Constructing good deals in discrete time arbitrage-free dynamic pricing models

Recent literature has proved that many classical pricing models (Black and Scholes, Heston, etc.) and risk measures (V aR, CV aR, etc.) may lead to “pathological meaningless situations”, since traders can build sequences of portfolios whose risk leveltends to −infinity and whose expected return tends to +infinity, i.e., (risk = −infinity, return = +infinity). Such a sequence of strategies may be called “good deal”. This paper focuses on the risk measures V aR and CV aR and analyzes this caveat in a discrete time complete pricing model. Under quite general conditions the explicit expression of a good deal is given, and its sensitivity with respect to some possible measurement errors is provided too. We point out that a critical property is the absence of short sales. In such a case we first construct a “shadow riskless asset” (SRA) without short sales and then the good deal is given by borrowing more and more money so as to invest in the SRA. It is also shown that the SRA is interested by itself, even if there are short selling restrictions.

Simulation of default events in a CDX and estimation of the spread

The portfolio generating the iTraxx EUR index is modeled by coupled Markov chains. Each of the industries of the portfolio evolves according to its own Markov transition matrix. Using a variant of the method of moments, the model parameters are estimated from a data set of Standard and Poor's. Swap spreads are evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations. Along with an actuarially fair spread, at least squares spread is considered.

Grid Integration of Offshore Wind Farms Using Modular Marx Multilevel Converters

This paper proposes the use of a Modular Marx Multilevel Converter, as a solution for energy integration between an offshore Wind Farm and the power grid network. The Marx modular multilevel converter is based on the Marx generator, and solves two typical problems in this type of multilevel topologies: modularity and dc capacitor voltage balancing. This paper details the strategy for dc capacitor voltage equalization. The dynamic models of the converter and power grid are presented in order to design the converter ac output voltages and the dc capacitor voltage controller. The average current control is presented and used for power flow control, harmonics and reactive power compensation. Simulation results are presented in order to show the effectiveness of the proposed (MC)-C-3 topology.

Improving management skills through business simulation

A survey was conducted among students of the Accounting and Administration undergraduate degree at ISCAP – IPP (School of Accounting and Administration of Polytechnic Institute of Porto) in order to understand their perception value of their course Business Simulation (BS). This course is provided in a business environment where students can learn by doing through the management of a company as they were in the real life, but risk-free. The learning tasks are provided in an action-oriented format to maximize the learning process. Students learn by doing a set of tasks every session and have also to produce reports and presentations during the course. BS is part of the undergraduate degree of Accounting and Administration at ISCAP – IPP since the beginning of 2003. The questionnaire we used captured the students’ perception about general and specific skills and competencies considered important for managers and accountants in the real life, about the methodology used in the course, which is totally different from the traditional form, and also about the adequacy of the course included as part of the undergraduate degree. The results showed that students’ perception is highly positive and almost all of them think they improve the skills needed for a job during the course. These results are consistent with [1] Adler and Milne’s research in which the authors found that students agree with the use of action-oriented learning tasks in order to provide them the needed attitudes, skills, and knowledge. The improvement of group skills is the most important issue for students, which can be understandable as BS is the only course from the degree in Accounting and Administration they really have to work in groups.

A strategy to extend reactive distillation column performance under catalyst deactivation

This work addresses the effects of catalyst deactivation and investigates methods to reduce their impact on the reactive distillation columns performance. The use of variable feed quality and reboil ratio are investigated using a rigorous dynamic model developed in gPROMS and applied to an illustrative example, i.e., the olefin metathesis system, wherein 2-pentene reacts to form 2-butene and 3-hexene. Three designs and different strategies on column energy supply to tackle catalyst deactivation are investigated and the results compared.

Biochemical and structural characterization of β-lactamases tem-180 and tem-201

With the constant development of new antibiotics, selective pressure is a force to reckon when investigating antibiotic resistance. Although advantageous for medical treatments, it leads to increasing resistance. It is essential to use more potent and toxic antibiotics. Enzymes capable of hydrolyzing antibiotics are among the most common ways of resistance and TEM variants have been detected in several resistant isolates. Due to the rapid evolution of these variants, complex phenotypes have emerged and the need to understand their biological activity becomes crucial. To investigate the biochemical properties of TEM-180 and TEM-201 several computational methodologies have been used, allowing the comprehension of their structure and catalytic activity, which translates into their biological phenotype. In this work we intent to characterize the interface between these proteins and the several antibiotics used as ligands. We performed explicit solvent molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of these complexes and studied a variety of structural and energetic features. The interfacial residues show a distinct behavior when in complex with different antibiotics. Nevertheless, it was possible to identify some common Hot Spots among several complexes – Lys73, Tyr105 and Glu166. The structural changes that occur during the Molecular Dynamic (MD) simulation lead to the conclusion that these variants have an inherent capacity of adapting to the various antibiotics. This capability might be the reason why they can hydrolyze antibiotics that have not been described until now to be degraded by TEM variants. The results obtained with computational and experimental methodologies for the complex with Imipenem have shown that in order to this type of enzymes be able to acylate the antibiotics, they need to be capable to protect the ligand from water molecules.

