Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

A theory of constraints service systems improvement method: Case of the airline turnaround problem

This dissertation develops a process improvement method for service operations based on the Theory of Constraints (TOC), a management philosophy that has been shown to be effective in manufacturing for decreasing WIP and improving throughput. While TOC has enjoyed much attention and success in the manufacturing arena, its application to services in general has been limited. The contribution to industry and knowledge is a method for improving global performance measures based on TOC principles. The method proposed in this dissertation will be tested using discrete event simulation based on the scenario of the service factory of airline turnaround operations. To evaluate the method, a simulation model of aircraft turn operations of a U.S. based carrier was made and validated using actual data from airline operations. The model was then adjusted to reflect an application of the Theory of Constraints for determining how to deploy the scarce resource of ramp workers. The results indicate that, given slight modifications to TOC terminology and the development of a method for constraint identification, the Theory of Constraints can be applied with success to services. Bottlenecks in services must be defined as those processes for which the process rates and amount of work remaining are such that completing the process will not be possible without an increase in the process rate. The bottleneck ratio is used to determine to what degree a process is a constraint. Simulation results also suggest that redefining performance measures to reflect a global business perspective of reducing costs related to specific flights versus the operational local optimum approach of turning all aircraft quickly results in significant savings to the company. Savings to the annual operating costs of the airline were simulated to equal 30% of possible current expenses for misconnecting passengers with a modest increase in utilization of the workers through a more efficient heuristic of deploying them to the highest priority tasks. This dissertation contributes to the literature on service operations by describing a dynamic, adaptive dispatch approach to manage service factory operations similar to airline turnaround operations using the management philosophy of the Theory of Constraints.

Atividade de formação interprofissional em urgência pré-hospitalar

To acting in emergencies it is important that health professionals develop specific and differentiated skills, which shows us the importance of training in emergency planning. So undergraduate courses in medicine and nursing should encourage the development of these skills and evaluate them through various instruments targeted to the different fields. The aim of this study was to implement an optional and interprofessional curricular component, focusing on interprofessional education in pre-hospital emergency for medical and nursing courses Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). This is an exploratory descriptive study, with 24 medical and nursing graduates of last year undergraduate of supervised training, who underwent theoretical and practical training in the care of pre-hospital emergency services. There were theoretical and practical lessons per week for one school semester, taught by doctors and nurses of the Emergency Medical Service (EMS), where the topics discussed were: basic and advanced life support, safe transport in clinical emergencies, trauma, gynecological, obstetric, pediatric and psychiatric diseases, and have been carried out practical activities in ambulances. The students were evaluated by pre-test, post-test and practical stations made through the Objective Structured Clinical Evaluation (OSCE), in the skills laboratory of the Health Sciences Center. During the activities the students were encouraged to critical and reflective thinking, highlighting the importance of integration between the various health care professionals. It was observed that 88% of the students had a score increase over the pre-test. In the evaluation process carried out by medical students and nursing UFRN have similar expectations regarding the essential skills acquired during the training activity. The results of this study will form the basis for the organization of interprofessional education activity in pre-hospital emergency medical students and nursing, as well as helped to organize practices stations, identifying basic clinical skills, and implementing student assessment tools UFRN.

Detección de fraude bancario en tiempo real utilizando tecnologías de procesamiento distribuido

En este Trabajo de Fin de Máster se desarrollará un sistema de detección de fraude en pagos con tarjeta de crédito en tiempo real utilizando tecnologías de procesamiento distribuido. Concretamente se considerarán dos tecnologías: TIBCO, un conjunto de herramientas comerciales diseñadas para el procesamiento de eventos complejos, y Apache Spark, un sistema abierto para el procesamiento de datos en tiempo real. Además de implementar el sistema utilizando las dos tecnologías propuestas, un objetivo, otro objetivo de este Trabajo de Fin de Máster consiste en analizar y comparar estos dos sistemas implementados usados para procesamiento en tiempo real. Para la detección de fraude en pagos con tarjeta de crédito se aplicarán técnicas de aprendizaje máquina, concretamente del campo de anomaly/outlier detection. Como fuentes de datos que alimenten los sistemas, haremos uso de tecnologías de colas de mensajes como TIBCO EMS y Kafka. Los datos generados son enviados a estas colas para que los respectivos sistemas puedan procesarlos y aplicar el algoritmo de aprendizaje máquina, determinando si una nueva instancia es fraude o no. Ambos sistemas hacen uso de una base de datos MongoDB para almacenar los datos generados de forma pseudoaleatoria por los generadores de mensajes, correspondientes a movimientos de tarjetas de crédito. Estos movimientos posteriormente serán usados como conjunto de entrenamiento para el algoritmo de aprendizaje máquina.

