due to its compact design, lower cost, and its ability to provide performance levels and energy efficiency that meet or exceed the design targets. While this powertrain configuration requires a more complex control system and strategy than others, the student engineering team at Michigan Tech has significant recent experience with this architecture and has confidence that it will perform well in the events planned for the EcoCAR3 competition.

The Livingston Formation of the South Boulder Area

The Livingston formation is a thick succession of late Cretaceous lava flows, tuffs, and bedded water-laid volcanic detritus 200 miles long and 100 miles wide lying along the eastern margin of the Rocky Mountains in western Montana from Augusta to Yellowstone Park. It differs markedly within short distances in lithologic character and sequences, and the total thickness may exceed one mile in some places.

How reliable is an undetectable viral load?

OBJECTIVES: An article by the Swiss AIDS Commission states that patients with stably suppressed viraemia [i.e. several successive HIV-1 RNA plasma concentrations (viral loads, VL) below the limits of detection during 6 months or more of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)] are unlikely to be infectious. Questions then arise: how reliable is the undetectability of the VL, given the history of measures? What factors determine reliability? METHODS: We assessed the probability (henceforth termed reliability) that the n+1 VL would exceed 50 or 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL when the nth one had been <50 copies/mL in 6168 patients of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who were continuing to take HAART between 2003 and 2007. General estimating equations were used to analyse potential factors of reliability. RESULTS: With a cut-off at 50 copies/mL, reliability was 84.5% (n=1), increasing to 94.5% (n=5). Compliance, the current type of HAART and the first antiretroviral therapy (ART) received (HAART or not) were predictive factors of reliability. With a cut-off at 1000 copies/mL, reliability was 97.5% (n=1), increasing to 99.1% (n=4). Chart review revealed that patients had stopped their treatment, admitted to major problems with compliance or were taking non-HAART ART in 72.2% of these cases. Viral escape caused by resistance was found in 5.6%. No explanation was found in the charts of 22.2% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: After several successive VLs at <50 copies/mL, reliability reaches approximately 94% with a cut-off of 50 copies/mL and approximately 99% with a cut-off at 1000 copies/mL. Compliance is the most important factor predicting reliability.

A three-dimensional histological atlas of the human basal ganglia. II. Atlas deformation strategy and evaluation in deep brain stimulation for Parkinson disease

OBJECT: The localization of any given target in the brain has become a challenging issue because of the increased use of deep brain stimulation to treat Parkinson disease, dystonia, and nonmotor diseases (for example, Tourette syndrome, obsessive compulsive disorders, and depression). The aim of this study was to develop an automated method of adapting an atlas of the human basal ganglia to the brains of individual patients. METHODS: Magnetic resonance images of the brain specimen were obtained before extraction from the skull and histological processing. Adaptation of the atlas to individual patient anatomy was performed by reshaping the atlas MR images to the images obtained in the individual patient using a hierarchical registration applied to a region of interest centered on the basal ganglia, and then applying the reshaping matrix to the atlas surfaces. RESULTS: Results were evaluated by direct visual inspection of the structures visible on MR images and atlas anatomy, by comparison with electrophysiological intraoperative data, and with previous atlas studies in patients with Parkinson disease. The method was both robust and accurate, never failing to provide an anatomically reliable atlas to patient registration. The registration obtained did not exceed a 1-mm mismatch with the electrophysiological signatures in the region of the subthalamic nucleus. CONCLUSIONS: This registration method applied to the basal ganglia atlas forms a powerful and reliable method for determining deep brain stimulation targets within the basal ganglia of individual patients.

How well do radiographic absorptiometry and quantitative ultrasound predict osteoporosis at spine or hip? A cost-effectiveness analysis

Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is widely accepted as the reference method for diagnosis and monitoring of osteoporosis and for assessment of fracture risk, especially at hip. However, axial-DXA is not suitable for mass screening, because it is usually confined to specialized centers. We propose a two-step diagnostic approach to postmenopausal osteoporosis: the first step, using an inexpensive, widely available screening technique, aims at risk stratification in postmenopausal women; the second step, DXA of spine and hip is applied only to potentially osteoporotic women preselected on the basis of the screening measurement. In a group of 110 healthy postmenopausal woman, the capability of various peripheral bone measurement techniques to predict osteoporosis at spine and/or hip (T-score < -2.5SD using DXA) was tested using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves: radiographic absorptiometry of phalanges (RA), ultrasonometry at calcaneus (QUS. CALC), tibia (SOS.TIB), and phalanges (SOS.PHAL). Thirty-three women had osteoporosis at spine and/or hip with DXA. Areas under the ROC curves were 0.84 for RA, 0.83 for QUS.CALC, 0.77 for SOS.PHAL (p < 0.04 vs RA) and 0.74 for SOS.TIB (p < 0.02 vs RA and p = 0.05 vs QUS.CALC). For levels of sensitivity of 90%, the respective specificities were 67% (RA), 64% (QUS.CALC), 48% (SOS.PHAL), and 39% (SOS.TIB). In a cost-effective two-step, the price of the first step should not exceed 54% (RA), 51% (QUS.CALC), 42% (SOS.PHAL), and 25% (SOS.TIB). In conclusion, RA, QUS.CALC, SOS.PHAL, and SOS.TIB may be useful to preselect postmenopausal women in whom axial DXA is indicated to confirm/exclude osteoporosis at spine or hip.

Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

A chrysophyte stomatocyst-based reconstruction of cold-season air temperature from Alpine Lake Silvaplana (AD 1500–2003); methods and concepts for quantitative inferences

Relatively little is known about past cold-season temperature variability in high-Alpine regions because of a lack of natural cold-season temperature proxies as well as under-representation of high-altitude sites in meteorological, early-instrumental and documentary data sources. Recent studies have shown that chrysophyte stomatocysts, or simply cysts (sub-fossil algal remains of Chrysophyceae and Synurophyceae), are among the very few natural proxies that can be used to reconstruct cold-season temperatures. This study presents a quantitative, high-resolution (5-year), cold-season (Oct–May) temperature reconstruction based on sub-fossil chrysophyte stomatocysts in the annually laminated (varved) sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, SE Switzerland (1,789 m a.s.l.), since AD 1500. We first explore the method used to translate an ecologically meaningful variable based on a biological proxy into a simple climate variable. A transfer function was applied to reconstruct the ‘date of spring mixing’ from cyst assemblages. Next, statistical regression models were tested to convert the reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ into cold-season surface air temperatures with associated errors. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are thoroughly tested. One much-debated, basic assumption for reconstructions (‘stationarity’), which states that only the environmental variable of interest has influenced cyst assemblages and the influence of confounding variables is negligible over time, is addressed in detail. Our inferences show that past cold-season air-temperature fluctuations were substantial and larger than those of other temperature reconstructions for Europe and the Alpine region. Interestingly, in this study, recent cold-season temperatures only just exceed those of previous, multi-decadal warm phases since AD 1500. These findings highlight the importance of local studies to assess natural climate variability at high altitudes.

Paternal inheritance of growth in fish pursuing alternative reproductive tactics

In species with indeterminate growth, age-related size variation of reproductive competitors within each sex is often high. This selects for divergence in reproductive tactics of same-sex competitors, particularly in males. Where alternative tactics are fixed for life, the causality of tactic choice is often unclear. In the African cichlid Lamprologus callipterus, large nest males collect and present empty snail shells to females that use these shells for egg deposition and brood care. Small dwarf males attempt to fertilize eggs by entering shells in which females are spawning. The bourgeois nest males exceed parasitic dwarf males in size by nearly two orders of magnitude, which is likely to result from greatly diverging growth patterns. Here, we ask whether growth patterns are heritable in this species, or whether and to which extent they are determined by environmental factors. Standardized breeding experiments using unrelated offspring and maternal half-sibs revealed highly divergent growth patterns of male young sired by nest or dwarf males, whereas the growth of female offspring of both male types did not differ. As expected, food had a significant modifying effect on growth, but neither the quantity of breeding substrate in the environment nor ambient temperature affected growth. None of the environmental factors tested influenced the choice of male life histories. We conclude that in L. callipterus growth rates of bourgeois and parasitic males are paternally inherited, and that male and female growth is phenotypically plastic to only a small degree.

Lake sediments as natural seismographs: A compiled record of Late Quaternary earthquakes in Central Switzerland and its implication for Alpine deformation

Central Switzerland lies tectonically in an intraplate area and recurrence rates of strong earthquakes exceed the time span covered by historic chronicles. However, many lakes are present in the area that act as natural seismographs: their continuous, datable and high-resolution sediment succession allows extension of the earthquake catalogue to pre-historic times. This study reviews and compiles available data sets and results from more than 10 years of lacustrine palaeoseismological research in lakes of northern and Central Switzerland. The concept of using lacustrine mass-movement event stratigraphy to identify palaeo-earthquakes is showcased by presenting new data and results from Lake Zurich. The Late Glacial to Holocene mass-movement units in this lake document a complex history of varying tectonic and environmental impacts. Results include sedimentary evidence of three major and three minor, simultaneously triggered basin-wide lateral slope failure events interpreted as the fingerprints of palaeoseismic activity. A refined earthquake catalogue, which includes results from previous lake studies, reveals a non-uniform temporal distribution of earthquakes in northern and Central Switzerland. A higher frequency of earthquakes in the Late Glacial and Late Holocene period documents two different phases of neotectonic activity; they are interpreted to be related to isostatic post-glacial rebound and relatively recent (re-)activation of seismogenic zones, respectively. Magnitudes and epicentre reconstructions for the largest identified earthquakes provide evidence for two possible earthquake sources: (i) a source area in the region of the Alpine or Sub-Alpine Front due to release of accumulated north-west/south-east compressional stress related to an active basal thrust beneath the Aar massif; and (ii) a source area beneath the Alpine foreland due to reactivation of deep-seated strike-slip faults. Such activity has been repeatedly observed instrumentally, for example, during the most recent magnitude 4.2 and 3.5 earthquakes of February 2012, near Zug. The combined lacustrine record from northern and Central Switzerland indicates that at least one of these potential sources has been capable of producing magnitude 6.2 to 6.7 events in the past.

