How Social is European Integration? Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 18/2007

The social dimension of the internal market or of the EU more generally has recently been under quite fundamental attack. Calls for 'Europe' to be 'more social' have been heard repeatedly. Witness the polarized debates about the services directive, the anxieties concerning several ECJ cases about what limitations of the free movement of workers (posted or not) are justified or the assertion of a 'neo-liberal agenda' in Brussels disregarding or eroding the social dimension. This BEEP Briefing paper takes an analytical approach to these issues and to the possible 'framing' involved. Such an analysis reveals a very different picture than the negative framing in such debates has it: there is nothing particular 'a-social' about the internal market or the EU at large. This overall conclusion is reached following five steps. First, several 'preliminaries' of the social dimension have to be kept in mind (including the two-tier regulatory & expenditure structure of what is too loosely called 'social Europe' ) and this is only too rarely done or at best in partial, hence misleading, ways. Second, the social acquis at EU and Member States' levels is spelled out, broken down into four aspects (social spending; labour market regulation; industrial relations; free movements & establishment). Assessing the EU acquis in the light of the two levels of powers shows clearly that it is the combination of the two levels which matters. Member States and e.g. labour unions do not want the EU level to become deeply involved ( with some exceptions) and the actual impact of free movement and establishment is throttled by far-reaching host-country control and the requirement of a 'high level of social protection' in the treaty. Third, six anxieties about the social dimension of the internal market are discussed and few arguments are found which are attributable to the EU or its weakening social dimension. Fourth, another six anxieties are discussed emerging from the socio-economic context of the social dimension of the EU at large. The analysis demonstrates that, even if these anxieties ought to be taken serious, the EU is hardly or not the culprit. Fifth, all this is complemented by a number of other facts or arguments strengthening the case that the EU social dimension is fine.

Russia and Turkey - What does their partnership mean for the EU? EPC Policy Brief, 13 February 2015

Russia and Turkey have, over the past two decades, developed a very constructive relationship across a wide variety of policy areas. Imperial rivals during much of the Cold War, both countries have since then found common interests in matters of energy, trade and even defence. Besides their growing interdependence, it is hard not to notice the similarities between the two leaders of these countries, especially when it comes to the conspiracy mind-set of blaming dissent at home on foreign meddling. But does this mean that Turkey is fundamentally realigning its foreign policy strategy, away from the EU and towards Russia? And is the EU facing the emergence of an “axis of the excluded”? Not so according to Dimitar Bechev. In this Policy Brief, he argues that the ties between Russia and Turkey are driven by pragmatism and realpolitik. Contentious issues – such as the war in Syria - may be insulated from areas of overlapping interest, but deeper examination shows the glue holding the two countries together – their energy interdependence – is slowly weakening. Bechev believes the EU should take advantage of this divergence and try to (re-)anchor Turkey to its own initiatives and policies.

Citizenship in the discourse of Egyptian political parties. EUSpring Working Paper No. 6, June 2015 [also Citizenship Report no. 3]

The concept of citizenship is one of the most complicated in political and social sciences. Its long process of historical development makes dealing with it particularly complicated. Citizenship is by nature a multi-dimensional concept: there is a legal citizenship, referring first to the equal legal status of individuals, for instance the equality between men and women. Legal citizenship also refers to a political dimension, the right to start and/or join political parties, or political participation more broadly. Thirdly, it has a religious dimension relating to the right of all religious groups to equally and freely practice their religious customs and rituals. Finally, legal citizenship possesses a socio-economic dimension related to the non-marginalisation of different social categories, for instance women. All of these dimensions, far from being purely objects of legal texts and codifications, are emerging as an arena of political struggle within the Egyptian society. Citizenship as a concept has its roots in European history and, more specifically, the emergence of the nation state in Europe and the ensuing economic and social developments in these societies. These social developments and the rise of the nation state have worked in parallel, fostering the notion of an individual citizen bestowed with rights and obligations. This gradual interaction was very different from what happened in the context of the Arab world. The emerging of the nation state in Egypt was an outcome of modernisation efforts from the top-down; it coercively redesigned the social structure, by eliminating or weakening some social classes in favour of others. These efforts have had an impact on the state-society relation at least in two respects. First, on the overlapping relation between some social classes and the state, and second, on the ability of some social groups to self-organise, define and raise their demands. This study identifies how different political parties in Egypt envision the multi-dimensional concept of citizenship. We focus on the following elements: Nature of the state (identity, nature of the regime) Liberties and rights (election laws, political party laws, etc.) Right to gather and organise (syndicates, associations, etc.) Freedom of expression and speech (right to protest, sit in, strike, etc.) Public and individual liberties (freedom of belief, personal issues, etc.) Rights of marginalised groups (women, minorities, etc.)

