A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

GIS/GPS to document increased access to community-based treatment for tuberculosis in Africa

Application of geographic information system (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) technology in the Hlabisa community-based tuberculosis treatment programme documents the increase in accessibility to treatment after the expansion of the service from health facilities to include community workers and volunteers.

Strain-dependent fluid flow defined through rock mass classification schemes

Strain-dependent hydraulic conductivities are uniquely defined by an environmental factor, representing applied normal and shear strains, combined with intrinsic material parameters representing mass and component deformation moduli, initial conductivities, and mass structure. The components representing mass moduli and structure are defined in terms of RQD (rock quality designation) and RMR (rock mass rating) to represent the response of a whole spectrum of rock masses, varying from highly fractured (crushed) rock to intact rock. These two empirical parameters determine the hydraulic response of a fractured medium to the induced-deformations The constitutive relations are verified against available published data and applied to study one-dimensional, strain-dependent fluid flow. Analytical results indicate that both normal and shear strains exert a significant influence on the processes of fluid flow and that the magnitude of this influence is regulated by the values of RQD and RMR.

Incomplete, asymmetric, and route-dependent cross-tolerance between oxycodone and morphine in the Dark Agouti rat

Our previous studies indicate that oxycodone is a putative kappa-opioid agonist, whereas morphine is a well documented mu-opioid agonist. Because there is limited information regarding the development of tolerance to oxycodone, this study was designed to 1) document the development of tolerance to the antinociceptive effects of chronically infused i.v. oxycodone relative to that for i.v. morphine and 2) quantify the degree of antinociceptive cross-tolerance between morphine and oxycodone in adult male Dark Agouti (DA) rats. Antinociceptive testing was performed using the tail-flick latency test. Complete antinociceptive tolerance was achieved in 48 to 84 h after chronic infusion of equi-antinociceptive doses of i.v. oxycodone (2.5 mg/24 h and 5 mg/24 h) and i.v. morphine (10 mg/24 h and 20 mg/24 h, respectively). Dose-response curves for bolus doses of i.v. and i.c.v. morphine and oxycodone were produced in naive, morphine-tolerant, and oxycodone-tolerant rats. Consistent with our previous findings that oxycodone and morphine produce their intrinsic antinociceptive effects through distinctly different opioid receptor populations, there was no discernible cross-tolerance when i.c.v. oxycodone was given to morphine-tolerant rats. Similarly, only a low degree of cross-tolerance (approximate to 24%) was observed after i.v. oxycodone administration to morphine-tolerant rats. By contrast, both i.v. and i.c.v. morphine showed a high degree of cross-tolerance (approximate to 71% and approximate to 54%, respectively) in rats rendered tolerant to oxycodone. Taken together, these findings suggest that, after parenteral but not supraspinal administration, oxycodone is metabolized to a mu-opioid agonist metabolite, thereby explaining asymmetric and incomplete cross-tolerance between oxycodone and morphine.

Increasingly inequitable distribution of general practitioners in Australia, 1986-96

Objective: To document trends in the distribution of general practitioners (GPs) in Australia between 1986 and 1996, adjusted for community need. Methods: Data on the location of GPs, population size and crude mortality in statistical divisions (SD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing in 1986 and 1996. From these data, we calculated measures of distribution equality (number of people sharing each GP in each SD) and distribution equity (number of people sharing each GP divided by the crude mortality rate; the Robin Hood Index), and analysed temporal changes in the distribution of GPs. Results: Nationally the number of people sharing each GP fell 11% from 1,038 in 1986 to 921 in 1996. However, in 41 of 57 SDs (72%, p=0.01) the number of people sharing a GP actually increased over this time, and the average Robin Hood Index across SDs fell from 0.943 to 0.783 (p=0.004), indicating increasingly inequitable distribution. Comparing the Robin Hood index values of all SDs ranked in pairs, the value fell in 53 of 57 (93%, p<0.001) paired SDs over the decade. These patterns demonstrate increasing inequity over the decade. The number of people sharing each GP was consistently and substantially lower in the capital city SDs and the Robin Hood Index values were consistently and substantially higher (overserved) compared with country SDs. Conclusions: Despite there being more GPs per capita in Australia, their distribution became increasingly unequal and inequitable between 1986 and 1996, such that rural and remote areas became increasingly poorly served.

