Energy retrofits in social housing. Analysis of its thermal behaviour.

468 p.

Reducing energy demand: what are the practical limits?

Concern over the global energy system, whether driven by climate change, national security, or fears of shortage, is being discussed widely and in every arena but with a bias toward energy supply options. While demand reduction is often mentioned in passing, it is rarely a priority for implementation, whether through policy or through the search for innovation. This paper aims to draw attention to the opportunity for major reduction in energy demand, by presenting an analysis of how much of current global energy demand could be avoided. Previous work led to a "map" of global energy use that traces the flow of energy from primary sources (fuels or renewable sources), through fuel refinery, electricity generation, and end-use conversion devices, to passive systems and the delivery of final energy services (transport, illumination, and sustenance). The key passive systems are presented here and analyzed through simple engineering models with scalar equations using data based on current global practice. Physically credible options for change to key design parameters are identified and used to predict the energy savings possible for each system. The result demonstrates that 73% of global energy use could be saved by practically achievable design changes to passive systems. This reduction could be increased by further efficiency improvements in conversion devices. A list of the solutions required to achieve these savings is provided.

Managing water resources and their connection to land and energy

Effective management is a key to ensuring the current and future sustainability of land, water and energy resources. Identifying the complexities of such management is not an easy task, especially since past studies have focussed on studying these resources in isolation from one another. However, with rapid population growth and an increase in the awareness of a potential change in climatic conditions that may affect the demand for and supply of food, water and energy, there has been a growing need to integrate the planning decisions relating to these three resources. The paper shows the visualisation of linked resources by drawing a set of interconnected Sankey diagrams for energy, water and land. These track the changes from basic resource (e.g. coal, surface water, groundwater and cropland) through transformations (e.g. fuel refining and desalination) to final services (e.g. sustenance, hygiene and transportation). The focus here is on the water analysis aspects of the tool, which uses California as a detailed case study. The movement of water in California is traced from its source to its services by mapping the different transformations of water from when it becomes available, through its use, to further treatment, to final sinks (including recycling and reuse of that resource). The connections that water has with energy and land resources for the state of California are highlighted. This includes the amount of energy used to pump and treat water, and the amount of water used for energy production and the land resources which create a water demand to produce crops for food. By mapping water in this way, policy-makers and resource managers can more easily understand the competing uses of water (environment, agriculture and urban use) through the identification of the services it delivers (e.g. sanitation, agriculture, landscaping), the potential opportunities for improving the management of the resource (e.g. building new desalination plants, reducing the demand for services), and the connections with other resources which are often overlooked in a traditional sector-based management strategy.

Closing the Energy Efficiency Gap: A study linking demographics with barriers to adopting energy efficiency measures in the home

This paper presents a study which linked demographic variables with barriers affecting the adoption of domestic energy efficiency measures in large UK cities. The aim was to better understand the 'Energy Efficiency Gap' and improve the effectiveness of future energy efficiency initiatives. The data for this study was collected from 198 general population interviews (1.5-10 min) carried out across multiple locations in Manchester and Cardiff. The demographic variables were statistically linked to the identified barriers using a modified chi-square test of association (first order Rao-Scott corrected to compensate for multiple response data), and the effect size was estimated with an odds-ratio test. The results revealed that strong associations exist between demographics and barriers, specifically for the following variables: sex; marital status; education level; type of dwelling; number of occupants in household; residence (rent/own); and location (Manchester/Cardiff). The results and recommendations were aimed at city policy makers, local councils, and members of the construction/retrofit industry who are all working to improve the energy efficiency of the domestic built environment. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Embodied energy and gas emission of geotechnical infrastructure

Construction of geotechnical structures produces various environmental impacts. These include depletion of limited natural resources, generation of wastes and harmful substances during material productions and construction, ineffective usage of energy during processing of raw materials into construction materials, and emissions of unwanted gasses during transportation of materials and usage of equipments. With increasing interests in sustainability at the global scale, there is a need to develop a methodology that can assess environmental impacts at such scale for geotechnical construction. Using embodied energy and gas emission, quantitative measures of environmental impact are evaluated using a case study of a new high speed railway line construction in the UK. Based on the results, the keys to energy savings are (a) to optimise the usage of materials with high embodied energy intensity value (b) to optimise the transportation network and logistics for processes using primarily low embodied energy intensity materials and (c) to reuse as much materials on-site as possible to minimise the quantity of spoils or distance to disposal sites. The evaluated embodied energy and embodied carbon values are compared to those of other types of structures and of other activities and carbon tax values. Such comparisons can be used to discuss among various interested parties (clients, contractors, consultants, policy makers, etc) to make the construction industry more energy efficient. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011.