China’s slowdown: When the dragon catches the flu, Europe sneezes. CEPS Commentary, 25 September 2015

Notwithstanding the erratic stock market responses around the world, this CEPS Commentary argues that while a slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy may not be good news for Europe, its effects will not be as bad as headlines would have us believe. In the short term, it finds that the biggest risks from the Chinese slowdown may be political, stemming from a weakening of the Renminbi, either from actions taken by China’s central bank and/or from large capital outflows.

The End of German Hegemony. CEPS Commentary, 16 October 2015

Without anyone quite noticing, Europe’s internal balance of power has been shifting. As Daniel Gros observes in this commentary, Germany’s dominant position, which has seemed absolute since the 2008 financial crisis, is gradually weakening – with far-reaching implications for the European Union.

How to get out of the crisis without reforms? The Belarusian authorities confront growing economic problems. OSW Commentary NUMBER 202/21.03.2016

2015 saw a drop in Belarus’s GDP for the first time in almost 20 years, which is primarily the result of a significant reduction in levels of production and export. As a consequence, there was also a serious depletion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as a progressive weakening of the Belarusian rouble. The macroeconomic figures from January and February 2016 show that these trends are not only continuing, but they are also becoming even more severe, which confirms that Belarus now finds itself in a prolonged economic crisis. On one hand, the reason for this state of affairs is the protracted economic recession in Russia, which is Belarus’s main economic partner, together with the drastic global decline in prices for fuel, which is a key Belarusian export. On the other hand, meanwhile, an equally important reason for the current crisis is the failure of the Belarusian economic model. President Aleksandr Lukashenko, out of fear that his authoritarian system of government will be dismantled and that public discontent will rise, has categorically rejected the proposals for even partial reforms put forward by some of his entourage, who are aware of the need for the immediate transformation of the country’s anachronistic and very costly economic model, based as it still is on quasi-Soviet management policies.

On the initiation of boudinage and folding instabilities in layered elasto-visco-plastic solids - Insights from natural microstructures and numerical simulations

The present understanding of the initiation of boudinage and folding structures is based on viscosity contrasts and stress exponents, considering an intrinsically unstable state of the layer. The criterion of localization is believed to be prescribed by geometry-material interactions, which are often encountered in natural structures. An alternative localization phenomenon has been established for ductile materials, in which instability emerges for critical material parameters and loading rates from homogeneous conditions. In this thesis, conditions are sought under which this type of instability prevails and whether localization in geological materials necessarily requires a trigger by geometric imperfections. The relevance of critical deformation conditions, material parameters and the spatial configuration of instabilities are discussed in a geological context. In order to analyze boudinage geometries, a numerical eigenmode analysis is introduced. This method allows determining natural frequencies and wavelengths of a structure and inducing perturbations on these frequencies. In the subsequent coupled thermo-mechanical simulations, using a grain size evolution and end-member flow laws, localization emerges when material softening through grain size sensitive viscous creep sets in. Pinch-and-swell structures evolve along slip lines through a positive feedback between the matrix response and material bifurcations inside the layer, independent from the mesh-discretization length scale. Since boudinage and folding are considered to express the same general instability, both structures should arise independently of the sign of the loading conditions and for identical material parameters. To this end, the link between material to energy instabilities is approached by means of bifurcation analyses of the field equations and finite element simulations of the coupled system of equations. Boudinage and folding structures develop at the same critical energy threshold, where dissipative work by temperature-sensitive creep overcomes the diffusive capacity of the layer. This finding provides basis for a unified theory for strain localization in layered ductile materials. The numerical simulations are compared to natural pinch-and-swell microstructures, tracing the adaption of grain sizes, textures and creep mechanisms in calcite veins. The switch from dislocation to diffusion creep relates to strain-rate weakening, which is induced by dissipated heat from grain size reduction, and marks the onset of continuous necking. The time-dependent sequence uncovers multiple steady states at different time intervals. Microstructurally and mechanically stable conditions are finally expressed in the pinch-and-swell end members. The major outcome of this study is that boudinage and folding can be described as the same coupled energy-mechanical bifurcation, or as one critical energy attractor. This finding allows the derivation of critical deformation conditions and fundamental material parameters directly from localized structures in the field.