Tumor Regression Grading of Gastrointestinal Carcinomas after Neoadjuvant Treatment

Multimodal therapy concepts have been successfully implemented in the treatment of locally advanced gastrointestinal malignancies. The effects of neoadjuvant chemo- or radiochemotherapy such as scarry fibrosis or resorptive changes and inflammation can be determined by histopathological investigation of the subsequent resection specimen. Tumor regression grading (TRG) systems which aim to categorize the amount of regressive changes after cytotoxic treatment mostly refer onto the amount of therapy induced fibrosis in relation to residual tumor or the estimated percentage of residual tumor in relation to the previous tumor site. Commonly used TRGs for upper gastrointestinal carcinomas are the Mandard grading and the Becker grading system, e.g., and for rectal cancer the Dworak or the Rödel grading system, or other systems which follow similar definitions. Namely for gastro-esophageal carcinomas these TRGs provide important prognostic information since complete or subtotal tumor regression has shown to be associated with better patient's outcome. The prognostic value of TRG may even exceed those of currently used staging systems (e.g., TNM staging) for tumors treated by neoadjuvant therapy. There have been some limitations described regarding interobserver variability especially in borderline cases, which may be improved by standardization of work up of resection specimen and better training of histopathologic determination of regressive changes. It is highly recommended that TRG should be implemented in every histopathological report of neoadjuvant treated gastrointestinal carcinomas. The aim of this review is to disclose the relevance of histomorphological TRG to accomplish an optimal therapy for patients with gastrointestinal carcinomas.

Deciphering the driving forces of erosion rates on millennial to million-year timescales in glacially impacted landscapes: An example from the Western Alps

In many regions, tectonic uplift is the main driver of erosion over million-year (Myr) timescales, but climate changes can markedly affect the link between tectonics and erosion, causing transient variations in erosion rates. Here we study the driving forces of millennial to Myr-scale erosion rates in the French Western Alps, as estimated from in situ produced cosmogenic 10Be and a newly developed approach integrating detrital and bedrock apatite fission-track thermochronology. Millennial erosion rates from 10Be analyses vary between ~0.27 and ~1.33 m/kyr, similar to rates measured in adjacent areas of the Alps. Significant positive correlations of millennial erosion rates with geomorphic measures, in particular with the LGM ice thickness, reveal a strong transient morphological and erosional perturbation caused by repeated Quaternary glaciations. The perturbation appears independent of Myr-scale uplift and erosion gradients, with the effect that millennial erosion rates exceed Myr-scale erosion rates only in the internal Alps where the latter are low (<0.4 km/Myr). These areas, moreover, exhibit channels that clearly plot above a general linear positive relation between Myr-scale erosion rates and normalized steepness index. Glacial erosion acts irrespective of rock uplift and thus not only leads to an overall increase in erosion rates but also regulates landscape morphology and erosion rates in regions with considerable spatial gradients in Myr-scale tectonic uplift. Our study demonstrates that climate change, e.g., through occurrence of major glaciations, can markedly perturb landscape morphology and related millennial erosion rate patterns, even in regions where Myr-scale erosion rates are dominantly controlled by tectonics.