Ankle dynamic in stroke patients: agonist vs. antagonist muscle relations

O documento em anexo encontra-se na versão post-print (versão corrigida pelo editor).

Intelligent decision making in electricity markets: simulated annealing Q-Learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS, a system that provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims at enhancing ALBidS competence in endowing market players with adequate strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible actions. These actions are defined accordingly to the most probable points of bidding success. With the purpose of accelerating the convergence process, a simulated annealing based algorithm is included.

MASGriP – a Multi-Agent Smart Grid Simulation Platform

The increasing number of players that operate in power systems leads to a more complex management. In this paper a new multi-agent platform is proposed, which simulates the real operation of power system players. MASGriP – A Multi-Agent Smart Grid Simulation Platform is presented. Several consumer and producer agents are implemented and simulated, considering real characteristics and different goals and actuation strategies. Aggregator entities, such as Virtual Power Players and Curtailment Service Providers are also included. The integration of MASGriP agents in MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator allows the simulation of technical and economical activities of several players. An energy resources management architecture used in microgrids is also explained.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

A simulation tool for demand response programs implementation

The design and development of simulation models and tools for Demand Response (DR) programs are becoming more and more important for adequately taking the maximum advantages of DR programs use. Moreover, a more active consumers’ participation in DR programs can help improving the system reliability and decrease or defer the required investments. DemSi, a DR simulator, designed and implemented by the authors of this paper, allows studying DR actions and schemes in distribution networks. It undertakes the technical validation of the solution using realistic network simulation based on PSCAD. DemSi considers the players involved in DR actions, and the results can be analyzed from each specific player point of view.

Multi-agent simulation of continental, regional, and micro electricity markets

Renewable based power generation has significantly increased over the last years. However, this process has evolved separately from electricity markets, leading to an inadequacy of the present market models to cope with huge quantities of renewable energy resources, and to take full advantage of the presently existing and the increasing envisaged renewable based and distributed energy resources. This paper proposes the modelling of electricity markets at several levels (continental, regional and micro), taking into account the specific characteristics of the players and resources involved in each level and ensuring that the proposed models accommodate adequate business models able to support the contribution of all the resources in the system, from the largest to the smaller ones. The proposed market models are integrated in MASCEM (Multi- Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), using the multi agent approach advantages for overcoming the current inadequacy and significant limitations of the presently existing electricity market simulators to deal with the complex electricity market models that must be adopted.

Self-optimization for dynamic scheduling in manufacturing systems

Scheduling is a critical function that is present throughout many industries and applications. A great need exists for developing scheduling approaches that can be applied to a number of different scheduling problems with significant impact on performance of business organizations. A challenge is emerging in the design of scheduling support systems for manufacturing environments where dynamic adaptation and optimization become increasingly important. In this paper, we describe a Self-Optimizing Mechanism for Scheduling System through Nature Inspired Optimization Techniques (NIT).

A hybrid intelligent system for distributed dynamic scheduling

This chapter addresses the resolution of dynamic scheduling by means of meta-heuristic and multi-agent systems. Scheduling is an important aspect of automation in manufacturing systems. Several contributions have been proposed, but the problem is far from being solved satisfactorily, especially if scheduling concerns real world applications. The proposed multi-agent scheduling system assumes the existence of several resource agents (which are decision-making entities based on meta-heuristics) distributed inside the manufacturing system that interact with other agents in order to obtain optimal or near-optimal global performances.

MASDSheGATS – Scheduling System for Dynamic Manufacturing Environments

This chapter addresses the resolution of scheduling in manufacturing systems subject to perturbations. The planning of Manufacturing Systems involves frequently the resolution of a huge amount and variety of combinatorial optimisation problems with an important impact on the performance of manufacturing organisations. Examples of those problems are the sequencing and scheduling problems in manufacturing management, routing and transportation, layout design and timetabling problems.