Tecniche MonteCarlo per l'analisi di sistemi a rete

The assessment of the RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) performances of system generally includes the evaluations of the “Importance” of its components and/or of the basic parameters of the model through the use of the Importance Measures. The analytical equations proposed in this study allow the estimation of the first order Differential Importance Measure on the basis of the Birnbaum measures of components, under the hypothesis of uniform percentage changes of parameters. The aging phenomena are introduced into the model by assuming exponential-linear or Weibull distributions for the failure probabilities. An algorithm based on a combination of MonteCarlo simulation and Cellular Automata is applied in order to evaluate the performance of a networked system, made up of source nodes, user nodes and directed edges subjected to failure and repair. Importance Sampling techniques are used for the estimation of the first and total order Differential Importance Measures through only one simulation of the system “operational life”. All the output variables are computed contemporaneously on the basis of the same sequence of the involved components, event types (failure or repair) and transition times. The failure/repair probabilities are forced to be the same for all components; the transition times are sampled from the unbiased probability distributions or it can be also forced, for instance, by assuring the occurrence of at least a failure within the system operational life. The algorithm allows considering different types of maintenance actions: corrective maintenance that can be performed either immediately upon the component failure or upon finding that the component has failed for hidden failures that are not detected until an inspection; and preventive maintenance, that can be performed upon a fixed interval. It is possible to use a restoration factor to determine the age of the component after a repair or any other maintenance action.

Timing per l'inserimento in lista dei pazienti affetti da fibrosi cistica che necessitano di trapianto polmonare: casistica di un centro regionale di riferimento

Timing of waiting list entrance for patients with cystic fibrosis in need of pulmonary transplant: the experience of a regional referral centre Objective: Evaluation of parameters that can predict a rapid decay of general conditions of patients affected by Cystic Fibrosis (CF) with no specific criteria to be candidate to pulmonary transplant. Material and methods: Fifteen patients with CF who died for complications and 8 who underwent lung transplantation in the 2000-2010 decade, were enrolled. Clinical data 2 years before the event (body max index, FEV1%, number of EV antibiotic treatments per year, colonization with Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), pseudomonas aeruginosa mucosus, burkholderia cepacia, pulmonary allergic aspergilosis) were compared among the 2 groups. Results: Mean FEV1% was significantly higher and mean number of antibiotic treatment was lower in deceased than in the transplanted patients (p<0.002 and p<0.001 respectively). Although in patients who died there were no including criteria to enter the transplant list 2 years before the exitus, suggestive findings such as low BMI (17.3), high incidence of hepatic pathology (33.3%), diabetes (50%), and infections with MRSA infection (25%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (83.3%) and burkholderia cepacia (8.3%) were found with no statistical difference with transplanted patients, suggesting those patients were at risk of severe prognosis. In patients who died, females were double than males. Conclusion: While evaluating patients with CF, negative prognostic factors such as the ones investigated in this study, should be considered to select individuals with high mortality risk who need stricter therapeutical approach and follow up. Inclusion of those patients in the transplant waiting list should be taken into account.

Tecniche avanzate per l'analisi di sensitività globale: applicazione alla contaminazione delle acque sotterranee.

The thesis is framed within the field of the stochastic approach to flow and transport themes of solutes in natural porous materials. The methodology used to characterise the uncertainty associated with the modular predictions is completely general and can be reproduced in various contexts. The theme of the research includes the following among its main objectives: (a) the development of a Global Sensitivity Analysis on contaminant transport models in the subsoil to research the effects of the uncertainty of the most important parameters; (b) the application of advanced techniques, such as Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), for obtaining surrogate models starting from those which conduct traditionally developed analyses in the context of Monte Carlo simulations, characterised by an often not negligible computational burden; (c) the analyses and the understanding of the key processes at the basis of the transport of solutes in natural porous materials using the aforementioned technical and analysis resources. In the complete picture, the thesis looks at the application of a Continuous Injection transport model of contaminants, of the PCE technique which has already been developed and applied by the thesis supervisors, by way of numerical code, to a Slug Injection model. The methodology was applied to the aforementioned model with original contribution deriving from surrogate models with various degrees of approximation and developing a Global Sensitivity Analysis aimed at the determination of Sobol’ indices.

