945 resultados para Estimator standard error and efficiency


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Climate-driven change represents the cumulative effect of global through local-scale conditions, and understanding their manifestation at local scales can empower local management. Change in the dominance of habitats is often the product of local nutrient pollution that occurs at relatively local scales (i.e. catchment scale), a critical scale of management at which global impacts will manifest. We tested whether forecasted global-scale change [elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and subsequent ocean acidification] and local stressors (elevated nutrients) can combine to accelerate the expansion of filamentous turfs at the expense of calcifying algae (kelp understorey). Our results not only support this model of future change, but also highlight the synergistic effects of future CO2 and nutrient concentrations on the abundance of turfs. These results suggest that global and local stressors need to be assessed in meaningful combinations so that the anticipated effects of climate change do not create the false impression that, however complex, climate change will produce smaller effects than reality. These findings empower local managers because they show that policies of reducing local stressors (e.g. nutrient pollution) can reduce the effects of global stressors not under their governance (e.g. ocean acidification). The connection between research and government policy provides an example whereby knowledge (and decision making) across local through global scales provides solutions to some of the most vexing challenges for attaining social goals of sustainability, biological conservation and economic development.

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Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations threaten coral reefs globally by causing ocean acidification (OA) and warming. Yet, the combined effects of elevated pCO2 and temperature on coral physiology and resilience remain poorly understood. While coral calcification and energy reserves are important health indicators, no studies to date have measured energy reserve pools (i.e., lipid, protein, and carbohydrate) together with calcification under OA conditions under different temperature scenarios. Four coral species, Acropora millepora, Montipora monasteriata, Pocillopora damicornis, Turbinaria reniformis, were reared under a total of six conditions for 3.5 weeks, representing three pCO2 levels (382, 607, 741 µatm), and two temperature regimes (26.5, 29.0°C) within each pCO2 level. After one month under experimental conditions, only A. millepora decreased calcification (-53%) in response to seawater pCO2 expected by the end of this century, whereas the other three species maintained calcification rates even when both pCO2 and temperature were elevated. Coral energy reserves showed mixed responses to elevated pCO2 and temperature, and were either unaffected or displayed nonlinear responses with both the lowest and highest concentrations often observed at the mid-pCO2 level of 607 µatm. Biweekly feeding may have helped corals maintain calcification rates and energy reserves under these conditions. Temperature often modulated the response of many aspects of coral physiology to OA, and both mitigated and worsened pCO2 effects. This demonstrates for the first time that coral energy reserves are generally not metabolized to sustain calcification under OA, which has important implications for coral health and bleaching resilience in a high-CO2 world. Overall, these findings suggest that some corals could be more resistant to simultaneously warming and acidifying oceans than previously expected.

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Oceanic dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is the enzymatic cleavage product of the algal metabolite dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) and is the most abundant form of sulfur released into the atmosphere. To investigate the effects of two emerging environmental threats (ocean acidification and warming) on marine DMS production, we performed a large-scale perturbation experiment in a coastal environment. At both ambient temperature and 2 °C warmer, an increase in partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in seawater (160-830 ppmv pCO2) favored the growth of large diatoms, which outcompeted other phytoplankton species in a natural phytoplankton assemblage and reduced the growth rate of smaller, DMSP-rich phototrophic dinoflagellates. This decreased the grazing rate of heterotrophic dinoflagellates (ubiquitous micrograzers), resulting in reduced DMS production via grazing activity. Both the magnitude and sign of the effect of pCO2 on possible future oceanic DMS production were strongly linked to pCO2-induced alterations to the phytoplankton community and the cellular DMSP content of the dominant species and its association with micrograzers.

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Cold-water corals are amongst the most three-dimensionally complex deep-sea habitats known and are associated with high local biodiversity. Despite their importance as ecosystem engineers, little is known about how these organisms will respond to projected ocean acidification. Since preindustrial times, average ocean pH has already decreased from 8.2 to ~ 8.1. Predicted CO2 emissions will decrease this by up to another 0.3 pH units by the end of the century. This decrease in pH may have a wide range of impacts upon marine life, and in particular upon calcifiers such as cold-water corals. Lophelia pertusa is the most widespread cold-water coral (CWC) species, frequently found in the North Atlantic. Data here relate to a short term data set (21 days) on metabolism and net calcification rates of freshly collected L. pertusa from Mingulay Reef Complex, Scotland. These data from freshly collected L. pertusa from the Mingulay Reef Complex will help define the impact of ocean acidification upon the growth, physiology and structural integrity of this key reef framework forming species.