Who Is Influential and Why? The Determinants of Reputational Power

Power is one of the most fundamental concepts in political science, and it is a crucial aspect of decision-making structures. The distribution of power between political actors and coalitions of actors informs us about who is actually able to influence decision-making processes. It is thus no surprise that power is a centerpiece of our assessment of political decision-making in Switzerland. In line with the main argument of this book, Chapter 3 has uncovered important changes in decision-making structures, which resulted in a rebalancing of power between governing parties, interest groups and state executive actors. Conjecturing about the reasons that may account for these changes, we pointed to factors of an organizational and institutional nature. For example, we put forward the decline of pre-parliamentary procedures oriented towards corporatist intermediation as a possible explanation for the weakening of interest groups. More generally, in several chapters it has been suggested that there is a relationship between the institutional design of a decision-making process, the related importance of decision-making phases and an actor's participation in these phases on the one hand, and the power of actors (and coalitions of actors) on the other. In addition, the analyses carried out in Chapters 2 to 5 draw our attention to the differences in power structure across decision-making processes or types of processes.

Developmental control of H+/amino acid permease gene expression during seed development of Arabidopsis

Long distance transport of amino acids is mediated by several families of differentially expressed amino acid transporters. The two genes AAP1 and AAP2 encode broad specificity H+-amino acid co-transporters and are expressed to high levels in siliques of Arabidopsis, indicating a potential role in supplying the seeds with organic nitrogen. The expression of both genes is developmentally controlled and is strongly induced in siliques at heart stage of embryogenesis, shortly before induction of storage protein genes. Histochemical analysis of transgenic plants expressing promoter-GUS fusions shows that the genes have non-overlapping expression patterns in siliques. AAP1 is expressed in the endosperm and the cotyledons whereas AAP2 is expressed in the vascular strands of siliques and in funiculi. The endosperm expression of AAP1 during early stages of seed development indicates that the endosperm serves as a transient storage tissue for organic nitrogen. Amino acids are transported in both xylem and phloem but during seed filling are imported only via the phloem. AAP2, which is expressed in the phloem of stems and in the veins supplying seeds, may function in uptake of amino acids assimilated in the green silique tissue, in the retrieval of amino acids leaking passively out of the phloem and in xylem-to-phloem transfer along the path. The promoters provide excellent tools to study developmental, hormonal and metabolic control of nitrogen nutrition during development and may help to manipulate the timing and composition of amino acid import into seeds.

Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects

The eruption of Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 had substantial effects on global climate and led to the ‘Year Without a Summer’ of 1816 in Europe and North America. Although a tragic event — tens of thousands of people lost their lives — the eruption also was an ‘experiment of nature’ from which science has learned until today. The aim of this study is to summarize our current understanding of the Tambora eruption and its effects on climate as expressed in early instrumental observations, climate proxies and geological evidence, climate reconstructions, and model simulations. Progress has been made with respect to our understanding of the eruption process and estimated amount of SO2 injected into the atmosphere, although large uncertainties still exist with respect to altitude and hemispheric distribution of Tambora aerosols. With respect to climate effects, the global and Northern Hemispheric cooling are well constrained by proxies whereas there is no strong signal in Southern Hemisphere proxies. Newly recovered early instrumental information for Western Europe and parts of North America, regions with particularly strong climate effects, allow Tambora’s effect on the weather systems to be addressed. Climate models respond to prescribed Tambora-like forcing with a strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, global cooling and a slowdown of the water cycle, weakening of the summer monsoon circulations, a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and a decrease of atmospheric CO₂. Combining observations, climate proxies, and model simulations for the case of Tambora, a better understanding of climate processes has emerged.