Sviluppo di sistemi per l'analisi della combustione in tempo reale per motori endotermici alternativi

I moderni motori a combustione interna diventano sempre più complessi L'introduzione della normativa antinquinamento EURO VI richiederà una significativa riduzione degli inquinanti allo scarico. La maggiore criticità è rappresentata dalla riduzione degli NOx per i motori Diesel da aggiungersi a quelle già in vigore con le precedenti normative. Tipicamente la messa a punto di una nuova motorizzazione prevede una serie di test specifici al banco prova. Il numero sempre maggiore di parametri di controllo della combustione, sorti come conseguenza della maggior complessità meccanica del motore stesso, causa un aumento esponenziale delle prove da eseguire per caratterizzare l'intero sistema. L'obiettivo di questo progetto di dottorato è quello di realizzare un sistema di analisi della combustione in tempo reale in cui siano implementati diversi algoritmi non ancora presenti nelle centraline moderne. Tutto questo facendo particolare attenzione alla scelta dell'hardware su cui implementare gli algoritmi di analisi. Creando una piattaforma di Rapid Control Prototyping (RCP) che sfrutti la maggior parte dei sensori presenti in vettura di serie; che sia in grado di abbreviare i tempi e i costi della sperimentazione sui motopropulsori, riducendo la necessità di effettuare analisi a posteriori, su dati precedentemente acquisiti, a fronte di una maggior quantità di calcoli effettuati in tempo reale. La soluzione proposta garantisce l'aggiornabilità, la possibilità di mantenere al massimo livello tecnologico la piattaforma di calcolo, allontanandone l'obsolescenza e i costi di sostituzione. Questa proprietà si traduce nella necessità di mantenere la compatibilità tra hardware e software di generazioni differenti, rendendo possibile la sostituzione di quei componenti che limitano le prestazioni senza riprogettare il software.

Riabilitazione e valutazione di pazienti con deficit neurologici mediante l'utilizzo di realtà virtuale, feedback aumentati, sensori inerziali e tecnologie video a basso costo.

La neuroriabilitazione è un processo attraverso cui individui affetti da patologie neurologiche mirano al conseguimento di un recupero completo o alla realizzazione del loro potenziale ottimale benessere fisico, mentale e sociale. Elementi essenziali per una riabilitazione efficace sono: una valutazione clinica da parte di un team multidisciplinare, un programma riabilitativo mirato e la valutazione dei risultati conseguiti mediante misure scientifiche e clinicamente appropriate. Obiettivo principale di questa tesi è stato sviluppare metodi e strumenti quantitativi per il trattamento e la valutazione motoria di pazienti neurologici. I trattamenti riabilitativi convenzionali richiedono a pazienti neurologici l’esecuzione di esercizi ripetitivi, diminuendo la loro motivazione. La realtà virtuale e i feedback sono in grado di coinvolgerli nel trattamento, permettendo ripetibilità e standardizzazione dei protocolli. È stato sviluppato e valutato uno strumento basato su feedback aumentati per il controllo del tronco. Inoltre, la realtà virtuale permette l’individualizzare il trattamento in base alle esigenze del paziente. Un’applicazione virtuale per la riabilitazione del cammino è stata sviluppata e testata durante un training su pazienti di sclerosi multipla, valutandone fattibilità e accettazione e dimostrando l'efficacia del trattamento. La valutazione quantitativa delle capacità motorie dei pazienti viene effettuata utilizzando sistemi di motion capture. Essendo il loro uso nella pratica clinica limitato, una metodologia per valutare l’oscillazione delle braccia in soggetti parkinsoniani basata su sensori inerziali è stata proposta. Questi sono piccoli, accurati e flessibili ma accumulano errori durante lunghe misurazioni. È stato affrontato questo problema e i risultati suggeriscono che, se il sensore è sul piede e le accelerazioni sono integrate iniziando dalla fase di mid stance, l’errore e le sue conseguenze nella determinazione dei parametri spaziali sono contenuti. Infine, è stata presentata una validazione del Kinect per il tracking del cammino in ambiente virtuale. Risultati preliminari consentono di definire il campo di utilizzo del sensore in riabilitazione.