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The world's oceans are slowly becoming more acidic. In the last 150 yr, the pH of the oceans has dropped by ~0.1 units, which is equivalent to a 25% increase in acidity. Modelling predicts the pH of the oceans to fall by 0.2 to 0.4 units by the year 2100. These changes will have significant effects on marine organisms, especially those with calcareous skeletons such as echinoderms. Little is known about the possible long-term impact of predicted pH changes on marine invertebrate larval development. Here we predict the consequences of increased CO2 (corresponding to pH drops of 0.2 and 0.4 units) on the larval development of the brittlestar Ophiothrix fragilis, which is a keystone species occurring in high densities and stable populations throughout the shelf seas of northwestern Europe (eastern Atlantic). Acidification by 0.2 units induced 100% larval mortality within 8 d while control larvae showed 70% survival over the same period. Exposure to low pH also resulted in a temporal decrease in larval size as well as abnormal development and skeletogenesis (abnormalities, asymmetry, altered skeletal proportions). If oceans continue to acidify as expected, ecosystems of the Atlantic dominated by this keystone species will be seriously threatened with major changes in many key benthic and pelagic ecosystems. Thus, it may be useful to monitor O. fragilis populations and initiate conservation if needed.

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A record of deep-sea calcite saturation (D[CO3**-2]), derived from X-ray computed tomography-based foraminifer dissolution index, XDX, was constructed for the past 150 ka for a core from the deep (4157 m) tropical western Indian Ocean. G. sacculifer and N. dutertrei recorded a similar dissolution history, consistent with the process of calcite compensation. Peaks in calcite saturation (~15 µmol/kg higher than the present-day value) occurred during deglaciations and early in MIS 3. Dissolution maxima coincided with transitions to colder stages. The mass record of G. sacculifer better indicated preservation than did that of N. dutertrei or G. ruber. Dissolution-corrected Mg/Ca-derived SST records, like other SST records from marginal Indian Ocean sites, showed coolest temperatures of the last 150 ka in early MIS 3, when mixed layer temperatures were ~4°C lower than present SST. Temperatures recorded by N. dutertrei showed the thermocline to be ~4°C colder in MIS 3 compared to the Holocene (8 ka B.P.).

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Ocean acidification, which like global warming is an outcome of anthropogenic CO2emissions, severely impacts marine calcifying organisms, especially those living in coral reef ecosystems. However, knowledge about the responses of reef calcifiers to ocean acidification is quite limited, although coral responses are known to be generally negative. In a culture experiment with two algal symbiont-bearing, reef-dwelling foraminifers, Amphisorus kudakajimensis and Calcarina gaudichaudii, in seawater under five different pCO2 conditions, 245, 375, 588, 763 and 907 µatm, maintained with a precise pCO2-controlling technique, net calcification of A. kudakajimensis was reduced under higher pCO2, whereas calcification of C. gaudichaudii generally increased with increased pCO2. In another culture experiment conducted in seawater in which bicarbonate ion concentrations were varied under a constant carbonate ion concentration, calcification was not significantly different between treatments in Amphisorus hemprichii, a species closely related to A. kudakajimensis, or in C. gaudichaudii. From these results, we concluded that carbonate ion and CO2 were the carbonate species that most affected growth ofAmphisorus and Calcarina, respectively. The opposite responses of these two foraminifer genera probably reflect different sensitivities to these carbonate species, which may be due to their different symbiotic algae.

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The majority of benthic marine invertebrates have a complex life cycle, during which the pelagic larvae select a suitable substrate, attach to it, and then metamorphose into benthic adults. Anthropogenic ocean acidification (OA) is postulated to affect larval metamorphic success through an altered protein expression pattern (proteome structure) and post-translational modifications. To test this hypothesis, larvae of an economically and ecologically important barnacle species Balanus amphitrite, were cultured from nauplius to the cyprid stage in the present (control) and in the projected elevated concentrations of CO2 for the year 2100 (the OA treatment). Cyprid response to OA was analyzed at the total proteome level as well as two protein post-translational modification (phosphorylation and glycosylation) levels using a 2-DE based proteomic approach. The cyprid proteome showed OA-driven changes. Proteins that were differentially up or down regulated by OA come from three major groups, namely those related to energy-metabolism, respiration, and molecular chaperones, illustrating a potential strategy that the barnacle larvae may employ to tolerate OA stress. The differentially expressed proteins were tentatively identified as OA-responsive, effectively creating unique protein expression signatures for OA scenario of 2100. This study showed the promise of using a sentinel and non-model species to examine the impact of OA at the proteome level.