(Table 1) Ice floe size and other characteristics during aerial observations in Prydz Bay, Antarctica

On the basis of aerial photographs of sea ice floes in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of Prydz Bay acquired from December 2004 to February 2005 during the 21st Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition, image processing techniques are employed to extract some geometric parameters of floes from two merged transects covering the whole MIZ. Variations of these parameters with the distance into the MIZ are then obtained. Different parameters of floe size, namely area, perimeter, and mean caliper diameter (MCD), follow three similar stages of increasing, flat and increasing again, with distance from the open ocean. Floe shape parameters (roundness and the ratio of perimeter to MCD), however, have less significant variations than that of floe size. Then, to modify the deviation of the cumulative floe size distribution from the ideal power law, an upper truncated power-law function and a Weibull function are used, and four calculated parameters of the above functions are found to be important descriptors of the evolution of floe size distribution in the MIZ. Among them, Lr of the upper truncated power-law function indicates the upper limit of floe size and roughly equals the maximum floe size in each square sample area. L0 in the Weibull distribution shows an increasing proportion of larger floes in squares farther from the open ocean and roughly equals the mean floe size. D in the upper truncated power-law function is closely associated with the degree of confinement during ice breakup. Its decrease with the distance into MIZ indicates the weakening of confinement conditions on floes owing to wave attenuation. The gamma of the Weibull distribution characterizes the degree of homogeneity in a data set. It also decreases with distance into MIZ, implying that floe size distributes increase in range. Finally, a statistical test on floe size is performed to divide the whole MIZ into three distinct zones made up of floes of quite different characteristics. This zonal structure of floe size also agrees well with the trends of floe shape and floe size distribution, and is believed to be a straightforward result of wave-ice interaction in the MIZ.

Pollen abundance in Late Quaternary sediment cores off West Africa

The pollen record of three marine late Quaternary cores off Senegal shows a juxtaposition of Mediterranean, Northern Saharan, Central Saharan elements, which are considered transported by the trade winds from a winter-rainfall area, and Sahelian, Soudanese, Soudano-Guinean elements, considered transported both by winds and mostly by the Senegal River, and coming from the monsoonal, summer tropical rainfall area of southern West Africa. Littoral vegetation is either the edaphically dry and saline Chenopodiaceae from sebkhas at the time of the main regression, or the warm tropical humid mangrove with Rhizophora during the humid optimum period. Four stratigraphic zones reflect, from basis to top: Zone 4. A semi-arid period with a balanced pollen input. Zone 3. A very arid period with the disappearance of monsoonal pollen, probably from the disappearance of the Senegal River, a very saline littoral plain with Chenopodiaceae, a larger input of northern Saharan pollen from intensified trade winds. Zone 2. A quite humid period, much more so than today, very suddenly established, with a northward extension of the monsoonal areas, a rich littoral mangrove, and weakening of the trade winds. Zone l. A slow and steady evolution toward the present semi-humid conditions with regression of the mangrove, and of the monsoonal areas toward the south. Tentative datations and correlations with the Tchad area suggested: zone 4: 22,500 to 19,000 years BP; zone 3: 19,000 to 12,500 years BP; zone 2: 12,500 to 5,500 years BP; zone 1: 5,500 years BP to top of core. Dinoflagellate cysts display a tropical assemblage with mostly estuarine neritic elements and also a weak oceanic component, mostly in the lower slope core 47. Cosmopolitan taxa dominate the assemblage and only a few species point to more specialized environments. Quantitative variations of the assemblage are the basis of stratigraphy which is not similar to the pollen stratigraphy, and an inshore-outshore gradient has to be taken into account to correlate the three cores.

Sedimentology and geochemistry of ODP Site 184-1144

We analyzed sediment from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1144 in the northern South China Sea to examine the weathering response of SE Asia to the strengthening of the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) since 14 ka. Our high-resolution record highlights the decoupling between continental chemical weathering, physical erosion and summer monsoon intensity. Mass accumulation rates, Ti/Ca, K/Rb, hematite/goethite and 87Sr/86Sr show sharp excursions from 11 to 8 ka, peaking at 10 ka. Clay minerals show a shorter-lived response with a higher kaolinite/(illite + chlorite) ratio at 10.7-9.5 ka. However, not all proxies show a clear response to environmental changes. Magnetic susceptibility rises sharply between 12 and 11 ka. Grain-size becomes finer from 14 to 10 ka and then coarsens until ~7 ka, but is probably controlled by bottom current flow and sealevel. Sr and Nd isotopes show that material is dominantly eroded from Taiwan with a lesser flux from Luzon, while clay mineralogy suggests that the primary sources during the Early Holocene were reworked via the shelf in the Taiwan Strait, rather than directly from Taiwan. Erosion was enhanced during monsoon strengthening and caused reworking of chemically weathered Pleistocene sediment largely from the now flooded Taiwan Strait, which was transgressed by ~8 ka, cutting off supply to the deep-water slope. None of the proxies shows an erosional response lasting until ~6 ka, when speleothem oxygen isotope records indicate the start of monsoon weakening. Although more weathered sediments were deposited from 11 to 8 ka when the monsoon was strong these are reworked and represent more weathering during the last glacial maximum (LGM) when the summer monsoon was weaker but the shelves were exposed.