An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Quasars from a complete spectroscopic survey

With the advent of multi-fibre spectrographs such as the 'Two-Degree Field' (2dF) instrument at the Angle-Australian Telescope, quasar surveys that are free of any preselection of candidates and any biases this implies have become possible for the first time. The first of these is that which is being undertaken as part of the Fornax Spectroscopic Survey, a survey of the area around the Fornax Cluster of galaxies, and aims to obtain the spectra of all objects in the magnitude range 16.5 < b(j) < 19.7. To date, 3679 objects in the central pi -deg(2) area have been successfully identified from their spectral characteristics. Of these, 71 are found to be quasars, 61 with redshifts 0.3 < z < 2.2 and 10 with redshifts z > 2.2. Using this complete quasar sample, a new determination of quasar number counts is made, enabling an independent check of existing quasars surveys. Cumulative counts per square degree at a magnitude limit of b(j) < 19.5 are found to be 11.5 +/- 2.2 for 0.3 < z < 2.2, 2.22 +/- 0.93 for z > 2.2 and 13.7 +/- 3.1 for z > 0.3. Given the likely detection of extra quasars in the Fornax survey, we make a more detailed examination of existing quasar selection techniques. First, looking at the use of a stellar criterion, four of the 71 quasars are 'non-stellar' on the basis of the automated plate measuring facility (APM) b(j) classification, however inspection shows all are consistent with stellar, but misclassified due to image confusion. Examining the ultraviolet excess and multicolour selection techniques, for the selection criteria investigated, ultraviolet excess would find 69 +/- 6 per cent of our 0.3 < z < 2.2 quasars and only 50(-18)(+14), per cent of our z > 2.2 quasars, while the completeness level for multicolour selection is found to be 90(-4)(+3) per cent for 0.3 < z < 2.2 quasars and 80(-12)(+14) per cent for z > 2.2 quasars. The extra quasars detected by our all-object survey thus have unusually red star-like colours, and this appears to be a result of the continuum shape rather than any emission features. An intrinsic dust extinction model may, at least partly, account for the red colours.

Structuring real-time Object-Z specifications

This paper presents a means of structuring specifications in real-time Object-Z: an integration of Object-Z with the timed refinement calculus. Incremental modification of classes using inheritance and composition of classes to form multi-component systems are examined. Two approaches to the latter are considered: using Object-Z's notion of object instantiation and introducing a parallel composition operator similar to those found in process algebras. The parallel composition operator approach is both more concise and allows more general modelling of concurrency. Its incorporation into the existing semantics of real-time Object-Z is presented.

CysView: protein classification based on cysteine pairing patterns

CysView is a web-based application tool that identifies and classifies proteins according to their disulfide connectivity patterns. It accepts a dataset of annotated protein sequences in various formats and returns a graphical representation of cysteine pairing patterns. CysView displays cysteine patterns for those records in the data with disulfide annotations. It allows the viewing of records grouped by connectivity patterns. CysView's utility as an analysis tool was demonstrated by the rapid and correct classification of scorpion toxin entries from GenPept on the basis of their disulfide pairing patterns. It has proved useful for rapid detection of irrelevant and partial records, or those with incomplete annotations. CysView can be used to support distant homology between proteins. CysView is publicly available at http://research.i2r.a-star.edu.sg/CysView/.

Generic classification for the Gasteruptiinae (Hymenoptera: Gasteruptiidae) based on a cladistic analysis, with the description of two new Neotropical genera and the revalidation of Plutofoenus Kieffer