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Changes in olfactory-mediated behaviour caused by elevated CO2 levels in the ocean could affect recruitment to reef fish populations because larval fish become more vulnerable to predation. However, it is currently unclear how elevated CO2 will impact the other key part of the predator-prey interaction - the predators. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 and reduced pH on olfactory preferences, activity levels and feeding behaviour of a common coral reef meso-predator, the brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus). Predators were exposed to either current-day CO2 levels or one of two elevated CO2 levels (~600 µatm or ~950 µatm) that may occur by 2100 according to climate change predictions. Exposure to elevated CO2 and reduced pH caused a shift from preference to avoidance of the smell of injured prey, with CO2treated predators spending approximately 20% less time in a water stream containing prey odour compared with controls. Furthermore, activity levels of fish was higher in the high CO2 treatment and feeding activity was lower for fish in the mid CO2treatment; indicating that future conditions may potentially reduce the ability of the fish to respond rapidly to fluctuations in food availability. Elevated activity levels of predators in the high CO2 treatment, however, may compensate for reduced olfactory ability, as greater movement facilitated visual detection of food. Our findings show that, at least for the species tested to date, both parties in the predator-prey relationship may be affected by ocean acidification. Although impairment of olfactory-mediated behaviour of predators might reduce the risk of predation for larval fishes, the magnitude of the observed effects of elevated CO2 acidification appear to be more dramatic for prey compared to predators. Thus, it is unlikely that the altered behaviour of predators is sufficient to fully compensate for the effects of ocean acidification on prey mortality.

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Rising atmospheric CO2 often triggers the production of plant phenolics, including many that serve as herbivore deterrents, digestion reducers, antimicrobials, or ultraviolet sunscreens. Such responses are predicted by popular models of plant defense, especially resource availability models which link carbon availability to phenolic biosynthesis. CO2 availability is also increasing in the oceans, where anthropogenic emissions cause ocean acidification, decreasing seawater pH and shifting the carbonate system towards further CO2 enrichment. Such conditions tend to increase seagrass productivity but may also increase rates of grazing on these marine plants. Here we show that high CO2 / low pH conditions of OA decrease, rather than increase, concentrations of phenolic protective substances in seagrasses and eurysaline marine plants. We observed a loss of simple and polymeric phenolics in the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa near a volcanic CO2 vent on the Island of Vulcano, Italy, where pH values decreased from 8.1 to 7.3 and pCO2 concentrations increased ten-fold. We observed similar responses in two estuarine species, Ruppia maritima and Potamogeton perfoliatus, in in situ Free-Ocean-Carbon-Enrichment experiments conducted in tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, USA. These responses are strikingly different than those exhibited by terrestrial plants. The loss of phenolic substances may explain the higher-than-usual rates of grazing observed near undersea CO2 vents and suggests that ocean acidification may alter coastal carbon fluxes by affecting rates of decomposition, grazing, and disease. Our observations temper recent predictions that seagrasses would necessarily be "winners" in a high CO2 world.

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Phytoplankton are the basis of marine food webs, and affect biogeochemical cycles. As CO2 levels increase, shifts in the frequencies and physiology of ecotypes within phytoplankton groups will affect their nutritional value and biogeochemical function. However, studies so far are based on a few representative genotypes from key species. Here, we measure changes in cellular function and growth rate at atmospheric CO2 concentrations predicted for the year 2100 in 16 ecotypes of the marine picoplankton Ostreococcus. We find that variation in plastic responses among ecotypes is on par with published between-genera variation, so the responses of one or a few ecotypes cannot estimate changes to the physiology or composition of a species under CO2 enrichment. We show that ecotypes best at taking advantage of CO2 enrichment by changing their photosynthesis rates most should increase in relative fitness, and so in frequency in a high-CO2 environment. Finally, information on sampling location, and not phylogenetic relatedness, is a good predictor of ecotypes likely to increase in frequency in this system.