Benthic foraminiferal assemblages and epifaunal isotope record of the Agulhas Plateau

Benthic foraminiferal assemblages and the carbon isotope composition of the epifaunal benthic foraminifera Epistominella exigua and Fontbotia wuellerstorfi have been investigated along core MD02-2589 located at the southern Agulhas Plateau (41°26.03'S, 25°15.30'E, 2660 m water depth). This study aims to evaluate changes in the benthic paleoenvironment and its influence on benthic d13C with a notable focus on E. exigua, a species associated with phytodetritus deposits and poorly studied in isotope paleoceanographic reconstructions. The benthic foraminiferal assemblages (>63 µm) show large fluctuations in species composition suggesting significant changes in the pattern of ocean surface productivity conceivably related to migrations of the Subtropical Convergence (STC) and Subantarctic Front (SAF). Low to moderate seasonality and relatively higher food supply to the seafloor are indicated during glacial marine isotope stages (MIS) 6, 4, and 2 and during MIS 3, probably associated with the northward migration of the SAF and confluence with the more stationary STC above the southern flank of the Agulhas Plateau. The lowest organic carbon supply to the seafloor is indicated from late MIS 5b to MIS 4 as a consequence of increased influence of the Agulhas Front (AF) and/or weakening of the influence of the STC over the region. Episodic delivery of fresh organic matter, similar to modern conditions at the core location, is indicated during MIS 5c-MIS 5e and at Termination I. Comparison of this paleoenvironmental information with the paired d13C records of E. exigua and F. wuellerstorfi suggests that organic carbon offsets d13C of E. exigua from ambient bottom water d13CDIC, while its d13C amplitude, on glacial-interglacial timescales, does not seem affected by changes of organic carbon supply to the seafloor. This suggests that this species calcifies preferentially during the short time span of the year when productivity peaks and phytodetritus is delivered to the seafloor. Therefore E. exigua, while offset from d13CDIC, potentially more faithfully records the amplitude of ambient bottom water d13CDIC changes than F. wuellerstorfi, notably in settings such as the Southern Ocean that experienced substantial changes through time in the organic carbon supply to the seafloor.

Stable oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data of Globigerinoides ruber white, water stable oxygen isotope data, SST and MAT records of sediment core GeoB6211-2

During Termination 1, millennial-scale weakening events of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) supposedly produced major changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the western South Atlantic, and in mean air temperatures (MATs) over southeastern South America. It has been suggested, for instance, that the Brazil Current (BC) would strengthen (weaken) and the North Brazil Current (NBC) would weaken (strengthen) during slowdown (speed-up) events of the AMOC. This anti-phase pattern was claimed to be a necessary response to the decreased North Atlantic heat piracy during periods of weak AMOC. However, the thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent is so far largely unknown. Here we address this issue, presenting high-temporal-resolution SST and MAT records from the BC and southeastern South America, respectively. We identify a warming in the western South Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which is followed first by a drop and then by increasing temperatures during the Bølling-Allerød, in phase with an existing SST record from the NBC. Additionally, a similar SST evolution is shown by a southernmost eastern South Atlantic record, suggesting a South Atlantic-wide pattern in SST evolution during most of Termination 1. Over southeastern South America, our MAT record shows a two-step increase during Termination 1, synchronous with atmospheric CO2 rise (i.e., during the second half of HS1 and during the Younger Dryas), and lagging abrupt SST changes by several thousand years. This delay corroborates the notion that the long duration of HS1 was fundamental in driving the Earth out of the last glacial.