Low frequency of cigarette smoking and the risk of head and neck cancer in the INHANCE consortium pooled analysis

Funding • The pooled data coordination team (PBoffetta, MH, YCAL) were supported by National Cancer Institute grant R03CA113157 and by National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research grant R03DE016611 • The Milan study (CLV) was supported by the Italian Association for Research on Cancer (Grant no. 10068). • The Aviano study (LDM) was supported by a grant from the Italian Association for Research on Cancer (AIRC), Italian League Against Cancer and Italian Ministry of Research • The Italy Multicenter study (DS) was supported by the Italian Association for Research on Cancer (AIRC), Italian League Against Cancer and Italian Ministry of Research. • The Study from Switzerland (FL) was supported by the Swiss League against Cancer and the Swiss Research against Cancer/Oncosuisse [KFS-700, OCS-1633]. • The central Europe study (PBoffetta, PBrenan, EF, JL, DM, PR, OS, NS-D) was supported by the World Cancer Research Fund and the European Commission INCOCOPERNICUS Program [Contract No. IC15- CT98-0332] • The New York multicentre study (JM) was supported by a grant from National Institute of Health [P01CA068384 K07CA104231]. • The study from the Fred Hutchison Cancer Research Center from Seattle (CC, SMS) was supported by a National Institute of Health grant [R01CA048996, R01DE012609]. • The Iowa study (ES) was supported by National Instituteof Health [NIDCR R01DE011979, NIDCR R01DE013110, FIRCA TW001500] and Veterans Affairs Merit Review Funds. • The North Carolina studies (AFO) were supported by National Institute of Health [R01CA061188], and in part by a grant from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences [P30ES010126]. • The Tampa study (PLazarus, JM) was supported by National Institute of Health grants [P01CA068384, K07CA104231, R01DE013158] • The Los Angeles study (Z-F Z, HM) was supported by grants from National Institute of Health [P50CA090388, R01DA011386, R03CA077954, T32CA009142, U01CA096134, R21ES011667] and the Alper Research Program for Environmental Genomics of the UCLA Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center. • The Houston study (EMS, GL) was supported by a grant from National Institute of Health [R01ES011740, R01CA100264]. • The Puerto Rico study (RBH, MPP) was supported by a grant from National Institutes of Health (NCI) US and NIDCR intramural programs. • The Latin America study (PBoffetta, PBrenan, MV, LF, MPC, AM, AWD, SK, VW-F) was supported by Fondo para la Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (FONCYT) Argentina, IMIM (Barcelona), Fundaco de Amparo a‘ Pesquisa no Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) [No 01/01768-2], and European Commission [IC18-CT97-0222] • The IARC multicentre study (SF, RH, XC) was supported by Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias (FIS) of the Spanish Government [FIS 97/ 0024, FIS 97/0662, BAE 01/5013], International Union Against Cancer (UICC), and Yamagiwa-Yoshida Memorial International Cancer Study Grant. • The Boston study (KKelsey, MMcC) was supported by a grant from National Institute of Health [R01CA078609, R01CA100679]. • The Rome study (SB, GC) was supported by AIRC (Italian Agency for Research on Cancer). • The US multicentre study (BW) was supported by The Intramural Program of the National Cancer Institute, National Institute of Health, United States. • The Sao Paolo study (V W-F) was supported by Fundacao de Ampara a Pesquisa no Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP No 10/51168-0) • The MSKCC study (SS, G-P Y) was supported by a grant from National Institute of Health [R01CA051845]. • The Seattle-Leo stud (FV) was supported by a grant from National Institute of Health [R01CA030022] • The western Europe Study (PBoffetta, IH, WA, PLagiou, DS, LS, FM, CH, KKjaerheim, DC, TMc, PT, AA, AZ) was supported by European Community (5th Frame work Programme) grant no QLK1-CT-2001- 00182. • The Germany Heidelberg study (HR) was supported by the grant No. 01GB9702/3 from the German Ministry of Education and Research.

Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

Cell Fate Specification and the Regulation of RNA-dependent DNA Methylation in the Arabidopsis Root Meristem

The Arabidopsis root apical meristem (RAM) is a complex tissue capable of generating all the cell types that ultimately make up the root. The work presented in this thesis takes advantage of the versatility of high-throughput sequencing to address two independent questions about the root meristem. Although a lot of information is known regarding the cell fate decisions that occur at the RAM, cortex specification and differentiation remain poorly understood. In the first part of this thesis, I used an ethylmethanesulfonate (EMS) mutagenized marker line to perform a forward genetics screen. The goal of this screen was to identify novel genes involved in the specification and differentiation of the cortex tissue. Mapping analysis from the results obtained in this screen revealed a new allele of BRASSINOSTEROID4 with abnormal marker expression in the cortex tissue. Although this allele proved to be non-cortex specific, this project highlights new technology that allows mapping of EMS-generated mutations without the need to map-cross or back-cross. In the second part of this thesis, using fluorescence activated cell sorting (FACS) coupled with high throughput sequencing, my collaborators and I generated single-base resolution whole genome DNA methylomes, mRNA transcriptomes, and smallRNA transcriptomes for six different populations of cell types in the Arabidopsis root meristem. We were able to discover that the columella is hypermethylated in the CHH context within transposable elements. This hypermethylation is accompanied by upregulation of the RNA-dependent DNA methylation pathway (RdDM), including higher levels of 24-nt silencing RNAs (siRNAs). In summary, our studies demonstrate the versatility of high-throughput sequencing as a method for identifying single mutations or to perform complex comparative genomic analyses.

Barriers to reporting child maltreatment: do emergency medical services professionals fully understand their role as mandatory reporters?

BACKGROUND: Child maltreatment is underreported in the United States and in North Carolina. In North Carolina and other states, mandatory reporting laws require various professionals to make reports, thereby helping to reduce underreporting of child maltreatment. This study aims to understand why emergency medical services (EMS) professionals may fail to report suspicions of maltreatment despite mandatory reporting policies. METHODS: A web-based, anonymous, voluntary survey of EMS professionals in North Carolina was used to assess knowledge of their agency's written protocols and potential reasons for underreporting suspicion of maltreatment (n=444). Results were based on descriptive statistics. Responses of line staff and leadership personnel were compared using chi-square analysis. RESULTS: Thirty-eight percent of respondents were unaware of their agency's written protocols regarding reporting of child maltreatment. Additionally, 25% of EMS professionals who knew of their agency's protocol incorrectly believed that the report should be filed by someone other than the person with firsthand knowledge of the suspected maltreatment. Leadership personnel generally understood reporting requirements better than did line staff. Respondents indicated that peers may fail to report maltreatment for several reasons: they believe another authority would file the report, including the hospital (52.3%) or law enforcement (27.7%); they are uncertain whether they had witnessed abuse (47.7%); and they are uncertain about what should be reported (41.4%). LIMITATIONS: This survey may not generalize to all EMS professionals in North Carolina. CONCLUSIONS: Training opportunities for EMS professionals that address proper identification and reporting of child maltreatment, as well as cross-agency information sharing, are warranted.

Sedimentology of core GeoTu_SL110 from the eastern Mediterranean Sea

Clay mineral assemblages in a sediment core from the distal Nile discharge plume off Israel have been used to reconstruct the late Quaternary Nile sediment discharge into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS). The record spans the last ca. 140 ka. Smectite abundances indicate the influence of the Blue Nile and Atbara that have their headwaters in the volcanic rocks of the Ethiopian highlands. Kaolinite abundances indicate the influence of wadis, which contribute periodically to the suspension load of the Nile. Due to the geographical position, the climate and the sedimentary framework of the EMS is controlled by two climate systems. The long-term climate regime was governed by the African monsoon that caused major humid periods with enhanced sediment discharge at 132 to <126 ka (AHP5), 116 to 99 ka (AHP4), and 89 to 77 ka (AHP3). They lasted much longer than the formation of the related sapropel layers S5 (>2 ka), S4 (3.5 ka) and S3 (5 ka). During the last glacial period (MIS 4-2) the long-term changes of the monsoonal system were superimposed by millennial-scale changes of an intensified mid-latitude glacial system. This climate regime caused short but pronounced drought periods in the Nile catchment, which are linked to Heinrich Events and alternate with more humid interstadials. The clay mineral record further implies that feedback mechanisms between vegetation cover and sediment discharge of the Nile are detectable but of minor importance for the sedimentary record in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea during the investigated African Humid Periods.