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Climate change is expected to bring about alterations in the marine physical and chemical environment that will induce changes in the concentration of dissolved CO2 and in nutrient availability. These in turn are expected to affect the physiological performance of phytoplankton. In order to learn how phytoplankton respond to the predicted scenario of increased CO2 and decreased nitrogen in the surface mixed layer, we investigated the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum as a model organism. The cells were cultured in both low CO2 (390 µatm) and high CO2 (1000 µatm) conditions at limiting (10 µmol/L) or enriched (110 µmol/L) nitrate concentrations. Our study shows that nitrogen limitation resulted in significant decreases in cell size, pigmentation, growth rate and effective quantum yield of Phaeodactylum tricornutum, but these parameters were not affected by enhanced dissolved CO2 and lowered pH. However, increased CO2 concentration induced higher rETRmax and higher dark respiration rates and decreased the CO2 or dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) affinity for electron transfer (shown by higher values for K1/2 DIC or K1/2 CO2). Furthermore, the elemental stoichiometry (carbon to nitrogen ratio) was raised under high CO2 conditions in both nitrogen limited and nitrogen replete conditions, with the ratio in the high CO2 and low nitrate grown cells being higher by 45% compared to that in the low CO2 and nitrate replete grown ones. Our results suggest that while nitrogen limitation had a greater effect than ocean acidification, the combined effects of both factors could act synergistically to affect marine diatoms and related biogeochemical cycles in future oceans.

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Predicted future CO2 levels have been found to alter sensory responses and behaviour of marine fishes. Changes include increased boldness and activity, loss of behavioural lateralization, altered auditory preferences and impaired olfactory function. Impaired olfactory function makes larval fish attracted to odours they normally avoid, including ones from predators and unfavourable habitats. These behavioural alterations have significant effects on mortality that may have far-reaching implications for population replenishment, community structure and ecosystem function. However, the underlying mechanism linking high CO2 to these diverse responses has been unknown. Here we show that abnormal olfactory preferences and loss of behavioural lateralization exhibited by two species of larval coral reef fish exposed to high CO2 can be rapidly and effectively reversed by treatment with an antagonist of the GABA-A receptor. GABA-A is a major neurotransmitter receptor in the vertebrate brain. Thus, our results indicate that high CO2 interferes with neurotransmitter function, a hitherto unrecognized threat to marine populations and ecosystems. Given the ubiquity and conserved function of GABA-A receptors, we predict that rising CO2 levels could cause sensory and behavioural impairment in a wide range of marine species, especially those that tightly control their acid-base balance through regulatory changes in HCO3 and Cl levels.

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Nutrient addition experiments were performed during the austral summer in the Amundsen Sea (Southern Ocean) to investigate the availability of organically bound iron (Fe) to the phytoplankton communities, as well as assess their response to Fe amendment. Changes in autotrophic biomass, pigment concentration, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem II, and nutrient concentration were recorded in response to the addition of dissolved free Fe (DFe) and Fe bound to different model ligands. Analysis of pigment concentrations indicated that the autotrophic community was dominated by the prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis antarctica throughout most of the Amundsen Sea, although diatoms dominated in two experiments conducted in the marginal ice zone. Few significant differences in bulk community biomass (particulate organic carbon, nitrogen, and chlorophyll a) were observed, relative to the controls, in treatments with Fe added alone or bound to the ligand phytic acid. In contrast, when Fe was bound to the ligand desferrioxamine B (DFB), decreases in the bulk biomass indices were observed. The concentration of the diatom accessory pigment fucoxanthin showed little response to Fe additions, while the concentration of the P. antarctica-specific pigment, 19'-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin (19'-hex), decreased when Fe was added alone or bound to the model ligands. Lastly, differences in the nitrate:phosphate (NO3- :PO4**3-) utilization ratio were observed between the Fe-amended treatments, with Fe bound to DFB resulting in the lowest NO3- :PO4**3- uptake ratios (~ 10) and the remaining Fe treatments having higher NO3- :PO4**3- uptake ratios (~ 17). The data are discussed with respect to glacial inputs of Fe in the Amundsen Sea and the bioavailability of Fe. We suggest that the previously observed high NO3- :PO4**3- utilization ratio of P. antarctica is a consequence of its production of dissolved organic matter that acts as ligands and increases the bioavailability of Fe, thereby stimulating the uptake of NO3-.