Bias associated with detrital zircon geochronology and thermochronometry

Detrital studies that utilize zircon U–Pb geochronology and fission-track (FT) thermochronometry are subject to a range of potential sources of bias that should be properly evaluated and minimized. Some of them are common to any single-grain mineral analysis (e.g., variable bedrock mineral fertility, hydraulic sorting during transport, selective grain loss during sample processing), whereas others are intrinsic to zircon, and are related to radiation damage and age discordance. In this article, we quantify the impact of intrinsic bias on detrital studies thanks to the analysis of modern detritus shed from the European Alps, and illustrate the general implications on geological interpretations. We show that detrital zircon U–Pb age distributions based on statistically robust datasets are highly reproducible and representative of the parent bedrock ages in the catchment. Arbitrary or selective removal of discordant grain ages can be minimized by using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to identify an appropriate cutoff level. Loss of metamict (α-damaged) zircon has a minor impact on data representativeness, and is mainly controlled by regional metamorphism rather than by mechanical abrasion during river transport. Zircon FT grain-age distributions were found to have poor reproducibility, although age spectra are consistent with bedrock data. However, unlike the U–Pb datasets, U-rich zircon grains (> 1000 ppm) are systematically missed, and undatable grains may exceed 50%. We identify two major sources of distribution bias specific to zircon FT datasets: (i) sediment sources dominated by U-rich zircon grains are markedly underrepresented in the detrital record, because such grains often have uncountable high densities of fission tracks (“U concentration bias”); (ii) sediment sources that shed zircon grains with high levels of α-damage are underrepresented, because these grains are lost during chemical etching for FT revelation (“etching bias”). In the case of multimethod dating on the same grains (e.g., FT and U–Pb double dating), bias affecting detrital zircon FT dating propagates to the entire dataset. These effects may not impact on exhumation-rate studies that utilize the youngest grain ages (i.e., lag-time approach). However, they represent a limiting factor for conventional provenance studies, and generally preclude application of zircon FT dating to sediment budget calculations.

Energy harvesting through arterial wall deformation: design considerations for a magneto-hydrodynamic generator

As the complexity of active medical implants increases, the task of embedding a life-long power supply at the time of implantation becomes more challenging. A periodic renewal of the energy source is often required. Human energy harvesting is, therefore, seen as a possible remedy. In this paper, we present a novel idea to harvest energy from the pressure-driven deformation of an artery by the principle of magneto-hydrodynamics. The generator relies on a highly electrically conductive fluid accelerated perpendicularly to a magnetic field by means of an efficient lever arm mechanism. An artery with 10 mm inner diameter is chosen as a potential implantation site and its ability to drive the generator is established. Three analytical models are proposed to investigate the relevant design parameters and to determine the existence of an optimal configuration. The predicted output power reaches 65 μW according to the first two models and 135 μW according to the third model. It is found that the generator, designed as a circular structure encompassing the artery, should not exceed a total volume of 3 cm3.

Chapter Six – Individual Trait Variation and Diversity in Food Webs

In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in the ecological consequences of individual trait variation within populations. Given that individual variability arises from evolutionary dynamics, to fully understand eco-evolutionary feedback loops, we need to pay special attention to how standing trait variability affects ecological dynamics. There is mounting empirical evidence that intra-specific phenotypic variation can exceed species-level means, but theoretical models of multi-trophic species coexistence typically neglect individual-level trait variability. What is needed are multispecies datasets that are resolved at the individual level that can be used to discriminate among alternative models of resource selection and species coexistence in food webs. Here, using one the largest individual-based datasets of a food web compiled to date, along with an individual trait-based stochastic model that incorporates Approximate Bayesian computation methods, we document intra-population variation in the strength of prey selection by different classes or predator phenotypes which could potentially alter the diversity and coexistence patterns of food webs. In particular, we found that strongly connected individual predators preferentially consumed common prey, whereas weakly connected predators preferentially selected rare prey. Such patterns suggest that food web diversity may be governed by the distribution of predator connectivity and individual trait variation in prey selection. We discuss the consequences of intra-specific variation in prey selection to assess fitness differences among predator classes (or phenotypes) and track longer term food web patterns of coexistence accounting for several phenotypes within each prey and predator species.

The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae Eruption Signal Derived from Multiple Ice Core Records: Greatest Volcanic Sulfate Event of the Past 700 Years

We combined 33 ice core records, 13 from the Northern Hemisphere and 20 from the Southern Hemisphere, to determine the timing and magnitude of the great Kuwae eruption in the mid-15th century. We extracted volcanic deposition signals by applying a high-pass loess filter to the time series and examining peaks that exceed twice the 31 year running median absolute deviation. By accounting for the dating uncertainties associated with each record, these ice core records together reveal a large volcanogenic acid deposition event during 1453 - 1457 A. D. The results suggest only one major stratospheric injection from the Kuwae eruption and confirm previous findings that the Kuwae eruption took place in late 1452 or early 1453, which may serve as a reference to evaluate and improve the dating of ice core records. The average total sulfate deposition from the Kuwae eruption was 93 kg SO4/km(2) in Antarctica and 25 kg SO4/km(2) in Greenland. The deposition in Greenland was probably underestimated since it was the average value of only two northern Greenland sites with very low accumulation rates. After taking the spatial variation into consideration, the average Kuwae deposition in Greenland was estimated to be 45 kg SO4/km(2). By applying the same technique to the other major eruptions of the past 700 years our result suggests that the Kuwae eruption was the largest stratospheric sulfate event of that period, probably surpassing the total sulfate deposition of the Tambora eruption of 1815, which produced 59 kg SO4/km(2) in Antarctica and 50 kg SO4/km(2) in Greenland.