Is UK Planning a Barrier to Energy Efficient Heritage Retrofit: A Comparative Analysis of a Selection of London Boroughs

This paper is part of a larger PhD research project examining the apparent conflict in UK planning between energy efficiency and conservation for the retrofit of the thermal envelope of the existing building stock. Review of the literature shows that the UK will not meet its 2050 emission reduction target without substantial improvement to the energy performance of the thermal envelope of the existing building stock and that significantly, 40% of the existing stock has heritage status and may be exempted from Building Regulations. A review of UK policy and legislation shows that there are clear national priorities towards reducing emissions and addressing climate change, yet also shows a movement towards local decision making and control. This paper compares the current status of thirteen London Boroughs in respect to their position on thermal envelope retrofit for heritage and traditionally constructed buildings. Data collection is through ongoing surveys and interviews that compare statistical data, planning policies, sustainability and environmental priorities, and Officer decision-making. This paper finds that there is a lack of consistency in application of planning policy across Boroughs and suggests that this is a barrier to the up-take of energy efficient retrofit. Various recommendations are suggested at both national and local level which could help UK planning and planning officers deliver more energy efficient heritage retrofits.

Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Ireland's knowledge economy policy: beliefs, drivers and prospects

This dissertation critically examines Ireland’s knowledge economy policy, the country’s basis for economic recovery and growth, to enhance future policy decisions and debate. Much has been written internationally on the ‘knowledge economy’ with its emergence closely related to globalisation and technological progression in the 1990s. Since the late 1990s, Irish policy-makers have been firmly committed to positioning Ireland as a leading knowledge economy. Transforming the country’s competitive base to a knowledge economy is pivotal, directly shaping the course of Ireland’s economy and society. Given Ireland’s current economic crisis, limited resources, global competition from leaders in science and technology and growing challenges from emerging economies, a systematic study of Ireland’s major competitive policy is imperative. Above all, this study explores the processes behind the policy and the multiple actors from different institutions who follow and seek to influence decisions. The advocacy coalition framework is used to identify the advocacy coalition operating in the knowledge economy policy subsystem. The theoretical insights of this framework are also combined with other public policy approaches, providing complementary insights into the policy process. The research is framed around three elements - the beliefs underpinning the policy; who is driving the policy; and the prospects of the policy. Primary information is collected by way of semi-structured in-depth interviews with 49 Irish elites (politicians, senior bureaucrats, academics and business leaders) involved in the formation and implementation of the policy. This study finds that a strong advocacy coalition has formed in this policy subsystem whose members are collectively driving the policy. Both exogenous and endogenous forces help frame a common perception of the problems the policy addresses and the solutions it offers. Evidence suggests that this policy is a sustainable option for Ireland’s economic future and the study concludes with policy recommendations for advancing Ireland’s knowledge economy.

Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis

The approach used to model technological change in a climate policy model is a critical determinant of its results in terms of the time path of CO2 prices and costs required to achieve various emission reduction goals. We provide an overview of the different approaches used in the literature, with an emphasis on recent developments regarding endogenous technological change, research and development, and learning. Detailed examination sheds light on the salient features of each approach, including strengths, limitations, and policy implications. Key issues include proper accounting for the opportunity costs of climate-related knowledge generation, treatment of knowledge spillovers and appropriability, and the empirical basis for parameterizing technological relationships. No single approach appears to dominate on all these dimensions, and different approaches may be preferred depending on the purpose of the analysis, be it positive or normative. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Where does energy R&D come from? Examining crowding out from energy R&D