Late Pleistocene sedimentation in the Western Mediterranean Sea

Sediment cores from the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMS) have been analyzed for their bulk element composition, delta18O values of planktic foraminiferal tests, and 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd ratios of their bulk lithogenic components. The investigated time interval comprises the last 215 kyr. Si/Al and Ti/Al ratios as well as radiogenic isotope compositions indicate changes in the provenance of the lithogenic components between glacial intervals and interglacial phases. Comparison with modern data indicates that detrital input from the northwestern and northeastern Sahara may have dominated during interglacial phases. In contrast, during glacial periods the accumulation rate of terrigenous sediment is high and changes in the sediment source areas are evident that may be related to changes in the prevailing atmospheric circulation over the basin and its source areas. A productivity reconstruction based on bio-mediated barium accumulation rates reveals increased surface productivity during glacial phases. Intervals time-equivalent to sapropel formation in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS) show no changes in surface productivity compared to the intervening intervals. Comparison of the productivity patterns between the WMS and EMS suggests a decoupling during Late Pleistocene sapropel formation and highlights the importance of more localized factors such as the freshwater drainage basin.

The significance of nitrogen regeneration for new production within a filament of the Mauritanian upwelling system

The Lagrangian progression of a biological community was followed in a filament of the Mauritanian upwelling system, north-west Africa, during offshore advection. The inert dual tracers sulfur hexafluoride and helium-3 labelled a freshly upwelled patch of water that was mapped for 8 days. Changes in biological, physical, and chemical characteristics were measured, including phytoplankton productivity, nitrogen assimilation, and regeneration. Freshly upwelled water contained high nutrient concentrations but was depleted in N compared to Redfield stoichiometry. The highest rate of primary productivity was measured on the continental shelf, associated with high rates of nitrogen assimilation and a phytoplankton community dominated by diatoms and flagellates. Indicators of phytoplankton abundance and activity decreased as the labelled water mass transited the continental shelf slope into deeper water, possibly linked to the mixed layer depth exceeding the light penetration depth. By the end of the study, the primary productivity rate decreased and was associated with lower rates of nitrogen assimilation and lower nutrient concentrations. Nitrogen regeneration and assimilation took place simultaneously. Results highlighted the importance of regenerated NHC 4 in sustaining phytoplankton productivity and indicate that the upwelled NO3 pool contained an increasing fraction of regenerated NO3 as it advected offshore. By calculating this fraction and incorporating it into an f ratio formulation, we estimated that of the 12:38Tg C of annual regional production, 4:73Tg C was exportable.

The significance of nitrogen regeneration for new production within a filament of the Mauritanian upwelling system

The Lagrangian progression of a biological community was followed in a filament of the Mauritanian upwelling system, north-west Africa, during offshore advection. The inert dual tracers sulfur hexafluoride and helium-3 labelled a freshly upwelled patch of water that was mapped for 8 days. Changes in biological, physical, and chemical characteristics were measured, including phytoplankton productivity, nitrogen assimilation, and regeneration. Freshly upwelled water contained high nutrient concentrations but was depleted in N compared to Redfield stoichiometry. The highest rate of primary productivity was measured on the continental shelf, associated with high rates of nitrogen assimilation and a phytoplankton community dominated by diatoms and flagellates. Indicators of phytoplankton abundance and activity decreased as the labelled water mass transited the continental shelf slope into deeper water, possibly linked to the mixed layer depth exceeding the light penetration depth. By the end of the study, the primary productivity rate decreased and was associated with lower rates of nitrogen assimilation and lower nutrient concentrations. Nitrogen regeneration and assimilation took place simultaneously. Results highlighted the importance of regenerated NHC 4 in sustaining phytoplankton productivity and indicate that the upwelled NO3 pool contained an increasing fraction of regenerated NO3 as it advected offshore. By calculating this fraction and incorporating it into an f ratio formulation, we estimated that of the 12:38Tg C of annual regional production, 4:73Tg C was exportable.