Differences in Soil Fungal Communities between European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Dominated Forests Are Related to Soil and Understory Vegetation

Fungi are important members of soil microbial communities with a crucial role in biogeochemical processes. Although soil fungi are known to be highly diverse, little is known about factors influencing variations in their diversity and community structure among forests dominated by the same tree species but spread over different regions and under different managements. We analyzed the soil fungal diversity and community composition of managed and unmanaged European beech dominated forests located in three German regions, the Schwäbische Alb in Southwestern, the Hainich-Dün in Central and the Schorfheide Chorin in the Northeastern Germany, using internal transcribed spacer (ITS) rDNA pyrotag sequencing. Multiple sequence quality filtering followed by sequence data normalization revealed 1655 fungal operational taxonomic units. Further analysis based on 722 abundant fungal OTUs revealed the phylum Basidiomycota to be dominant (54%) and its community to comprise 71.4% of ectomycorrhizal taxa. Fungal community structure differed significantly (p≤0.001) among the three regions and was characterized by non-random fungal OTUs co-occurrence. Soil parameters, herbaceous understory vegetation, and litter cover affected fungal community structure. However, within each study region we found no difference in fungal community structure between management types. Our results also showed region specific significant correlation patterns between the dominant ectomycorrhizal fungal genera. This suggests that soil fungal communities are region-specific but nevertheless composed of functionally diverse and complementary taxa.

Effect of X-ray tube parameters, iodine concentration, and patient size on image quality in pulmonary computed tomography angiography: a chest-phantom-study

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this phantom study was to evaluate the contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) in pulmonary computed tomography (CT)-angiography for 300 and 400 mg iodine/mL contrast media using variable x-ray tube parameters and patient sizes. We also analyzed the possible strategies of dose reduction in patients with different sizes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The segmental pulmonary arteries were simulated by plastic tubes filled with 1:30 diluted solutions of 300 and 400 mg iodine/mL contrast media in a chest phantom mimicking thick, intermediate, and thin patients. Volume scanning was done with a CT scanner at 80, 100, 120, and 140 kVp. Tube current-time products (mAs) varied between 50 and 120% of the optimal value given by the built-in automatic dose optimization protocol. Attenuation values and CNR for both contrast media were evaluated and compared with the volume CT dose index (CTDI(vol)). Figure of merit, calculated as CNR/CTDIvol, was used to quantify image quality improvement per exposure risk to the patient. RESULTS: Attenuation of iodinated contrast media increased both with decreasing tube voltage and patient size. A CTDIvol reduction by 44% was achieved in the thin phantom with the use of 80 instead of 140 kVp without deterioration of CNR. Figure of merit correlated with kVp in the thin phantom (r = -0.897 to -0.999; P < 0.05) but not in the intermediate and thick phantoms (P = 0.09-0.71), reflecting a decreasing benefit of tube voltage reduction on image quality as the thickness of the phantom increased. Compared with the 300 mg iodine/mL concentration, the same CNR for 400 mg iodine/mL contrast medium was achieved at a lower CTDIvol by 18 to 40%, depending on phantom size and applied tube voltage. CONCLUSIONS: Low kVp protocols for pulmonary embolism are potentially advantageous especially in thin and, to a lesser extent, in intermediate patients. Thin patients profit from low voltage protocols preserving a good CNR at a lower exposure. The use of 80 kVp in obese patients may be problematic because of the limitation of the tube current available, reduced CNR, and high skin dose. The high CNR of the 400 mg iodine/mL contrast medium together with lower tube energy and/or current can be used for exposure reduction.