Recent efforts to endogenize technological change in climate policy models demonstrate the importance of accounting for the opportunity cost of climate R&D investments. Because the social returns to R&D investments are typically higher than the social returns to other types of investment, any new climate mitigation R&D that comes at the expense of other R&D investment may dampen the overall gains from induced technological change. Unfortunately, there has been little empirical work to guide modelers as to the potential magnitude of such crowding out effects. This paper considers both the private and social opportunity costs of climate R&D. Addressing private costs, we ask whether an increase in climate R&D represents new R&D spending, or whether some (or all) of the additional climate R&D comes at the expense of other R&D. Addressing social costs, we use patent citations to compare the social value of alternative energy research to other types of R&D that may be crowded out. Beginning at the industry level, we find no evidence of crowding out across sectors-that is, increases in energy R&D do not draw R&D resources away from sectors that do not perform R&D. Given this, we proceed with a detailed look at alternative energy R&D. Linking patent data and financial data by firm, we ask whether an increase in alternative energy patents leads to a decrease in other types of patenting activity. While we find that increases in alternative energy patents do result in fewer patents of other types, the evidence suggests that this is due to profit-maximizing changes in research effort, rather than financial constraints that limit the total amount of R&D possible. Finally, we use patent citation data to compare the social value of alternative energy patents to other patents by these firms. Alternative energy patents are cited more frequently, and by a wider range of other technologies, than other patents by these firms, suggesting that their social value is higher. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Carbon mitigation costs for the commercial building sector: Discrete-continuous choice analysis of multifuel energy demand

We estimate a carbon mitigation cost curve for the U.S. commercial sector based on econometric estimation of the responsiveness of fuel demand and equipment choices to energy price changes. The model econometrically estimates fuel demand conditional on fuel choice, which is characterized by a multinomial logit model. Separate estimation of end uses (e.g., heating, cooking) using the U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey allows for exceptionally detailed estimation of price responsiveness disaggregated by end use and fuel type. We then construct aggregate long-run elasticities, by fuel type, through a series of simulations; own-price elasticities range from -0.9 for district heat services to -2.9 for fuel oil. The simulations form the basis of a marginal cost curve for carbon mitigation, which suggests that a price of $20 per ton of carbon would result in an 8% reduction in commercial carbon emissions, and a price of $100 per ton would result in a 28% reduction. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Encouraging clean energy investment in developing countries: what role for aid?

A large portion of foreign assistance for climate change mitigation in developing countries is directed to clean energy facilities. To support international mitigation goals, however, donors must make investments that have effects beyond individual facilities. They must reduce barriers to private-sector investment by generating information for developers, improving relevant infrastructure, or changing policies. We examine whether donor agencies target financing for commercial-scale wind and solar facilities to countries where private investment in clean energy is limited and whether donor investments lead to more private investments. On average, we find no positive evidence for these patterns of targeting and impact. Coupled with model results that show feed-in tariffs increase private investment, we argue that donor agencies should reallocate resources to improve policies that promote private investment in developing countries, rather than finance individual clean energy facilities.

The future of energy: are competitive markets and nuclear power the answer?

The inaugural lecture of Professor Stephen Thomas at the University of Greenwich, 4th February 2010. It examines whether further pursuit of competition in energy markets and expansion in the role of nuclear power can be the main elements in a policy to meet goals of security, sustainability and affordability.

Integrating Land Use Planning and Transportation: Policy formulation in the Belfast Metropolitan Area

Much of the interest in sustainable cities relates to the inexorable rise in the demand for car travel and the contribution that certain urban forms and land-use relationships can make to reducing energy consumption. Indeed, this demand is fuelled more by increased spatial separation of homes and workplaces, shops and schools than by any rise in trip making. This paper evaluates recent efforts to integrate land-use planning and transportation policy in the Belfast Metropolitan Area by reviewing the policy formulation process at both a regional and city scale. The paper suggests that considerable progress has been made in integrating these two areas of public policy, both institutionally and conceptually. However, concerns are expressed that the rhetoric of sustainability may prove difficult to translate into implementation, leading to a further dislocation of land-use and transportation.