Gasteruptiinae is the largest Gasteruptiidae subfamily, with circa 400 species that have been grouped into the worldwide Gasteruption Latreille. Based on a cladistic analysis with 43 morphological characters, 40 ingroup taxa representing all biogeographic regions, and seven outgroups (four Hyptiogastrinae, two Aulacidae and one Evaniidae), I confirm the monophyly of Gasteruptiinae and Gasteruption and recognize three exclusively Neotropical small genera: Plutofoenus Kieffer (revalidated) (southern South America), Spinolafoenus Macedo n. gen. (Chile) and Trilobitofoenus Macedo n. gen. (Central and South America). Gasteruption, supported by four synapomorphies, remains the most speciose genus in the subfamily. The four Gasteruptiinae genera are keyed and described. Seven species are keyed and described or redescribed: Plutofoenus chaeturus (Schletterer) n. comb., P. edwardsi Turner, P. paraguayensis (Schrottky), Spinolafoenus ruficornis (Spinola) n. comb., Trilobitofoenus alvarengai Macedo n. sp., T. plaumanni Macedo n. sp. and T. sericeus (Cameron) n. comb. (lectotype designated).

EULAR/PRINTO/PRES criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura, childhood polyarteritis nodosa, childhood Wegener granulomatosis and childhood Takayasu arteritis: Ankara 2008. Part II: Final classification criteria

Objectives To validate the previously proposed classification criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP), childhood polyarteritis nodosa (c-PAN), c-Wegener granulomatosis (c-WG) and c-Takayasu arteritis (c-TA). Methods Step 1: retrospective/prospective webdata collection for children with HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with age at diagnosis <= 18 years. Step 2: blinded classification by consensus panel of a representative sample of 280 cases. Step 3: statistical (sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve and.-agreement) and nominal group technique consensus evaluations. Results 827 patients with HSP, 150 with c-PAN, 60 with c-WG, 87 with c-TA and 52 with c-other were compared with each other. A patient was classified as HSP in the presence of purpura or petechiae (mandatory) with lower limb predominance plus one of four criteria: (1) abdominal pain; (2) histopathology (IgA); (3) arthritis or arthralgia; (4) renal involvement. Classification of c-PAN required a systemic inflammatory disease with evidence of necrotising vasculitis OR angiographic abnormalities of medium-/small-sized arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) skin involvement; (2) myalgia/muscle tenderness; (3) hypertension; (4) peripheral neuropathy; (5) renal involvement. Classification of c-WG required three of six criteria: (1) histopathological evidence of granulomatous inflammation; (2) upper airway involvement; (3) laryngo-tracheo-bronchial involvement; (4) pulmonary involvement (x-ray/CT); (5) antineutrophilic cytoplasmic antibody positivity; (6) renal involvement. Classification of c-TA required typical angiographic abnormalities of the aorta or its main branches and pulmonary arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) pulse deficit or claudication; (2) blood pressure discrepancy in any limb; (3) bruits; (4) hypertension; (5) elevated acute phase reactant. Conclusion European League Against Rheumatism/Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation/Paediatric Rheumatology European Society propose validated classification criteria for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with high sensitivity/specificity.

Antinociception induced by epidural motor cortex stimulation in naive conscious rats is mediated by the opioid system

Epidural motor cortex stimulation (MCS) has been used for treating patients with neuropathic pain resistant to other therapeutic approaches. Experimental evidence suggests that the motor cortex is also involved in the modulation of normal nociceptive response, but the underlying mechanisms of pain control have not been clarified yet. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of epidural electrical MCS on the nociceptive threshold of naive rats. Electrodes were placed on epidural motor cortex, over the hind paw area, according to the functional mapping accomplished in this study. Nociceptive threshold and general activity were evaluated under 15-min electrical stimulating sessions. When rats were evaluated by the paw pressure test, MCS induced selective antinociception in the paw contralateral to the stimulated cortex, but no changes were noticed in the ipsilateral paw. When the nociceptive test was repeated 15 min after cessation of electrical stimulation, the nociceptive threshold returned to basal levels. On the other hand, no changes in the nociceptive threshold were observed in rats evaluated by the tail-flick test. Additionally, no behavioral or motor impairment were noticed in the course of stimulation session at the open-field test. Stimulation of posterior parietal or somatosensory cortices did not elicit any changes in the general activity or nociceptive response. Opioid receptors blockade by naloxone abolished the increase in nociceptive threshold induced by MCS. Data shown herein demonstrate that epidural electrical MCS elicits a substantial and selective antinociceptive effect, which is mediated by opioids. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.