Planting and production of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) as a bioenergy crop in Michigan's Upper Peninsula

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial grass holding great promise as a biofuel resource. While Michigan’s Upper Peninsula has an appropriate land base and climatic conditions, there is little research exploring the possibilities of switchgrass production. The overall objectives of this research were to investigate switchgrass establishment in the northern edge of its distribution through: investigating the effects of competition on the germination and establishment of switchgrass through the developmental and competitive characteristics of Cave-in-Rock switchgrass and large crabgrass (Digitaria sanguinalis L.) in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula; and, determining the optimum planting depths and timing for switchgrass in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. For the competition study, a randomized complete block design was installed June 2009 at two locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Four treatments (0, 1, 4, and 8 plants/m2) of crabgrass were planted with one switchgrass plant. There was a significant difference between switchgrass biomass produced in year one, as a function of crabgrass weed pressure. There was no significant difference between the switchgrass biomass produced in year two versus previous crabgrass weed pressure. There is a significant difference between switchgrass biomass produced in year one and two. For the depth and timing study, a completely randomized design was installed at two locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula on seven planting dates (three fall 2009, and four spring 2010); 25 seeds were planted 2 cm apart along 0.5 m rows at depths of: 0.6 cm, 1.3 cm, and 1.9 cm. Emergence and biomass yields were compared by planting date, and depths. A greenhouse seeding experiment was established using the same planting depths and parameters as the field study. The number of seedlings was tallied daily for 30 days. There was a significant difference in survivorship between the fall and spring planting dates, with the spring being more successful. Of the four spring planting dates, there was a significant difference between May and June in emergence and biomass yield. June planting dates had the most percent emergence and total survivorship. There is no significant difference between planting switchgrass at depths of 0.6 cm, 1.3 cm, and 1.9 cm. In conclusion, switchgrass showed no signs of a legacy effect of competition from year one, on biomass production. Overall, an antagonistic effect on switchgrass biomass yield during the establishment period has been observed as a result of increasing competing weed pressure. When planting switchgrass in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, it should be done in the spring, within the first two weeks of June, at any depth ranging from 0.6 cm to 1.9 cm.

Time-dependent interactions of the two porphyrinic compounds chlorin e6 and mono-L-aspartyl-chlorin e6 with phospholipid vesicles probed by NMR spectroscopy

The distribution processes of chlorin e6 (CE) and monoaspartyl-chlorin e6 (MACE) between the outer and inner phospholipid monolayers of 1,2-dioleoyl-phosphatidylcholine (DOPC) vesicles were monitored by 1H NMR spectroscopy through analysis of chemical shifts and line widths of the DOPC vesicle resonances. Chlorin adsorption to the outer vesicle monolayer induced changes in the DOPC 1H NMR spectrum. Most pronounced was a split of the N-methyl choline resonance, allowing for separate analysis of inner and outer vesicle layers. Transbilayer distribution of the chlorin compounds was indicated by time-dependent characteristic spectral changes of the DOPC resonances. Kinetic parameters for the flip-flop processes, that is, half-lives and rate constants, were obtained from the experimental data points. In comparison to CE, MACE transbilayer movement was significantly reduced, with MACE remaining more or less attached to the outer membrane layer. The distribution coefficients for CE and MACE between the vesicular and aqueous phase were determined. Both CE and MACE exhibited a high affinity for the vesicular phase. For CE, a positive correlation was found between transfer rate and increasing molar ratio CE/DOPC. Enhanced membrane rigidity induced by increasing amounts of cholesterol into the model membrane was accompanied by a decrease of CE flip-flop rates across the membrane. The present study shows that the movement of porphyrins across membranes can efficiently be investigated by 1H NMR spectroscopy and that small changes in porphyrin structure can have large effects on membrane kinetics.